Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Jim Cramer highlighted ten market catalysts for Friday, Feb 20, ranging from macro data to individual stocks. Weak Q4 GDP growth at 1.4% pushed futures lower, while Texas Roadhouse rallied over 3% on a strong Q1 outlook. GE Aerospace received a buy initiation with a 27% upside target, and Klarna reported a disastrous quarter, prompting sharp price‑target cuts. Other notable moves included Blue Owl loan sales, CrowdStrike’s target reduction, and Live Nation’s earnings beat.
Ocean Alliance is injecting targeted capacity into Vietnam and Thailand in its Day 10 network update, turning ports like Haiphong and Laem Chabang into core deep‑sea origins. The shift adds four trans‑Pacific services to Haiphong and doubles West‑Coast sailings from Laem Chabang, while...
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
India extended permission for four Russian marine insurers for one month, allowing them to continue covering tankers calling at Indian ports. The extension comes as India remains the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude in 2025, while facing U.S. pressure...
The European Commission is repositioning itself as a “Geopolitical Commission,” aiming to reclaim control over technology regulation. The strategy, outlined in Benjamin Farrand’s book *Geopolitical Union*, targets standards, micro‑chip access, online platform oversight, industrial data, and artificial intelligence. By blending...
The European Central Bank’s latest focus piece finds euro‑area property investment has likely bottomed out in late 2024, with a brief, modest rebound in early 2025 that quickly faded. After a sharp decline that began in 2022, housing investment remains about 7 %...
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
Pending home sales in January 2026 fell 0.8% month‑over‑month, despite mortgage rates slipping to a six‑year low of 6.01% for the 30‑year fixed loan. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun notes that the rate drop makes 5.5 million households newly mortgage‑eligible, yet...
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
South Africa’s commodity surge—gold up 65% and platinum 125%—is fueling a boom on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with mining firms delivering double‑digit returns. The JSE’s recent rule changes, cutting shareholder approval thresholds from 75% to 50% and aligning disclosure standards,...
The Rock May Be Too Hot - Gold vs. Commodities - Inflation is notably absent from gold's parabolic rally, which may suggest a too-hot rock if history is a guide. From a base of 100 in 1964, gold in terms...
WiseTech Global and Hapag-Lloyd have launched a trial that equips the carrier’s more than two million containers with IoT smart devices, delivering real‑time location updates to WiseTech’s CargoWise platforms. The pilot processes millions of data points daily and introduces a...
Neal and Toby examine why the U.S. trade deficit continues to grow despite the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policy, highlighting the limited impact of tariffs on the broader balance of payments. They then shift to a family dispute over the...
President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies continue to cast the European Union as weak and misguided, a theme echoed at both Davos and the Munich Security Conference. The article counters this narrative, highlighting the EU’s social‑market model and its...
P&I clubs have recorded a ten‑year peak in marine liability claims, resulting in a $98 million underwriting loss over the past three years. The surge is driven primarily by lithium‑ion battery fires on vessels carrying electric vehicles and other battery‑powered cargo,...
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
The episode examines the impact of the 43‑day government shutdown on U.S. GDP reporting, noting that growth is still projected to be robust despite the delay. It discusses emerging signs that higher‑income households are curbing discretionary spending and outlines what...
The U.S. restaurant sector enters 2026 facing a steep cost squeeze, with food and labor expenses 30% above 2019 levels. Operators have raised menu prices 31% since 2020, yet profit margins remain tight at just 3‑5%. Consumer demand is shifting...
Milton Friedman argued that free immigration clashes with a welfare state, but his stance was more nuanced: he viewed illegal immigration as beneficial because it limits immigrants' access to public benefits. The article notes that most U.S. immigrants are of...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a Venezuela policy that puts oil reconstruction ahead of democratic elections. In a Fox News interview he pledged at least $100 billion from American oil firms to rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure, with the United States...
Recent academic research sharpens the tools investors use to forecast long‑term returns and market risk. Rui Ma et al. show that a market‑cap‑weighted Component CAPE ratio aligns prices and earnings, delivering out‑of‑sample R² above 50 %. Javier Estrada confirms that valuation multiples...
Iran’s economy is spiraling under soaring inflation, unemployment and renewed U.S. sanctions, stoking widespread public discontent. The Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis that could trigger either systemic reform or outright collapse. Analysts warn that without a shift toward moderate...
The episode examines why the UK stock market is outpacing the US in 2026, highlighting insider trades at Raspberry Pi and M&S, and a surprising AI prospect in a Japanese toilet firm. Charlene Young warns listeners about fake celebrity investment ads...
In this episode, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy examines the stark divergence between the US equity market, which remains highly dispersed and volatile, and Europe’s rally driven by record inflows. He highlights the lingering uncertainty in...
Argentina’s sweeping fiscal, monetary and regulatory reforms have lifted growth above 5% in 2025 and cut inflation to around 30%, while the budget has balanced for two years. Yet labour market rigidity—high severance costs, a steep tax wedge and pervasive...
This week’s investment roundup highlighted three interlinked themes: a resurgence in unemployment, accelerating consolidation among asset‑management firms, and a surge in semi‑liquid fund inflows. Unemployment edged to 5.2% in Q4 2025, prompting managers to boost cash buffers and reassess risk models....
Western Asset Diversified Income Fund (WDI) trades at a 3.04% discount to NAV and offers a 12.41% yield, positioning it as a high‑yield income vehicle. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward high‑yield corporate bonds and a sizable floating‑rate component,...
Brazil’s foreign trade committee approved five‑year anti‑dumping duties on a wide range of Chinese steel products after a 2024 investigation revealed pricing below market levels. The duties range from US$323 to US$670 per ton for cold‑rolled coil and US$285 to...
The 2026 Certainty Project surveyed CFOs of U.S. middle‑market firms (revenues $100 M‑$1 B) and found overall uncertainty stable, but a sharp split between goods and services sectors. Tariff policy shifts and supply‑chain exposure pushed high‑uncertainty among goods producers up 27% year‑over‑year,...
In this episode, YJ Lee, founder of the Arcane Green Metal Fund, explains why the July 2024 lithium price dip was a prime buying window and projects a conservative 4.6 Mt lithium demand by 2030, driven by a 33% annual growth...
“Ukraine could export several billion dollars of military goods and services this year after authorising its first wartime foreign sales and is considering introducing a tax on those exports, a senior Ukrainian defence official said. Earlier this month, the state commission...
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
The Worldpanel by Numerator report projects Philippine FMCG spending to grow only 3‑4% in 2026, a sharp deceleration from last year’s 5.2% rise. The slowdown reflects weaker GDP growth, now seen at 5.3% versus an earlier 6% estimate, and higher...
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
The episode examines how Gulf states are moving beyond a hedging strategy toward Iran, recognizing that Iran’s internal turmoil now directly threatens their security and economic interests. It argues that reliance on crisis avoidance and U.S. guarantees is insufficient, and...
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
India and the United States are moving toward an interim trade agreement that is expected to be signed in April, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced. Negotiators will convene in Washington from Feb 23 to finalize the legal text, converting a...
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Thanks to Trump's blockade, Cuba's tourism industry has entirely collapsed. Major hotels and airlines have completely shut down. Stay tuned. https://t.co/BF6qoIAgu0
Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...
Rising US‑Iran tensions are boosting the dollar as oil prices climb, reviving its safe‑haven appeal. The market now assigns a 60% probability to a US strike on Iran, which could lift Brent to $75‑76 and push EUR/USD down toward 1.16....
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Investors face heightened global volatility in 2026 as leading central banks diverge—while the Fed and BoE continue rate cuts, the ECB sits near neutral and the BoJ tightens. Geopolitical flashpoints around the United States add safe‑haven demand, further weakening the...
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of US data and possible SCOTUS decision on POTUS use of emergency powers to levy broad tariffs. Mkt tensions over possible US-Iran conflict seems to have eased for the moment but have not...
UK retail sales begin the year with the fastest growth in 20 months https://t.co/GPGNaZk4Oa via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/kAm5UcAWvQ
Danang’s 2045 master plan re‑imagines the city as a megacity and international financial centre, integrating coastal, mountainous and border zones. The Danang International Financial Centre (IFC) began operations in early 2026, focusing on digital finance, asset tokenisation and green‑finance solutions....
The U.S. dollar stayed firm in quiet Asian markets while heightened Iran‑U.S. tensions pushed WTI crude above $67, its highest level since last August. Gold and silver edged higher but lacked sustained buying, reflecting selective hedging. Meanwhile, the UK reported...
The Trump administration unveiled its Maritime Action Plan, introducing a universal port fee on all foreign‑built vessels that would be calculated on import cargo weight rather than net tonnage. Revenue projections range from $66 billion to $1.5 trillion over ten years, while...
