Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Meeting of 18-19 March 2026
The ECB Governing Council met on 18‑19 March 2026 and flagged a sharp uptick in inflation risk after the Middle‑East war drove Brent crude above $100 a barrel and pushed European gas prices up 52%. Market participants now price roughly 40 basis‑points of rate hikes by year‑end, reversing earlier expectations of a 25‑bp cut. Inflation forecasts were revised up to 2.6% for 2026, while growth outlook slipped to 0.9% amid weaker sentiment and a deteriorating terms‑of‑trade for the euro area. The council highlighted heightened uncertainty, tighter financial conditions and a modest rise in sovereign‑bond spreads, especially outside Germany.
Circle CEO Sees ‘Tremendous Opportunity’ for Yuan Stablecoin Despite China Curbs
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire told Reuters that a yuan‑backed stablecoin could be issued within three to five years, presenting a “tremendous opportunity” for China to export its currency. He contrasted this prospect with Beijing’s recent crackdown that declares offshore issuance...
Fed's Rate‑Cut Dilemma: Weak Economy vs Rising Inflation
Normally a weaker economy might lead the Fed to cut rates. But if inflation is also rising, rate cuts risk adding fuel to the price problem. Two goals, one instrument, lousy trade-off.
Dutch Economy Sees Recent Momentum Beginning to Fade
At the start of 2026 the Dutch economy, which posted a strong 1.8% growth in 2025, is now expected to slow to about 1.3% in the first quarter. Recent data show declines in industrial production, exports, retail sales and car...
Underpriced Inflation Risk: 2021 Gas Surge From Refill Delay
Still think this is an underpriced inflation risk, not due to the ME situation per se, though it doesn't help. In 2021, gas prices rose strongly too in the latter part of the year on the eve of the...
Dollar Dominance Is Surviving the Iran War – Just About
The Iran‑Israel war has not eroded the U.S. dollar’s global dominance, as the greenback rose about 2% against a basket of currencies and U.S. asset markets performed relatively well. The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed 35 basis points to 4.3%, a...
The Daily Feather — Repeating Like a GIF
The Daily Feather’s latest post revisits the 1995 Netscape era, spotlighting Lisa Gelobter’s engineering leadership at Netscape Communications. By drawing parallels between the early web boom and today’s tech landscape, the piece argues that industry cycles repeat like a GIF....
DRC Boosts US Copper Sales Fivefold to 500,000 Tonnes
The Democratic Republic of Congo has expanded its planned copper sales to the United States to 500,000 tonnes, a fivefold increase from the January commitment. The sales will be marketed through a joint venture between state miner Gécamines, Mercuria Energy...
Treasury Secretary Bessent Forecasts 3%‑plus US Growth Amid Inflation Concerns
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Washington audience that the U.S. economy remains strong enough to grow beyond 3% in 2026, despite higher oil prices and global inflation risks. His upbeat outlook clashes with recent IMF downgrades and rising energy...
Trump Wants Regime Change at the Fed
In this episode, Paul Krugman warns that former President Donald Trump is attempting to undermine the Federal Reserve’s independence by pressuring for lower interest rates and targeting Fed officials. Krugman explains why monetary policy is a technical, credibility‑driven tool that...
ECB Minutes From March Meeting Confirm Hawkish Pivot
The European Central Bank’s March minutes confirm a hawkish pivot, yet the Governing Council signals no rush to tighten policy further. Officials highlighted downside risks to growth from the Middle East conflict and upside risks to inflation, especially via stronger...
UK Economy Grew Faster than Expected in February Ahead of Iran War
The UK’s economy expanded by 0.5% in February, the strongest monthly gain in over two years and well above the 0.1% forecast. The Office for National Statistics also revised January’s growth to 0.1%, indicating a modest rebound before the Iran‑related...
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Warns a Six‑to‑twelve‑month Hormuz Shutdown Would Trigger a Global Recession
Citadel founder Ken Griffin told the Semafor World Economic conference that a six‑to‑12‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz would make a global recession unavoidable. He linked the risk to oil prices above $100 a barrel and the chokepoint’s role...
Middle East War Spikes Oil Prices, Straining Emerging Market Budgets and Fuel Subsidies
The war in the Middle East has triggered the biggest oil‑supply disruption in history, sending Brent up over 60% and forcing Jamaica’s government to abandon a $4.50‑per‑litre fuel cap, a move that could cost the island $80 million in lost revenue....
18 Ways to Break Through Global Supply Chain Complexity
The article outlines 18 actionable strategies for global supply‑chain leaders to navigate mounting tariff volatility, export controls and geopolitical risk. A recent Supreme Court decision replaced broad IEEPA tariffs with a 10% temporary duty under the Trade Act of 1974,...
Nigerian Naira Holds at N1,344 per Dollar as FX Inflows Boost Stability
The Nigerian naira traded at roughly N1,344 per US dollar on Thursday, marking a modest appreciation after opening the session higher. Analysts credit fresh foreign currency inflows and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s backlog‑clearing measures for the steadiness, while noting...
Asian Equities Surge as Iran‑war Risk Fades, Nifty Jumps 500 Points
Indian benchmarks surged Thursday, with the Nifty 50 up about 500 points to 24,385 and the Sensex gaining 0.7% to 78,647, as optimism over a US‑Iran ceasefire trimmed war‑risk premiums. The rally spread across Asia‑Pacific, lifting Japan's Nikkei and Hong...
Pimco Goes Overweight on European Sovereign Debt After War‑Driven Selloff
Pimco has shifted its stance to overweight European sovereign debt, adding exposure across its global bond funds after a sharp selloff sparked by the Middle East conflict. Chief Investment Officer Andrew Balls says the war‑driven unwind created a pricing gap...
Trump Threatens to Fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell Again, Heightening Political Clash
Former President Donald Trump announced on April 15 that he will fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the Senate does not confirm a successor by May 15. The threat comes amid a DOJ probe of a $2.5 billion Fed renovation...
ING Monthly: The World Waits for a Climbdown
The six‑week war in the Middle East is adding a fresh stagflationary drag to the global economy, according to ING's macro chief Carsten Brzeski. Conflict‑driven supply‑chain bottlenecks are pushing energy and commodity prices higher, while growth forecasts are being trimmed....
World "Must Brace for Tough Times" Says IMF Chief Georgieva
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Middle‑East conflict is already dampening global growth, revising the IMF’s outlook from 3.4% last year to 3.1% by 2026 and flagging a worst‑case drop to 2%. She highlighted soaring energy and...
Germany Faces Asymmetric Risks: Small AI Gains, Large Shock Losses
Good Morning from Germany, where the risk map is brutally asymmetric. Oxford Economics says an AI boom would add just 0.1ppts to annual growth over the next 3 years. A tech downturn would cut 0.6ppts, and a worst-case trade war...
Global Imbalances Are Back. Who’s to Blame?
Global imbalances are resurfacing, echoing the pre‑2008 “saving‑glut” era when Asian economies amassed massive dollar reserves while the United States ran a large current‑account deficit. Economists now observe that Asia’s trade surpluses remain in the multi‑trillion‑dollar range, keeping the dollar...
Pakistan’s Deft Diplomacy Is an Economic Blessing. And a Curse
Pakistan’s diplomatic tightrope between Washington and Tehran is delivering short‑term economic relief, as Gulf‑linked aid and lower oil costs ease inflation pressures. The country’s ability to act as a regional intermediary has attracted foreign assistance and trade concessions. However, this...
The World Waits for a Climbdown
ING’s Carsten Brzeski outlines a base‑case scenario where Iran‑U.S. talks extend 2‑4 weeks, leading to a limited blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before traffic resumes. Oil prices are projected to dip below $90 per barrel by year‑end, easing some pressure...
Three Scenarios for Energy, Central Banks, Rates and FX Markets
ING outlines three energy‑price scenarios tied to the Middle East cease‑fire outlook. In a base case, Brent crude steadies at $90‑100 per barrel and the euro trades around 1.18‑1.20 by year‑end. A moderate disruption pushes Brent above $100 and lifts...
Our Latest Views on the Major Central Banks
ING’s latest outlook assesses the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ as they navigate a fresh oil price shock and lingering inflation pressures. The Fed sees inflation testing 4% but expects sub‑2% by 2027 if energy costs fall, opening space for...
The High North Is Not ‘Elsewhere’: Europe’s Arctic Blind Spot
The article argues that Europe’s Arctic is a strategic core, not a peripheral frontier, yet EU policy has lagged behind the region’s contribution to food security, energy, and critical minerals. Recent events—Russia’s war in Ukraine, the full‑scale Yamal LNG shipments...
Eurozone's 2.5% Inflation Becomes New Normal
An in the Eurozone 2.5% is the new 2%; it was before the war in Iran. I think this can be explained in part, by a simple macro framework via the interaction between looser fiscal and tighter monetary...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% Amid Tech Surge
China collapse fans will not be pleased.... China's Q1 2026 GDP just came in at 5.0% YoY — beating expectations, matching full-year 2025, fastest pace since Q2 2025. Services surging, semiconductors up 20.6%, industrial robots up 24.4%. Yes, property still a drag. Yes,...
US Automakers Fear EU Safety, Emissions Rules Endanger Tariff Deal
The American Automotive Policy Council warned that draft changes to the EU’s Individual Vehicle Approval (IVA) rules could block U.S. pickup trucks such as the Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F‑150 and Ram 1500 from entering Europe, threatening the 2025 U.S.–EU tariff...
Fed Leadership Uncertain After Trump's Threat to Fire Powell
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell. It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts...
UK Braces for Food Shortages Amid Iran War, CO2 Crunch
UK prepares for food shortages caused by Iran war CO2 crunch https://t.co/qFnOtL67qw via @AlexJFMorales https://t.co/bHzHKpAe8F
Wall Street Scales to Record Highs as Investors Bet the End of the Iran War Is in Sight
Wall Street surged to fresh record highs on Wednesday as investors grew optimistic that the US‑Iran war may soon end. The S&P 500 breached the 7,000‑point barrier for the first time, closing at 7,022.9, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.6% to...
Blockade Targets Iran's Oil Lifeline, Forces Negotiation
Great piece by @PatcohenNYT in today’s @nytimes on what the blockade means for Iran’s economy. Oil exports are the life blood of Iran’s economy, so choking those off is a good inducement for the mullahs to negotiate in earnest and...
IMF Growth Forecasts Too Pessimistic, Revised Upward After Conflict
One year ago, the IMF put out its growth forecasts (blue) right after Liberation Day. Those forecasts were far too pessimistic and were revised up 6 months later (red). It's the same with this week's forecasts if the war -...
Bullish Narrative Around India’s Economy at Odds with Struggling Rupee
The Indian rupee has risen about 1.5% since March 27, making it Asia’s top performer, but the rebound masks deeper strains from an Iran‑war‑driven energy shock that is widening the current‑account deficit and stoking inflation. The Reserve Bank of India responded...
Trump Seeks to Turn Fed Win Into Prolonged Defeat
President Trump seems to be trying to find a way to turn an easy win on the Fed into a long slog of a loss. My latest column: https://t.co/K1glC171IN
U.S. Launches First Day of Iran Blockade
The blockade of Iran has officially begun. The first day was a bit slow, but this remains a monumental move by the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/IHDSzOzsGV #iranwar #straitofhormuz #geopolitics https://t.co/1fzk2tvwUx
Iran War: Six Weeks in, How Have Food Prices Changed?
Food prices have risen since the Iran war began, but seasonal planting has limited the immediate impact. Vegetable oils, especially soybean oil, surged to two‑year highs as they act as crude oil substitutes in biofuel production. Grains and oilseeds have...
Iran War Market Impact Mirrors April‑May 2020 Covid Shock
To the extent Covid is the analogy for the war in Iran’s impact on markets, it might be April-May 2020 rather than February 2020.
UK Growth Surged Pre‑Iran War, Highlighting Middle East Impact
The UK economy was expanding quickly in the weeks leading up to the outbreak of war in Iran, revealing the extent to which conflict in the Middle East has changed British fortunes https://t.co/98fS2AXHPL via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/UzfESDAIWx
UK Economy on ‘Stronger Footing’ than Expected Before Energy Shock After February Growth Surge – Business Live
UK February GDP surged 0.5% month‑on‑month, far outpacing the 0.1% consensus, driven by a broad‑based services rebound and a 1.0% jump in construction output. Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says the economy entered the Iran‑related energy shock on a stronger footing,...
Energy Prices Far Below 2022 Peaks, Economy Remains Stable
On a serious note, this utter nonsense from Luke doesn’t pass the simplest of reality tests. If you look at weighted prices across oil, gas, electricity, etc. in the West, we remain miles below peak 2022 prices - and those prices...
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
UK Could Face Gaps on Supermarket Shelves by Summer if Iran War Continues
UK ministers are preparing for a ‘reasonable worst‑case scenario’ as the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, potentially disrupting carbon‑dioxide supplies essential for food processing. The government’s Exercise Turnstone, run by the Cobra emergency committee, includes...
IMF, Global Investors See Indonesia as Bright Spot, BI Says
The International Monetary Fund and global investors have singled out Indonesia as a bright spot in the world economy, citing its resilient macro‑economic fundamentals. Bank Indonesia highlighted that the country has kept its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP through...
The Morning Briefing: Schroders Hit by Outflows as Turmoil Bites; UK GDP Rises but Iran War Darkens Outlook
Schroders recorded net outflows of £2.2 billion (≈ $2.8 billion) in Q1 2026 as market volatility prompted investors to pull money from equity and multi‑asset funds. The United Kingdom’s economy showed a modest GDP rise of about 0.3 percent year‑on‑year, offering a brief respite from...
China’s Renewable Growth Dwarfs World, Contradicting Trump’s Claim
At the World Economic Forum, Trump claimed China makes renewable equipment but doesn’t use it. Reality: Over the past few years, China’s growth in wind and solar usage has exceeded the rest of the world COMBINED. TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARELY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/SGRBqnFkj6
UK GDP Grows 0.5% but Iran War Darkens Outlook
The UK economy expanded 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, accelerating from a 0.3% rise in the prior quarter and ending a period of flat growth. Gains were broad‑based, with services up 0.5% and production output climbing 1.2%,...