Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has been abolished, and outbound remittances for family support are now capped at $3,000. These changes follow the July 2024 decision to float the birr, a move tied to a $10.7 billion IMF‑World Bank support package. The reforms aim to ease e‑commerce payments, boost investor confidence, and reduce long‑standing FX bottlenecks.
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
China is accelerating the rollout of its interest‑bearing digital yuan (e‑CNY) across Southeast Asia, launching cross‑border pilots such as the China‑Laos settlement system and expanding access through commercial banks. The People’s Bank of China’s new management framework aims to turn...
Bank of America’s February survey shows investor exposure to the U.S. dollar is at its most bearish since early 2012, marking a record underweight stance. Historically, a weaker dollar has acted as a bullish tailwind for bitcoin, but since early...
A new report from the Committee for Economic Development warns that the United States’ national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, matching the size of the economy and rising rapidly. The report urges Congress to create a bipartisan fiscal commission to devise...
Europe faces heightened risk of a broader NATO‑Russia confrontation as the Ukraine war drags on. Over the past four years, NATO allies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, while European nations...
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb warns that the West’s last chance to shape a cooperative world order hinges on listening to the global South. He argues that Western sanctions on Russia and confrontational policies toward China alienate billions, eroding the West’s moral...
Walmart‑owned Sam’s Club is expanding in China by deepening localisation, offering China‑specific products such as ginseng, copper‑gourd ornaments, and right‑sized private‑label packs. The chain opened ten new stores in 2025, bringing its footprint to 63 locations and shifting focus to...
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is weighing a restart of official development assistance (ODA) loans to Pakistan after a ten‑year hiatus. The move reflects improving macro‑economic indicators, including steadier growth and reduced fiscal stress. JICA’s decision will be coordinated with...
The episode examines the current U.S. housing market inflection point, highlighting softened builder confidence, persistently tight resale inventory, and the potential impact of a credible rate‑cut cycle on margins and incentives. It discusses policy initiatives aimed at streamlining permitting and...
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics rebased its Consumer Price Index to a 2024 base year, pulling headline inflation down from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.15% by December 2025. Critics argue the technical decline masks persistent real inflation, with food prices still...
Nigeria’s economy is structured to reward navigating bureaucratic friction rather than boosting productivity, efficiency, or innovation. World Bank data shows firms spend over 40% more time on regulations than the regional average, creating a thriving informal ecosystem of brokers, fixers...
Uganda’s eight lake ports, managed by state‑owned Uganda Railways Corporation, are crippled by illegal land encroachments, military occupations, and climate‑related water level shifts. Key facilities such as Port Bell and Lambu Port face stalled redevelopment despite an African Development Bank...
India's textile and apparel exports fell 3.75% in January 2026, dropping to $3.27 billion from $3.40 billion a year earlier, primarily due to U.S. tariffs that remained until February 7. Cotton yarn, fabrics and handloom products declined over 4%, while carpet and jute...
U.S. Treasury rates slipped across the curve in the week ending February 13, 2026. The 30‑year yield fell 0.16%, while the benchmark 10‑year dropped 0.18% to 4.04%. The 3‑year note settled at 3.43%. The declines reflect modest easing in market...
In this brief episode, the host highlights a recent surge in API2 (Northwest Europe) thermal coal futures for March delivery, which have risen roughly $5 per metric tonne over five trading sessions, briefly breaching $108/mt before settling near $107.50/mt. The...
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
Brokerage houses have highlighted five Indian equities that could deliver 10‑40% returns by 2026. Motilal Oswal sees Indraprastha Gas (IGL) rising 41% to ₹235 and Siemens Energy up 31% to ₹3,600. Citi maintains a Buy on Lupin with a 15% upside,...
Bank of America’s FX sentiment survey shows net US dollar exposure at a record underweight, the most negative level since the survey began in January 2012. Short positions have surged to extreme levels, surpassing the lows recorded in April 2023....
Sir John Templeton’s adage that the best buying opportunities arise at peak pessimism is highlighted as a timeless investing principle. The article notes that widespread fear compresses valuations, allowing strong companies to be bought at discounts, while emphasizing the need...
Former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi says the central bank is most likely to raise rates in April rather than March, waiting for clearer wage and inflation data. The BOJ’s December hike to 0.75% marked the first move...
🧐This is nonsense hype from the Center for the Study of Democracy. Yet CNN did not bother to check the validity of their claims or ask other researchers. Here's why: 💥Many European countries, including France, buy LNG from Russia. 💥The US and...
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A
Indonesia may deploy 1,000 troops to Gaza as early as April, part of a UN‑mandated International Stabilization Force that could expand to 8,000 soldiers by June. The decision rests with President Prabowo Subianto, who is also set to attend President...
Reässessing the “West” from John Winthrop to Marco Rubio: **From Plato to NATO to MAGA: Marco Rubio’s Myths & the Real "Western Alliance”** 2026-02-16 Mo
🇰🇭#Cambodia's payment infrastructure: Outsourced to overseas vendors, platforms and foreign-owned banks. How to maintain the country's sovereignity?
China’s operating power capacity from non‑fossil sources surpassed fossil‑fuel capacity for the first time, reaching 52 % of the total in February 2026. The achievement reflects a decade of aggressive solar and wind deployment, backed by the world’s largest clean‑energy supply chain....
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
The European Union is considering adding Georgia’s Black Sea port of Kulevi to its 20th sanctions package, accusing it of facilitating Russian crude shipments that fund the war in Ukraine. The draft targets four ports, marking the bloc’s first move...
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
South Korean Sinokor now controls 120 oil tankers When one buyer controls the tradable fleet, charterers panic-book, freight spikes, and shocks bleeds into physical oil prices and spreads. https://t.co/Z2GsMyfbtl #oil #tankers #VLCC #shipping #freight #supplychain #sanctions #geopolitics #markets #energy
In this episode, Jeremy Grantham discusses the persistent risk of bubbles in today’s market, emphasizing that while transformative tech narratives—especially around AI—can be genuine, they often inflate valuations beyond realistic expectations. He warns that the real bubble may lie in...
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations starting May 1, 2026, expanding the preferential regime beyond the continent’s least‑developed economies. The zero‑tariff policy applies to every African country that maintains diplomatic ties with Beijing and is paired with a...
New episode 🎙️ Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins me to break down 2026 macro: resilient momentum, inflation + earnings “leaking” through the system, tariffs, geopolitics, Fed uncertainty, and what to watch if rates spike. https://t.co/OPTdLbcGgJ
Japan’s nuclear reactors continue to come back online. This is a major positive for consumers, businesses, and the environment, as it increases the supply of cheap energy, and reduces reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels. This dynamic should also support the...
U.S. macro data are aligning for a potential soft landing, with core CPI easing to 2.5% year‑over‑year and unemployment slipping to 4.3% in January. While inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the Fed’s preferred gauge remains near...
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
Asian equities opened muted on Tuesday as holiday‑thin trading reduced volumes across the region. Futures indicated a slight rise for Australia and a modest dip for Japan, while the Euro Stoxx 600 remained flat. The yen slipped to around 153 per...
Suriname’s GranMorgu project, a $10.5 billion offshore development by TotalEnergies and APA, targets 760 million barrels and is projected to generate $26 billion in revenue. The field is slated for commissioning in 2028, roughly twice the timeline Guyana achieved for its Stabroek Block....
"Seeing lower inflation is a narrative violation for many people in the digital asset space." @ramahluwalia https://t.co/mCyinRw3Uv
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
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President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the withdrawal of roughly 700 South African soldiers from the MONUSCO mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ending a 27‑year peace‑keeping presence. He simultaneously ordered the South African National Defence Force to support the police...
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The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) has released a consultation paper proposing to scrap the prime lending rate (PLR) and use the repo rate, known as the SARB policy rate (SPR), as the benchmark for loan pricing. The PLR currently...
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now. 1. Global vs US rotation 2. Top in tech stocks For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change... https://t.co/6DhUXusR6C
On February 16, 2026, Iran announced a series of naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as a move to “control” the strategic waterway. The drills follow the U.S. Navy’s decision to station a second aircraft carrier in...
Canada announced a multi‑billion‑dollar shift to fund domestic defense manufacturing, moving away from traditional purchases from U.S. defense firms. The policy signals a growing rift in the historically close Canada‑U.S. security partnership. Officials framed the move as a boost for...
