Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Libya’s Ramadan celebrations unfolded amid soaring prices, fuel shortages and a sharply devalued dinar, highlighting deepening economic distress. The western central bank cut the currency by nearly 15% for the second time in a year, pushing cooking oil prices up 100% and meat costs up 50%. Supermarkets ration goods, ATMs run dry and black‑market gasoline spikes to 75 dinars per cylinder. United Nations officials warned that rising poverty could exacerbate the fragile security environment.
January Natural Gas vs. Lower Energy, Rates Goals - The January natural gas future (Jan27) is typically the tip of the price curve and will be tops in relevance around the US midterms, with a potential downward bias. Preexisting trends...
Energy dominance has been Trump’s most consequential failure @Anon1Oil No Defense Production Act. No serious incentives. No strategy. “Drill, baby, drill” turned into “die, baby, die” in the oil patch. And he’s wasted oil as leverage against China. As for telling me...
The Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that most Trump‑era tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are invalid, wiping out 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 20% hike on China. Sector‑specific duties on steel, aluminum and...
Macro: AI demand drives chip & platform leaders. Factors: HBM tightness (Micron), AIP adoption (Palantir). Risks: supply, concentration. Trade: buy MU on pullbacks for HBM exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Tehran will not submit to external pressure as nuclear talks with the United States continue. He framed the stance as a defense of national sovereignty despite what he described as problems created by world...
The week ahead centers on Nvidia’s February 25 earnings, where analysts expect revenue to surpass $65 billion and margins to climb above 74 percent, reinforcing its AI leadership. Australian CPI data will test the Reserve Bank’s willingness to raise rates again after...
Indigenous protesters occupied Cargill’s Santarem river‑port terminal in Brazil’s Pará state, completely halting operations. The terminal handled more than 5.5 million tonnes of soybeans and maize last year, accounting for over 70 % of the port’s grain volume. Demonstrators are opposing a...
Macro: SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs; admin will likely reissue ~80–90% → limited upside. Key: supplier pricing, de minimis. Risk: refunds slow. Trade: buy ONON for margin tailwind. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Japan’s real wages are set to move into positive territory in January 2026 after a year of decline, driven by a slowdown in CPI inflation to 2% YoY and a suite of government price‑relief measures. Tax cuts on gasoline, tuition‑free...
⚠️US Dollar weakness is historically BAD news for US stocks: AVERAGE ANNUALIZED RETURNS during the 5 major Dollar bear markets since 1967: S&P 500: +6.4% annualized Gold: +43.1% annualized EM stocks: +23.7% annualized👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
India and Brazil signed a mining and minerals cooperation pact in New Delhi, aiming to secure raw material supplies for India's expanding steel sector. The agreement targets raising bilateral trade from roughly $15 bn to over $20 bn within five years, with...
Apollo Global Management’s co‑founder Marc Rowan told investors in Tokyo that Japan is on the brink of a major economic turnaround. He highlighted that trillions of dollars have been parked in cash and that recent corporate‑governance reforms are unlocking carve‑out...
10% equity drop could erase $7T and shave ~0.9% off GDP. Tech/AI capex and hyperscaler overinvestment raise downside risk. Trade insight: trim cyclicals & hardware suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 ruling that invalidated President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime, finding the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs. Authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, the...
How many more years is this idiocy going to continue? Two collaborationist regimes in the center of Europe, during the largest continental war since WWII, are openly undermining the entire 500-million EU and the defense of the free world, all while...
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump's emergency authority to impose broad tariffs, prompting a modest sell‑off in the dollar despite its recent resilience. Dollar Index fell to just above 97.5, yet key technical levels held, while the euro recovered...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the 18% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Indian goods, prompting President Trump to replace them with a uniform 15% worldwide tariff under Section 122. This adjustment lowers the levy on Indian labour‑intensive exports—textiles, leather, shrimp—from the...
The $10 trillion U.S. debt wall has become a political weapon. But the accounting tells a different story than what you'll read in mainstream economics textbooks.
President Donald Trump has ordered a massive military buildup in the Middle East and is preparing for a possible multi‑week air strike against Iran, despite no clear strategic justification. Senior White House officials say the administration lacks unified support for...
Michael Hudson argues that the shift from industrial capitalism to finance‑driven rentier capitalism has turned economic growth into rent extraction, eroding productivity and widening inequality. He traces the historical battle against landlord rents in 19th‑century Britain to today’s debt‑financed housing,...
Recall @HalftimeReport Slink's confidentally quoting (on almost a daily basis) of the robust GDP Now projections by the Atlanta Fed (among the worst forecasters extant) to support her "the economy is great" and bullish market thesis? That is the...
The legal foundation of Washington’s geoeconomic power plays is looking shaky after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Source: Vizualytiks https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/US-Tariff-Revenue-7693
South Korea confronts simultaneous undersea threats from North Korea’s emerging SLBM‑capable submarines, a potential Taiwan crisis that could stretch U.S. and Japanese naval assets, and an increasingly active Russian presence via the Northern Sea Route. The author argues that choosing...
South Korea announced it will closely monitor any new U.S. trade actions after the Supreme Court upheld the legality of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and certain Chinese goods. The ruling removes a major legal obstacle, allowing...
The Supreme Court Ruling In a 6–3 decision (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump), the Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not give the President the authority to impose tariffs.
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping Section 232 tariffs, removing the 18% duty on many Indian exports. Hours later Trump announced a 10% global tariff on all imports, effective immediately. Indian exporters in gems, textiles, pharma and auto...
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
China’s railway giants are turning outward as domestic high‑speed lines saturate, seeking overseas contracts in Southeast and Central Asia. Projects already under way include Thailand’s 610 km line, Malaysia’s 665 km east‑west railway, and Indonesia’s Jakarta‑Bandung service that has moved 12 million passengers....
The Ukraine war has exposed Russia’s structural vulnerabilities, including demographic decline, waning energy leverage over Europe, and growing reliance on China. Simultaneously, Moscow has adapted its military doctrine, emphasizing drones, electronic warfare, and attritional tactics, while sanctions have not collapsed...
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) : 5100 Has Been Reclaimed. Exactly as shared ahead of time. Technical break of market structure , Rising Geopolitical concerns , Tariffs uncertainty , Stagflation concerns , Rate cuts pricing = Higher Gold.
Trump raises his global tariff from 10% to 15%. All in one day. His geopolitics and geoeconomics. Is this it? Or will he do more that affects trade, supply chains, and logistics?
For what its worth, the reason the term “Global Reserve Asset” has gained traction over last 5 yrs is bc those who previously said USD would lose “Global Reserve Currency” status had to pivot after getting everything they ever dreamed...
In my interview with @WSJ, I spoke about Europe’s economy, the importance of central bank independence, AI and more. Read my interview https://t.co/LEbflpU9tB https://t.co/KlfELnA179
Global economies. Trade. Supply chains. Logistics. Was Trump’s action to the Supreme Court striking down his tariffs it? Or will there be more?
Supply Chains Brace for Renewed Turbulence as Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs. If you have not made your supply chains flexible and adaptable, good luck. https://t.co/PfhBGWsOQa
This is utterly moronic on all levels. Have Dutch politicians overdosed on stupid pills? An ‘insane’ new wealth tax has global investors panicking https://t.co/VsB8fRFFkX
On this week's Canada Letter, our @nytimes Saturday morning newsletter, Ian Austen walks you through how the latest Trump tariff drama affects Canada. Also, a roundup of Canada-related stories from across our newsroom. Read, share, sign up! https://t.co/tsuuBxOUtM
GDP/capita is one of the worst metrics to gauge actually important things about people's lives. There, I said it.
On Feb. 10 we @nytimes broke the story that the owner of Ambassador Bridge, a Detroit trucking heir, had met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hours before President Trump took to social media to blast a new competing bridge...
My take on MODI'S WIN over Trump in the US-India Trade Deal: "Ironically, Trump's threats have allowed Modi to dismantle some of India's protectionist measures. Previously, the dismantling wouldn't have been possible. Now Modi can say, 'Enemy Trump made...
I joined the @MilkRoadMacro show this week. Laid out why we remain overweight equities, but you want to still own other parts of the 🌍. https://t.co/X8faci8XLY
The Dollar yesterday fell back to its recent lows against EM, even though core PCE inflation came in hot and the SCOTUS decision should have lifted it. Regime change for USD is upon us. Things that ordinarily lift the Dollar...
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
Week Ahead: Does the Dollar Still Have Legs After the Tariff Ruling?: The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's use of emergency powers to impose widespread tariffs. The court did not rule on refunds. Trump quickly announced a 10% across-the-board…...
Outside of an occasional shock like around Liberation Day, it is not clear that the tariffs had much impact in the FX market. $USD held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing GDP and tariff ruling. What's...
Gold back over $5100 USD and Silver over $84 USD. We have a potential Iran conflict, and the end of the CNY break next week. https://t.co/Eac6sG80np
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 58.8%/yr. LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/5JVou6TFc3
🎩 ✍️ @nytimes 1. IEEPA = 1/4 of Trumpian tariffs; 2. Rates were coming down; exemptions expanding = Affordability TACO under way since summer 2025 https://t.co/OpllUV99nH
Are Trumpian trade deals valid❓ ✍️ @nytimes”The fate of those deals is in doubt now with the Supreme Court decision, because many of the deals were premised on tariff rates under the IEEPA law” https://t.co/ltr9FW5Tl4
