Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on NPR on Feb. 11 to discuss the Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran. He outlined the limited progress of back‑channel talks aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement and highlighted internal resistance within the White House. Kroenig warned that any deal would require substantial sanctions relief and coordination with regional allies. The interview underscored the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy toward Tehran as Congress ramps up oversight.
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
Retail finance leaders are grappling with volatile interest rates, persistent inflation, and a weakening dollar, which together strain cash flow and margin stability. To survive, finance teams must shift from reactive bookkeeping to proactive portfolio‑management tactics, using scenario modeling and...
Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak, so this was a solid beat, yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch...
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...
China has invoked its Export Control Law to ban dual‑use exports to Japan and tighten rare‑earth licensing, signaling a new escalation in its diplomatic dispute with Tokyo. The move follows a broader trend of Beijing building offensive economic statecraft tools,...
In this episode, Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments discuss the Bloomberg Intelligence 1Q26 Investor Survey, highlighting the continued resilience of credit and high‑yield markets despite recent tariff shocks and rate volatility. They examine why...
A growing chorus of workers, researchers, and public figures warn that artificial intelligence could permanently eliminate millions of jobs. MIT researchers estimate current AI systems can automate tasks performed by over 20 million American workers, roughly 12 % of the labor force,...
Oatly has lost a UK Supreme Court ruling that bars the company from trademarking or using the phrase “post‑milk generation” in its marketing, after Dairy UK argued that the term “milk” should be reserved for animal‑derived products. The court affirmed earlier...
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Russian Duma that only U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed India will cease buying Russian oil, and no Indian official has made such a statement. Lavrov highlighted India’s new BRICS chairmanship and its focus...
India has urged its state‑owned refiners to give priority to crude from the United States and Venezuela as part of a broader effort to diversify supplies and reduce reliance on Russian oil. The government’s suggestion applies to spot‑market tenders for...
New ONS data shows that 32.7% of UK retailers report rising export costs since Brexit, while US tariff changes further strain margins. Export volumes fell for 40.6% of retailers in December, and paperwork burdens rose for over a quarter of...
The U.S. Treasury issued a general license for Venezuelan oil and gas exploration that explicitly excludes Russian and Chinese entities, tightening restrictions on Moscow’s energy interests. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will seek clarification from Washington to protect its substantial...
Chinese local governments announced a suite of stimulus measures ahead of the longest Lunar New Year break, extending the holiday to nine days. The central government allocated 2.05 billion yuan in vouchers, red‑envelopes and subsidies to directly benefit consumers. January's consumer...
Indonesia ordered the world’s largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay, to cut its ore quota from 42 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes for 2024, aiming to tighten global supply. The LME nickel price rose 2 percent to $17,835 a tonne, extending a rally of...
The episode traces how China transformed from a post‑1949 poverty-stricken nation into the world’s dominant metals and minerals superpower through a deliberate, century‑long strategy that placed mining, processing, and heavy industry at the core of national sovereignty. It outlines three...
https://t.co/k2T7oPbMh8 In an interview with CNBC on Monday (February 9, 2026), Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, advised markets to expect "slightly smaller job numbers" in the coming months. These remarks, have led many to speculate that the January...
Moldova announced its formal exit from the Commonwealth of Independent States, signaling a decisive break from a key Russian‑linked institution. At the same time, Chişinău is accelerating its integration with the European Union under President Maia Sandu’s pro‑Western agenda. Public...
Consumer confidence has fallen to a decade low, prompting a trade‑down in spending as Americans cut big‑ticket indulgences and shift toward essentials. Even high‑income households are frequenting discount retailers like Walmart and Costco, reflecting broader budget pressure. Ulta Beauty’s hybrid...
The episode examines the current economic turbulence on Main Street, highlighting widespread layoffs and soft retail sales, while contrasting this with TSMC's explosive growth in the tech sector. It also explores the impact of a new AI-driven tax‑management tool that...
Petrol prices in Northern Ireland have fallen to 124.2 pence per litre, the lowest level in five years, while diesel holds steady at 131.9 pence. The decline follows a global oil oversupply and easing geopolitical tensions after the 2022 price spike triggered...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...
The episode examines the growing divergence between China’s onshore stock markets and Hong Kong’s offshore market, arguing that this split reflects a deepening mistrust of Xi Jinping’s political control over finance. While mainland indices appear stable, the offshore market is...
First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time, private payrolls surging, UR down. The economy is re-accelerating https://t.co/sbUBFBA4SA
The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA
The India‑Chile free trade negotiations are moving toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement that explicitly includes critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and cobalt. Chile’s abundant reserves could supply India’s “Make in India” and clean‑energy ambitions, while recent moves by...
#NKWatch🇰🇵: Today, I measure North Korea’s inflation at 74.6%/yr. This makes North Korea the WORLD'S THIRD-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG UN = KILLING NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY. https://t.co/iTKJhtxWvr
Jan jobs data better than expected and benchmark revision more or less in line. Unemployment rate ticks lower. $USD jump sold into quickly. Mkt still pricing in around two cuts this year.
In this episode Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati examines how the Trump administration’s diplomatic interventions in 2025‑2026 produced ceasefires across Gaza, the Israel‑Iran clash, India‑Pakistan tensions, the Thailand‑Cambodia border dispute, and Ukraine‑Russia, but stopped short of achieving lasting political settlements. The host...
Payrolls rose a very healthy +130k in January, and unemployment fell a tick to 4.3 percent. Revisions subtracted -17k from the past two months, so not much there. This is the healthiest jobs report we've seen in a while. Keep your fingers...
Glad to welcome @BIS_org General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos back to the @ecb today. We had a good discussion on the latest economic developments. https://t.co/NiOrDgbMRV
China’s central bank set the yuan’s daily fixing at 6.9438 per dollar, the strongest level in 33 months, as the currency continued to appreciate. Offshore trading pushed the yuan to 6.909 per dollar, reflecting a broader rotation out of US...
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump’s blockade, Cuba can no longer supply jet fuel to international airlines. Stay tuned. https://t.co/I5GxUM3wGq
“I think Greenland was a wake-up call. There is more talk [in Brussels] about replacing one dependency with another.” This is what I told the Wall Street Journal about Europe’s increasing dependence on US LNG following the end of Russian...
South Korean carrier HMM posted a Q4 2025 net profit of KRW 364 billion, a 59.9% plunge from the prior period, while revenues fell 14.2% to KRW 2.71 trillion. The full‑year results showed a 50.3% profit drop to KRW 1.88 trillion as container freight rates slumped 49%...
$USD is soft ahead of the delayed jobs report. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday, but the dramatic short squeeze of $JPY continued. WTI is up ~2% as the US-Iran confrontation seems near a climax. ...
A new report shows that global electricity demand will increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% between 2026 and 2030. Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of additional electricity consumption through 2030. More here: https://t.co/ZtTGSlWOMx https://t.co/dw82OPRKGw
French wine and spirit exporters recorded their steepest decline since the pandemic, with total sales falling 7.9% to €14.3 billion in 2025. Wine shipments slipped 4.1% while spirits plunged 17.4%, driven by a 23.8% collapse in cognac exports. The downturn reflects...
India’s government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap for banks from 20% to 49%. SMART MOVE. MORE FDI = MORE BANK CAPITAL = MORE LENDING CAPACITY https://t.co/agaPK9vbzO
Nigeria’s inflation rate is DOUBLE NGA’s inflation target at 15.29%/yr. Nigeria’s money supply is growing at 15.19%/yr, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~11.83%-14.83%/yr, a rate consistent with Nigeria’s 6%-9%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/367h7H4ytf
Recent research by Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott shows that the Federal Reserve’s decentralized structure generated fresh banking‑policy ideas in the 1950s and 1960s. In response to industry consolidation and legal reforms, the Board and regional Reserve Banks hired industrial‑organization...
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...
SCOOP: Detroit Billionaire Owner of Ambassador Bridge Lobbied Administration, Met With Howard Lutnick Monday, Hours Before Trump Lambasted New Detroit-Michigan Gordie Howe Bridge w/ @tylerpager #cdnpoli https://t.co/A1JpN7GgU0
The NRF and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker predicts U.S. container imports will fall in the first half of 2026, with a 2 percent year‑over‑year decline to 12.27 million TEUs. Full‑year volume is projected at 25.4 million TEUs, a 0.4 percent drop from 2024....
A dirty little secret that the Russiaphobes in London keep under the rug: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS OUTPACING THE UK’S. SANCTIONS = BACKFIRE = RARELY WORK. https://t.co/FLcUb0QXGw
The article revisits Keynes’s beauty‑contest analogy, arguing that human psychology still drives markets, but the information age has accelerated opinion‑chasing. It uses the recent silver frenzy—spurred by geopolitical tension, AI‑related demand, and massive leverage—to illustrate how social media and bots...
