Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The European Union announced plans to replace its $44.10‑per‑barrel Russian oil price cap with a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude, pending member‑state approval. The ban would block hull, machinery, and insurance services, pushing Russia toward the uninsured shadow fleet and raising pollution‑risk concerns. Simultaneously, a new US‑India trade agreement will require India to halt Russian oil imports in exchange for reduced US tariffs, redirecting its demand to the Middle East, the United States and Venezuela. The combined moves threaten Russian export volumes while reshaping global tanker utilization.
Professor Eric Hilt’s 2026 paper traces the evolution of financial crises over two centuries, highlighting how regulatory regimes and banking structures shaped their frequency and character. Early crises were often sparked by banking panics, while the post‑World War II regulatory era...
The latest "Talk Your Book" episode breaks down the three A’s shaping the U.S. economy—asset prices, artificial intelligence, and the affluent consumer. It highlights a widening market breadth and offers a framework for valuing the world’s largest firms. The discussion...
Altona Rare Earths announced that the U.S. Trade & Development Agency will support its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique, prompting a 76% surge in the company's London‑listed shares. The backing aims to map technical and financial routes for extracting rare‑earth...
The episode explains that China’s official macro debt ratio hit a record 302.3% of GDP in 2025, driven primarily by government borrowing while household and private company debt fell. It highlights the real‑estate crisis as the catalyst that halted household...
In this episode J. William DeMarco argues that recent Chinese military activities around Taiwan are less about rehearsing an invasion and more about a strategy of paralysis—using encirclement, law‑enforcement vessels, and limited rocket fire to create economic and political pressure...
The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, enacted in 2021, created a rebuttable presumption that Xinjiang‑origin goods are barred from the U.S. market. U.S. Customs data show a sharp drop in UFLPA‑related detentions, from roughly $1.58 billion in 2023 and $1.40 billion in...
The episode breaks down the ASEAN Inc. portfolio—a $1 million, equally weighted allocation across seven U.S.-listed ETFs covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and a regional ASEAN‑40 fund—and shows it delivered a 21.3% annualized total return through February 2026, beating...
Shippers are grappling with mixed signals from carriers about returning to the Suez Canal route. Maersk said peace in the Middle East is required, yet announced two services will resume via the Red Sea with military escort. CMA CGM has shifted...
Chinese electric‑vehicle makers are eyeing Canada as a strategic foothold into North America, with a government‑approved quota of 49,000 units annually – roughly 3.8% of the market. BYD is projected to dominate the allocation, taking about 30% of the quota,...
The episode dissects Thailand’s surprise February 8, 2026 election, where Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party captured nearly 200 seats, shifting the country’s foreign policy toward deeper engagement with China while prompting a tougher U.S. response. It highlights the immediate implications for...
In this 17‑minute episode, RANE’s South Asia analyst Misha Iqbal breaks down the key actors and forces shaping Bangladesh’s upcoming election—the first since the 2024 pro‑democracy uprising that removed Sheikh Hasina from power. Iqbal outlines the political landscape, including emerging...
Turkey recorded a historic tourism peak in 2025, welcoming roughly 63.9 million visitors and generating $65.2 billion in revenue. Visitor numbers rose 2.7% year‑over‑year, while tourism earnings climbed 6.8%, surpassing government targets. The market mix featured 52.8 million foreign tourists and 11.1 million Turkish...
President Donald Trump has turned to senior military officials to spearhead high‑stakes diplomatic talks on Iran’s nuclear program and the Russia‑Ukraine war. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, joined indirect Iran negotiations in Oman, while Army Secretary Dan...
The latest Elliott Wave analysis notes that EUR/USD slipped during the first week of February 2026, testing the 1.1800 support zone. While the pair remains above this level, bullish sentiment persists, suggesting the wave count may still be in an...
In this week’s Oil Context Weekly, the host reviews flat crude prices slipping below $68 a barrel after geopolitical chatter between the U.S. and Iran, while noting a modestly backwardated term structure with a "smiley‑faced" futures curve extending to 2027....
In this episode, the host examines the current state of China's grain market, focusing on its ability to meet President Trump's promised soybean purchases of 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) and the anticipated 25 million metric tons of new crop. The...
In this First Friday episode, host Paula Pant reviews the economic landscape of January 2026, highlighting a 2% S&P 500 pullback, a near‑10% Bitcoin drop, and a cooling labor market with job openings falling to 7.6 million. She discusses the surprise nomination of...
The FX team discusses a variety of topics: the euro bloc/ APAC FX rotation, RBA hawkish pivot, scenarios around upcoming JP elections, the dovish BoE surprise and recent US data. This podcast was recorded on 06 February 2026. This communication is...
The U.S. Geological Survey’s 2026 mineral commodities summary shows the United States now imports 100% of 16 of the 90 non‑fuel minerals it tracks, up from 15 a year earlier, and relies on foreign sources for more than half of...
Iran’s inflation, hovering around 20% and spiking above 40% during sanctions, has become a structural feature of its macro‑economy. The country’s fragmented exchange‑rate system, fiscal deficits financed by the central bank, and dominant state‑linked enterprises perpetuate price pressures. Analysts argue...
Heliostar Metals announced the first gold pour from its newly restarted San Agustin mine in Durango, marking its second operating asset after La Colorada. The open‑pit mine is projected to deliver roughly 45,000 ounces of gold from existing reserves, prompting...
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia, and Khagendra Gupta dissect the February policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, highlighting the limited rate‑differential (or "skinny carry") in the Eurozone and...
DPM Metals announced a 20% increase in measured and indicated resources at its Chelopech gold‑copper mine, boosting total reserves to 1.6 million ounces of gold and 6.23 million ounces of silver. The update extends the mine’s projected life to ten years, up...
The Friday Reading List for February 6, 2026 surveys a wave of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on the United States' renewed pressure on Cuba, shifting dynamics in Brazil, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and the fallout from...
In his second term, President Donald Trump pushed average U.S. import tariffs to about 18%, the highest level since the Great Depression. The higher duties widened the trade deficit and contributed to persistent inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut...
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...
Former Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg pursued a $260 billion merger with Rio Tinto that could have reshaped the mining sector. Talks collapsed within 24 hours after Rio announced it would not pursue a deal that failed to deliver sufficient shareholder value....
The FAO Food Price Index slipped to 123.9 points in January, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline and a 0.4% drop from December. Prices fell sharply for dairy (‑5%) and sugar (‑1%), while the cereal price index edged up 0.2%...
India’s 2026‑27 Union Budget allocates a record ₹7.85 trillion (≈$87 billion) to defence, a 15 percent rise over the previous year. The surge is driven by Operation Sindoor, a series of retaliatory air strikes that heightened focus on modernisation. Capital outlay jumps to ₹2.31 trillion,...
The article revisits the classic small‑country tariff model, contrasting it with the large‑country framework that allows an importer to affect world prices. It explains how a sufficiently small tariff could improve a large importer’s terms of trade, creating an "optimal...
Germany is spearheading a “two‑speed” European Union defence initiative by forming an E6 group of the bloc’s six largest economies – Germany, France, Poland, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. The format aims to bypass consensus‑driven decision‑making to accelerate defence investment,...
France is redirecting its African security policy from the faltering Sahel model to a partnership with Kenya, formalized through the first France‑Kenya Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA). The DCA shifts focus to joint training, maritime security, intelligence sharing, and peace‑support operations,...
The UK‑China Financial Working Group held its inaugural meeting on 31 January 2026 in Beijing, bringing together senior officials from HM Treasury, the Bank of England, the PRA, the FCA and their Chinese counterparts from the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry...
Haropa Port, Zhejiang Provincial Seaport Group, Bureau Veritas, MSC and TiL signed an agreement in Shanghai to launch the first green shipping corridor between France’s Haropa Port and China’s Ningbo Zhoushan Port. The corridor aligns with IMO’s 2050 carbon‑neutral target...
International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI) and PSA International’s joint venture, Sociedad Puerto Industrial de Aguadulce, has received two super post‑Panamax quay cranes and three hybrid rubber‑tired gantry (RTG) cranes for the Aguadulce terminal in Buenaventura, Colombia. The quay cranes can...
China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) inaugurated a representative office in Doha, managed by its subsidiary China Shipbuilding Trading (CSTC). The office, staffed with marketing, technical and service experts from Hudong‑Zhonghua Shipbuilding and CSSC Power/WinGD, is positioned as a hub for...
Everllence secured its 2,000th dual‑fuel two‑stroke engine contract, a deal placed by Cosco Shipping Lines for a 12‑ship order of 18,000‑TEU container vessels built at Jiangnan Shipyard in China. The order features the B&W 8G95ME‑GI Mk. 10.5 engine, which incorporates exhaust‑gas recirculation and...
Kongsberg Maritime secured a contract to design and equip four 15,600 dwt handy‑size tankers for Transpetro, Brazil’s Petrobras transport arm. The vessels will be constructed at Consórcio Marenova, a joint venture between Ecovix and MacLaren, and are engineered for future methanol...
U.S. authorities have seized at least seven tankers linked to Venezuela’s shadow fleet, part of a broader push to disrupt illicit oil flows from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. The seizures rely on civil forfeiture statutes rather than wartime prize law,...
European investors hold roughly $8 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, a quarter of the Treasury market, and recent geopolitical friction with the Trump administration has sparked talk of using those holdings as leverage. A Danish pension fund’s $100 million Treasury sell‑off highlighted...
United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI) is urging the United States and Malaysia to crack down on ship‑to‑ship (STS) transfers of sanctioned Iranian crude off Malaysia’s East Outer Port Limits. UANI identified about 60 dark‑fleet tankers waiting for STS operations,...
European Union member states have reached a breakthrough agreement to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion support package for 2026‑2027, of which roughly €60 billion is allocated to military aid and €30 billion to budget stabilization and reforms. The financing will be sourced...
In this brief episode, ANZ Research analysts discuss the latest data showing a rise in New Zealand employment, highlighting the sectors driving the growth and the implications for wage pressure and inflation. They note that the job market is tightening, with...
Manufacturers that fled China during the 2018 US trade war are now reversing course, with up to half of re‑shored production expected to return to Chinese factories. Logistics bottlenecks and limited capacity in Southeast Asian ports are prompting exporters of...
A CE Delft study commissioned by Nabu reveals a compatibility issue between on‑shore power supply (OPS) and LNG‑powered vessels. Ships with membrane or Type B tanks, which have lower pressure tolerance, may struggle to manage boil‑off gas (BOG) when connected to...
China retained its shipbuilding leadership in 2025, delivering 53.69 million deadweight tonnes—a 11.4% increase year‑on‑year—and capturing 56.1% of global output. New orders fell 4.6% to 107.82 million dwt but still accounted for 69% of worldwide demand, while the order backlog surged 31.5%...
Wärtsilä will invest roughly €140 million to expand its Sustainable Technology Hub in Vaasa, boosting production capacity by 35% and adding an 11,000 sq m extension. The upgraded facility, slated for completion in Q1 2028, supports the company’s record‑high 2025 operating profit of €833 million...
In this episode LoRosha analyzes the February 4 Asian market session, highlighting a 1.57% rise in the KOSPI driven by Samsung Electronics breaking the 169,000 KRW mark and reaching a $720 billion market cap. He argues that despite heavy foreign net...
The article argues that the United States now enjoys a unique, uncontested sphere of influence across the Western Hemisphere, anchored by overwhelming military spending and deep economic integration. By contrast, China and Russia lack the capacity to establish comparable regional...
