Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The episode examines the launch of Egypt’s Damietta Alliance Container Terminals (DACT) and its potential role as a relief hub for Europe’s container supply chain as Suez Canal traffic resumes. It outlines the combined 5.5 million TEU of new capacity in the east‑Mediterranean, contrasting current under‑utilisation with the risk of a “Double Influx” of ships that could congest Mediterranean ports. The discussion highlights how carriers, especially the Gemini alliance (Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd), may use Damietta’s spare headroom to transship or buffer cargo, turning surplus capacity into a strategic safety valve. Analyst insights underscore the shifting competitive dynamics among Port Said, Damietta, and Alexandria terminals.
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly called for a regime change in Iran, saying it would be the "best thing that could happen," while dispatching a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, to the Middle East. The move intensifies U.S. military pressure...
Enbridge posted record‑high 2025 core earnings, reporting adjusted EBITDA of US$14.7 billion, a 7% increase over 2024, and a 9% rise in adjusted earnings. The fourth‑quarter adjusted EPS of US$0.65 topped analyst forecasts of US$0.56. The company credited expanding pipeline takeaway...
New data from the Danish Maritime Authority shows that 292 EU‑sanctioned Russian tankers sailed through the Øresund, Great Belt and Skagerrak in 2025, confirming the Danish straits as a critical gateway for Russia’s shadow fleet. The fleet has expanded since...
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
Rapid geopolitical shifts and evolving trade patterns are redefining global shipping routes, according to DNV’s Market Views episode hosted by Jakub Walenkiewicz with maritime‑insight CEO Christopher Pålsson. The discussion highlights how short‑term disruptions—such as sanctions, regional conflicts, and supply‑chain volatility—are...
This episode surveys a whirlwind of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on Mexico’s fraught reforms under President Sheinbaum, the looming electoral shake‑ups in the region, and the resurgence of U.S. influence via Trump‑aligned policies. It highlights Mexico’s...
The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, together with Florida International University, will host the inaugural US‑Caribbean Maritime and Ports Forum in Miami on February 20, 2026. The two‑hour event gathers senior government officials, port authorities, shipping executives and financiers to discuss...
Bonds rallied as the latest CPI data showed headline inflation just below forecasts and core inflation on target, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields down to 4.07%. Shelter costs continued to ease, with owners' equivalent rent hitting a cycle low. Meanwhile, the...
Germany’s e‑commerce market generated €83.1 billion last year, attracting cross‑border sellers. Andreas Giese of Dexport warns that German shoppers prioritize trust and deliberate decision‑making over impulse purchases. Success hinges on authentic social‑media content, user‑generated proof, and a mobile‑first brand website, while...
President Iliana Iotova appointed suspended Bulgarian National Bank deputy governor Andrey Gurov as interim prime minister, invoking a constitutional rule that limits caretaker‑PM candidates to ten senior officials. Gurov’s selection follows an anti‑corruption finding that barred him from his central‑bank...
The medical device sector is grappling with a wave of new and proposed tariffs that have lifted costs for metals, electronics, and finished components throughout global supply chains. Manufacturers must decide whether to absorb these higher expenses, pass them to...
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
Economists spot early signs of recovery in the US labor market, with private payrolls accelerating, yet underlying job quality remains thin. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two 25‑basis‑point cuts, likely in June and September, as inflation stays modest....
The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2026 oversupply warning after a surprise 1.2 million barrels‑per‑day supply drop caused by cold snaps in the United States and a power‑outage‑forced shutdown at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field. Europe’s gas inventories fell to just 35 % of...
The Kaesong Industrial Complex, once a flagship of inter‑Korean economic cooperation, has remained closed since South Korea halted operations in 2016. South Korean officials are now urging a restart, but the Kim Jong Un regime shows little appetite to revive the site....
Geneva‑based Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has pushed its container capacity beyond 7.2 million TEU, cementing its lead as the world’s largest carrier with a 21.4 % share of the global fleet. The company now operates 980 vessels, 727 owned and 253 chartered,...
The latest U.S. inflation report appears modest, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ decision to assign a zero year‑over‑year change to housing components that were not surveyed during the recent government shutdown artificially depresses the CPI reading. This methodological adjustment...
U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby toured Japan and South Korea in late January, reinforcing the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy that prioritises deterrence‑by‑denial along the First Island Chain. The visits highlighted Washington’s push for allies to shoulder...
U.S. consumer price inflation in January eased to 0.2% month‑on‑month, with core CPI matching expectations at 0.3% and both headline and core year‑on‑year rates falling to four‑year lows of 2.4% and 2.5%. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat,...
Despite a cascade of wars, pandemics, social unrest and economic strain, global equity markets are soaring, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the 50,000 mark. The article argues that this disconnect is not a glitch but a structural feature:...
Maersk’s APM Terminals and Germany’s Eurogate are negotiating a partnership that could inject up to €1 billion into Bremerhaven’s North Sea Terminal. The funding aims to fully electrify the site, power it with renewables and lift capacity from 3 million to 4 million...
Eurozone preliminary GDP showed a 0.3 % QoQ rise in Q4 2025, matching expectations and nudging annual growth to 1.4 %. The United Kingdom posted a weaker 0.1 % QoQ increase, missing forecasts and pulling annual growth to 1 %. The data lifted the...
U.S. consumer price index for January rose 2.4% year‑over‑year, missing the 2.5% consensus, while month‑over‑month inflation eased to 0.2% against an expected 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.5% y/y and 0.3% m/m, in line...
Singapore’s port recorded a historic 3.22 billion gross tonnes of vessel arrivals and 44.66 million TEUs in 2025, marking 3.5% and 8.6% growth respectively over 2024. The hub remains second only to Shanghai, with Ningbo‑Zhoushan closing the gap, while contributing roughly 7%...
The episode examines why seasonal peaks, especially the pre‑Chinese New Year rush, failed to boost air‑freight rates in 2026, with global spot rates matching those of 2024 and 2025 despite differing holiday windows. Forwarders and industry experts, including Lana Radzina of...
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
U.S. consumer price index data for January showed annual inflation easing to 2.4% from 2.7% in December, missing the 2.5% market forecast. Monthly CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI remained at 2.5% year‑over‑year, matching expectations. The softer headline number nudged...
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
/file/attachments/2988/13520410_638889.jpg)
France’s new energy planning law (PPE) sets a decarbonised electricity goal of 650‑693 TWh by 2035, up from 540 TWh today, and aims for 70% of total energy consumption to come from clean power. The decree trims wind and solar targets by...
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
If AI were living up to its hype, it would be benefiting the ENTIRE ECONOMY. IT ISN'T. Profit margins outside the tech sector would be growing. THEY'RE NOT. https://t.co/GXT1r783t0
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
"Last year companies canceled $22 billion in planned investments in electric vehicle manufacturing, batteries or critical minerals in the United States...." Political sustainability limits industrial policy efficacy. https://t.co/RROrBFwACq
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
