Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
United States Antimony and Americas Gold have formed a 51-49 joint venture to construct a hydrometallurgical processing plant in Idaho’s Silver Valley. The facility will treat antimony feed from Americas Gold’s Galena complex and could handle additional sources, aiming to improve recoveries and lower costs. Completion is targeted within 18 months, with both partners contributing capital proportionate to ownership. The project aligns with Washington’s push to secure a domestic critical‑minerals supply chain and lessen reliance on China.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded First Quantum Minerals' credit outlook to positive, citing tangible progress toward restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine. The agency now expects the mine to resume operations in the first half of 2026, with a production ramp‑up later...
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted Brazil's new trade agreement with China that will use their own currencies instead of the U.S. dollar, signaling a shift toward a secondary, dollar‑independent global economy. He warned that as more nations transact...
In this episode the host examines prediction‑market odds for Latin American leaders being ousted before the end of 2026, using data from Kalshi and Polymarket. He highlights Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador as the most volatile cases, while noting that...
The U.S. dollar stayed firm in early trade despite flat retail sales, while the 10‑year Treasury yield slipped back below 4.2%. Market participants are largely ignoring the consumption miss, focusing instead on tomorrow’s delayed non‑farm payrolls as the primary driver...
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that arms exports generated roughly $15 billion in foreign‑exchange earnings in 2025 and that more than 340 cooperation projects are slated for 2026‑2028. Independent analysts caution that Russia’s defence‑sector data are opaque, making the figure difficult...
Spot rates on Pacific container lanes have slumped ahead of the annual contract season, with eastbound transpacific prices to the U.S. West Coast falling below $1,700 per FEU and some offers as low as $1,400. The slowdown follows a delayed...
A deep slump in diamond prices is forcing Botswana, the world’s top diamond producer by value, to broaden its mining portfolio. The government announced plans to explore copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, noting that only about 30% of its...
High‑level US‑China trade talks are being staged ahead of President Donald Trump’s April summit with Xi Jinping, as Treasury officials led by Scott Bessent met Vice‑Premier He Lifeng in Beijing. The delegations aim to keep the fragile tariff truce intact...
Indonesia, home to one of the world’s largest unbanked populations, is accelerating digital finance to boost inclusion. The Financial Services Authority outlined three policy priorities—sector resilience, a contributive ecosystem, and sustainable finance—to guide the effort. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI)...
The episode reviews the S&P 500’s pause just short of record highs as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data, starting with retail sales. It highlights that technology stocks led the recent rally, buoyed by AI news from OpenAI, and that...
Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara is pursuing Chinese partnerships to accelerate waste‑to‑energy, smart‑grid and data‑centre projects, aiming to exceed European Union environmental standards. The fund highlighted the role of patient capital at the China Conference and the World Economic Forum,...
In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking...
The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low, which is below its level 2 weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's...
Mexico’s inflation rate is ON TARGET at 3.65%/yr Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 7.91%/yr, WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent with Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/4w05Yr94Mz
BP reported 2025 earnings of $7.5 bn, a 15% drop from the previous year, as crude prices fell roughly 20%. The oil major lifted its cost‑saving goal to $5.5‑$6.5 bn by the end of 2027, up from a $5 bn ceiling, and halted...
Bad retail sales, falling wage growth and now Hassett and Navarro comments implying bad NFP tomorrow...
"The US stock market, while it looks strong, is actually much weaker than almost any other industrialized country.... So while we're doing well… everyone else is doing even better." https://t.co/7KavXe5LXh
An Atlantic Council survey of 447 experts from 72 nations paints a bleak picture of the world in 2036. Most respondents expect China to become the top economic power, while the United States retains military superiority, creating a bipolar or...
Greenback Consolidates after Yesterday's Shellacking: After yesterday’s sharp losses, the US dollar is mostly consolidating with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception. The unexpected post-election gains have been extended… https://t.co/s4awtQJ5o7 https://t.co/Xlf89Ydd1E
That little market freakout is a real mechanism: if AI makes it cheap to do what a vendor used to sell you, the vendor’s future profits fall—even as the rest of us get more productive. https://t.co/HE7npk5km7
Cosco Shipping Car Carriers has launched a monthly ro‑ro liner linking the Beibu Gulf ports of Qinzhou and Nansha with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The service, operated by the vessel Cosco Shengshi, will transport roughly 2,000 commercial vehicles...
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
U.S. commercial real‑estate lending jumped 30% in Q4 2025, driven largely by banks as interest‑rate volatility eased. Originations rose 25% sequentially, with office loans nearly doubling year‑over‑year and overall 2025 originations up 40% from 2024. Depository institutions led the surge,...
France’s finance minister Roland Lescure warned against a blanket 30% tariff on Chinese imports, urging a targeted approach instead. A government planning commission has recommended a sweeping duty or a euro‑yuan depreciation to shield European industry. Lescure highlighted China’s unsustainable...
ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos told Econostream that inflation has fallen to 1.7% headline and core inflation is edging toward the 2% target, while the euro‑area economy is proving more resilient than expected. He highlighted downside risks from geopolitical flashpoints and...
Australian legume exporters posted a dramatic December surge, shipping 588,122 tonnes of chickpeas and 410,805 tonnes of lentils, up 57% and more than double respectively from November. India dominated demand, taking 63% of chickpeas and 39% of lentils, while Bangladesh and Pakistan...
The episode examines how China’s digital yuan (e‑yuan) reshapes the internationalization of the renminbi by focusing on usage rather than ownership. It explains that traditional barriers were convertibility and capital controls, which limited the ability to sell or move RMB...
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) posted a 5.56% 30‑day yield and outperformed both its benchmark and U.S. Treasuries in January 2026, driven by strong local‑currency exposure and carry. The fund’s portfolio now holds 48% hard‑currency sovereigns, with notable additions...
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
Chinese energy‑storage giants are signing multi‑GWh deals worldwide, signalling a rapid international expansion in 2026. Cornex will deliver 5.5 GWh to Saudi Arabia, while CATL, together with Schroders Greencoat and Lochpine Capital, targets up to 10 GWh of European battery‑storage projects. Tianneng...
Stock markets may sour if this week’s US economic data casts doubt on Fed rate cut speculation. #stockmarkets #Fed #Economy #InterestRates #USD #Macro #trading https://t.co/ZEfchApMC0
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These...
AI anxiety often misses the key margin: it’s not “humans vs machines,” it’s “humans who use machines vs humans who don’t.” The tech shifts who’s productive—and who gets paid. Remember, you don't need to outrun the bear. https://t.co/jULdqTdCrU
US grain storage capacity expanded steadily from 2000 to 2019, adding roughly 350 million bushels per year, but growth has essentially stopped after 2020. Meanwhile, crop production kept rising, pushing the surplus capacity margin down to just 5 % in 2025. On‑farm...
Elevra Lithium has signed a non‑binding MOU with Canada’s Mangrove Lithium to off‑take up to 144,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year from the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec. The supply would begin in 2028, scaling to full...
The Trump administration’s 2025 trade strategy oscillated between aggressive, unpredictable tariff threats and a quieter push for long‑standing trade objectives. While high tariffs and threats destabilized markets, the administration began issuing exemptions and rolled back many threats, stabilizing tariff levels...
The $DXY has dropped sharply today. A big picture look at the trade-weighted Dollar index vs an equally-weighted variant: https://t.co/sqTvcv4ihu
Gold is back above $5,000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy, but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past 20 years, policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes...
Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, called a snap election that delivered a historic super‑majority for the Liberal Democratic Party, winning 316 of 465 lower‑house seats. The result gives the LDP unprecedented legislative power to push Takaichi’s agenda without...
Employment in S&P 500 companies is 18% of total US employment, but 35 cents of every dollar that goes into the SPX goes to 7 companies. This is a market structure problem and a major issue with our 401k system.
Imported solar panels are no longer subject to Section 201 tariffs after they expired on February 6, 2026, ending an eight‑year protection regime that began under the Trump administration. The tariffs, which started at 30 % and gradually declined to 14 % by 2025, were...
The average U.S. homeowner now stays in a property for 8.6 years, the longest stretch since the early 2000s. Rising home prices and persistently high mortgage rates are forcing owners to hold onto homes longer, while the share of Americans...
Hapag‑Lloyd posted a Q4 2025 EBIT of $200 million, a 75% drop from the same quarter a year earlier, yet still managed a full‑year profit of $1.1 billion despite plunging spot rates. Container volumes rose modestly, adding 200,000 TEU in Q4 and...
In a February 9, 2026 speech to the European Parliament, ECB President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed the central bank’s independence while emphasizing its accountability to elected officials. She reported that headline inflation has fallen to 1.7% in January and is expected...
The episode examines the interim U.S.-India trade deal announced in February 2026, which cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% and obliges India to cease Russian oil imports in favor of U.S. energy supplies. It traces the...
The episode examines the increasingly fraught relationship between Mexico’s President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum and former U.S. President Donald Trump, focusing on five intersecting issues: Mexico’s humanitarian aid and oil shipments to Cuba, alleged ties between Venezuela’s Maduro regime and Mexico’s Morena...
In April 2025 President Trump issued an executive order authorizing U.S. companies to mine critical minerals in international waters, directly contravening the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The move aims to secure rare‑earth supplies amid...
