Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Brazil Raises Selic to 14.75% as Inflation Stalls at 4.1% in March
Brazil's central bank lifted the benchmark Selic rate to 14.75%, the highest level since 2006, after the IPCA consumer price index posted a 4.14% year‑over‑year increase in March 2026. The move targets stubborn services inflation and sharp spikes in transport and food prices, underscoring the pressure on emerging‑market monetary policy.
Azerbaijan Boosts Gas Exports to Europe and Turkey Amid Rising Oil Prices
Azerbaijan increased its gas exports to Georgia by more than 14% and to Turkey by over 7% in the first quarter of 2026, while SOCAR reported higher oil and gas output. The surge comes as oil prices jump following the...
US Navy Starts Blockade of Iranian Ports Amid Trump-Pope Clash Over Iran War
The US Navy launched a blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas on Monday, a step down from President Donald Trump's earlier vow to seal the Strait of Hormuz. Trump simultaneously blasted Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social, accusing...
Dependence Without Trust: The Drivers of Pakistan-UAE Divergence
Pakistan’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates has unraveled despite a decade‑long flow of Emirati financial lifelines. The UAE deposited more than $8 billion in Pakistan’s central bank between 2018 and 2026, yet strategic mistrust grew as Islamabad deepened its defence...
US Treasury Yields Rise to 4.33% as Dollar Surges After US‑Iran Talks Collapse
The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks and President Trump's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz sent the dollar higher and triggered a safe‑haven rally in bonds. US 10‑year Treasury yields jumped 2 basis points to 4.33%, while European sovereign...
US‑Iran Talks Collapse Triggers European Market Drop, Threatening US Equity Sentiment
European markets are set to open sharply lower after US‑Iran peace negotiations fell apart and President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical shock is expected to spill over into US equity markets, pressuring risk‑on...
Vietnam Cuts Fuel Taxes to Zero Through June, Aiming to Spur Demand Amid Global Oil Price Surge
Vietnam's National Assembly approved a resolution that removes all taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel from April 16 through June 30. The move, worth roughly 16.8% of fuel base prices, is designed to temper inflation and support growth as...
Zambia Secures Strategic Partnership in Jiangsu to Boost Chinese Investment
The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) has signed a strategic partnership with the Jiangsu Industrial Cooperation Association, gaining free office space and staffing support for a new representative office in Nanjing. The deal taps into Jiangsu’s network of over 5,000 enterprises,...
T Rowe Price: How Investors Can Capitalise on China’s Next Expansion
T Rowe Price argues that despite recent sell‑offs in large‑cap Chinese tech stocks, the medium‑ to long‑term investment case for China remains intact. The firm highlights a projected 5% annual GDP growth by 2025, renewed policy support for infrastructure, and consumer demand...
Don’t Mention the Climate: Trump Creates ‘Beyond Absurd’ Situation at Global Finance Talks
At the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the United States, led by President Donald Trump, is pressuring the institutions to mute climate‑change language despite an ongoing oil crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the World Bank...
Real GDP Growth by State: Fourth Quarter 2025
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all 50 states, annualized for the fourth quarter of 2025. The mean annualized growth was 1.8 percent, with the median state, New Jersey, matching that figure. South Carolina posted the fastest growth...
Middle East Tensions Trump Economic Data, Fueling Oil Surge
🚨 Markets on edge as US–Iran tensions escalate and risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade sends oil higher and stocks lower. Here’s my take on it all: Middle East headlines now matter more than economic data. Higher gas prices could...
2026 Oil Demand Rises 1.4 Mb/D
"In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia. On a quarterly basis, the global oil demand in 2026...
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Decline Deepens as U.S. Blockade Adds Pressure to Global Supply Chains
The United States will enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports, formalizing a trend that began in late February when vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply declined. Daily transits have dropped from roughly 120‑135 ships to about 40,...
Morning Reads
U.S. fertility has slipped to a historic low of 53 births per 1,000 women, yielding only about 3.6 million babies in 2025. The rate is roughly 20% lower than it was twenty years ago, and half of American women now reach...
With Orban Gone, China Has Lost Its Best Friend in the EU
Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary’s election removes the EU’s most vocal pro‑Beijing ally. Under Orban, Budapest routinely blocked EU statements on human‑rights abuses, Hong Kong and Taiwan, turning political support into China’s primary leverage in Europe. The incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, has...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Futures slipped 6 basis points while crude jumped 8% after President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening geopolitical risk. Asian equity markets were mixed, with Japan, Korea and Hong Kong indices down and China’s Shanghai...
Tokayev, Iran, and the Erosion of Kazakhstan’s Multi-Vector Diplomacy
Kazakhstan’s long‑standing multi‑vector foreign policy is being tested by the 2026 Iran conflict. President Tokayev offered strong diplomatic support to Gulf monarchies while keeping a cautious tone toward Iran, revealing selective alignment. The asymmetry signals a tilt toward U.S.-backed initiatives...
Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade, Oil Jumps 7%
Trump says the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins at 10AM ET Oil already up 7% and we haven't even started. I'm watching response from China 🇨🇳 How much pain are you pricing in for stocks today? 👇 $CL $USO...
Predictably Adverse Market Reaction to Speedy End and Failure of Mediated U.S./Iranian Peace Talks
U.S. Vice President Vance ended a 21‑hour Iran peace session, after which President Trump signaled a full Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 50 % tariff on nations aiding Iran, especially China. The abrupt diplomatic failure sent West Texas Intermediate crude...
War in Iran: Fertilizer Sector Warns of Lasting Supply Risk
A two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire will temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade and 20% of natural‑gas flows. The closure has already forced several Gulf fertilizer plants offline, tightening worldwide supply and...
Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to All-Time Low on War Worries
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.6 in early April, an all‑time low and a 10.7‑point drop from March, far below analysts’ forecast of 52. The decline reflects heightened anxiety over the Iran conflict and rising energy...
Trump Threatens Hormuz Blockade as FMC Eyes Probe Into Carrier Surcharges
Donald Trump announced a potential naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening geopolitical risk for Gulf shipping. The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) responded by warning shippers it is monitoring carrier war‑risk surcharges and may launch a probe for...
Customs Sets up Refund Process for Trump’s Unlawful Global Tariffs
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that on April 20 2026 it will roll out the first phase of its Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) tool within the ACE Portal to handle refunds of the global tariffs imposed by former...
The End of Civilization
Geopolitical tension over Iran escalated, with the U.S. threatening a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and discussing a temporary cease‑fire. Executives from JPMorgan, Walmart and other retailers note that U.S. consumers continue to spend, showing resilience despite higher...
Rising Price Risks Boost Case for Bond Ladder ETFs
Rising inflation risk, highlighted by February's CPI showing a 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annual increase, is prompting investors to seek more resilient income strategies. Bond ladder exchange‑traded funds, especially those that distribute principal, are positioned as a hedge against sticky...
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
The Iran war has slashed Persian Gulf oil exports to roughly 10‑12 million barrels per day, creating a global supply shortfall and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. While Russia initially saw a windfall from higher prices, Ukrainian drone strikes...
FAO: Protracted Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Turn Into Global Agrifood Catastrophe
The FAO warned that a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could halt shipments of essential agricultural inputs, sparking a surge in food‑price inflation comparable to the COVID‑19 shock. About 20‑45% of global fertilizer and energy imports travel through...
Trump’s Hormuz Gamble Fuels Inflation, yet Demands Rate Cuts
Trump is trying to block the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is up. Inflation is climbing. And he still wants the Fed to cut rates. That’s not a policy position. That’s a contradiction. The war didn’t create the inflation problem. It made an...
Strait of Hormuz Reopens for Now, but Global Supply Chains Remain at Risk
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of his threatened bombing of Iran, tying the pause to the safe repassage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway moves roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas, a...
From Indaba to the Budget: Will Fiscal Policy Unlock Mining-Led Growth?
South Africa’s mining sector, responsible for roughly 6% of GDP and about R440 billion ($23 billion) in annual output, is hampered by chronic freight bottlenecks. At the February Mining Indaba, industry leaders called for policy certainty and reliable logistics, prompting Finance Minister...
Trump Threatens His Own Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, interdicting any vessel that passes after Iran’s toll demand. The move follows a failed diplomatic effort to fully reopen...
THE DAWN OF THE MINING BOOM IS COMING SOON: Why the Strait of Hormuz Resolution Is the Ultimate Catalyst &...
The imminent resolution of the Strait of Hormuz dispute is prompting regional producers to fast‑track alternative pipelines, effectively neutralizing Iran’s ability to weaponize the chokepoint. With the geopolitical risk premium expected to collapse, investors anticipate a surge in capital spending...
Iran War May Widen 10-Year Yield’s Market Premium Vs. Fair Value
The US 10‑year Treasury yield remains above the Capital Spectator’s fair‑value estimate of roughly 4.0%, closing at 4.34% after a brief rise to 4.50% in late March. A market premium that spiked over a percentage point during the 2022‑23 inflation...
Dueling Hormuz Blockades Push World to the Brink
US President Donald Trump announced a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports. Iran has responded with a de‑facto toll‑booth regime, charging up to $2 million per ship and laying mines...
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
Australia Faces Diesel Shortage After Hormuz Crisis
Australia is uniquely vulnerable to disruptions in diesel supply,leading to a real diesel Armada heading there in the wake of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/phVWZTM4Em
China Demands Free Strait Navigation Despite Allied Blockade
China wants “unobstructed navigation” thru the Strait. There are two parties blocking Hormuz. China is an ally of one of them.
China, Iran Weaponize Economy, Outmaneuver U.S. Sanctions
China, Iran weaponized the global economy to beat the U.S. at its own game US...expanded export controls to cover an estimated 20,000 Chinese companies, and tightened controls over advanced chipmaking equipment and jet engines to China. Yes, that is economic coercion. https://t.co/Kd7ckEDhaE
Goldman: Oil Price Drag Neutralizes 2025 Fiscal Boost
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA https://t.co/tjt1bVV0cv
Saudi Crude Shipments to China to Halve Amid War
Saudi Arabia’s crude sales to top importer China are set to halve next month as the war in the Middle East upends flows and lifts prices, according to traders familiar with the matter https://t.co/P8mgp5is3N
Gold Fails as Inflation Hedge When Most Needed
Gold is widely regarded as the ultimate inflation hedge. But how reliable is it? As 126 years of data and a live geopolitical crisis both show, the gold inflation hedge fails precisely when investors need it most. My latest for #TEBI...
Key Issues to Watch at IMF‑World Bank Summit
5 things to watch at the IMF-World Bank meetings this week https://t.co/8BcEucTx0N via @CecileDaurat https://t.co/UDyXcKlsEk
UK Living Standards Set to Decline Over Iran Conflict
Britain faces another lost year for living standards due to Iran war https://t.co/MuGg4NBJB6 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nPivyrmAQc
Regulation Cuts Bank Risk Premiums, Raises Unemployment
New @nberpubs: "The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach" https://t.co/g4pjlheA4f "A 10 basis point regulation-induced peak reduction in bank risk premiums is accompanied by a 15 basis point peak increase in the unemployment rate." https://t.co/sclisI5Km5
90% of 2025 Tariffs Shift to U.S. Importers
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs in 2025: Short-Run Impacts on the U.S. Economy" https://t.co/Du7yk49H5l "90% of the tariffs are passed through to tariff-inclusive prices paid by U.S. importers" https://t.co/kMhPTPkojL
War Unpriced: Ignoring Inflation and Recession Risks
Wars are inflationary and recessionary. War was not priced in. Recession is not priced in.
AI Product Imports Surge 73% as Tariffs Stay Low
New @nberpubs: "Trade in AI-Related Products" https://t.co/HKvnAGrO6D "imports of these products have grown by 73 percent since 2023... Trade policy has treated these products lightly with product-level exemptions shielding much of AI-related imports from tariffs." https://t.co/HNy3aXAeMU
ECB Confident of Another Soft Landing Amid Oil Shock
Yes, the ECB achieved a soft landing after the last inflation shock which suggests that it believes it will be able to do so again as it tightens into the oil price shock. Let's hope so.
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.