Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
European investment‑grade credit remains resilient in early 2026 despite a 2% YoY dip in EBITDA growth and modest leverage creep. Interest‑coverage ratios have stabilised and rating upgrades in Spain and Italy bolster the sector’s outlook. Spreads have tightened to historic lows, with the Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Corporate OAS near the zero percentile while yields stay range‑bound, making relative value attractive if the ECB holds rates steady. Demand stays robust, supply is set to rise but longer‑dated issuances keep net supply modest, positioning Europe ahead of the U.S. in the credit‑cycle expansion.
Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November. Good...
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
In this episode, hosts Aaron Cameron and Adam Powadiuk discuss how geopolitical turbulence is reshaping commercial real estate, with insights from Evonite co‑founder Jose Pellicer. Pellicer outlines a resilience‑focused, inflation‑protective investment thesis, emphasizing the strength of necessity‑based retail and food‑anchored...
It’s official: The current world order has broken down. In my parlance, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules,...
Canada and Mexico are drafting a joint action plan on critical minerals, infrastructure and supply chains, slated for release in the second half of 2026. The framework targets non‑geological bottlenecks such as permitting, transport corridors, power supply, processing capacity and...
“President Vladimir V. Putin believes he is winning, military and intelligence officials from several Western countries said in recent days. And he is convinced that even if it takes 18 months to two years to complete his hold on the...
Scope Ratings became the first European rating agency approved under the ECB's Eurosystem Credit Assessment Framework, allowing its ratings to be used as collateral in monetary‑policy operations. The firm differentiates itself by embedding the EU’s fragmented legal and market environments...
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
TC Energy projects North American natural‑gas demand will rise by 45 Bcf/d by 2035, a volume comparable to the entire European market. The surge is attributed to accelerating LNG exports, expanding power‑generation capacity, and heightened reliability requirements for distribution utilities. Midwest...
two conflicts. two stalled negotiations. one impatient white house. the next few weeks could look very different from today. @gzeromedia
WHAT A DAY, the S&P 500 has gained around $500 BILLION in market cap, up 0.8%. The index is now up 0.3% YTD 📈 Gold is also trading higher, back above $5,000/oz, as global tensions start to escalate 😳 Mark your calendars...
‘No landing’ has emerged as the prevailing global macro outlook, suggesting the economy will remain in a state of indefinite uncertainty rather than a clear recession or recovery. The author points to persistent inflation, aggressive AI investment, and AI‑induced job...
Empires rise. Empires peak. Empires fall. Medieval thinkers understood the structural forces behind power, decline, and transition. Those same cycles are shaping the world today. Understand the pattern. Know what comes next. Read more at davidmurrin.co.uk #Geopolitics #EmpireCycles #History #Strategy #GlobalPower
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
CMA CGM has placed an order with India’s Cochin Shipyard for six 1,700‑TEU dual‑fuel LNG container vessels. The deal was announced during a New Delhi visit that also included a pledge to recruit an additional 1,500 seafarers, bringing the total Indian crew...
De-Dollarization Threatens US Military Power The dollar’s role in global trade is shrinking. As it loses value, I see us losing influence and even military strength, because our military depends on financing powered by the dollar. The markets are already showing...
Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urging his public support for the Empowering States’ Rights to Protect Consumers Act, which would let states re‑impose credit‑card interest‑rate caps on national banks. The legislation seeks to restore the...
Isabel Schnabel highlighted the euro area’s mounting fiscal pressures, noting that low debt levels often coincide with weak public investment. She examined Germany’s new defence and infrastructure package, showing it can lift GDP but also raise debt ratios under different...
India's navy has begun seizing shadow‑fleet oil tankers within its exclusive economic zone, capturing three vessels since early February. The shadow fleet, a network of roughly 1,000 de‑commissioned tankers, moves 3‑4 million barrels of sanctioned crude daily from Russia, Iran...
Equity volatility in the US is easing, opening the door for a near‑term rally in 10‑year euro swap rates that sit about 20 basis points below their January peak. Market participants expect a bear‑steepening move as the front end of...
France’s inflation fell to 0.3% year‑on‑year in January, the lowest level since 2016 and well below the euro‑area average of 1.7%. The drop, driven by falling manufactured‑goods and energy prices, leaves core inflation at just 0.7% and fuels criticism that...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 300 points, or 0.65%, as investors returned to equities ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January minutes. Nvidia surged over 2% after Meta announced an expanded AI‑chip partnership worth tens of billions, reinforcing Nvidia’s...
J.B. Hunt’s CFO said demand is slightly stronger than early‑January expectations as truck capacity tightens, reflected in rising tender rejections and spot rates. Regulatory pressures on the driver pool and recent winter storms have limited supply, creating a modest but...
Kevin Hassett, former Trump economic adviser, blasted a New York Fed research paper that argued tariffs mainly hurt American consumers, calling it "shoddy scholarship" and the worst paper in Fed history. He urged that the authors be disciplined for their...
Investors are questioning US asset allocations as the dollar begins 2026 on a weaker footing. A new ING webinar will examine whether the current sell‑off is driven by cyclical market dynamics rather than a deeper structural de‑dollarisation trend. Speakers will...
UNITE HERE’s new "Inhospitable" report links recent White House immigration crackdowns to a sharp downturn in U.S. tourism. The study documents more than 2.5 million fewer international visitors in 2025, a $1 billion drop in travel receipts, and 98,000 lost hospitality jobs....
The Trump administration is advancing five domestic policy initiatives that touch credit, housing, monetary policy, corporate governance, and digital‑asset regulation. Proposed credit reforms would tighten loan underwriting, while housing changes could modify the mortgage interest deduction. Monetary officials hint at...
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
FOMC minutes suggest that the hawks pushed back. "Several would support two-sided language" about policy direction and "several" noted that if inflation remains high, rate hikes might be necessary.
Metals and mining dominated the TSX Venture Exchange’s 2025 top‑performer list, with 48 of the 51 entries coming from the sector. Junior miners posted an average share‑price gain of 443% and a combined market capitalisation of $19.9 billion. Record liquidity supported...
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Advances Toward Yearly Open – Breakout Risk Builds https://t.co/LswuuI4iVW $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/AfSOwTDtR3
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, outpacing the 0.4% forecast, and posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year gain. Utilities output surged 2.1% month‑over‑month, while mining slipped 0.2% and manufacturing climbed 0.6%. The index’s current level is at or below the start‑of‑recession threshold...
Few FOMC minutes takeaways: 1) Cmte basically in line with markets on major economic variables 2) Labor markets no longer outright weakening but remain fragile 3) Inflation decelerating as tariff passthru done, housing has downside (a misread on bad CPI method in Oct?) 1/...
"U.S. import tariffs haven't been enough to stop the United States losing another aluminium smelter, leaving the country with just five primary metal production plants." 😲 https://t.co/T5U4nxglb0 https://t.co/EOQY3OwzE6
Global equities have surged ahead of the U.S. market in 2026, with the MSCI EAFE up roughly 8% and the MSCI ACWI ex‑U.S. gaining about 8.5% year‑to‑date, while the S&P 500 is down 0.5%. Goldman Sachs notes this is the widest...
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
New York City faces a fiscal crisis –– a $5.4B budget deficit. Mayor Mamdani’s plan: tax the most profitable corporations or INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. MAMDANI’S PLAN = A PLAN TO KILL NEW YORK’S ECONOMY. https://t.co/HKJXzJh4Cu
US investors are gloomy on France as Macron era approaches its end https://t.co/a4q0NEuH3I via @WHorobin https://t.co/vhSuc9Ovr6
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
You just have to respect markets and the games they play Trump first term: Public is all about long Energy, short Solar.... Solar stocks go on an epic run Trump 2nd term: Tariffs going to crush International economies.... International stocks just thrashing...
UK inflation slowed to its weakest level since March 2025, bolstering the case for an interest rate cut when the Bank of England meets next month https://t.co/yJqzpiJ61p via @irinaanghel12 @PhilAldrick https://t.co/a5Mov7Jkhv
Tariffs caused just a small China trade diversion, ECB study shows https://t.co/2xTwmZXdG6 via @weberalexander https://t.co/NfggkusEyQ
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says his successor must be independent and committed to Europe after his early resignation gave President Emmanuel Macron a surprise opportunity to pick the next central bank chief https://t.co/VVGP1D9Dj6 via @WHorobin https://t.co/rmqeTU4qJ7
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Coils Between Key Levels – Breakout Looms https://t.co/CxUMkIN5mg $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ILpuVkkqnw
