Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Euro‑area Households See Income Rise While Corporate Surplus Climbs in Q4 2025
Euro‑area household disposable income jumped 3.3% year‑on‑year in the fourth quarter of 2025, while consumption rose 3.6% and the saving rate held at 14.9%. Non‑financial corporations posted a 4.4% rise in net value added and a 4.3% increase in gross operating surplus, signaling mixed balance‑sheet trends that will influence earnings forecasts for listed European companies.
Pound Pressured Ahead of US CPI as GBP/USD Hovers Near 1.3420
The pound slipped to about $1.3420 per dollar as markets brace for the U.S. consumer price index. Traders have cut expectations for Bank of England hikes to 30‑40 basis points this year, while the Federal Reserve is still seen cutting...
Analysts Warn Fed May Raise Rates in 2026, Shifting Bond Market Outlook
A coalition of market strategists says the Federal Reserve is now more likely to hike rates in 2026 than to cut them, after minutes revealed heightened inflation worries. The shift pushes 10‑year Treasury yields toward the 4.5% range and forces...
KOSPI Slides Below 5,800 as Profit‑Taking Erodes 6% Surge
The KOSPI index slipped to 5,796.75 points on April 9, reversing a 6% rally that had pushed it above 5,800 the day before. Profit‑taking by domestic traders and lingering geopolitical risks drove the 1.29% decline, even as foreign investors logged net...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Malta at A (High), Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Malta’s sovereign ratings at A (high) for long‑term foreign and local currency debt and R‑1 (middle) for short‑term debt, with a Stable outlook. Real GDP expanded 4.0% in 2025, while the fiscal deficit narrowed to roughly 3%...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Lithuania at A (High), Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Lithuania's long‑term sovereign rating at A (high) and short‑term rating at R‑1, maintaining a stable outlook. The agency highlighted solid fiscal discipline, a modest public‑debt ratio of about 39.5% of GDP and 2.9% real GDP growth in...
Canada’s Modest Job Gains Driven By Part-Time Work As Full-Time Roles Decline
Canada added 14,100 jobs in March, the first gain this year, but the increase was modest and driven entirely by part‑time positions while full‑time jobs fell 1,100. The unemployment rate held at 6.7%, unchanged from February, reflecting persistent labour slack....
Is the US Overlooking Turkmenistan in Its Iran Strategy?
The United States is weighing whether to tap Turkmenistan’s border airfields and logistics hubs as a foothold for operations against Iran amid a tentative cease‑fire. Turkmenistan, the only Central Asian nation sharing a 1,126‑km frontier with Iran, maintains a UN‑recognized...
Strait of Hormuz Constraints Keep Oil Prices Elevated
Oil prices hover near $100 per barrel despite the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, because the Strait of Hormuz remains tightly controlled by Iran’s IRGC. Traffic through the chokepoint is limited to managed routes, preventing a return to normal commercial shipping. Analysts from...
The Silent Heist: How China’s Trade Cheating Is Gutting American Manufacturing
The article outlines how systematic trade cheating by China has eroded U.S. manufacturing, citing a loss of $230 billion and 2.1 million jobs since 2018. It details tactics such as intellectual‑property theft, transshipment via third‑party countries, and exploitation of de‑minimis exemptions that...
Chhangani Cited in House of Saud Article on How Iran Avoids US Sanctions and Sell Oil to China
Alisha Chhangani was quoted in a House of Saud analysis describing how Iran circumvents U.S. sanctions to continue oil shipments to China. The piece outlines Tehran's use of covert shipping routes, shell companies, and diplomatic channels to mask the origin...
AC Front Page Event with World Bank Group President Ajay Banga Featured in Reuters Article on Slower Global Growth and...
The Atlantic Council hosted a front‑page event featuring World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, whose remarks were subsequently highlighted in a Reuters piece on the slowdown in global growth. Banga warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is pushing oil prices...
Tannebaum Cited in Politico Article on Risks to Shipping Companies Transiting Hormuz, and the Waterway’s Indispensability to the Global Economy.
Former U.S. Treasury official Robert Tannebaum was quoted in a Politico piece highlighting the heightened risks facing shipping firms that navigate the Strait of Hormuz. He stressed that the narrow waterway remains a chokepoint for roughly one‑fifth of the world’s...
Canadians Face Fewer Layoffs Than Normal, But Good Luck Finding A Job
Canada’s March Labour Force Survey showed a modest 0.1% rise in employment, adding 14.1 k jobs to a total of 21.05 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, while the layoff rate stayed at 0.6%, matching pre‑pandemic norms. However, the job‑finding...
Is Budapest the Bellwether?
Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday pits long‑time prime minister Viktor Orbán against opposition leader Péter Magyar. U.S. Vice President JD Vance flew to Budapest to back Orbán, while recent polls give the opposition a roughly 10‑point lead. The contest is...
Rice Export Rules Relaxed for Select European Countries
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced that the mandatory inspection certificate for rice exports will apply only to the EU, UK, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Exports to all other European nations are exempt for a six‑month period, easing...
Wholesale Rice Prices up 7% as West Asia Ceasefire Fuels Export Rush
India's wholesale rice prices jumped up to 7% in two days after a US‑Iran ceasefire sparked a surge in export orders to the Middle East and the United States. Prices had previously fallen up to 6% due to disruptions from...
Inflation Eats Purchasing Power: Money Must Grow
$100 in 2021 now feels like ~$80 today. That’s inflation. Your money didn’t disappear—it just buys less. If your money isn’t growing, it’s losing value.
Government Plans Weekly System to Track EXIM Trends
India's commerce ministry announced a new weekly monitoring mechanism to track export‑import trends and sectoral stress indicators. The system aims to identify supply‑chain disruptions, logistics bottlenecks, and rising input costs linked to geopolitical tensions from the Iran war. Customs officials...
Reignited Inflation Could Push Social Security COLA Past 3% Next Year
The U.S. Department of Labor reported a 3.3% year‑over‑year CPI increase for March, propelled by a 10.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict. The sharp 0.9% monthly rise marks the strongest one‑month jump since the 2022 pandemic‑driven inflation...
The Future of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains technically open but is functionally constrained as Iran imposes coordination requirements and quasi‑tolls, turning the waterway into a tool of economic coercion. Shipping volumes have fallen sharply as insurers and operators avoid the heightened risk....
Inflation in March, and a Year From Now…
Iran has warned it will not resume talks or keep the Strait of Hormuz open until Israel stops bombing Lebanon, linking the conflict directly to its diplomatic leverage. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a looming corruption trial that...
Estonia Says Detaining Russia’s Tankers in Baltic Sea Is Too Risky
Estonia, a NATO member bordering the Gulf of Finland, will not detain Russian‑sanctioned oil tankers in the Baltic Sea because the risk of military escalation is deemed too high. The stance follows a failed boarding attempt last year and a...
El Niño Forecast Suggests Risk of Low Water Levels Along Panama Canal
A NOAA forecast predicts a strong El Niño developing this summer, raising the likelihood of a significant drought in the Panama Canal watershed. Reduced rainfall could lower lake levels by as much as 30 cm, forcing the Canal Authority to tighten draft...
Fed Will Need to Explain Why Current Inflation Jump Differs From 2022 Surge
The U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.9% in March, the fastest monthly rise since the 2022 inflation surge, pushing annual headline inflation above 11%. Unlike the 2022 spike, the current increase is driven largely by higher energy costs linked to...
Energy Fueled the CPI Spike but Essentials Are the Real Story
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, with a 0.9% monthly gain—the fastest since mid‑2022. A 21% jump in gasoline prices supplied nearly three‑quarters of that increase, putting energy at the headline. Core CPI, which strips out...
Daily Energy Report
The United States is set to ship a record 5 million barrels of crude per day from the Gulf Coast in May 2026, up from 4.9 mb/d in April and 3.97 mb/d in March. The surge follows a sharp decline in exports that...
Labour Force Survey: Understanding the Numbers
Canada’s labour market stalled in March 2024, with employment rising by just 14,000 jobs and the employment rate holding at 60.6%, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.7%. Despite the flat job picture, average hourly wages jumped 4.7% year‑over‑year to...
Hardly Any Ships Getting Through Strait of Hormuz
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to historic lows, with daily transits now under ten vessels—a roughly 70% decline from pre‑conflict levels. The slowdown follows heightened Iranian missile threats and tighter naval inspections, prompting many carriers to...
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COST OF LIVING CRUNCH: Food or Paraffin? SA’s Poorest Forced to Choose as Prices Double
South Africa’s paraffin price more than doubled in April, climbing from R11.52 ($0.61) to R23.19 ($1.22) per litre and reaching a retail ceiling of R31.47 ($1.66). Over 500,000 households – many in informal settlements – depend on paraffin for cooking,...
European Airports Warn of Jet Fuel Shortages Within Weeks
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger jet‑fuel shortages across the EU within weeks. About half of Europe’s jet fuel is sourced through the Persian Gulf, and prices have surged...
Inflation Surged to a Nearly Two-Year High in March
U.S. consumer prices jumped to a near two‑year high in March, with the CPI climbing 3.3% year‑over‑year, the strongest gain since May 2024. The surge was driven primarily by energy costs, as gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon for the first...
Geopolitical Risks Increasingly Dominate CFOs’ List of Concerns
A McKinsey CFO Pulse survey of 152 finance leaders conducted late 2025 shows geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts are now the top growth risks. 37% of respondents cite geopolitical conflict, while 32% point to trade policy changes as major...
Nigeria a Net Gasoline Exporter for First Time in March
Nigeria became a net exporter of gasoline in March, the first time since the Dangote refinery began operations. The refinery processed 565,000 barrels per day of crude, producing 44,000 barrels per day of gasoline, of which 40,000 b/d were exported,...
The Need for Federal Reserve Flexibility
The article argues that the Federal Reserve must stay agile as geopolitical shocks and soaring energy and fertilizer prices threaten to reignite inflation. It warns that the Fed’s overly accommodative stance in 2021‑22 helped push inflation to a 9% peak,...
Expect a Chaotic Market: Spikes, Shortages, and Volatile Bonds
Markets are going to be funky. SoH closure into an oil price spike and physical shortage. COVID showed us anything is on the table and that governments never let a good crisis go to waste. With sovereign bond yields about...
China Receives Global Concessions, Offers Little
Am sure Yufan describes the basic view of many in Beijing -- At the same time, the world has already made enormous accommodations to China, and I am not sure China has made much effort to accommodate other creditors that also...
Mortgage Rates Remain Surprisingly Calm
Mortgage rates held steady today, with the average rate barely moving from yesterday, effectively flat for the week. The market experienced unusually low volatility compared to the sharp swings seen in March. Analysts attribute this calm to steadier long‑term oil...
Market Outlook: Impact of Ceasefire Success or Failure
My video looking out over the coming week: Market Outlook Should a Ceasefire Fail or Hold https://t.co/MVQDZY94oJ https://t.co/Ir3CZFs9DE
Iran Pushes Hormuz Fees in Rial as Currency Gains 9%
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
Implementing the Digital Euro Project
The European Central Bank is advancing its digital euro project, originally launched in 2020, as EU legislation clears the path for implementation. The digital currency is envisioned as a cash‑like token to complement physical euros in everyday transactions. ECB officials...
IMF Acknowledges Currency Intervention Drives Depreciation, Improves Balance
Joe Gagnon (@GagnonMacro) should take a victory lap; the IMF has conceded intervention does have a real impact -- "A growing empirical literature finds that such intervention can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances" 1/
Only Iranian-Linked Vessels Now Using the Strait
While everyone is focused on variations of this chart, the story reposted below might be more important. Essentially, only Iranian-linked ships are passing through the Strait; no one else. https://t.co/SvcJA7aoSC
Inflation Goes up by a Whopping Monthly Rate of Nearly 1%—And It’s Hitting You at the Grocery Store and Gas...
The U.S. consumer price index jumped almost 1% in March, driven primarily by a 10.9% rise in energy costs and a 21.2% surge in gasoline—the steepest monthly increase since 1967. Year‑over‑year inflation climbed to 3.3%, the highest level since April...
US Federal Deficit Swells: $1.2 Trillion Shortfall in Six Months
In the first 6 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.5 trillion and spent $3.7 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/L0Zec6hR6L
Iran's Hormuz Grip Persists Ahead of US‑Iran Talks
Iran’s Chokehold On Hormuz Remains On The Eve Of Peace Talks In Pakistan The list of contested issues that the U.S. and Iran will have to come to some form of agreement on is long and complex. Updating live: https://t.co/NsmIfTZKJg
Iran War Drives Deeper Oil Shock Than Prices Reveal
The Iran‑Israel conflict has pushed the physical spot price of crude to a record $145 a barrel, more than double the level before the Feb. 28 attacks, while the widely quoted Brent futures linger around $109. The widening gap between futures...
Strait Delays Threaten US Supply Chains, Global Crisis
White House/Trump. Opening the Strait will not happensoon. Delays with the Strait mean the impact will start to hit the US. And make global situation worse. What then? Will supply chains find a tenth circle of hell?
US Fatigued, Iran Holds Leverage—Ceasefire Likely
Most frequently asked question on this morning's livestream: is a ceasefire even possible? Two things are clear: (i) the US has had enough; (ii) Iran has leverage. How that gets dressed up in face-saving language is what talks are about,...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Supply Chain Collapse
We said if Hormuz stayed close until mid-April, global supply chains were mathematically certain to begin collapsing, including in the US. Right on cue, on April 10👇 Things will rapidly get much worse from here if Hormuz stays closed “What’s the trade?” =...