Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
First Quantum Minerals announced that its Taca Taca copper‑gold project in northwest Argentina now carries an after‑tax net present value of $5.92 billion and a 19.3% internal rate of return, more than double the 2021 estimate. Updated reserves rose 13%, adding 8.43 million tonnes of copper and 5.53 million ounces of gold, supporting a 35‑year mine life. The initial 40 Mtpa open‑pit operation is projected to cost $4.2 billion, with cash costs of $0.97 per pound copper for the first decade. Shares jumped 3% on the news, underscoring investor confidence.
Ocean carrier schedule reliability plunged in January 2026 as congestion at Asian hubs and severe North Atlantic weather disrupted liner networks. Rate‑benchmarking platform Xeneta reports a sharp decline in on‑time arrivals across most carriers, with only non‑alliance services showing modest...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose broad tariffs, overturning Trump’s IEEPA tariff regime. The decision opens a path for importers to seek refunds, but claims must...
The Supreme Court, in a 6‑3 ruling, invalidated the sweeping tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, finding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to levy tariffs. The justices applied the major...
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling limiting the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, providing clearer legal boundaries for trade measures. The National Retail Federation welcomed the decision, saying it delivers much‑needed...
President Donald Trump announced a 10% global tariff lasting 150 days, invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act after the Supreme Court struck down his broader IEEPA‑based duties. The new measure can be applied to any country facing “large and...
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president lacks authority to impose broad tariffs without congressional approval, striking down the 10% baseline tariffs Trump enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision leaves intact steel and aluminum...
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, invalidating most of the administration’s reciprocal tariffs. The decision overturns the 34% tariff on China and the 10% baseline...
The Indian government has set an ₹80,000‑crore dis‑investment target for the next fiscal, sparking a rally in public‑sector undertaking (PSU) stocks and lifting equity markets. The plan combines strategic stake sales and asset monetisation to generate fiscal inflows while unlocking...
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Chief Procurement Officers (CPOs) are shifting from headline tariff figures to category‑level exposure mapping, allowing precise risk assessment and targeted mitigation. By integrating total cost of ownership into tariff response, they avoid costly over‑reactions and focus on long‑term spend efficiency....
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
US Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Tariffs + US Military preparing for an operation in Iran. Well , that's going to be a crazy end to the week. Embrace yourself for volatility.
Pakistan announced a dedicated special security unit in January 2026 to protect Chinese citizens and projects, a move prompted by a spike in militant attacks on Chinese interests. The unit signals Islamabad’s desperation to retain China’s $62 billion investment amid deteriorating...
Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on CBS News on February 19 to discuss Washington’s options regarding a potential strike on Iran. He warned that a rushed military action could destabilize the region and emphasized the need for a...
This is what happens when export $ recycling slows in a world that is deglobalizing. I.E. When the movement from Capital to Labor shifts, the flow of equity flow moves from digital to real things, from software to hardware, trade...
Oil supertanker charter rates have surged, with VLCC earnings on the Middle East‑to‑China lane reaching $151,208 per day, the highest since 2020. The spike is driven by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential US‑Iran conflict and a tightening supply of available...
The Federal Reserve’s January FOMC minutes confirm that inflation remains entrenched in the United States, contrary to earlier optimism. Core consumer‑price index rose 0.3% month‑over‑month, keeping annual inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. The minutes show policymakers acknowledging persistent price...
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
The U.S. Census Bureau announced an updated release calendar to address a recent lapse in federal funding, postponing the next Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) revisions and benchmark releases. The delay affects historical corrections, new seasonal factors, and data from the...
North Korea is stratifying its diplomatic outreach in Southeast Asia, placing Vietnam and Laos at the top tier because of entrenched party‑to‑party links, while Indonesia sits in a middle tier with limited ideological affinity. Malaysia’s relations were severed in 2021...
U.S. President Donald Trump is positioning a three‑party deal with Turkey and Ukraine at the June NATO summit to allow large‑scale U.S. LNG shipments through the Bosporus. Current Turkish regulations bar vessels over 200 m, preventing most U.S. LNG carriers from...
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor‑Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão signed the Parseria Foun ba Era Foun declaration, establishing a new partnership built on three pillars – peace and regional integration, prosperity and resilience, and people‑to‑people links. The accord expands cooperation in security,...
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Europe’s productivity lags far behind the United States, with EU real‑GDP growth averaging 1.3% since 2000 versus 2.4% in the US. The gap is driven by weak diffusion of IT and AI advances, which account for 25% of US growth...
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader...
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on Chinese and Russian aid to Iran: “There are all kinds of rumors and reports ... that Iran is receiving important military aid from China and from Russia as it prepares for the conflict with the US.”...
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
Retail sales in Canada slipped 0.4% to $70 billion in December, marking the first monthly decline of the year. The drop was driven by a 1.6% fall in motor vehicle and parts dealers, while gasoline stations and fuel vendors posted a...
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
Venezuela sits on vast offshore natural gas reserves that could be developed quickly. But NOTHING will happen as long as US sanctions are imposed on Venezuela. It's time to LIFT SANCTIONS. https://t.co/RrlrOxXGDy
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
We're fucked. Buy gold. Buy bitcoin. Buy land. Buy guns and ammo. The dollar is toast.
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
With the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs, how will supply chains and logistics reset?
1/ We have the #tariffs opinion from #SCOTUS. Bottom line: a 6-3 loss for the administration. LINK to opinion: https://t.co/ITOB5aymTt
Very interesting that Thomas, Alito, and Kav would sign up for carbon border adjustments under the President's emergency authority. Key question is whether the liberal wing can find space between tariffs and carbon border adjustments. https://t.co/TyTuDsECLC
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
