Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Hold the Champagne: Oil Recovery Faces Weeks of Delay as Supply Chain Shocks Deepen
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced oil tankers onto longer, less efficient routes, leaving only seven empty vessels to transit the strait and no fully laden ships delivering product. Around 330 compliant tankers and 102 vessels carrying roughly 2,400 seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf, while 252 tankers are en route to the United States for loading. The resulting transit delays are stretching oil rotations by weeks, deepening a jet‑fuel shortage in Europe and prompting airline cancellations and higher surcharges. Full recovery of oil flows will likely take weeks to months once safe passage is confirmed.
The “Strait of Iran” Illusion: How a 7-Week War Broke the American Empire
In this episode of Democracy‑ish, hosts Danielle Moody and Wajah Tali dissect the recent seven‑week conflict sparked by the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran and Lebanon, which they label the "Strait of Iran" illusion. They argue the war caused...
European Steel Mills Signal €50-70/T Long Product Hikes
European steel producers in Italy and Germany announced €50‑70 per tonne ($59‑$82.5) price hikes for long products, to be offered next week. The increases reflect rising energy costs, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and tighter EU safeguards that bolster domestic...
Fed's Waller: Job Market Break Even Rate Now Likely Around Zero
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the job‑market break‑even rate – the unemployment level that would allow the Fed to keep policy unchanged – is now effectively zero. He warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push inflation higher...
Fifteen South American People Deported From the US Arrive in DR Congo
The United States has begun sending deported migrants to the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the first group of fifteen Latin American nationals arriving in Kinshasa overnight. The cohort includes seven women and is part of a broader bilateral arrangement...
Premier Alliance Taps UAE’s Khor Fakkan for War-Diverted Cargoes
The Premier Alliance has designated the UAE port of Khor Fakkan as an interim transshipment hub for its Middle East‑Asia‑US West Coast GS2 service. The move follows a March suspension of calls at Arabian Gulf ports after missile and drone attacks...
Significant Differences Remain Between Iran-US, Including on Nuclear Issues, Senior Iranian Official Says
Iran and the United States still face major gaps, especially over nuclear details, according to a senior Iranian official. The official warned that the cease‑fire in the Gulf war remains conditional on U.S. compliance with its terms, including keeping the...
De-Risking the Rare Earths Supply Chain With Sprott's REXC
The Sprott Rare Earths Ex‑China ETF (REXC) launched on April 15, offering investors a focused way to capture rare‑earth demand while sidestepping Chinese exposure. The fund tracks the Nasdaq Sprott Rare Earths Ex‑China Index and holds 34 companies across Australia, Canada...
Economic Commentary Q2 2026: Markets Reawaken to Risk
Ron Albahary, CIO of LNW Advisors, released the firm’s Q2 2026 Economic Commentary, noting that markets are reawakening to risk after a period of caution. The report cites renewed inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical shocks, and rapid AI‑driven disruption as key...
Gold Soars As Iran Reopens The Strait Of Hormuz For All Ships
Gold prices jumped on Friday as Iran announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through April 22, easing a key oil‑shipping chokepoint. The front‑month COMEX gold contract rose 1.61% to $4,885.50 per ounce, while silver gained 4.4% to $82.47...
Daily Energy Report
Oil prices plunged more than 10% on April 17, 2026 after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was fully open for commercial shipping, sending Brent crude down $13 per barrel. The announcement, reinforced by President Trump’s remarks, sparked a rally...
1.5% M/M Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Have to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
The analysis estimates that a 1.5% month‑over‑month annualized CPI increase from May through December 2026 would bring the headline consumer price index back to its pre‑war stochastic trend. This target assumes oil prices remain elevated until the Strait of Hormuz...
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Stock Market Today: Indexes Soar, Oil Dives After Iran's Foreign Minister Says Strait of Hormuz 'Completely Open' During Ceasefire; Dow...
Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" during a 10‑day Israel‑Lebanon cease‑fire, sending West Texas Intermediate down 11% to about $84 a barrel and Brent to $89. The plunge hammered the S&P 500 energy sector, which fell...
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
Trump Claims Iran to Suspend Nuclear Programme, with Deal to End War ‘Mostly Complete’
President Donald Trump announced that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and that a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war is "mostly complete." Simultaneously, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial traffic during the 10‑day...
Liquidity Drain Underway, Will It Even Matter?
Liquidity is draining as the Treasury General Account climbs and Federal Reserve reserve balances slip toward $2.8‑$2.9 trillion. Historically, the second half of April sees equity weakness, yet the S&P 500 has risen about 2.5% since April 14, 2026, defying the pattern. Overnight...
Lebanon President Says Future Deal Will Not Cede Territory
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that any future agreement with Israel will not involve ceding territory or compromising Lebanon's national rights. The remarks came in his first televised address since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted fighting between Israel and Hezbollah...
Senior Iranian Official: Significant Differences Remain, Serious Talks Required
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that substantial gaps remain in the nuclear talks with the United States, especially on nuclear issues, and that serious negotiations are still required. He indicated a preliminary agreement could be struck within days, potentially...
Lebanon: Part of Mideast Settlement?
President Donald Trump used a Truth Social post to announce a U.S.-brokered ceasefire after a phone call with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. The declaration follows a Washington meeting between Israeli Ambassador Michael Lieter and Lebanese counterpart Nada Hamadeh, attended by...
Next Week’s Menu: April 18-24, 2026
The week of April 18‑24, 2026 is packed with macro‑economic events, including monetary‑policy reviews in China, Indonesia, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan and the Philippines, and a Senate Banking Committee hearing for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination. Bulgaria’s National Assembly election and the conclusion...
South Korea’s Renewed Strategic Pivot to India
South Korea is reviving its strategic outreach to India as President Lee Jae‑myung prepares for a three‑day state visit in April 2026. The move builds on Seoul’s New Southern Policy and comes as India climbs to the world’s fifth‑largest economy,...
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Carney Seeks C$1 Trillion, Invites Top Investors to Toronto
Carney has been zig-zagging the globe trying to lure investors into Canada. It looks like a big test of whether his efforts will bear fruit is coming: he's invited the world's biggest investors to Toronto in September. He's looking for...
Understanding Global Recessions: Definitions, History, and Examples
A global recession is a synchronized downturn across multiple economies, defined by the IMF through declines in worldwide GDP, trade, and employment. The fund has identified four such episodes since World War II—1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009—and added the 2020 Great...
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6.1% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
#NEW Fannie Mae's revised forecast expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average... 6.2% in Q3 2026 6.1% in Q4 2026 6.1% in Q1 2027 6.1% in Q2 2027 6.1% in Q3 2027 6.1% in Q4 2027 https://t.co/AhH8SZ64tC
Questions Surround Hormuz Reopening After Lebanon Ceasefire
A ten‑day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect Thursday night, and within days Iran announced it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran linked the decision to the ceasefire, portraying the lull as a sign of broader regional stability....
Iran's Diversified Finances Undermine Obama‑Era Deal Blueprint
The same model Obama had for Iran in 2011-12. Limited oil sales, stop enrichment and release some funds. But today, Iran is much more diversified financially
Iran War’s End Won’t End Supply Chain Risks
Is the Iran War Almost Over? Why That Doesn't End the Supply Risks. #oatt #oott https://t.co/SUroio6mpX
India Can Handle the Energy Shock if Iran Ceasefire Holds, Top Government Adviser Says
India’s chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said the country can absorb the current energy‑price shock from the Iran war if the cease‑fire holds and extends. He expects oil supply and prices to normalise by the end of Q3 2026, allowing India...
IRGC Says only Khamenei Can Order Hormuz Reopening
IRGC: Only Iran's leader Khamenei can order a Hormuz reopening, "not some idiot" on Twitter
European Actors, Even French Socialists, Drove Market Liberalization
Abdelal shows how capital market liberalization was pushed by groups of European actors including leading French socialists. Today's Chrtbook Top Links in the comment below https://t.co/BHXhe2jvTI
US Stocks Make Fresh Record Highs. A Look at the Stocks Paying Big Peace Dividends
The S&P 500 surged to a fresh all‑time high of 7,143, driven by a wave of peace‑related optimism after President Trump said the Iran deal faced no sticking points. The rally validated a set of “TACO” trades the author flagged...
Iran Mandates Specific Shipping Lane Despite Trump’s Openness Claim
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open. But do note Tehran says shipping traffic needs to follow the "coordinated route as already announced” by Iran. What's that route? My @Opinion video explainer, published originally last week, shows it. https://t.co/Pg7UBNarHY
Iran Reopens Hormuz, U.S. Blockade Persists Amid Mine Claims
Iran Reopens Strait Of Hormuz, U.S. Blockade Continues These moves come as Trump claims the U.S. is helping Iran remove mines from the Strait. Updating live: https://t.co/t5TdqPciTt
US Commerce Secretary Lashes Out at Canada Ahead of Trade Talks: ‘They Suck … Is This Nuts?’
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick lashed out at Canada, calling it "suck" and accusing it of leeching off the $30 trillion U.S. economy as the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) heads into a June 1 review. He also dismissed the prospect of Chinese automakers...
Apollo CEO Sees Iran Conflict Boosting Gulf Business Confidence
What Apollo CEO Marc Rowan told me about how he’s thinking about the war in Iran: “I view what’s happening as stabilizing. I view this as ultimately good for business confidence, investment, particularly in the Gulf where I’m very bullish...
Crude Oil Falls 10% as Strait of Hormuz Opens
Oil prices plunged over 10% on April 17 as Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, allowing tankers to resume flow from the Persian Gulf. Brent crude fell 10.5% to $89 per barrel and U.S. crude dropped 10.8%...
US Debt Limits Expose Global Economic Fragility
On @cgtnamerica, I explain the fragility facing the global economy: "Large economies like the US have been running large deficits and accumulating debt. There's very little headroom. They've put themselves in a corner. And the markets aren’t pricing in the real...
US Oil Blockade Opens Strait, Offers Ukraine Lessons
Big thanks to @biannagolodryga for having me on @CNN to talk about the US blockade of Iranian oil and its role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of lessons to learn here, especially on how the West confronts...
The World Needs an Oil Buyers’ Club
A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz is cutting off a quarter of the world’s traded crude oil. The loss of Iranian shipments, combined with reduced output from Gulf producers, is deepening an already severe...
India, Austria Launch Fast-Track Investment Mechanism; Flag India-EU FTA as Key Trade Driver
India and Austria have operationalised a bilateral fast‑track mechanism (FTM) to accelerate investment approvals and resolve business disputes promptly. The launch, announced during Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker’s first official visit in over 40 years, underscores the strategic importance of the...
Oil Tumbles 10% and Stock Markets Rally as Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz ‘Completely Open’ – as It Happened
Oil prices plunged about 10% as Brent slipped below $90 a barrel after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open for navigation. The easing of a major supply‑chain bottleneck sparked a rally across global equity markets, lifting risk‑on assets....
Fidelity Flags Critical Flaws in the Bull Market
Fidelity’s 2026 stock market outlook warns that the bull market’s headline gains conceal significant weaknesses. While the cap‑weighted S&P 500 has risen about 91% since October 2022, an equal‑weight view shows only a 52% gain, highlighting the outsized role of the Magnificent 7....
Euro Slides as Hike Forecasts Drop to 1.6%
FWIW, intra-day euro off its highs. Not major moves, but it appears there was an overshooting on the Iran news. Also now only 1.6 hikes expected by year-end in the eurozone, down from 2.6 on Monday src: BBG https://t.co/BogH7m2BKY
Debt Woes Could Spark Bond Market Revolt, Says Wilson
"If we don't find a way to grow out of the debt problem, the bond market will revolt... but I just don't see that right now." 🎙️ Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson https://t.co/6SRBAtt9a2
Cuban President Díaz‑Canel Warns of US Aggression, Says Island Ready to Defend Itself
Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel told a rally commemorating the 65th anniversary of the Revolution’s socialist declaration that Cuba does not seek US military aggression but is prepared to fight. The remarks come as Washington tightens an energy blockade and threatens...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Holds USD/Manat at 1.7 Amid Regional FX Turbulence
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced on April 17 that the official U.S. dollar to manat rate remains fixed at 1.7 manat. The decision, made alongside unchanged euro, lira and ruble rates, provides a rare data point of stability in...
Debt: Tool or Trap?
Debt can be a growth engine, but in the Philippines it is increasingly a survival lifeline. A Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas survey shows one‑third of Filipinos borrow to cover basic needs, with food accounting for roughly a third of loan...
Australia Secures 100 Million‑Litre Diesel Boost Amid Fuel Crisis
Australia has secured an emergency shipment of 100 million litres of diesel from Brunei and South Korea following high‑level negotiations, a move aimed at easing a severe fuel shortage caused by Middle‑East conflict and a refinery fire. The boost comes as...