Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
I Bond Rates Jump to 4.26% as Inflation Spikes, Sparking New Wave of Investor Demand
The Treasury’s latest inflation data pushed the variable component of Series I savings bonds to an estimated 4.26% annualized, reviving investor interest that had waned after 2022’s rate peak. Savers are turning to the inflation‑indexed bonds as stock markets wobble and gasoline prices surge, creating a new inflow of capital into the TreasuryDirect platform.
How Strategic Investment Is Redefining Economic Statecraft
Funds of funds (FoFs) are emerging as strategic tools for governments to conduct economic statecraft. By pooling capital to invest in venture funds rather than directly in individual firms, FoFs can reinforce innovation ecosystems and steer resources toward critical technologies....
Episode 442: Poland Bets on LNG and Tariff Reform to Strengthen CEE Gas Hub Status
Poland’s gas transmission operator, Gas System, is positioning the country as a central hub for Central and Eastern European (CEE) gas supplies by expanding LNG import capacity, unifying tariffs, and strengthening cross‑border corridors such as the Baltic Sea and Amber...
Spain, Portugal See Tourism Boom as Travellers Avoid Middle East
Spain and Portugal are seeing a sharp surge in summer travel demand as tourists avoid war‑torn Middle‑Eastern destinations. By early April, flight bookings to Spain rose 32% year‑on‑year and hotel searches 28%, while Portugal recorded 21% and 16% gains respectively....
Reeves Says Diplomacy Is ‘Best Economy Policy’ as UK Tax Burden to Mount
Chancellor Rachel Reeves told CNBC in Washington that de‑escalating the Middle East conflict, especially reopening the Strait of Hormuz, is the “best economic policy” for the UK. She made the remarks after the IMF warned the UK’s tax burden will...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Holds USD/Manat at 1.7 Manat per Dollar
On April 15, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) announced that the official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar remained steady at 1.7 manat per dollar. The decision, reported by Trend.az, also listed rates for the euro, Turkish lira and...
Mark Mills: Strait of Hormuz and Global Trade
War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint between Oman and Iran. The strait handles roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil each day, along with sizable volumes...
Chinese Tanker Crosses Strait of Hormuz, Testing Trump
A Chinese-flagged tanker sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, directly challenging President Donald Trump’s newly announced maritime blockade aimed at curbing Iranian oil shipments. The vessel, listed under U.S. sanctions, completed the transit into the Gulf of Oman...
Oil Prices Coming Down, But for a Worrisome Reason
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that "demand destruction" is now unfolding as oil prices soar to record levels. The recent partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil shipments, has tightened supply and...
Iran Conflict Signals Next Phase of Global Cycle
Most people look at wars as isolated events. I look at them as part of a Big Cycle that has repeated many times, so for me watching what is happening is like watching a movie I've seen many times before. What we’re seeing...
Japan Vows $10bn to Help Southeast Asia Procure Oil Amid Iran War
Japan announced a $10 billion (≈¥1.6 trillion) “Power Asia” initiative to help Southeast Asian nations procure crude oil amid the Iran‑related conflict that has spiked global prices. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the funding, channelled through state‑backed banks such as JBIC and...
3 Large-Cap Value Funds to Grab as Inflation Continues to Surge
Inflation jumped in March, with the CPI rising 0.9% month‑over‑month and the annual rate climbing to 3.3%, the highest level since May 2024. The spike was fueled by a 10.9% surge in energy prices amid heightened U.S.–Iran tensions, prompting the Federal...
International Business Briefs | India’s Gems and Jewellery Exports Hit Five-Year Low on US Sales Slump
India’s gems and jewellery exports fell 3.3% to $27.72 bn in FY 2025/26, the lowest level since 2020/21, as shipments to the United States slumped 45% to $5.09 bn after new tariffs and duties. In Europe, the Commission warned Meta that its fee‑based AI...
EU to Discuss Sanctions on Israel, Pending New Hungarian Government Position
EU foreign ministers will meet in Luxembourg on 21 April to debate trade sanctions against Israel, a move championed by Belgium, Ireland, Malta, Slovenia and Spain. The proposed measures include suspending the EU‑Israel association agreement, which would strip Israel of roughly...
From Salsa to Silence: How America First Is Emptying Cuba’s Beaches and Livelihoods
U.S. sanctions under President Trump’s “America First” policy have sharply restricted fuel and financial flows to Cuba, causing a cascade that has grounded flights and crippled the island’s tourism sector. International arrivals fell more than half in February 2026 compared...
How Big Oil Is Cashing in on Iran War - The Latest
The world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies generated more than $30 million per hour in unearned profit during the first month of the US‑Israeli war on Iran. Crude prices averaged $100 a barrel in March, driving an estimated $23 billion windfall...
Can Credit Growth and The Yield Curve Predict Financial Crises?
A new ECB working paper demonstrates that machine‑learning models, especially tree‑based ensembles, beat logistic regression in forecasting financial crises across 17 countries from 1870 to 2016. The study identifies prolonged domestic credit growth and a flat or inverted yield curve...
India’s Unemployment Rate Edges up to 5.1% in March as Urban Joblessness Rises
India’s overall unemployment rate edged up to 5.1% in March 2026, driven by a rise in urban joblessness that reached 6.8%—a 0.2‑point increase from February. Rural unemployment remained virtually flat at 4.3%. The Periodic Labour Force Survey also showed a...
S&P 500 Rebounds, Ignoring War, Oil, Inflation
the s&p 500 has fully recovered to pre-iran war levels. the strait of hormuz is still effectively closed, disrupting global supply chains. oil is still near $100. inflation just hit a three-year high. the market has decided none of that...
The Islamic Republic of Iran Should Be Held Accountable for Aiding Russia’s Crimes Against Ukraine
The United States and allied nations are urging that Iran be held criminally liable for supplying Shahed‑style drones to Russia, which have been used to strike Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. Evidence shows Tehran has produced, exported, and trained Russian operators...
Kroenig Interviewed on CNN on the Blockade of the Straight of Hormuz
Atlantic Council Vice President Matthew Kroenig appeared on CNN on April 14 to discuss the United States’ decision to block the Strait of Hormuz. He framed the move as a strategic deterrent aimed at curbing Iran’s hostile behavior in the...
Iran War Drives up African Bitumen Truck Prices
The outbreak of the Iran‑Israel‑US war has sharply lifted bitumen truck prices across sub‑Saharan Africa. In East and Central Africa, ex‑Mombasa rates jumped to KSh165‑175 per kilogram (about $1,159‑$1,313 per tonne), a 40% increase. Nigerian bulk bitumen now trades around...
Yellen Says ‘No Alternative’ to Dollar, Urges US-China Cooperation for Sake of the World
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong that a U.S.-China decoupling would erode the benefits of global trade and division of labour. She emphasized the dollar’s unrivaled reserve‑currency advantages, citing deep capital markets...
Interview with Ellen McGrattan: Business Cycles and Intangible Capital
Interview with Ellen McGrattan, a leading macroeconomist at the Richmond Fed, highlights her adoption of the Kydland‑Prescott model‑data matching approach to study business cycles and total factor productivity. She explains how intangibles—customer lists, trademarks, recipes—are omitted from balance sheets, creating a...
US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns...
ECB Faces Uncertain Outcomes over Iran
Nagel says the ECB between baseline and adverse outcomes on Iran https://t.co/A2MX9mA2pD via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/4PwzutyUl5
Bangladesh at the Crossroads: Renewables or Imported Fuel Chaos
Bangladesh, which imports roughly 60% of its energy, is feeling the squeeze of soaring global oil, coal and LNG prices triggered by the Israel‑Iran conflict. The newly elected government faces a looming $4.8 billion jump in annual fuel‑import costs and a...
Oil Price Surge Drives Japan's Industrial Slump
Yesterday, industrial production in Japan slid from 4.3% in February to -2.0% in March. HIGH OIL PRICES ARE HITTING JAPAN’S INDUSTRIAL HEARTLAND HARD. https://t.co/bTPfg5d5gV
One Belt One Road Lending Surges in 2025
Reports of the end of China’s One Belt One Road lending were very premature - 2025 was a record year for new commitments. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/KIBnk4491s
Middle East War Accelerates Regional Cross-Border Cooperation
War in the Middle East forced a surge of ocean cargo into Gulf ports, overwhelming land transport. In response, GCC countries accelerated cross‑border cooperation, slashing customs approvals from months to days and expanding real‑time coordination among ports. The UN‑mandated TIR...
Chinese Navy Escorting Iranian Oil Tests US Resolve
What happens if the Chinese navy escorts its purchases of Iranian oil out of the Gulf? Does the U.S. fire—or fold? That’s the risk baked into this blockade. #Oil #Geopolitics #Energy https://t.co/E9QhehmmvD
Mearsheimer Claims Israel Controls U.S. Policy, Fuels Endless Conflict
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the Israel Lobby: “The Israelis basically own us [the USA] —they’re driving our negotiating position... this conflict is going to go on and on because the Israelis want it to.” https://t.co/hd4zlmRYaX
Iran War, Indonesia Curbs to Support Nickel Price: Report
BMI raised its 2026 refined nickel price forecast to $16,600 per tonne, up from $15,800, citing a structurally firmer market despite a persistent global surplus. Indonesia’s decision to cap nickel ore mining quotas at 260‑270 million wet metric tonnes, down from...
Supply Gap Emerging as Last Hormuz Tankers Arrive
The tanker companies I spoke to last week confirmed that the last vessels that moved out of the Strait of Hormuz before the closure have reached their destinations at the end of March -- meaning the real supply gap is...
US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India
"The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has all but stopped Iran-controlled or dark-fleet tankers moving Iranian oil to importers mainly China and India." https://t.co/UXsjqOp2by
UK PM Starmer Says ‘Not Going to Yield’ to Trump’s Mideast War Threats
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told parliament he will not be dragged into the Iran war, despite President Donald Trump’s threat to dismantle the UK‑US trade pact that caps U.S. tariffs at 10 percent. The dispute follows Starmer’s refusal to let...
US Deficit Cuts Essential for Global Current‑account Balance
"Reducing the US fiscal deficit materially and sustainably is the most important US policy prerequisite for global current account rebalancing" This is ignored by many trade deficit hawks bc 1) it contradicts their narrative of the US as innocent victim; 2)...
Financial Repression Exposed: BOJ Carry Trade Fuels Inequality
OUT NOW - top economists don't talk about Financial Repression (FR). That ends today. @HannoLustig on: - Bank of Japan's ~¥600 Trillion carry trade - Who hurts/benefits from FR - Inequality & Debt Crises Apple 🔊https://t.co/sn51jDcuVT Spotify📽️https://t.co/SBbM4xNOY5 1/4 https://t.co/uu9WBxzeQe
Bunker Fuel Shortages Loom After US Counter Blocks Strait of Hormuz
US naval counter‑operations have effectively blocked commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the primary route for bunker fuel shipments to Asia. Analysts warn that within two to three months container lines could encounter a global shortage of low‑sulfur...
Blockade Iran: Safer Than War, No Oil Spike
If you're interested in the rationale for blockading Iran and why this won't spike oil prices, watch my discussion on this from a month ago with @paulkrugman. Economic warfare like a blockade isn't perfect, but it's infinitely preferable to actual...
Trump's Moves Price Chaos in Market Volatility
"Every time Trump escalates, markets go down. Every time he deescalates, markets go up." That's not a mystery. It's a price tag on chaos. https://t.co/i552NfcSzT
EU Numbers in the WTO — Over-Zealous Lawyers Override Common Sense
The World Trade Organization legally counts the European Union and each of its 27 member states as separate members, resulting in 28 WTO members from the bloc. This accounting explains why the WTO’s official roster lists 166 members, not 139....
Explainer: The Pivot West and the Veto that Could Stop It
Saudi Arabia is redirecting a significant share of its crude output toward Europe, reducing shipments to Asian markets as European refiners seek to replace Russian supplies. The shift, estimated at roughly two million barrels per day, reflects higher spot prices...
Five Comments on US vs China -April 2026
The April 2026 newsletter from Boz examines the intersecting dynamics of the Trump administration’s policies, China’s growing influence, and Latin America’s strategic positioning. It frames the region as a contested space on a global chessboard, where shifts in U.S.-China relations...
Trump Vows No Fed Probe Drop, Threatens Post-Term Powell Fire
Trump tells Bartiromo he doesn't want to drop any Fed probe because he thinks the cost overruns need to be examined. He says Tillis's threat to delay Warsh's confirmation isn't serious... and if it is, he'll fire Powell after Powell's term...
U.S. and Iran Inch Toward Framework Deal to End War, U.S. Officials Say
U.S. and Iranian negotiators are moving toward a framework agreement that could end the war before the April 21 ceasefire expires, with Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey mediating. Behind the scenes, Vice President Kamala Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner have been exchanging...
Tech Trends Meet Macro Data in Essential Graph
Because it combines technological waves with macroeconomic quantities, this is such an important graph (quibbles about quantification aside). More on this in the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/mIjJngmXKU
CBP Preps Tariff Refund Portal for April 20 Launch
U.S. Customs and Border Protection will activate its dedicated IEEPA tariff refund portal, CAPE, on April 20 at 8 a.m. EDT. The system will allow importers to submit refund requests electronically, with 82% already signed up for e‑payments. CBP estimates about $127 billion...
Trump Threatens Another Major Firing
President Donald Trump intensified his campaign against Federal Reserve leadership, warning he will fire Chair Jerome Powell if a new chair is not confirmed soon. He has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor, but Senate Banking Committee...
USTR Section 301 Probe Called Pre‑Planned Tariff Sham
Bessent again confirms that USTR's "investigations" under Section 301 will be a reverse-engineered sham pre-determined to reproduce Trump's illegal IEEPA tariff wall: https://t.co/rvwEiNT9tw