Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The Small Business Administration has announced a rule that excludes permanent‑resident (green‑card) holders from eligibility for SBA 7(a) and 504 loans. The change eliminates a primary source of affordable credit for many immigrant‑owned small businesses, especially in states with large non‑citizen populations. Lenders that rely on SBA guarantees will likely tighten standards, threatening job creation and tax revenue. The author argues the policy contradicts decades of federal practice and could push vulnerable firms toward bankruptcy.
Trump talks "deals" with Iran while Russia & China talk about naval escorts of Iranian oil to Cuba, writes @TheMichaelEvery The US repeals carbon regs & hopes to restart Venezuelan oil output soon. Energy is being militarized Markets, sanctions & climate...
Russian commentators continue to label Central Asia as a Russian sphere of influence, but the region is asserting its independence. Over the past 35 years, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have leveraged their abundant critical minerals and transit corridors...
The episode examines how severe winter weather across Europe is forcing major box carriers to impose new emergency surcharges, with CMA CGM adding $100 per container for shipments from North Europe to India and Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd issuing similar cost warnings....
Professor Brian Bell has been appointed as the Treasury’s chief economic advisor, taking up the post on 9 March. He will serve as the principal adviser to Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister on macro‑economics and fiscal policy, overseeing the department’s...
The episode examines how the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, officially Feb 17‑23 2026, creates a six‑to‑eight‑week disruption to China’s inland trucking network, with capacity draining from mid‑January and only slowly returning by early March. It highlights the ripple effects on ocean...
European pulp markets are seeing divergent trends as bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) prices jumped $120 per tonne for January, while northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) only posted modest gains. The BEK surge is driven by supply constraints from Iberian strikes,...
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
The episode examines the robust demand for larger container ships, noting the orderbook has reached a 15‑year high at roughly 36% of the active fleet. Maersk Line is narrowing the gap with MSC by ordering eight 18,600 TEU LNG dual‑fuel vessels...
In this episode, host Eimear Daly and emerging‑market specialist Aditya Sharma break down the newly signed India‑US trade agreement, highlighting how it could boost Indian equities and strengthen the rupee by improving export competitiveness and attracting foreign investment. They then...
Rabobank analysts Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence project the USD/CAD pair to remain largely sideways throughout 2026, confined to a 1.36‑1.41 band. The outlook is driven by persistent US‑Canada trade tensions, a looming USMCA review, and a weakening U.S. dollar...
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to endorse two amendments to the ECB’s annual report, labeling the digital euro “essential” for monetary sovereignty, payment‑system resilience and universal acceptance. The first amendment passed with 438 votes, the second with 420, signalling political...
Something worth remembering if you're trying to value the stock market right now: 👇 A corporation can only profit from human labor displacement once. If by engaging in that single cost saving to beef up your bottom line you inadvertently destroy...
Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4%...
Australia’s latest carbon leakage review recommends a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), beginning with cement and clinker imports and potentially expanding to hydrogen, steel, ammonia and related products. The review, led by ANU professor Frank Jotzo, evaluated 75 trade‑exposed commodities...
The episode examines the rapid shift from AI euphoria to AI paranoia among investors, sparked by a controversial startup demo that triggered selloffs in sectors like insurance, logistics, and even impacted Apple. It also highlights the impact of recent January...
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured a decisive parliamentary majority, clearing the path for a sweeping overhaul of the nation’s energy strategy. Its manifesto pledges to lift renewable power to 20% of the mix by 2030, a dramatic rise from today’s...
Visa’s latest Spending Momentum Index shows travel as the fastest‑growing consumer category in Asia‑Pacific, expanding about 2.5 times faster than overall spend in 2025. Cross‑border card use surged as tourists adopted digital wallets, while affluent consumers generated roughly three‑quarters of...
The episode reviews China’s latest loan data released after market close, noting new yuan loans of CNY 4.71 trillion in January—significantly below the CNY 4.8 trillion forecast and far under expectations of around CNY 5 trillion. While total social financing surged to CNY...
India’s rupee ended Friday essentially unchanged, closing at 90.6350 per dollar, a slight dip from the prior session. The currency faced pressure from weak domestic equities, elevated interbank dollar demand, and maturing non‑deliverable forward contracts, while the Reserve Bank of...
Singapore is one of the world's biggest oil-trading hubs. It also LOVES to tax cars. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/singapore-s-car-tax-revenue-now-so-high-it-exceeds-fiji-s-gdp
🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump. For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been...
In a Euractiv op‑ed, Anna Wieslander and Rachel Ellehuus of RUSI argue Europe must build a NATO led by Europeans. They warn waiting for a new U.S. administration would waste critical time. The authors propose an action‑oriented process focusing on...
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
Brussels is fixing process while ignoring physics. The EU 28th corporate regime finally admits that unanimity is incompatible with speed But until green plans are scaled back & some return to Russian oil & gas supply is discussed— everything else is...
Romania’s economy entered recession in early 2024 and posted a 1.9% quarterly contraction in Q4 2025, the steepest drop since 2012. Revised data also turned Q1 2025 growth negative, prompting analysts to slash the 2026 GDP outlook from 1.4% to 0.6%. The...
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
US trade policy changes – FEOC restrictions and a 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese‑origin battery energy storage systems (BESS) – took effect on 1 January, tightening cost and compliance pressures. While Chinese lithium‑ion BESS remain marginally cheaper on equipment‑only pricing, developers...
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
Shanghai welcomed 9.36 million inbound visitors in 2025, a 39.6% year‑over‑year increase, marking a robust tourism rebound. Growth was driven by diversified source markets, notably South Korea, Russia and Southeast Asia, and by improved visa policies and airline connectivity that doubled...
🚨 UPDATE Cathie Wood just said that Bitcoin is a hedge against both inflation and the deflation that could come from the productivity shock of AI! https://t.co/LBcroO4Hst
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
The European Central Bank released its consolidated banking data for end‑September 2025, covering 336 banking groups and 2,289 stand‑alone credit institutions across the EU‑27. Total assets rose 0.95 % to €33.44 trillion, while the non‑performing loan ratio edged up to 1.97 %. Return on...
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
Algeria has begun the formal process of terminating its air services agreement with the United Arab Emirates, effectively expelling Emirates from the market. The move follows a deterioration in diplomatic ties, driven by accusations that the UAE fuels regional discord...
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Libya’s economy is NOWHERE CLOSE to its neighbor Egypt. Thanks to the US-led regime change operation in 2011, Libya is IN THE TANK. https://t.co/mnlulHdvko
1/5 The New York Fed finds that "U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025." https://t.co/X3Xz2tRn1j
Cameroon’s ship registry, now Africa’s third‑largest, surged 126% in the past year, largely due to Russian‑linked vessels adopting its flag. The fleet’s average age has risen to 32.7 years, prompting safety concerns after several high‑profile incidents. Under pressure from the EU...
The Trump administration is working to narrow its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products that companies find difficult to calculate and the EU wants reined in as part of its pending trade deal with the US https://t.co/638iBN7IU0 via @jendeben...
Poland’s economy posted a 4.0% year‑on‑year increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.8% growth recorded in Q3. Quarterly expansion accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% in the prior period, driven primarily by a surge in private consumption that...
1/7 My latest piece was written for friends who are EU policymakers or advisors. In it I argue that there is a difference between an inefficient manufacturing sector and a globally uncompetitive manufacturing sector. We shouldn't conflate the two. https://t.co/qer7BAvgnc
Poland’s GDP per capita OUTPACES Germany’s by a country mile. This growth gap is why Poland is flexing its muscles and pushing Germany around. https://t.co/78SQLlNP3o
Turkey posted a December current‑account deficit of $7.3 bn, well above the $5.3 bn forecast, pushing the 12‑month rolling deficit to $25.2 bn (about 1.8 % of GDP). The gap widened mainly because the trade balance slipped to a $‑7.4 bn deficit and primary‑income balances...
The Pentagon intercepted a tanker suspected of moving Venezuelan oil, underscoring Washington’s aggressive stance on illicit exports. Vanuatu warned users about a fake registry website, while Cameroon suspended new shadow‑fleet registrations and began deregistering existing vessels. In the tech arena,...
South Korea faces a looming labor shortage as its economically active population is projected to grow only 0.46% by 2034, creating a gap of roughly 1.22 million workers. Despite the demand for an additional 54,000 workers per year through 2029 and...
Africa’s five largest economies are now separated by razor‑thin margins, with South Africa’s $401.6 bn GDP barely outpacing Egypt’s $399.5 bn. Nigeria remains third at $334.3 bn but its ranking is highly sensitive to exchange‑rate swings. Algeria and Morocco round out the top...
