Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
MiB: Mike Pyle, BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group
BlackRock’s Deputy Head of the Portfolio Management Group, Mike Pyle, sat down for a Masters in Business interview to discuss how a potential war with Iran could generate durable economic shocks, especially in energy markets. Drawing on his tenure as Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, Pyle outlined BlackRock’s approach to geopolitical risk. The conversation, available across major podcast platforms, also includes his current reading list and a preview of next week’s interview with Philippe Bouchaud of Capital Fund Management, a $20 billion managed‑futures firm.
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Hedge funds (non‑commercial speculators) have deepened their bearish bets on long‑duration Treasuries, pushing net short positions in 10‑year note futures to 823.6 k contracts—a 5% weekly rise—and expanding 30‑year shorts to 59 k, up 86% week‑over‑week. In commodities, they remain net long...
US Destroyer Turns Back After Iran Threat via Pakistan
https://t.co/BrBdceeoER Interesting take by Bloomberg: A US destroyer was seen moving from Fujairah toward the waterway, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said separately. Iran’s armed forces monitored it and conveyed this to the US via Pakistani mediators, the news agency said. The US vessel...
Ford Is Taking Lemons in the World's Largest Auto Market and Making Lemonade
Ford has turned a persistent loss streak in China into a profit by pivoting from domestic sales to exporting vehicles built in the country. A brutal price war, driven by a market that is now roughly 50% new‑energy vehicles, has...
Trilateral US-Iran Talks Begin
Senior Iranian officials and senior U.S. representatives convened in Islamabad on Saturday, marking the first trilateral talks aimed at ending the Middle East war that has disrupted global markets. The Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, met...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 11-17th April 2026:
The week pivots on high‑stakes US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, which could determine whether a fragile two‑week ceasefire survives amid ongoing Middle‑East tensions. Meanwhile, the US earnings season kicks off with FactSet projecting a 13.2% year‑over‑year EPS gain for the S&P 500...
Zambia’s Cabinet Approves Revised 2026 Budget as Fuel Costs Jump
Zambia’s cabinet approved a revised 2026 budget to offset revenue pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. The government has temporarily suspended value‑added tax, customs and excise duties on fuel imports, even as global fuel prices continue to climb. The...
Cheng-Xi Meeting Seen as Beijing Signal to Trump on Taiwan: Scholars
KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, a move scholars interpret as Beijing’s signal to President Trump ahead of his postponed China visit. The meeting reaffirmed the 1992 consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence, indicating tighter...
CIT Hears Oral Arguments on Trump’s Section 122 Tariffs, Spotlighting Executive Power Limits
The U.S. Court of International Trade heard oral arguments on two lawsuits challenging President Donald Trump’s Section 122 emergency tariffs, filed by 24 state attorneys general and the Liberty Justice Center. The cases question whether a trade deficit can justify the...
Moody's Holds Ghana Rating at Caa1, Outlook Turns Positive
Moody's Investors Service maintained Ghana's sovereign rating at Caa1 while revising the outlook from stable to positive. The agency highlighted lower domestic financing costs but warned that exchange‑rate swings and commodity‑price volatility remain key risks for the cedi and debt...
Taiwan's KMT Chair Cheng Li-Wun Meets Xi Jinping Amid $40 B Defense Budget Standoff
Taiwan’s Kuomintang chair Cheng Li-wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing – the first such encounter in over a decade – as the island’s $40 billion special defense budget stalls and a $14 billion U.S. arms package hangs in limbo. The...
Gold Peaks Signal Potential 25% S&P Decline
When Parabolic Gold Peaks, Stocks Typically Drop The stock market tends to decline when gold peaks from high-velocity rallies. Will it be different this time? My graphic highlights the metal rolling over from its greatest premium to the 20-quarter moving average...
Iran War Triggers Biggest Gas Price Jump in Six Decades, Fueling U.S. Inflation Surge
U.S. gasoline prices leapt 21% in March, the largest monthly increase in six decades, as the Iran war disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge drove consumer inflation to 3.3% year‑over‑year, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve...
Iran Situation Update - A Show of Good Faith on Hormuz?
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived in Islamabad on Thursday to lead a delegation in cease‑fire negotiations with Iran, accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and former White House adviser Jared Kushner. The talks come after Iran has ignored all...
Metal Shock: Gulf's Largest Aluminum Producer Declares Force Majeure
Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf’s largest aluminium producer, has declared force majeure on portions of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes damaged its Al Taweelah smelter, forcing a shutdown. The outage removes roughly 4% of global aluminium...
Pakistani Five-Star Hotel Becomes Unlikely Site for US-Iran Talks
US Vice President JD Vance led an American delegation to Islamabad for high‑stakes peace talks with senior Iranian officials aimed at ending the Iran war. The talks are being held at the luxury Serena Hotel, a 15‑acre, 400‑room property known...
📊 Weekly Market Recap: Relief Rally… But Is It Real or Just Headlines?
The U.S. equity market posted a relief rally this week, with the S&P 500 up 3.6%, Nasdaq 4.7% and the Dow 3.0% after oil prices retreated following a two‑week cease‑fire in the Middle East. The drop in crude eased inflation...
Piyush Goyal Holds Talks with Saudi Arabia Trade Minister on Stronger Supply Chains
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal held a virtual meeting with Saudi Trade Minister Majid bin Abdullah Al Qassabi to reinforce supply‑chain links amid disruptions from the West Asia crisis. The dialogue, part of broader talks with UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, highlighted...
Our Fisheries Exports Have Risen From Rs 60,000 Cr to Rs 68,000 Cr After US Tariffs: MoS Baghel
India’s fisheries exports have jumped from roughly Rs 60,000 crore (about $7.2 billion) to Rs 68,000 crore ($8.2 billion), a 25% increase, after the United States imposed new tariffs. Union Minister Satya Pal Singh Baghel announced the growth at the second National Veterinary, Dairy and Fisheries Symposium in Nagpur...
Charting the Global Economy: War Fuels Inflation, Saps Sentiment
The Iran war has triggered a sharp surge in global fuel prices, pushing U.S. gasoline costs up 21% and sparking the steepest inflation rise in nearly four years. Consumer confidence in the United States and Canada has slumped to record...
LNG Will Play a Major Role in Trump’s ‘Energy Fortress America’
President Trump’s push for an “Energy Fortress America” puts U.S. LNG at the core of his energy agenda. Iran’s missile strike forced QatarEnergy to declare force majeure, pulling roughly 17% of global LNG capacity offline and prompting a rush to...
A Ceasefire in the Form of a Strategic Debacle for the US
The Trump administration announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran while portraying Operation Epic Fury as a decisive victory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine listed massive destruction of Iranian air‑defense systems, missile sites, command nodes, fleet assets, and...
Growth Slows, Inflation Sticks: Cut Treasuries, Buy Cyclicals
Macro: growth cools; inflation sticky. Key: Fed, CPI, earnings. Risks: stagfllation, liquidity shock. Trade: shorten duration (cut long Treasuries). Outlook: volatile; favor cyclicals on dips. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Why East Africa Fuel Crisis Will Linger After Iran War Ceasefire
East Africa's fuel shortage will persist despite a two‑week Gulf ceasefire, as the region depends on refined imports from the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda's reserves are expected to run out by mid‑May, prompting rationing...
Energy Prices Surge, Sparking Crises Across Europe and Developing Nations
This reporting from The Guardian gives us a feel for the growing pressures in Europe as energy prices remain high. The situation is worse in some developing countries, where physical shortages are already occurring. #economy #MiddleEastWar #oil #energy @guardian
Monthly Inflation Nowcast Predicts CPI Acceleration 90% Accurate
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built...
Mortgage Rates and Banknotes
The episode examines the sharp rise in UK mortgage rates, now above 5% for two- and five-year fixes, and the anxiety this creates for existing homeowners and prospective buyers. Experts Adam French and mortgage advisor Jane King explain how product...
U.S. Oil Production Increases Vulnerability to Price Shocks
Being a top producer doesn’t insulate the U.S. from oil shocks It amplifies exposure. Oil is priced globally, and the U.S. economy is more oil-intensive than its peers, so higher prices hit harder. Those who think the US is less affected are...
Exclusive-Iranian Source Says US Has Agreed to Unfreeze Iranian Funds, Washington Denies It
An unnamed senior Iranian source claimed the United States agreed to unfreeze about $6 billion of Iranian assets held in Qatar, linking the move to safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The allegation surfaced amid diplomatic talks in Islamabad, but...
Ukraine Can Play Useful Role in Strait of Hormuz, Britain Says
Britain says Ukraine can play a useful role in securing the Strait of Hormuz, praising its drone technology as among the world’s best. The UK has convened more than 30 nations to discuss reopening the strait after Iran’s blockade choked...
U.S. Inflation Jumps as Gas Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
Consumer prices climbed 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the biggest annual rise since May 2024, as gasoline surged 21% amid the Iran war’s impact on oil markets. The spike sharpens pressure on the Federal Reserve and raises near‑term cost burdens for...
Iran War Triggers Strait Toll, Helium Shortage and 20% U.S. Gas Spike, Stoking Global Inflation
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a new toll regime and choking oil‑linked supply chains. Helium shipments from Qatar, India’s LPG imports and U.S. gasoline prices have all surged, driving U.S. inflation up...
Most Stock Returns Driven by Market, Not Picking
“People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking. And stock picking is full of macro bets. When an equity...
China’s Power Surge Outpaces US, Boosting Geopolitical Clout
China added 1,514 GW of power capacity in 4 years. The US added just 161 GW. ENERGY CAPACITY = GEOPOLITICAL POWER. https://t.co/mIUmWJOAqL
Peza Approvals Fell 22% in Q1 on ‘Calibrated’ Investment Pace
PEZA’s approved investment pledges fell 22.77% in Q1 2026, dropping to ₱45.53 billion (≈$828 million) from ₱58.95 billion (≈$1.07 billion) a year earlier. The shortfall leaves the agency at just 15.2% of its ₱300 billion (≈$5.45 billion) 2026 target. Although total value declined, the number of approved...
Trump’s Oil Exports Could Spike U.S. Gas Prices
I wonder what Trump will do when he realizes that selling U.S. oil overseas raises gas prices here. I assume no one will ever tell him.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Leaves Chaos and Contradiction
What Does This Ceasefire Actually Mean? Once again, we've found ourselves in a chaotic and contradictory situation. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is shaping up to be one big cluster. #iranwar #geopolitics
India's Hormuz Dependence Exceeds Global Average, Raising Energy Security Concerns
India's import routes for crude oil, natural gas and especially LPG rely on the Strait of Hormuz at rates higher than the global average, exposing a strategic vulnerability. Officials say diversification of supply sources and domestic gas expansion are under...
Supply Chains Face New Test: Hormuz Free Passage or Toll?
Dating back to the pandemic, the world is again learning of supply chains. But the lessons/takeaways if and when the Strait of Hormuz is opened? As free passage or a toll for Iran.
Government Claims 21% Health Insurance Cost Decline Over Five Years
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 21% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/YUTqN8BlGp
India’s Forex Reserves Jump $9 Bn to $697 Bn, Shielding Economy Amid US‑Iran Tensions
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $9.06 billion rise in foreign‑exchange reserves to $697.12 billion for the week ended April 3, 2026. The surge, driven by a $7.22 billion jump in gold holdings and a $1.78 billion increase in foreign‑currency assets, reinforces a buffer...
US-Israeli Conflict Severely Disrupts Gulf Fertil
Fertilizer flows from the Gulf continue to be disrupted. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/jiYKxSmV7U
Reduced Odds Trump Would Enforce Oil Export Ban
Let’s look on the bright side—all else equal, this probably reduced the odds Trump imposed an oil export ban.
Exxon Mobil Unveils 11‑billion‑barrel Stabroek Discovery, Targeting 1 M Bpd by 2026
Exxon Mobil said its Stabroek Block offshore Guyana holds roughly 11 billion oil‑equivalent barrels, with production poised to climb from 875,000 bpd at end‑2025 to over 1 million bpd before 2026. The find could reshape global supply and boost Guyana’s economy.
Hormuz Crisis: Shipping Stalled, Energy Flows Disrupted
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t “closed.” It’s worse than that. Shipping isn’t returning. Energy flows are broken. Confidence is gone. Dispatch 107 - Hormuz Reality Check, is out now. Exclusive to gCaptain Club Members: https://t.co/k7iXw2TSrB
Fed Denies Error While Abandoning Public‑Interest Monetary Policy
Evidence @federalreserve denies to go down in history as greatest policy error in history. To defend a political assault, they’ve abdicated a sworn duty to make monetary policy in the “public interest.” Perhaps a fuller explanation is warranted followed by doing...
Energy Self‑sufficiency Shifts Oil Shock Costs to Consumers
We’ve seen this movie before, but not on the same technology. In the 1970s, an oil shock made America poorer overall. Today we’re far more energy self-sufficient, so the big story is less national collapse and more who gets stuck...
EPL Athletes Generate £2.1bn Tax, Then Flee
Capital flight of the Athlete class is something Ive spoken about. £2.1bn from EPL alone in tax receipts from a very small number of people.
Ceasefire Hope Boosts Risk Appetite, Rallies Equities
Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal: Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell...
Financialization Fuels Collapse: Bankers Win, Workers Lose
my BOOK OF THE SUMMER: 'The bankers did well, workers did not...' 242 devastating pages by @B_Eichengreen. on what money says about society. it is profound how from BCE to BDCs our collapse is 'financialized'. minimal math; maximum depth and...