Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 Rise as Dow Falters, Oil Spike Fuels Market Breadth Shift
The Nasdaq climbed 0.6% to 22,966.65 and the S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 6,834.93, while the Dow fell 0.3% to 48,043.65. The moves came as oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel, reviving geopolitical risk and compressing market breadth.
Panama Accuses China of Seizing Flagged Vessels, Raising Global Shipping Tensions
Panama’s foreign minister warned China on Wednesday that the detention of Panama‑flagged vessels in Chinese ports is a retaliation for a Supreme Court ruling that stripped Hong‑Kong‑based CK Hutchison of two Panama Canal port contracts. The move threatens the reliability...
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Plummets to Record Low in April, Raising Retail Spending Concerns
The University of Michigan reported that U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a historic low of 47.6 in April, far below expectations. The decline, driven by worries over the Iran conflict and higher inflation expectations, threatens retail sales forecasts and forces...
Kearney Survey Shows 88% of Investors Boost FDI Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index reveals that 88% of senior executives intend to expand FDI in the next three years, while 84% say industrial policy now drives capital allocation. The findings come as China climbs to fourth place...
Rodgers & Associates Cuts IWF Position Amid Broad Hedge Fund Rebalancing
Rodgers & Associates Ltd. trimmed its stake in the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) in early April 2026, joining a wave of hedge funds adjusting positions in the $117 billion fund. While the exact size of the reduction was not...
Kenya Softens IMF Stance as Iran Conflict Fuels Balance‑of‑Payments Strain
Kenya's central bank governor Kamau Thugge said Nairobi will resume IMF negotiations in Washington this month, signaling a softer stance after the Iran‑US conflict widened the current‑account gap and forced a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 5.3%. The...
Russia Targets 10.3 M Bpd Oil Output in 2026, Novak Says
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Russia will lift oil output to 515 million metric tons in 2026 – about 10.3 million barrels per day – up from 512 million tons in 2025. The forecast comes as Moscow seeks to boost domestic...
ASX 200 Dips 0.14% to 8,960.6 as Oil Price Rebound Pressures Tech Stocks
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.14% to 8,960.6 on Friday as crude oil prices rebounded toward $97 a barrel, dragging down technology shares. Energy stocks rose modestly, and investors remain wary of the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and its...
Former Fed Official Argues Against Fed Independence
Former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles told a Shadow Open Market Committee audience that the legal shield preventing presidential removal of Board members should be scrapped, but argued the Fed’s decentralized structure would still keep monetary policy insulated from...
Longer-Term Impacts From War Constrain SET
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) experienced extreme volatility in March after Israel and the United States began bombing Iran, triggering a circuit‑breaker when the index dropped 8% on March 4. Oil prices surged nearly 40%, sending diesel to over 50 baht...
Iran Ceasefire Eases Markets, Not Singapore’s Concerns
A cease‑fire in the Iran conflict has steadied global risk assets, but Singapore’s foreign affairs minister warned that the worst‑case energy‑supply shock is not fully priced in. Singapore responded with about S$1 billion (≈ $785 million) of support measures and urged reduced electricity...
Wall Street Strategists Wrestle with War’s Toll on 2026 Outlook
A fragile cease‑fire in the Middle East sparked a brief rally, lifting the S&P 500 3.6% – its strongest jump since November – while emerging‑market equities and Bitcoin surged. Wall Street strategists, however, warn the war has already scarred inflation, energy...
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Ukraine Ready to Open Strait of Hormuz if Ceasefire Collapses
If the ceasefire fails, Ukraine has a plan to unblock the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/n300ozshow
Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Tightening Spring Home‑buying Market
Mortgage rates have climbed again, adding fresh pressure to an already tight spring housing market. The rise comes amid higher utility bills, elevated construction material costs and tighter credit conditions, tightening affordability for prospective buyers.
China’s Low Inflation Reflects Sub‑golden M2 Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
US‑Iran Talks Aim to Boost Hormuz Traffic Soon
Will the US-Iran negotiations starting today be able to secure a material increase in the Strait of Hormuz transits early on? Courtesy FT: https://t.co/SLCKkZ5fdc
U.S. Q4 GDP Revised to 0.5% Annualized Growth, Downgraded After Shutdown
The Commerce Department lowered its fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP estimate to a 0.5% annualized gain, down from 0.7%, after a 43‑day government shutdown trimmed federal spending. The modest expansion follows a 4.4% surge in Q3 and leaves full‑year growth at 2.1%,...
Fed Must Explain How Current Inflation Spike Differs From 2022
JUST IN: The Fed has to clarify why this inflation spike differs from the 2022 surge.
Russia Profits as Europe’s Sanctions Hinge on Energy
Europe might sanction Russia, but when push comes to shove, it depends on Russian energy. As I’ve been saying since Day 1 of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/boFO4l8cc7
Oil Posts Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2020 Ahead of Iran-US Talks
Oil prices slipped sharply as the market digested the prospect of Iran‑U.S. talks. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.3% to below $97 a barrel, while weekly futures dropped 13.4%, marking the steepest decline since 2020. Prices remain over 30% above pre‑conflict...
Iran War Will Boost U.S. Reindustrialization, Outweigh Tariffs
I've said this a few times, but it needs to be reinforced. The Iran war will do far more to balance trade and drive American reindustrialization than the tariffs ever did.
Cuban Foreign Minister Blames U.S. for Pressuring Latin Nations to End Cuban Doctors Program
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said the United States is extorting Latin American governments to terminate decades‑old agreements that send Cuban doctors abroad. The claim comes as Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica and Guyana have pulled the plug on the program that...
China Halts Jet Fuel Exports, Triggering Global Shortage
Jet fuel supply disruptions continue. China has halted jet fuel exports; Asia is running out of fuel. Major shortages could soon spread to Europe and the US. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/1BeaFpUw8i
Without WTO, Regional Blocs Create Economic Imbalances
Without the WTO, the world will revert to regional trading blocs. The issue is that this leaves several regions without balanced economies (you need production and consumption, and only a handful of areas have that). #trade #wto #geopolitics https://t.co/2TTZ38I9KL
S&P’s Lower Philippine Outlook Not a Surprise–Nomura
S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines sovereign outlook to "stable," echoing concerns over twin budget and current‑account deficits. Nomura analysts said the move was anticipated after the flood‑control corruption scandal and an energy shock from the Middle East war heightened...
Philippine Manufacturers Call for ‘Ayuda’ Amid War-Linked Crisis
The Federation of Philippine Industries (FPI) urged the government to provide targeted, time‑bound aid to manufacturers as the Middle East conflict keeps oil and logistics costs high. Despite the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel surcharges have risen...
Thailand Targets Major Investment Reform
Thai Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas warned that the current global energy crisis is Thailand's last chance to overhaul its investment framework. Domestic investment has slipped to just 24% of GDP, down from 40% before the 1997 crisis, leaving the export‑driven...
WSJ Publishes Our Correction to Greer’s Institution Claim
Happy to see @WSJopinion publish my and @clark_packard's corrective to USTR Greer's recent lament re: the death of an institution the US helped kill: https://t.co/PSNtjzxlnu (🎁) https://t.co/WrWZYci8rl
China’s 41‑Month Deflation Streak Ends, PPI Up 0.5%
China’s deflation streak is FINALLY OVER. Yesterday, after 41 straight months in the red, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) finally ended -- barely -- at 0.5%/yr. https://t.co/Ysgkv6ogB2
News Wrap: Inflation Report Shows the Biggest Increase Since 2024
The Labor Department’s consumer price index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year, the fastest increase since 2024, driven by gasoline prices that posted their biggest monthly jump in six decades. Stripping out food and energy, core inflation barely moved, indicating modest underlying price...
Thai Export Pain Set to Continue Despite Mideast Truce
Thai export growth is expected to stall at 0‑1% this year as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply chains and dampens demand in key markets. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian tolls raises shipping costs, while...
Global Oil Trade Hits Record Amid Saudi Disruptions
🇺🇸US crude oil exports to increase to highest on record 🇮🇳India's Imports from Russia are Near Record High 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's damaged oil facilities: What is the impact? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/pyGKWXbmpg
Policy Blunders: Self‑Inflicted Economic Shock via Rake
Usually economic shocks are called things like pandemics or oil embargoes. This version is more: bloke walks into the policy room, sees a rake, and steps on it repeatedly. https://t.co/Lzh723GjsJ
Drawdowns & Rallies: Seeing Through a Fog Darkly (E257)
DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Mark Kimbrough dissected market turbulence over the two weeks ending April 10, highlighting how the Middle‑East conflict created a “fog of war” that clouded pricing. The S&P 500 slumped after the Feb 28 war outbreak and surged once a...
Energy Shock Squeezes Aussie Household Budgets
Commonwealth Bank of Australia's economics team used bank‑account data to show that soaring energy costs are consuming a larger share of Australian household budgets. The analysis indicates energy expenses now account for roughly 15% of average household spending, squeezing disposable...
China to Ban Sulfuric Acid Exports as War Hits Supply
China announced a ban on sulfuric acid exports starting in May, targeting acid produced as a by‑product of copper and zinc smelting. The restriction follows supply disruptions caused by the Iran‑Israel war, which has choked sulfur shipments from the Middle...
Gulf Allays Concerns over LNG Supplies
Gulf Development Plc, Thailand’s largest energy firm, said its LNG supply remained stable despite recent spot‑price spikes caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure and disruptions in Qatar’s exports. The company has diversified its gas purchases, notably sourcing from Nigeria,...
Op-Ed: UK Naval Shrinkage Taints London Defence Conference
The London Defence Conference aimed to position the UK as a geopolitical hub like Munich, but recent statements by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Defence Secretary have highlighted a shrinking defence posture. Although the government pledged to raise defence...
US Lawmakers Seek to Block China’s DUV Lithography Access
Bipartisan U.S. lawmakers introduced the MATCH Act to block Chinese chipmakers from acquiring deep‑ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography systems, related parts, and servicing. The bill coordinates export controls with allies, targeting firms such as SMIC, CXMT, Huawei, Hua Hong and YMTC,...
Iran War: Expensive Oil Drives Rising Inflation in U.S.
The ongoing Iran‑War has choked oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing diesel prices up 55% year‑to‑date and sparking a sharp energy‑price shock. In March, the energy component of the CPI jumped 10.9%, while the gasoline index surged...
Investors Are Gloomy About Inflation and Risk-Taking Ahead of Saturday’s Iran Talks
U.S. equities slipped on Friday as investors grew wary of rising inflation and the upcoming U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad. The Dow Jones fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 edged down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4% after a week‑long rally. Market sentiment...
Analysis: U.S. Negotiators Were Ill-Prepared for Serious Nuclear Talks With Iran
U.S. negotiators entered the 2026 Vienna nuclear talks with Iran without a core team of senior nuclear experts, leading to vague proposals and a weakened bargaining position. Internal disagreements among the State Department, the National Security Council, and the Energy...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Does Little for Fertilizer Availability, Prices
The recent U.S.-Iran cease‑fire will not quickly restore fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to StoneX market specialist Josh Linville. About 930,000 tons of fertilizer are stranded on ships, yet India alone still requires roughly 600,000 tons more to meet...
US and French Rare Earth Companies Partner in Bid to Catch up with China
USA Rare Earth is taking a 12.5% stake in France’s Carester to accelerate rare‑earth separation capabilities in both the United States and Europe. Carester will use its expertise to scale a Colorado‑based process and to fund a commercial‑scale plant in...
Energy - the AI Achille's Heel
In a recent "Debunking Economics" episode, Phil Dobbie and Professor Steve Keen argue that the AI boom is hitting an energy wall, as the sector’s soaring compute needs clash with a tightening global power supply. They trace the strain to...
Premium Users Get Weekly Macro Review & Preview
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview April 10, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/yuHKVKbbyr
Oil Prices Drop After Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Still Closed
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices collapsed following the announcement of an Iran War ceasefire, during which attacks have continued, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed; all eyes on weekend negotiations Summary below, full report...
Greer: U.S. and China Relationship Is Stable
U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer told a Hudson‑hosted forum that the United States and China have settled into a stable trade relationship, even as substantial tariffs on advanced Chinese goods remain in place. He emphasized the dual priority of...
Canadian Stocks Edge Higher As Optimism Rises Ahead Of U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Canadian equities nudged higher on Friday as optimism grew around upcoming U.S.–Iran peace talks. The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished at 33,695.76, gaining 218.05 points (0.65%). Eight of 11 sectors posted gains, led by materials (+1.83%) and energy (+1.49%). Meanwhile, Statistics...