Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
In this episode, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy examines the stark divergence between the US equity market, which remains highly dispersed and volatile, and Europe’s rally driven by record inflows. He highlights the lingering uncertainty in FX markets after a squeeze on USD shorts, focusing on EUR/USD dynamics and the surprising, modest uptick in the German Manufacturing PMI – the first green reading in years. Hardy also discusses the broader implications of these trends for investors, emphasizing the need to monitor macro data and capital flows across regions.
Argentina’s sweeping fiscal, monetary and regulatory reforms have lifted growth above 5% in 2025 and cut inflation to around 30%, while the budget has balanced for two years. Yet labour market rigidity—high severance costs, a steep tax wedge and pervasive...
This week’s investment roundup highlighted three interlinked themes: a resurgence in unemployment, accelerating consolidation among asset‑management firms, and a surge in semi‑liquid fund inflows. Unemployment edged to 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting managers to boost cash buffers and reassess risk models....
Western Asset Diversified Income Fund (WDI) trades at a 3.04% discount to NAV and offers a 12.41% yield, positioning it as a high‑yield income vehicle. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward high‑yield corporate bonds and a sizable floating‑rate component,...
Brazil’s foreign trade committee approved five‑year anti‑dumping duties on a wide range of Chinese steel products after a 2024 investigation revealed pricing below market levels. The duties range from US$323 to US$670 per ton for cold‑rolled coil and US$285 to...
The 2026 Certainty Project surveyed CFOs of U.S. middle‑market firms (revenues $100 M‑$1 B) and found overall uncertainty stable, but a sharp split between goods and services sectors. Tariff policy shifts and supply‑chain exposure pushed high‑uncertainty among goods producers up 27% year‑over‑year,...
In this episode, YJ Lee, founder of the Arcane Green Metal Fund, explains why the July 2024 lithium price dip was a prime buying window and projects a conservative 4.6 Mt lithium demand by 2030, driven by a 33% annual growth...
“Ukraine could export several billion dollars of military goods and services this year after authorising its first wartime foreign sales and is considering introducing a tax on those exports, a senior Ukrainian defence official said. Earlier this month, the state commission...
The Worldpanel by Numerator report projects Philippine FMCG spending to grow only 3‑4% in 2026, a sharp deceleration from last year’s 5.2% rise. The slowdown reflects weaker GDP growth, now seen at 5.3% versus an earlier 6% estimate, and higher...
The episode examines how Gulf states are moving beyond a hedging strategy toward Iran, recognizing that Iran’s internal turmoil now directly threatens their security and economic interests. It argues that reliance on crisis avoidance and U.S. guarantees is insufficient, and...
India and the United States are moving toward an interim trade agreement that is expected to be signed in April, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced. Negotiators will convene in Washington from Feb 23 to finalize the legal text, converting a...
Rising US‑Iran tensions are boosting the dollar as oil prices climb, reviving its safe‑haven appeal. The market now assigns a 60% probability to a US strike on Iran, which could lift Brent to $75‑76 and push EUR/USD down toward 1.16....
Investors face heightened global volatility in 2026 as leading central banks diverge—while the Fed and BoE continue rate cuts, the ECB sits near neutral and the BoJ tightens. Geopolitical flashpoints around the United States add safe‑haven demand, further weakening the...
Danang’s 2045 master plan re‑imagines the city as a megacity and international financial centre, integrating coastal, mountainous and border zones. The Danang International Financial Centre (IFC) began operations in early 2026, focusing on digital finance, asset tokenisation and green‑finance solutions....
The U.S. dollar stayed firm in quiet Asian markets while heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed WTI crude above $67, its highest level since last August. Gold and silver edged higher but lacked sustained buying, reflecting selective hedging. Meanwhile, the UK reported...
The Trump administration unveiled its Maritime Action Plan, introducing a universal port fee on all foreign‑built vessels that would be calculated on import cargo weight rather than net tonnage. Revenue projections range from $66 billion to $1.5 trillion over ten years, while...
Ireland’s central bank warned that the country must deepen economic resilience as it enters 2026, despite current strength. Governor Gabriel Makhlouf and Deputy Governor Vasileios Madouros outlined five domestic priorities, including targeted infrastructure, stronger indigenous businesses, fiscal buffers, household market...
2025 saw Southeast Asia split between export‑driven growth and contraction. Vietnam and Singapore recorded strong export gains despite U.S. tariff volatility, while the Philippines and Thailand were battered by severe weather events and political instability, dragging their economies down. The...
Apollo Global Management’s CEO Marc Rowan told Nikkei that Japan’s corporate finance market is becoming more dynamic than London’s, prompting Apollo to expand its private‑credit platform in the country. He highlighted the need for long‑dated funding to support infrastructure, energy...
Myanmar’s December‑January 2025‑26 election was conducted solely in areas under junta control, cementing the military’s claim to power while excluding large swaths of the population. The vote did little to curb the civil war, as resistance forces—including the People’s Defence...
A $4.2 bn transaction will see Germany’s Hapag‑Lloyd acquire Israeli carrier ZIM, then spin off its Israeli operations into a new entity controlled by FIMI. The deal, which preserves 16 vessels for direct Israeli routes, triggered protests and a strike as...
Vietnam aims to build an international financial centre by drawing on global precedents such as Dubai’s DIFC, China’s Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and Kazakhstan’s AIFC. Experts stress that independent, long‑term regulation, niche specialization in digital and green finance, and adaptive legal...
Vietnam and the United Kingdom have upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest tier in Vietnam’s foreign‑policy framework. The deal follows Party General Secretary To Lam’s October visit to Britain and opens cooperation in politics, security, trade, education...
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal launched the ₹25,060‑crore Export Promotion Mission (EPM), a six‑year programme designed to boost outbound shipments and simplify export processes. The initiative consolidates multiple support schemes into a single, digitally driven framework aimed at micro, small...
Navios Maritime Partners announced two long‑term bareboat‑in contracts for Japanese‑built capesize vessels, with purchase options valued at roughly $134.3 million and an effective 6% interest rate. The ships, fitted with scrubbers, are slated to join the fleet in late 2028 and...
THREAD 🧵I know everyone is very excited about aliens this morning, but I ask you, is it really as exciting as super wonky insights on dollar liquidity plumbing, Federal Reserve balance sheet policy, and stablecoin statecraft? I think not. I...
Nigeria's federal government ordered ministries to defer 70% of the 2025 capital budget to 2026, limiting new projects to prioritize existing ones amid weak revenues. The Independent Corrupt Practices Commission raided former Kaduna governor Nasir El‑Rufai’s Abuja home as he remains...
India’s flash Composite PMI rose to 59.3 in February, its strongest level in three months, driven by a surge in manufacturing activity. Total new orders grew at the fastest pace since November, pushing output to a four‑month high, while services...
Afghanistan has re‑emerged as a venue for great‑power competition below the threshold of war, with China pursuing cautious economic engagement focused on mineral extraction and limited infrastructure projects. U.S. analysis shows Chinese contracts have underperformed and remain exploratory, leaving a...
Africa’s growth potential is hampered by a $350 billion SME financing gap and annual infrastructure needs of $130‑170 billion, far exceeding current investment. While the continent’s population tops 1.5 billion and GDP surpasses $3 trillion, capital flows remain fragmented and short‑term. The article argues...
KPMG UK analysts say the latest labour market data show wage growth slowing to 4.2% and unemployment edging up to 5.2%, signalling a cooling jobs market. The firm forecasts pay growth will dip to around 3% by year‑end and expects...
A viral post claimed Google’s $4 trillion market capitalisation exceeds India’s GDP, prompting entrepreneur Sanjeev Bikhchandani to debunk the analogy. He explained that market cap is a stock measure reflecting investor expectations, while GDP is a flow metric tracking annual economic...
China’s medical tourism is gaining traction as foreign patients praise rapid, affordable care in megacities like Shanghai and Beijing. While the absolute number of inbound patients remains modest, industry insiders see a growing pipeline driven by visa‑free entry, expanding international...
India’s economy is gaining traction through robust digital public infrastructure and maturing regulatory frameworks, positioning it as a distinct asset class for global investors. The latest Union Budget underscores this shift by offering a 20‑year tax holiday and a flat...
Blue Owl Capital announced the sale of $1.4 billion of assets across three credit funds and permanently halted redemptions in one fund to return capital and reduce leverage. The announcement triggered a broad sell‑off in listed alternative‑asset managers such as Apollo,...
In this emergency interview on BFM 89.9 Malaysia, The Macro Butler warned that a combination of rising oil prices and increasing unemployment could derail the Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2026, bolster the US dollar, and pressure retail stocks...
The Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF (RSBT) posted a 12.25% year‑over‑year price gain after a tough 2022‑23 inflation cycle. The fund allocates capital between the AGG bond ETF and a suite of trend‑following managed‑futures strategies, positioning it as...
The Indian rupee slipped to 90.95 per U.S. dollar in early Friday trade, down 27 paise from its previous close. The decline was driven by a firmer dollar, higher Brent crude at $71.77 a barrel, and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Domestic...
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Feb 19, focusing on cooperation in critical minerals, energy, counter‑terrorism and potential American investment. The discussion also highlighted Pakistan’s backing of President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan...
The Bank of Japan has ended its ultra‑easy stance, pushing policy rates to the highest level in decades and pricing in another hike. Higher domestic yields are likely to trigger repatriation of Japanese savings, cutting the flow of low‑cost funding...
India's infrastructure sector posted a 4% year‑on‑year revenue contraction in Q3 FY26, driven by eroding order books, payment delays, prolonged monsoons and construction bans. Average EBITDA margin slipped 40 basis points to 10.1%, while adjusted PAT margin fell to 5.2%....
The STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS are right for a multi-year bull energy market, says @ericnuttall That doesn't mean it's started or that it will be a straight line back to $90-$100 oil prices. Prices will remain volatile, cyclical, and politically distorted — even...
UK retail sales begin the year with the fastest growth in 20 months https://t.co/GPGNaZk4Oa via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/kAm5UcAWvQ
The White House released America’s Maritime Action Plan, a sweeping strategy to strengthen the U.S. maritime sector through regulatory reform, infrastructure investment, and workforce development. A central pillar targets the elimination of redundant, obsolete, or overly burdensome regulations, echoing Offshore...
US-China chip trade restarts with tariffs and restrictions creating high-risk supply chain uncertainty for @nvidia and @AMD #ChipWar #AIChips #USChinaTrade #H200 #TSMC #ExportControls #AIOverwatchAct #ChipSupplyChain #Trump #BISRules #GeopoliticalRisk #TechTariffs #Huawei #LLMs
#PakWatch🇵🇰: 125 international companies are ceasing operations in Pakistan. PAK = CORRUPT = 3RD WORLD https://t.co/tmHXxbtj8I
Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven primarily by renewed central‑bank buying and modest private‑investor inflows linked to Federal Reserve rate cuts. The forecast assumes a conservative base case with...
*TAKAICHI:THERE IS A DEARTH OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN JAPAN Takaichi dropping truth bombs. Starts of with the biggest
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
