Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Russia’s Baltic Sea ports are encased in the thickest ice in 15 years, forcing non‑ice‑class vessels to wait for ice‑breaker escorts. The ice surge has already cut oil exports from Primorsk by roughly one‑third, and waiting times for convoys have lengthened by up to a week. Moscow is redeploying Arctic ice‑breakers such as the Sibir and Murmansk to boost the fleet to six vessels by month‑end. If ice thickens further, key terminals will bar all non‑ice‑class ships from March 1.
French authorities released the oil tanker GRINCH after its owner paid a multi‑million‑euro penalty for sanctions evasion. The vessel, seized in the Alboran Sea in January, was suspected of operating under a false Comoros flag as part of Russia’s shadow...
General Mills is feeling the squeeze as consumers trade down to cheaper private‑label cereals and pet foods. Recent price cuts lifted unit volumes, but the gains were insufficient to offset margin erosion. The shift reflects broader post‑pandemic tightening of discretionary...
"Iran says it temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz as it held more indirect talks with the US." https://t.co/Ek0ckZEw6N Iran announced the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuzon Tuesday for live fire drills in a rare show of force as its...
The IMO Pollution Prevention and Response Sub‑Committee (PPR 13) in London signaled a shift from static emissions limits to performance‑based metrics that evaluate how ships are operated throughout their lifecycle. Discussions highlighted tighter scrutiny of biofouling, Arctic black‑carbon emissions, scrubber wash‑water...
A merchant vessel near Aden, Yemen, encountered armed skiffs that fired warning shots, later identified as a local militia rather than Houthi forces or pirates. The UK Maritime Trade Operations downgraded the event to suspicious activity after confirming no direct...
The Basel III regulatory package, delayed to a full 2027 rollout, tightens capital quality, leverage and liquidity requirements for banks worldwide. African banks risk higher capital costs because their sovereign debt is risk‑weighted more heavily, potentially limiting credit to the...
U.S. Treasury bonds extended last week’s rally by a few basis points in early domestic trading, though the advance faded later in the session. Market participants attribute part of the prior week’s rise to defensive positioning ahead of a three‑day...
Global demand for copper, driven by AI, renewable energy and electric vehicles, is spurring a rapid expansion of Zambia’s mining sector. Since 2022, more than $12 billion has been poured into the industry, lifting 2024 output by roughly eight percent to...
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December 2025, the highest level since 2021, while wage growth slowed to 4.2% and job vacancies remained flat. Morgan Stanley research shows AI is already reshaping the labour market,...
Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trade agenda, saying it marks a decisive break from the Congress era of policy paralysis. He highlighted nine free‑trade agreements signed since 2014 that give India preferential access to 38 developed economies and...
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two‑thirds majority in the lower house, giving Prime Minister Fumio Takahashi a strong personal mandate and near‑total legislative control. The win enables swift policy action, including the start of constitutional amendment proceedings to...
Rwanda’s mineral exports jumped 46.2% in 2025, driven by soaring tin, tungsten and tantalum prices and increased mechanised mining. The surge helped narrow the country’s trade deficit from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, with raw tin even achieving a positive balance with...
Somalia has been granted official authorization to adopt and print the East African Community (EAC) e‑Passport, a key step in its regional integration. The decision was handed to Somalia’s Minister of Internal Security and the Director‑General of Immigration in Dar...
India and the United States announced a trade deal that lowers Indian export tariffs from 25% to 18% and removes the extra 25% levy on Russian crude. In return, New Delhi has pledged to buy $500 billion worth of U.S. goods,...
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
Iran says it has “understanding on principles” with the US That was always the most likely outcome. Trump won't risk higher oil prices into an election cycle, writes @Ole_S_Hansen The oil market correctly judges his hawkish rhetoric as theater. #oil #Brent #Iran #geopolitics...
Mexico's tourism sector reached an all‑time high in 2025 with 98.2 million international visitors, a 13.6% rise over 2024 and the largest total ever recorded. Foreign‑exchange earnings climbed to $34.99 billion, while overnight stays increased 6.1% to 47.8 million. The record underscores strong...
How many years away are we from the third generation of auto bailouts being on the table?
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
The African Union’s 2019 African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was built on eight regional economic communities, yet integration progress remains sluggish. A new analysis identifies four core obstacles: lingering colonial dependencies, the predominance of informal cross‑border trade, the tendency...
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
France’s urea imports surged to 1.15 million tonnes in the July‑December 2025 period, up from 842,000 tonnes a year earlier, as buyers rushed to stock ahead of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). December shipments more than doubled the three‑year monthly...
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
I disagree, but I don't think David is alone in this. To me, the biggest risk of confusing a temporary labor supply shortage that drives up inflation with full employment was that it would undermine actual full employment. We are...
A member of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has secured a contract to ship 5,000 tonnes of basmati rice to a United States buyer. The agreement arrives shortly after the India‑US trade pact lowered tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to...
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
EU consumer demand for low‑value imports is reshaping the region’s ecommerce landscape. In 2025, 5.9 billion parcels valued at €150 or less entered the bloc, representing 98% of import volume but less than 5% of total value. Roughly one‑third of EU...
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
Russia’s navy chief warned European powers of retaliation if Russian vessels are seized, underscoring heightened maritime tensions amid over 30,000 sanctions. Rosatom announced it has freed Siemens from the Hungarian Paks II nuclear contract and is scouting replacement equipment. Despite U.S....
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
Housing affordability remains a pressing concern, with 65% of U.S. households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2026. Elevated mortgage rates amplify the impact of even modest home‑price increases, pushing more families out of the market. The National...
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
The United Nations Command (UNC) and South Korea are locked in a legal dispute over who can approve access to the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). While the 1953 Armistice assigns entry authority to the UNC commander, Seoul’s National Assembly is...
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
As @RayDalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund told @TuckerCarlson on central bank digital currencies: "There will be no privacy... all transactions will be known... and if you're politically disfavored, you could be shut off." https://t.co/3H4Lcz4ysb
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
Kennedy Wilson agreed to a $1.5 bn CEO‑led buyout, offering a 10.2% premium and targeting a Q2 2026 close. Genuine Parts announced a split into two publicly traded entities—Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group—set to finalize in Q1 2027 after an activist‑driven settlement. Blackstone‑backed...
Canada’s annual CPI slipped to 2.3% in January 2026, easing from a three‑month peak of 2.4% and landing just below market forecasts. The trimmed‑mean core rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest level since April 2021, indicating waning underlying price pressure....
The United States condemned the 20‑year sentence handed to Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai but its traditional punitive toolkit—sanctions and revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status—has done little to restore the city’s autonomy. Lawmakers are now proposing legislation that could...
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
GBP/JPY slipped below the 210.00 psychological level, trading around 207.28 and marking a near two‑month low. The decline follows weaker UK labour‑market data that has pushed market consensus toward two Bank of England rate cuts this year, with the first...
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) is counting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup to revive U.S. travel after three consecutive quarters of declining room revenues. U.S. RevPAR fell 2% in Q4, lagging rivals Hilton and Marriott, while growth in Europe, the...
