Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling on February 20, 2026, striking down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, holds that the Constitution reserves taxing power for Congress, leaving only Section 232 steel and aluminum duties intact. Economists project that eliminating the tariffs could reduce average household costs by $600‑$800, while opening the door for billions in refunds to importers. The ruling has prompted Trump to threaten a new 10 % tariff using other legal mechanisms, underscoring ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
Today, the US announced a plan to sell Venezuelan oil to India. Note who’s selling Venezuela’s oil to India. It’s Uncle Sam. AMAZING. https://t.co/SLitquccox
JPMORGAN: “.. many trade deals negotiated to date have relied on IEEPA tariffs and have not yet been formalized as trade agreements. With the legal basis for these tariffs now invalidated, the fate of these deals is in question. These...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the President authority to impose tariffs, invalidating both the targeted fentanyl duties and broader reciprocal tariffs. The decision could unlock up to $175 billion in...
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund. @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/7pUUCZaEr2
SCOTUS just ruled Trump can’t use emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. Why? The Constitution gives tariff power to Congress, and IEEPA never authorized a president to tax imports. The Court rejected the power grab and the economic overreach. It’s...
The U.S. Supreme Court declared President Trump’s IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal, opening the door to massive refund claims. Estimates suggest importers could seek as much as $175 billion in reimbursements, though the Court did not specify how refunds will be administered. Treasury,...
President Donald Trump signaled a possible 10% tariff on U.S. aluminum scrap imports after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier country‑specific duties. He indicated the executive order would invoke Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which permits duties...
The European Central Bank has earmarked €1.3 billion for the digital euro’s development and expects annual operating costs of €320 million from 2029. A pilot phase will begin with a call for expressions of interest in March 2026, running six weeks, followed by...
Hong Kong‑based CK Hutchison has formally asked Panama to reopen talks on the concession to operate the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals that flank the Panama Canal. The request follows a Panama Supreme Court ruling that declared the law granting the...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose the sweeping tariffs enacted under the Trump administration, effectively nullifying roughly $175 billion in duties. Ports and logistics firms are...
DoubleLine strategists Ryan Kimmel and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sector rotation this week, with communications services, financials and industrials gaining while traditional “old economy” sectors such as utilities and real estate fell. In fixed income, investment‑grade yields edged higher, but...
A new IDB Invest technical note analyzes 21,696 MSMEs across 30 Latin American and Caribbean economies, linking credit access to employment growth. The study finds that an extra US$1 million in financing generates roughly four permanent jobs per year. Effects vary:...
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
My take on the US dollar: "The DOLLAR IS KING, and it's going to REMAIN KING. It's hard to knock a king off his throne." https://t.co/txOJ9KZ8Qw
Wall Street is bracing for President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 10% global tariff after the Supreme Court ruled his earlier IEEPA tariffs unlawful. The decision could spark lengthy refund litigation for importers and may give the Federal Reserve...
Since our bullish call on Korea last August… EWY +99.27% SPY +7.78% Money counting time. https://t.co/EKTw9HANNh
Trump's tariffs COST US BUSINESSES BILLIONS. Fortunately, today, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. But that won’t be the last act in the TARIFF TRAGEDY. https://t.co/BaPcQ0duJJ
The African Union’s February summit highlighted a packed 2026 election calendar, with more than a dozen nations heading to the polls, from Uganda and Benin to Ethiopia and South Sudan. Parallel security concerns dominate the agenda, as the DRC’s fragile...
In my weekly markets video for clients, I highlighted how investors have gone from “7 to Staples”. Usually, growing macro risks lead to Staples leadership. This time macro isn’t the issue, but it could be due to Mag 7’s idiosyncratic...
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
This episode curates a set of recent reports on three major themes: U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court blocked President Trump's use of the IEEPA, escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iran’s domestic challenges, and broader geoeconomic issues such as...
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, sending the S&P 500 up 0.69% to 6,909 and the Dow up 230 points. The decision lifted a macro headwind for import‑dependent consumer‑discretionary firms, with Nike, Yeti and SharkNinja posting gains....
The Bank of Montreal has followed my lead. It just UPGRADED its gold price forecast to $6,500/oz by year's end. I predict the GOLD BULL will PEAK at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/69wgiprOrt
Canadian officials had told me they were concerned a SCOTUS loss might enable Trump to impose harsher tariffs on Canada, which currently has the lowest effective tariff rate together w Mexico. Whether they told the Trump Admin this, as the president...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump cannot invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on agricultural inputs. The decision overturns several IEEPA tariffs on fertilizer and farm equipment, a relief for soybean growers. Despite the...
$2 trillion in forced liquidation blamed on chinese traders, margin hikes & Warsh pick, silver is 33 cents away from completing its 10th consecutive monthly candle (if it were monthend) #forex #XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/SOjpd04sAO
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 decision striking down President Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), ruling the move exceeded presidential authority. The majority held that IEEPA does not grant the power to...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are unlawful, restoring congressional authority over trade barriers. The decision paves the way for thousands of lawsuits seeking refunds, with industry estimates...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, effectively nullifying most of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime. The decision restores congressional primacy over tariff authority and declares the core...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s proposed Section 122 global tariff, removing a major trade escalation risk. Meanwhile, the advance estimate for Q4 GDP posted a 1.4% annual gain, well below the 3.0% consensus, while PCE inflation edged higher...
Tunisia’s post‑2011 democratic breakthrough delivered expanded civil liberties but failed to translate into lasting economic gains. A 2021 presidential power grab dismantled key checks, curbing judicial independence and reversing many political freedoms. Meanwhile, the economy remains hampered by high inflation,...
German carrier Hapag-Lloyd plans to leverage its $4.2 billion acquisition of Zim Integrated Shipping Services to expand its intra‑Asia footprint through Zim’s Hong Kong‑based affiliate Gold Star Line. Gold Star operates 20 liner services with a fleet of 40 vessels totaling roughly 100,000 TEU,...
The Danish Maritime Authority seized the container vessel Nora, a ship blacklisted by the United States for violating Iran sanctions. Authorities say the vessel was sailing under an unauthorized Comoros flag and abruptly raised the Iranian flag when questioned, indicating...
The episode reviews the overnight futures market, noting mixed grain movements and modest profit taking in soybeans. A pivotal moment came when the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that President Trump’s tariffs were invalid because only Congress...
Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) told Mining Indaba delegates it has delivered roughly US$8 billion to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s public treasury since 2006 and supports about 20,000 jobs. The mine, a Copper Mark‑certified operation, allocates 0.3% of revenue to community projects...
Iran’s leadership has repeatedly misread regional dynamics, turning potential strategic gains into costly setbacks. After hesitating to mobilize Hezbollah during the October 7 Hamas offensive, Tehran launched a large‑scale missile and drone barrage against Israel in April 2024, prompting a robust Israeli‑U.S....
President Donald Trump announced an executive order imposing a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, following a Supreme Court decision that invalidated his earlier emergency‑law tariff plan. The new tariffs include exemptions for critical minerals, metals...
Capital goes where it’s welcome. Countries that embrace crypto will likely see the most economic growth in the next decade.
Deposits are US banks’ primary funding source; they are typically cheap, abundant, and slow to reprice. Many households keep substantial balances in bank accounts that pay little or no interest. https://t.co/jTcFqJyFST
The episode examines the latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, noting modest progress on nuclear issues but stark disagreement over missiles and regional proxies, while the U.S. escalates its Middle East military presence with an additional aircraft carrier....
All OECD countries other than Israel now have a total fertility rate below 2 https://t.co/jvolvyD3YP
The European Commission has launched another attempt to reform capital markets, rebranded as the ‘Savings and Investment Union’. https://t.co/UQ2DvCgG3f
The Supreme Court struck down the broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but left Section 232 duties untouched. Because most pharma tariffs were issued under Section 232, the ruling does not eliminate the targeted tariffs on drug imports....
2025 saw a modest recovery of venture capital investment in Europe after three years of decline, with a total of €66.2 billion deployed. Even so, this was only 22% of the amount invested in the US, despite the two economies...
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects global real GDP growth to slow in 2026 after a surprisingly resilient 2025. The 2025 boost stemmed from a pre‑tariff trade surge and modest monetary easing, but those advantages are fading. New trade...
My take on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: “The Iranians recently shot a warning shot across the bow. They indicated that they can shut the straits down and cut the world off from 20% of its supply.” https://t.co/sbb1tuQO4T
John E. Drew, founder of Drew Companies, is redefining real estate as a trade engine by developing logistics‑focused campuses that link ports, rail, and highways. His strategy emphasizes modular, technology‑enabled facilities that accelerate cargo movement and reduce supply‑chain friction. Drew’s...
