Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Kroenig Quoted in The Wall Street Journal on the US Blockade of Hormuz
Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in The Wall Street Journal discussing the United States’ consideration of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He argued the Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Iran by threatening limited strikes after diplomatic talks collapsed. The commentary highlights the strategic significance of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil passes. Kroenig’s remarks underscore the risk of escalation amid heightened U.S.‑Iran tensions.
Middle East-Linked Market Ambiguity Clouds India-US Service Contract Plans
India‑US westbound ocean carriers have scrapped planned rate increases, pulling freight‑all‑kinds (FAK) rates down as much as $500 in the past two weeks. The ongoing Middle East conflict has injected market uncertainty, prompting both carriers and beneficial cargo owners to...
Money Supply Rising, Yet Far Below Past Inflation Peaks
It is tempting to become hyper-focused on oil, but don't take your eye off of money supply when assessing inflation dynamics. Though money supply growth is accelerating across the major economies, it remains materially lower than it was in previous...
Russian Crude Oil Imports Rebound in March as PSU Refiners Left Record Volumes
India’s state‑owned refineries more than doubled their Russian crude purchases in March, lifting imports to roughly 1.98 million barrels per day from 1 million the month before. The surge helped push India’s total spend on Russian hydrocarbons to about $6.4 billion, with crude‑oil...
IMF Warns Middle East War Driving up Financial Stability Risks
The International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report warns that the Middle East conflict is fuelling inflation and tightening funding markets worldwide. Since February, equity indexes have slipped 8% while sovereign‑bond yields have surged amid spiking oil prices and rising...
Oil Prices Hit Record High in March as Refiners Try to Replace West Asian Grades: IEA
The International Energy Agency reported that crude oil prices posted their biggest monthly gain in March 2026, with North Sea Dated trading around $130 a barrel. Global oil supply dropped 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 mb/d, driven by attacks on...
The Hormuz Crisis and the Fate of the Global South
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly a quarter of global oil, a fifth of LNG and a third of fertilizer shipments, prompting the IMF to label the disruption a “global yet asymmetric” shock. Import‑dependent economies...
Big Risks Hover over Strait of Hormuz Blockade
The United States began a blockade of all commercial shipping to and from Iran on April 13, marking the first day of a new geopolitical flashpoint in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices spiked to over $105 per barrel...
Mideast Conflict Could Still Trigger Market Turmoil, IMF Warns
The International Monetary Fund warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could still trigger significant market turbulence, despite recent signs of resilience. In a blog accompanying its semi‑annual financial‑system risk report, the IMF cautioned that the current market stability should...
India’s Gems and Jewellery Exports Plunge 35% in March Amid Weak Demand
India’s gems and jewellery exports plunged 35% in March to $1.78 billion, driven by weak global demand, high gold prices and a sharp dip in diamond values. Diamond shipments fell 27% while gold jewellery exports dropped 48%, and lab‑grown diamond sales...
European Commission Proposes EU Industrial Accelerator Act Including ‘Made in EU’ and Low-Carbon Requirements, Stricter Rules for FDI in Strategic...
On 4 March 2026 the European Commission unveiled the EU Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), a sweeping proposal to lift manufacturing’s share of EU GDP to 20 % by 2035, introduce “Made in EU” and low‑carbon rules for strategic goods, and tighten foreign‑direct‑investment (FDI) screening...
UHNW Families Rebalancing Portfolios Amid Iran Fallout, Spelling Opportunity for Advisors
Ultra‑high‑net‑worth families are shifting 15‑20% of their holdings as the Iran conflict disrupts oil markets and fuels inflation and currency volatility. deVere Group reports a surge in its Family Office division, with clients rebalancing assets, jurisdictions, and governance structures. The...
How the US-Iran Conflict Is Impacting Portfolios and Advisors
The US‑Israel war with Iran has pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation and extending market volatility into 2026. Advisors, especially solo practitioners, are fielding client anxiety and revising portfolios to mitigate geopolitical risk. Chicory Wealth’s CEO Max Kulyk says his...
IMF Slashes UK Growth Forecast, Flags Stagnation
Among the G7, the IMF’s outlook for the UK is likely to attract attention due to: • A Sharp Growth Downgrade : 2026 GDP forecast has been slashed to 0.8%, risking "stall speed." • Persistent Inflation: The hope that inflation would return...
China Shock 2.0: The Flood of High-Tech Goods that Will Change the World
The Financial Times warns of a second "China shock" as Chinese firms flood global markets with high‑tech products at rock‑bottom prices. Companies like Mega‑Senway have driven sensor prices from about $30 to under $2, while China’s trade surplus topped $1 trillion...
PVH Expects Improved Tariff Mitigation Results in 2026
PVH Corp., the parent of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, expects $195 million in gross tariff costs for 2026 and plans to offset 60% of that impact, double the mitigation achieved in 2025. The company’s guidance assumes a 15% duty rate that the...
IMF Renames Baseline to “Reference Forecast” Amid Uncertainty
This is the usual summary table from the IMF’s latest WEO. Notably, the Fund has swapped its usual "baseline" terminology for a “reference forecast” paired with alternative scenarios. This shift highlights today's volatile global landscape, characterized by high uncertainty and disparity,...
ECB's Lagarde: We Are Between the Baseline and Adverse Scenarios
ECB President Christine Lagarde told investors the central bank is operating between its baseline and adverse economic scenarios. She emphasized a medium‑term outlook while monitoring data daily, stressing the need for agility and data‑dependence. Lagarde warned that the ECB will...
Stocks Rise and Oil Prices Ease as Hopes Climb for Another Round of US-Iran Talks
U.S. equities nudged closer to record highs on Tuesday as the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, leaving the index just 1% shy of its all‑time peak. Brent crude slipped 2.1% to $97.31 a barrel, buoyed by renewed optimism that Washington and...
Philip R. Lane: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Philip R. Lane, ECB Executive Board member, delivered a comprehensive briefing on the euro area’s monetary‑policy toolkit, recent balance‑sheet composition and the latest macroeconomic outlook. He highlighted that inflation, especially the non‑energy core component, remains sticky as of Q1 2026, while...
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Why Emerging Market Peers Have Outpaced a Collapsing SA
South Africa’s economy has deteriorated sharply since 1994, with unemployment climbing from 13% to roughly 32% and its nominal GDP ranking slipping to 36th worldwide. The rand has weakened dramatically, moving from R3.60 per US dollar to about R17, while...
State of Tuesday: DONALD TRUMP'S DIRE STRAITS
Washington announced a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership with Indonesia, expanding U.S. maritime domain awareness, subsurface and autonomous capabilities in the region. The move deepens American presence around the Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint that handles roughly 80% of China’s inbound...
Daily Memo: Lavrov Arrives in Beijing for Talks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing for an official visit, meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The talks will span bilateral cooperation, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing Middle‑East conflicts. The visit follows a series of high‑level exchanges that...
Péter Magyar Walks Line Between Brussels and Beijing on China Trade
Hungary’s newly elected prime minister, Péter Magyar, confirmed he will not overturn the country’s open‑door policy toward Chinese electric‑vehicle (EV) manufacturers, but he pledged tighter alignment with European Union rules. Magyar praised China’s global stature while saying any review of...
Is It Over Yet?
The piece warns that a deliberate attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a massive ecological disaster and spike oil prices. It notes Iran’s offer to suspend uranium enrichment for five years, far short of...
Euro Completes the Round Trip From the Start of the Iran War
The euro has reverted to the exchange rate it held at the start of the Iran‑War, suggesting both market resilience and a potential easing of the energy shock that has weighed on Europe. The IMF’s latest outlook projects 2024 European...
IMF Raises India's Growth Forecast to 6.5% for FY27
The International Monetary Fund has lifted its forecast for India’s FY27 growth to 6.5%, up from 6.4% in January and 6.2% in October. The revision reflects a strong 2025 performance, a cut in U.S. tariffs to 10%, and offsets the...
March Existing Home Sales Demonstrate a New Equilibrium in the Housing Market
Existing home sales slipped 3.6% in March to an annualized 3.98 million, staying within the three‑year range of 3.85‑4.35 million units. Prices rose only 1.4% year‑over‑year, mirroring flat trends in the FHFA and Case‑Shiller indexes. Inventory crept up 3% YoY but remains...
Monetary Policy Tightened in Singapore
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced a tightening of its exchange‑rate‑based monetary policy, the first adjustment since April 2022. The change follows quarterly reviews that earlier in 2025 delivered modest easings. MAS cited heightened uncertainty for growth and inflation, driven...
Bullish on Oil as Hormuz Closure Sparks Market Tension
I'm used to oil hate because, well, I'm not a permabull and normally the dooming is deeply overwrought This episode has been weird bc I'm bullish oil given THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR SIX WEEKS and now I've...
China's Export Growth Falters as Global Demand Slumps
China’s Export Momentum Slows Amid Iran War—Weaker global demand threatens a growth driver for Beijing @hannahmiao_ @TByGraceZhu https://t.co/vpepE1zohz https://t.co/vpepE1zohz
WTO Likely to Release India's Trade Policy Review Report in July
The World Trade Organization will publish India’s Trade Policy Review (TPR) in July 2026 after a recent WTO secretariat delegation visited New Delhi. India, a top‑20 global trader, is reviewed every five years under the WTO’s schedule. The review will examine...
Lagarde Reverses Stance: Europe Not Epicenter of Iran War Fallout
Lagarde: Europe NOT at epicenter of Iran war fallout. That's quite a turnaround from the Mar. 26 interview with The Economist, when she said: “We are facing a real shock…probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Iran Conflict Eases Yuan Pressure as Banks Shed $30B
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction of pressure changed in March -- The state banks look to have reduced their foreign assets by ~...
Rise In China Rare Earth Exports
China’s rare‑earth shipments rose to 62.6 thousand metric tons in 2026, up from 55.4 thousand tons in 2024 and well above the pandemic low of 35.4 thousand tons in 2020. The surge includes the highest monthly export volume since 2009, reflecting robust demand...
Canada Pauses Fuel Tax, Cutting Gas Price 10¢ per Litre
After Germany, here it comes Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend a fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend. The measure will lower gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter, and diesel by 4 Canadian cents.
Iran's Inflation ~64%, Rial up 8% Despite Claims
Startup Fortune (not Fortune magazine) claims Iran's inflation is 180% and the rial is in freefall. WRONG. I measure Iran's yearly inflation at 64%/yr. Since the war began, the rial has gained 8% vs the USD. I AM THE ONLY ACCURATE...
Geopolitics Is the Market Force—So What Comes Next?
The Middle East conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of global oil flow and sparking double‑digit price spikes in fertilizer, chemicals and plastics. The article argues that geopolitical risk is now structural, forcing firms to embed...
Weak Dollar Fuels Stock Rallies Amid Policy Shifts
This time last year also was terrible for the US dollar and great for stocks. April 7 2025: stocks rally on Trump tariffs deadline extension. March 31-Apr 11 2026: stocks rally on war ceasefire/talks
China Ramps up Export Controls Ahead of US‑China Talks
China has increased its use of export controls, underlining Beijing’s willingness to leverage its power over supply chains as Xi Jinping prepares for talks next month with US President Donald Trump. by @leahyjoseph, @cheng_leng_ & Wenjie Ding https://t.co/oGe6739GIG
Global Oil Flows Plunge as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Tanker Trade
Global seaborne crude oil shipments have plunged 16% since the Iran war, cutting daily volumes by 7.6 million barrels to 38.4 mbpd—about 9.5% of projected world production now stranded. Gulf exports collapsed, with a net loss of 9.0 mbpd after modest gains from...
IMF Warns Iran War Triggers UK's Biggest Growth, Price Shock
UK faces biggest growth and price shock from Iran war, IMF says https://t.co/OooXhvUdQo via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/8t1CXx1CDK
Dollar Slides Below 99, Signaling Eroding Confidence
DXY just broke below 99 — a 1.25-month low. Dollar weakness at this scale matters globally: commodities reprice, EM debt gets relief, US exporters benefit. But a structurally weaker $DXY also signals eroding confidence. That's the part worth watching. https://t.co/G2iZaPA5wz
HSBC Inks Dubai Partnership to Boost Capital Inflows as Bond Banker Jumps to BofA
HSBC Bank Middle East Limited signed a strategic agreement with Dubai's Department of Economy and Tourism to accelerate investment and capital inflows, part of Dubai's D33 agenda to double its economy by 2033. Within days, the bank lost Khaled Darwish,...
Upcoming Bloomberg TV Interview on Europe's Economic Outlook
Live from 16:00 CET/ 10:00 ET: Looking forward to speaking with @flacqua on @BloombergTV about the economic outlook for Europe https://t.co/zVz2cbT662
Middle East Conflict Reshapes Current and Future Energy Markets
Pleasure to open today's sessions at the Semafor World Economy in Washington In a fireside chat with @semafor's Global Managing Editor @prashantrao, I discussed the implications of the war in the Middle East for energy markets today and in the future...
Questioning Panic over Possible Hormuz Closure
"I don't get why people fret about the Strait of Hormuz being closed for six weeks when it might not be closed sometime in the future" https://t.co/2QU64RAu5W
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Cut Growth to 2%
JUST IN: IMF warns sustained Middle East conflict could drop global GDP growth to 2%
March PPI Jumps to 4%, Biggest Rise Since Feb 2023
JUST IN: March PPI inflation rises to 4%, the largest yearly gain since February 2023
WTI's $7 Drop Signals Ongoing Geopolitical Volatility
WTI crude dropped from $104 to $97.24 in 24 hours — a $7 swing in a single session. That's not a market. That's a volatility event. US-Iran breakdown + supply uncertainty = oil as a geopolitical instrument. Watch $WTI. The whiplash isn't over....