Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
"Energy Dominance" In Action
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global oil supplies, prompting buyers to turn to alternative sources. U.S. crude exports jumped to 5.2 million bpd, the highest level in seven months, while net imports fell to a record‑low 66,000 bpd, nearly making the United States a net exporter for the first time since World War II. Export capacity is estimated at about 6 million bpd, but pipeline and terminal constraints are already limiting further growth. The surge is also inflating tanker freight rates as Asian charterers scramble for U.S. Gulf cargoes.
Marcos Suspends LPG, Kerosene Excise Taxes for 3 Months
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 114, suspending excise taxes on LPG and kerosene for three months, effective immediately. The suspension applies except when LPG is used for petrochemicals or motive power and when kerosene serves aviation fuel....
Invest Now: Capture Compute, Data, Energy Bottlenecks with DCA
Thoughts? I break down why now is the time to start investing and what most people are missing. We discuss how liquidity shifts, potential Fed rate changes, and trillions of dollars moving into the system could impact your portfolio. I...
Fiscal Institutions Matter Big Time for Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Economies
IMF research finds low‑income countries capture less than 1 % of global FDI, with inflows skewed toward low‑R&D sectors. Empirical analysis shows that robust fiscal institutions and disciplined public finances are the strongest predictors of both the quantity and the R&D...
Four Scenarios for Geopolitics After the Iran War
Iran announced it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz for vessels on pre‑approved routes, even as President Donald Trump pledged to keep a U.S. blockade on Iranian ships. The cease‑fire remains fragile, and both sides are still negotiating a settlement....
S&P Sets New Records as Oil, Yields Stay Elevated
With an impressive week nowunder its belt, the S&P has done more than just reclaim its pre-war levels. It has registered multiple record highs. Interestingly, both oil prices and government bond yields remain elevated above their own pre-war levels. #economy #markets
Thailand Banks on EU Trade Deal
Thailand is accelerating negotiations on an EU‑Thailand free‑trade agreement as the EU finalised a landmark FTA with India. Eight rounds of talks have produced agreements on trade remedies, public‑health exceptions and market‑access rules, bringing the total to 11 of 24...
In Wake of Iran War, Chinese Manufacturers Recalibrate Overseas Expansion Plans
Chinese manufacturers are reassessing overseas expansion after the Iran war heightened geopolitical risk and shipping costs. Domestic profit margins have narrowed while capacity utilization sits near 85%, prompting firms to seek higher‑margin markets abroad. Companies are scaling back projects in...
Banque De France Governor François Villeroy De Galhau: ‘Europe and America Will Either Win Together or Fall Together’
François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France, warned that Europe and the United States must cooperate or risk mutual decline. He highlighted that global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing IMF forecasts, while the euro area posted...
Fed Governor Warns Energy Shock Delays Rate Cuts
'One Transitory Shock After Another' Fed governor Chris Waller lays out two scenarios: The strait reopens "leaving me cautious about rate cuts now and more inclined toward cuts to support the labor market later this year." Or it doesn't and the Fed...
Fast-Tracking US Critical Minerals Could Backfire without Safeguards, Oxfam Warns
The United States is accelerating permits and financing for critical‑mineral mines under a 2025 executive order aimed at reducing foreign dependence. Oxfam America cautions that rushing projects without strong environmental and community safeguards could create costly legal battles and delays....
The Bigger Energy Lesson Behind Iran’s Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, prompting a sharp dip in oil prices and a modest rally in equity markets. The reopening, however, does not erase the underlying geopolitical risk that the strait can be...
Polymarket Odds of Hormuz Strait Traffic Normalizing by End of May Spike to 73%
Polymarket’s prediction market showed odds climbing to 73% that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of May, after a brief peak of 82% following Iran’s announcement of a temporary reopening. The cease‑fire deal prompted a...
Hedge Funds’ Record Treasury Bets Risk Sending ‘Shockwaves’ Through the Global Bond Market, Apollo Says
Hedge funds now own roughly 8% of the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the highest share on record, according to Apollo Global Management. Their positions are heavily leveraged, backed by about $6 trillion in repo and prime‑brokerage funding. Apollo’s chief economist warns...
Strait Flush
The post outlines a tentative Iran‑U.S. deal that keeps the Strait of Hormuz open, commits Tehran to never close it again, and sets up joint collection of enriched uranium. It also notes a 10‑day extension of a controversial U.S. surveillance...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much Ado About Oil
In this J.P. Morgan Weekender episode, Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dissect the implications of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader U.S.-Iran agreement on oil markets. They outline a baseline scenario where a modest, sustained...
Dow Jones Futures, Oil Prices In Focus As Iran, Hormuz News Turns
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now under strict military control, prompting U.S. plans to board Iran‑linked tankers and sending crude oil futures down 13.2% to about $83.85 a barrel. Dow futures opened modestly lower, while U.S. equities...
Fogs Lift a Bit, Animal Spirits a Lot (E258)
Risk assets surged the week ending April 17, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all‑time highs. Fixed‑income markets rallied across the curve, with emerging‑market bonds leading the gains, while the belly of the yield curve saw the most pronounced rise....
Scoop: Inside the Historic U.S.-Cuba Negotiations in Havana
U.S. State Department officials traveled to Havana for the first U.S. government flight since President Obama’s 2016 visit, meeting with Cuban officials including Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of Raul Castro. The delegation offered to restore internet access via...
Strait of Hormuz Deal Sees Munis Firmer, USTs Rally
Municipal bonds rose on Friday as U.S. Treasuries rallied following the announcement that commercial vehicles can now transit the Strait of Hormuz. Bank of America analysts said the cease‑fire optimism creates a liquidity‑driven, risk‑on environment that is neutral for duration...
Aluminium in Crisis: War, Tariffs and a Market Running on Empty – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 16, 2026)
The ongoing Iran war has sparked a severe aluminium shortage, amplified by a missile strike that knocked out Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatar Aluminium have already trimmed output due to power constraints, and the conflict has...
U.S. Index Futures Edge Higher on Hopes of U.S.-Iran Deal as Netflix Slides 9%
June S&P 500 E‑Mini futures rose 0.23% and Nasdaq 100 E‑Mini futures 0.20% as traders priced in a possible U.S.–Iran peace deal. At the same time, Netflix shares dropped more than 9% after the streaming giant issued below‑consensus Q2 guidance...
Ashmore Sees $900 Million Outflows as Middle‑East Tensions Hit Emerging‑Market Assets
Ashmore Group disclosed $900 million of net client withdrawals in the March quarter, driving assets under management down 3% to $50.7 billion. The outflows stem from heightened volatility in the Middle‑East, which is prompting investors to curb new allocations to emerging‑market strategies.
Colombia Leads Emerging‑Market ‘Coalition of the Willing’ to Break Fossil‑Fuel Deadlock
Colombia, together with the Netherlands, hosted a two‑day conference in Santa Marta that gathered 54 countries – many from the Global South – to launch a “coalition of the willing” focused on phasing out fossil fuels. The summit seeks to...
Commerzbank Says ECB Rate‑Hike Expectations Over‑Priced, Forecasts Yield Curve Reset
Commerzbank analysts warned that the market is over‑pricing European Central Bank rate hikes for 2026, citing modest forward pricing and weaker energy price assumptions. They see room for the curve to bull‑steepen, which could lower discount rates for Euro‑zone stocks...
SCHO: Still A Bit Wary Of Duration
The Schwab Short‑Term US Treasury ETF (SCHO) carries a 1.9‑year duration, making it more sensitive to 2‑year Treasury yields than its name suggests. A recent cease‑fire in the Middle East has eased energy‑price pressures, lowering inflation risk and reviving expectations...
Dow Rises 868 Points Amid Gulf Ceasefire: Stock Market Today
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was fully open following a Lebanon‑Israel cease‑fire, sending West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude down 8.8% to $83 and $91 per barrel. The oil shock sparked a broad equity rally, with the Dow Jones...
InvestingLive Americas Market News Wrap: Iran Says Hormuz Is Open, Oil Plunges
Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open, prompting a $10‑per‑barrel drop in oil prices and a brief rally in equities, with the Nasdaq posting its 13th straight session of gains. The U.S. dollar initially sold off, the...
EUR/GBP Climbs to 0.8715 as Eurozone Inflation Outpaces BoE Caution
The euro edged up against the pound to 0.8715, up 0.06% on the day, as revised Eurozone inflation data bolstered expectations of a tighter ECB while the Bank of England remained guarded. Traders priced in a near‑term ECB hike but...
MarineTraffic Shows Hormuz Strait Vessel Activity After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal
MarineTraffic data released on April 17 shows a surge in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz following the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire agreement. The platform recorded an average of 45 vessels per day, a 30% increase from the previous week and...
IMF Lowers 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks
The International Monetary Fund reduced its projection for world GDP growth in 2026 to 3.1%, citing intensified geopolitical risks and a slowdown in trade. The downgrade signals tighter policy environments and higher inflation pressures for both advanced and emerging economies.
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is ‘Completely Open’
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" following the Israel‑Hezbollah cease‑fire, but Washington reiterated its naval blockade, citing unfinished transactions with Tehran. The U.S. Central Command reported 19 ships intercepted since the blockade began, underscoring lingering tension. Oil...
DBRS Rating Outlook Review Hits Italy as Trade Data Slips
Italy’s sovereign rating outlook is under review by DBRS as February trade data shows a slowdown and the Bank of Italy updates foreign holdings of BTPs. The convergence of weaker export numbers and potential rating pressure could push borrowing costs...
Europe's Chemical Industry Slumps Over 80%, Threatening Global Commodity Demand
Investment in Europe's chemicals sector collapsed by more than 80% in 2025, cutting new capacity from 1.9 million to 0.3 million tons and wiping out 37 million tons of existing capacity. The downturn, driven by high energy costs, stringent regulations and cheap Chinese...
Rising Storms Threaten Guam’s Strategic Military Role
I don’t usually try to connect climate change to specific local events. The relationship between climate and weather is complex, and it’s easy to overreach. But what’s happening in the Central Pacific right now is one of those cases where...
Iranian Rial Gains 11% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has appreciated by 11% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO REMAIN SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/WOududM6s7
Strait of Hormuz: Conflicting Claims Leave Everyone Guessing
The Strait of Hormuz situation is impossible to follow. Is it open? Is it closed? Iran threatens to close it. The US threatens to open it. Wait, now the US says it will close it. Now Iran says it's open....
Clarifying Conflicting Iran War Deal Reports with Hochstein
Today was a head-spinning day trying to understand conflicting reports about whether a deal had been struck to end the Iran war & reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I sat down this afternoon with @amoshochstein to talk through what we...
World Bank Reconsiders Free‑Market Absolutism in New Report
This week in "Nobody Knows Anything" "In a new report, the World Bank thinks better of its old free-market absolutism."
Ships Avoid Strait of Hormuz Amid Open‑Lane Uncertainty
Video shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz as confusion reins over whether sea lane is really open https://t.co/IOus6xH66m
Moody's Downgrades Belgium Over Unreduced Debt
Belgium gets downgraded by Moody’s in reproof at failure to cut debt https://t.co/8nsX75i8rj via @maxramsay https://t.co/pgwDrPsc9D
Iran Conflict Destabilizes Eastern Mediterranean Gas Sector
The Iran war has disrupted Eastern Mediterranean gas production, exports, and development, threatened regional energy infrastructure, and increased political and investment uncertainty. /1
Markets Rally on Ceasefire: Conviction or Buy‑the‑Dip?
My video for the week ahead: Markets Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Extends - Conviction or 'Buy the Dip'? https://t.co/w1MCHHfY2k https://t.co/9RJlM8Up9V
Trump’s Upcoming Tariffs Likely Just Another Sham
Our blog post on the "Section 301" investigations of "structural excess capacity": "Will Trump’s Next Tariffs Be a 'Sham, Too?" (spoiler: probably) https://t.co/ttbowSddG3 via @CatoInstitute
Weekly Macro Review & Preview for Premium Users
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview April 17, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/0ZHWM5Rrf2
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
Oil Dips, but Hormuz Ceasefire Keeps Markets Wary
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change. https://t.co/RUshSF8tJh
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Claims Hormuz Open
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today. Summary below, link in...
Sánchez Secures Brazil Deal, Expands Anti‑Trump Bloc
Spain signs a deals with Brazil as Sánchez builds anti-Trump coalition https://t.co/1V81yH8orq via @basteiro https://t.co/gbKNGSYkNQ
Kazaks Cautions: ECB May Not Raise Rates Soon
Kazaks warns against assuming the ECB’s next move will be a hike https://t.co/D88xszH8pz via @jrandow https://t.co/wDW8qFxiYT