Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
The Petrodollar Faces Increased Risk, but a Petroyuan Is ‘Far-Fetched’ as Fears of U.S. Losing Superpower Status Are Overhyped, Strategist...
President Trump’s escalating pressure on Iran has revived debate over the petrodollar’s durability, as Tehran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz and permits a trickle of yuan‑priced shipments. Dan Alamariu, Alpine Macro’s chief geopolitical strategist, cautions against assuming a swift shift to a petroyuan, calling such forecasts far‑fetched. He argues the Gulf Cooperation Council will likely deepen its partnership with Washington to counter Iranian moves, preserving the dollar’s role in oil trade. Meanwhile, scholars note the U.S. currency’s market depth and reserve dominance keep it entrenched despite geopolitical shocks.
Ray Dalio Issues Economic “War Thesis” Showing Dollar-Debasement Against Bitcoin
Ray Dalio’s April 9 TIME essay warns of a simultaneous breakdown of monetary, domestic political, and geopolitical orders, citing the Iran conflict as a trigger. He notes the U.S. dollar has fallen roughly 27% against gold and 45% against Bitcoin...
Five African Currencies with the Biggest Declines Amid Middle East War
The United States‑Iran escalation pushed oil prices over 50% higher in late March, sparking a wave of currency weakness across Africa. A joint African Union‑African Development Bank assessment found 29 African currencies depreciated, raising debt‑service costs and import bills. The...
Foreigners Own Nearly $30 Trillion in U.S. Stocks and Bonds. Here Is Why That Number Should Be on Every Investor's...
Foreign investors now control more than $35 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, up from roughly $31 trillion a year earlier. Despite the turbulence of April 2025’s tariff‑driven market dip, they increased net purchases to about $1.5 trillion, signaling sustained confidence in America’s financial...
Molly Jong-Fast Unpacks Trump Economy, Trade War, Truth Crisis
Today's pod: The brilliant @mollyjongfast had me on Fast Politics to discuss the Trump economy, the trade war, the war war, and the war on truth. https://youtu.be/-2poUJZP_fQ?si=VtfGr80vGj_Xa7JA
Interest Rates Are Headed Lower — Real Yields Suggest a Half-Point Fed Cut Is Coming
U.S. Treasury real yields have risen to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, signaling that nominal rates may soon ease. Economists’ natural‑rate (r‑star) estimates place the neutral rate near 0.9%, well below the current Fed funds rate of...
Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
The White House will publish the Economic Report of the President (ERP) for 2026 on Monday. The report’s baseline GDP forecast mirrors the numbers presented in the FY 2026 budget, which rely on November data and assume an out‑of‑balance (OBE) scenario...
Hidden Debt Transfers Burden, Distorts National Income Distribution
The East is Read has translated a very interesting paper by Wang Xiaolu. Speaking about "debt burdens the borrower could not service", he notes that "debt may be written off on paper, but the loss is ultimately shifted, through various...
Markets Price 65% Chance of June Rate Cut
S&P 500 just had its best week of 2026 +3.6% for the week. Nasdaq +4.7%. What triggered it: - Trump's 90-day tariff pause - Oil down on Iran de-escalation - Markets now pricing 65% June rate cut Here's the thing nobody's saying 👇
Scores Arrested at Pro-Palestinian Rally in London
Police in London arrested 92 pro‑Palestinian demonstrators during a sit‑down protest in Trafalgar Square, where activists displayed placards supporting the proscribed group Palestine Action. The group was designated a terrorist organisation last July, carrying a maximum 14‑year prison term for...
Brazil‑China Trade Fuels 25% of Global Deforestation Risk in Supply Chains
A Trase study finds the $47 billion Brazil‑China agricultural corridor generates a quarter of all deforestation risk embedded in global commodity supply chains. The analysis pinpoints 73 Brazilian municipalities responsible for 75% of that risk, offering a narrow focus for policy...
Rare‑Earth Funding Surge Raises Specter of 2030s Glut
Governments and private investors are committing billions of dollars to rare‑earth mining and processing projects outside China, aiming to secure supply chains for defense and clean‑tech. Analysts warn that the rapid build‑out, especially in U.S. magnet capacity, could outpace demand...
From Occupation to $1 Trillion: Norway’s Wealth Revolution
In 1945, Norway emerged from 5 years of brutal Nazi occupation. War-torn. Bankrupt. Dependent on foreign aid. Today: A $1+ trillion sovereign fund making every citizen wealthy. How they built the world's ultimate money machine:
World Bank Warns Middle East War Could Shave 1% Off Global Growth, Hit Emerging Markets
World Bank President Ajay Banga warned that the Iran‑Israel war could cut global GDP growth by as much as one percentage point and lift inflation in emerging economies to as high as 6.7%. The bank’s latest forecasts now see growth...
USD/CAD Rebounds as US‑Iran Cease‑Fire Hopes Ease Dollar, Mixed CPI and Jobs Data Weigh
The USD/CAD pair climbed back to around 1.3833 on Friday, trimming earlier losses as optimism around a US‑Iran cease‑fire tempered dollar strength. The move came despite a 0.9% month‑over‑month jump in US CPI and a modest rebound in Canadian employment,...
S&P 500 Extends Rally to Eight Sessions as Core CPI Miss Boosts Optimism
U.S. equities surged for an eighth consecutive session on Tuesday, driven by a core CPI reading that missed expectations. The S&P 500 closed up 0.2% to 6,825, marking a 3.6% weekly gain, as investors weighed lower‑than‑expected core inflation against lingering...
Silver Surges Over 5% to $76.70 on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Reviving Industrial Demand
Silver jumped more than 5% to $76.70 per ounce on April 8, its highest level since March 18, after the United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire. The truce eased energy‑driven inflation worries, softened rate‑rise expectations and highlighted...
China, Hong Kong Equities Climb as Data Hint Industrial Deflation May Be Ending
China's mainland and Hong Kong stock markets rose after Reuters reported data indicating that a stretch of industrial deflation may be winding down. The rally reflects renewed optimism that weaker factory output and price declines are abating, offering a new...
Somalia Eyes Oil Boon but Queries Rise on Ankara’s ‘Unfair’ Deal
Somalia is preparing for its first offshore oil drilling as Turkey’s drilling vessel Çağrı Bey arrives in Mogadishu. The 2023 production‑sharing agreement grants Turkey up to 90% cost recovery and a modest 5% royalty to Somalia, sparking accusations that the deal...
Iran War Oil-Price Shock Revives Inflation Trade and a New Stablecoin Play
The Iran‑related oil shock has pushed U.S. inflation up 0.9% in March, reigniting investor interest in inflation hedges. Michael Ashton’s USDi stablecoin aims to fill a gap in crypto by tracking the CPI rather than a fixed dollar, preserving purchasing...
Trump Says US Has 'Sweetest' Oil, 'Empty Tankers' Headed Here To 'Load Up'
President Donald Trump announced that large, empty oil tankers are sailing to U.S. ports to load what he called the nation’s "sweetest" crude, highlighting domestic supply depth as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. The claim comes as WTI crude...
Forties Blend at $147: The North Sea Physical Crude Signal That Exposes Hormuz Supply Friction Long After the Ceasefire
Forties Blend, the North Sea spot crude benchmark, spiked to $147 per barrel on April 10, 2026, creating a $50 premium over Brent futures. The record premium reflects lingering logistical constraints around the Strait of Hormuz despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire,...
Poor Must Trek Days Just to Send Money Home
My maternal grandfather was a house servant in Mumbai. Every time he had to send money back home to my grandmother and kids, he had to walk 3-4 km to reach the nearest post office. Home was a small village...
CBP's Phase One I
CBP just announced its IEEPA duty refund process. Phase One targets ~63% of eligible entries via ACE with a ~45-day processing goal. But no formal timeline on when money actually hits accounts. Key exclusions from this first phase: liquidated entries,...
Bank of England Examines How Global Financial and Lending Strategies Impact UK Economy
The Bank of England released analyses on how digital transformation, dynamic and personalized pricing, and cross‑border bank lending are reshaping the UK’s $3 trillion economy. A survey of 1,600 firms shows 21% already use market‑responsive pricing, a share expected to rise...
Hong Kong Enables Iran's Hidden Billions, Weakening U.S. Sanctions
How Hong Kong Helps the Flow of Iran’s Hidden Billions—U.S. sanctions lose their bite in a Chinese city where setting up a company and moving money is easy @austinramzy https://t.co/LUrgqUohBe https://t.co/LUrgqUohBe
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Blamed on Trump’s Tariffs
According to @UMich, the April U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index has plunged to a RECORD LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/UwrnBpKdKP
A Panicked Race for Barrels Grips the Global Oil Market
Traders in the North Sea submitted 40 bids for physical crude last week, but only four offers materialized, forcing spot cargoes to change hands at record‑high prices above $140 a barrel. The scramble for immediate supplies has spilled into distant...
Bypassing Sanctions Mirrors Abandoning the Dollar System
Blood in the water attracts sharks. Bypassing US sanctions to buy oil directly from Iran is akin to bypassing the USD system all together. Will Trump renig on foreign payments too? #TradeDeficit #FiscalDeficit
Easter Week Triggers Broad Energy Price Collapse
Third Gulf War — energy impact: (week-on-week; Apr 2 to Apr 9 due to Easter) Dated Brent oil: ⬇️ -10.9% (physical,no futures) WTI crude oil: ⬇️ -13.4% TTF EU nat gas: ...
Time to Give the Trump-Putin-Orban Axis a Slap in the Face
Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election pits long‑time premier Viktor Orban against challenger Peter Magyar, with the outcome poised to affect both the EU’s internal cohesion and Ukraine’s war effort. The article highlights that the United States and Russia, represented by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin,...
Tariffs Promised Jobs, Delivered 150,000 Job Losses
Trump said his tariffs would bring blue-collar jobs BACK TO THE US. Instead, it’s raised costs and DESTROYED MANUFACTURING JOBS. The US LOST 150,000 manufacturing and construction jobs last year. https://t.co/A9EMjCoeP3
SK's Memory Supply Vulnerable: 97% Israeli Bromine
Any Korean semis analysts out there pricing in a Korea/Israel diplomatic crisis. @zephyr_z9 @jukan05? SK relies heavily on Israeli bromine for memory I think 97% comes from them. https://t.co/Q4NeUSDrp8
Global Energy Shortages Drive Renewed Reliance on Coal
Disruptions to oil and gas flows, especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are prompting Asian and European nations to revive coal as a quick‑fix energy source. Global coal consumption has risen by roughly 1.3 billion tons since 2020, driven...
US‑Iran Talks Set for Pakistan Tonight or Tomorrow
Another round of negotiations between the US and Iran will be held tonight or tomorrow in Pakistan, per Iranian state affiliated media.
India Boosts Russian Oil Imports as Sanctions Loosen
With sanctions on Russia being temporarily lifted, India is importing Russian oil at the highest level since June 2023. One of the few benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran is that the ill-founded international sanctions regime is coming unglued. GREAT. https://t.co/AvoKEQsvds
Resource Wars and the Accelerating Big Reset
Author Willem Middelkoop argues that early 2026 events have confirmed and accelerated his 2013 “Big Reset” thesis. He contends the debt‑laden, dollar‑centric monetary system is collapsing, prompting gold to re‑emerge as a monetary anchor and the U.S. dollar to lose...
Better Mortgage Spreads Keep Rates About 1% Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.39%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.08% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
IMF Graph Misstates 1960s Defense Spending Share
Unless I am seeing things, there is something wrong with this graph in @IMFNews WEO Chp2 2026. World defense spending did no halve as a share of global gdp in the mid 1960s! Can anyone explain. Ive checked...
Political Instability to Blame for Africa’s Capital Flight, Says Lender Afreximbank
Afreximbank warns that a surge in coups and political unrest across Africa is driving capital flight and eroding investor confidence. Its 2026 African Trade and Economic Outlook notes that foreign direct investment plunged 42% to $28 billion in the first half...
Global Trade Faces Redirection Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
From Liberation Day thru the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and its supply chains being redefined, redirected, and reduced? And by how much? Supply chain risk mitigation or kicking the can down the road? And logistics? https://t.co/3oxe5s4MVA
US Agrees to Release Iranian Frozen Assets, Dismantling Sanctions
Reuters reports that Iranian sources have indicated that the US has agreed to release Iranian frozen assets. The ill-advised, counter-productive international sanctions regime is being DISMANTLED. IT'S ABOUT TIME. https://t.co/AMcZpe0Vwr
West Asia Tensions Push up Costs for India; Further Impact Hinges on Stability: Report
India’s trade with West Asia totals $220 billion in FY 25, but imports—especially energy—far outpace exports, creating a sizable deficit. Ongoing tensions in the region have already lifted logistics costs and inflation, with the report estimating that each $10 per barrel rise...
A Widening Gulf
Adam Hanieh’s essay highlights how the UAE’s wealth from oil has been transformed into a sprawling petrochemical, plastics and fertilizer empire that underpins global food and industrial supply chains. Dubai’s Jebel Ali port and its financial hub link Asia, Africa and...
China’s Bureaucracy Embraces Export Controls, Unseen Impacts Loom
China’s bureaucracy has discovered export controls and likes them, we haven’t seen all the effects yet
Global Funds Flee Indian Stocks at Record Pace on Growth Fears
Global funds have withdrawn $18.84 bn from Indian equities in just over three months, breaking the previous record set in 2025. The outflows are driven by an energy shock from the US‑Iran war and a perception that AI‑linked economies offer stronger...
Fed Studies Tariffs' Impact on Goods Inflation
The Fed has been putting out research reports trying to assess how much goods inflation can be attributed to the tariffs. https://t.co/F4ND6acO1f https://t.co/a0LGrXd9pw
Windfall Levy on Export Bound Diesel, ATF Raised
India’s Finance Ministry has sharply increased the windfall levy on export‑bound diesel to ₹55.5 per litre (about $0.67) from ₹21.5 per litre, a 158% rise, and raised the levy on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to ₹42 per litre (≈$0.51) from...
Trump Says US Forces Are 'Clearing' Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump posted that U.S. forces have begun clearing the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that all 28 Iranian mine‑dropping boats have been sunk. He reiterated claims that American actions have crippled Iran’s navy, air force, ballistic‑missile and nuclear programs....
Can Trump End the Iran War in 3 Weeks Before November?
Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, retired Air Force General John Tyger, and the author debated whether President Trump can realistically end a potential Iran war within a 2‑3‑week window before the November election. The discussion examined the...