Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Costamare secured nearly $1 bn of fresh contracted revenue by forward‑chartering 12 containerships, generating about $940 m in incremental revenue. The deals lift fleet employment to 96% for 2026 and 92% for 2027, expanding the company’s contracted revenue backlog to roughly $3.4 bn with a TEU‑weighted duration of 4.5 years. The fixtures include five 14,400‑TEU vessels on eight‑year charters and a mix of smaller ships on three‑year terms. Concurrently, Costamare is advancing a new‑building programme of six 3,100‑TEU vessels slated for delivery in 2027‑28, each backed by eight‑year time charters.
Anyone who trusts official Chinese reserve data is a fool. The blind spot in the official narrative about China "dropping the dollar" is China's continued SHADOW dollar reserve accumulation, which looks like the below chart👇 The big January increase in state banks'...
The episode reviews key developments across Asia, highlighting China's 2026 economic agenda focused on domestic demand and tech self‑reliance, U.S. accusations of a secret Chinese nuclear test, and the PLA's push to overhaul English training. It also covers political shifts...
Electric‑vehicle sales have surged nearly 700% this decade, driving a rapid rise in spodumene shipments from Australia to China and doubling bulk volumes since 2023. Panamax vessels now carry almost half of the 7 million tonnes of dry bulk moved last...
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
Glencore has secured a land‑access agreement with Gecamines that extends the Kamoto Copper Company’s mine life into the mid‑2040s and unlocks additional ore zones, enabling the asset to target 300,000 tonnes of copper annually. The deal is a cornerstone of...
South Korea announced it will seek to reinstate the no‑fly zone over the Demilitarized Zone that was established under the 2018 inter‑Korean military agreement. Unification Minister Chung Dong‑young disclosed the plan after earlier apologising for civilian‑operated drones that entered North...
DHT Holdings has secured a one‑year charter for its 2012‑built VLCC DHT Opal at $90,000 per day, starting this month. The rate underscores how tight the market has become for the world’s largest crude carriers, with Gulf‑China spot earnings now...
The article examines how Azerbaijan’s new rail, gas and power corridor through Armenia is reshaping the Caucasus‑Central Asia nexus, while the United States seeks a 74% stake in the infrastructure for five decades. Moscow and Tehran face pressure to intervene...
HM Treasury published its monthly "Forecasts for the UK economy" comparison on 18 February 2026. The 27‑page PDF presents short‑term forecasts for 2026‑27 and financial year 2025‑26/2026‑27, alongside medium‑term projections through 2030 and FY 2029‑30. The data reflect only the views of a selected...
The Zero Emission Port Alliance (ZEPA) introduced a load‑profile explorer, transition guide, and updated voluntary standards to accelerate battery‑electric container‑handling equipment adoption. The standards aim to reduce design fragmentation and improve interoperability, while total‑cost‑of‑ownership data shows electric gear remains pricier...
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro roadmap, confirming that the current preparation phase began in November 2025 and a pilot is slated for mid‑2027. The ECB aims for a first issuance in 2029, contingent on EU legislators...
The European Central Bank has signed a collaboration agreement with Spain’s ONCE Foundation to make the digital euro app universally accessible, especially for people with disabilities, older adults, and those with limited digital skills. The foundation will provide technical advice,...
Alberto Naudon, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, highlighted that 2025 delivered stronger‑than‑expected growth, with non‑mining activity expanding close to 3% and gross fixed capital formation rising about 7% driven by mining and energy projects. Inflation accelerated early...
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the bipartisan No Tax Dollars for Terrorists Act, aiming to prevent American taxpayer money from funding the Taliban or affiliated terrorist groups. The legislation follows a SIGAR report indicating that roughly $3.83 billion of...
Joe Studwell’s new book “How Africa Works” asks why the continent remains poor and outlines policies that could accelerate growth, emphasizing agriculture, demographics, and the “enclave effect” of resource extraction. He profiles four early‑movers—Botswana, Mauritius, Ethiopia, and Rwanda—showing how targeted...
Zimbabwe, a landlocked nation without a maritime authority, has reported a false flag registration for the aframax tanker Range Vale to the International Maritime Organization. The vessel, built in 2005, has cycled through bogus registries in Comoros, Zimbabwe and currently...
The RAND report examines systemic supply‑chain risks facing the U.S. economy stemming from trade concentration and geopolitical conflict. It highlights how reliance on a narrow set of foreign suppliers can magnify disruption impacts. The analysis calls for coordinated public‑private strategies...
USDCAD is climbing as Canada’s latest inflation data came in below expectations, reviving expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts. The softer CPI reading narrows the interest‑rate gap with the United States, making the U.S. dollar more attractive and...
USD/JPY edged higher this week as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalization. The pair’s modest rise reflects expectations of incremental BOJ rate hikes and a narrowing US‑Japan interest‑rate gap. An Elliott Wave update highlights a key resistance...
TankerTrackers.com, a leading open‑source monitor of the maritime shadow fleet, released a massive free dataset covering 1,469 active black‑listed tankers. The platform disclosed daily oil volumes on the four biggest trade lanes, led by Iran‑to‑China at 1.64 million barrels per day,...
The EUR/USD pair slipped modestly this week as markets anticipate Friday's core PCE inflation report. Traders are closely watching the hourly chart, which now displays a nascent corrective Elliott Wave formation. The update suggests the pair could test near‑term support...
UK inflation eased to a near‑year low, with the CPI falling to 3% year‑on‑year in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December. The slowdown, driven by lower petrol, airfares and food prices, has revived expectations that the Bank of England...
2026 opens with heightened supply‑chain volatility as markets grapple with tight capacity, an early Chinese New Year, and the Red Sea’s tentative reopening. Geopolitical fragmentation, lingering trade‑policy uncertainty and economic instability force shippers to rethink tender timing and rate‑locking strategies....
The Trump administration’s Project Vault earmarks about $12 billion to create a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, a public‑private partnership that purchases, stores and manages a diversified portfolio of essential raw materials. Japan’s current METI‑JOGMEC approach evaluates projects individually, which could...
The Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory in Japan’s snap election has steadied the government‑bond market, halting a sharp rise in long‑term yields. Foreign institutional investors, who had been offloading JGBs, have paused sales and begun modest buying. Domestic investors are...
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with France’s Port of Marseille Fos to deepen cooperation on trade facilitation, port innovation and energy transition. The pact will create an IMEC Ports Club to coordinate the...
The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) has condemned the interim India‑US trade agreement, branding it anti‑farmer and urging President Droupadi Murmu to halt its signing. The coalition demanded the removal of the commerce minister and the IAS officer who signed a...
The Seatrade Maritime Club will host an exclusive, closed‑door roundtable at CMA Shipping 2026, gathering senior maritime executives for candid discussions under the Chatham House Rule. The three sessions will address geopolitical trade disruptions, electronic navigation threats such as GPS spoofing,...
The episode explains why global financial markets largely ignore Middle‑East geopolitical turmoil, despite oil price spikes of about 10% this year. It argues that diversified oil production outside the region and modest growth forecasts mean investors see limited macro‑economic impact...
Nigeria’s states received a record N33.27 trillion from the Federation Account Allocation Committee between January and November 2025, far exceeding the N25.46 trillion allocated in 2024. Despite the surge, per‑capita spending on health and education remains dismally low, with implementation rates of only...
China and Nigeria celebrated 55 years of diplomatic ties, marking a shift toward deeper economic integration. The partnership, upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2024, now emphasizes higher‑value trade and industrial transformation. A new Zero‑Tariff Agreement grants qualifying...
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned that while artificial intelligence could eventually lift productivity, the Federal Reserve must still ensure inflation moves sustainably lower. She highlighted the limited macro evidence of an AI‑driven productivity surge and cautioned that narrow...
India’s alternative investment fund (AIF) sector has crossed the ₹15.05 lakh crore mark, underscoring rapid scale and emerging maturity. Equity‑oriented AIFs have delivered roughly 8.7 % alpha over the BSE Sensex across multiple cycles, highlighting consistent outperformance. Domestic investors now contribute about 55 %...
Infosys unveiled its AI‑first value framework, Topaz, aimed at capturing a $300‑$400 billion services opportunity by 2030. The platform is already embedded in 90 % of its top 200 clients, contributing 5.5 % of revenue, and supports new partnerships such as Infosys‑Cognition and...
Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), the nation’s largest domestic institutional investor, dramatically re‑balanced its ₹17.83 lakh crore portfolio in the December quarter. It poured roughly ₹5.4 billion into top IT names – TCS, HCL Technologies and Coforge – lifting IT holdings from...
Netweb Technologies India announced its ‘Make in India’ AI supercomputing portfolio, featuring the desktop‑sized Tyrone Camarero Spark and the larger GB200 system built on NVIDIA’s Blackwell‑Grace architecture. The Spark delivers 1 petaflop of AI performance with 128 GB unified memory, while the...
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +50.50 (0.20%) 25,760.50 DowJones +32.26 (+0.07%) 49,533.19 Nasdaq +31.71 (+0.14%) 22,578.38 India Vix -0.6600 (-4.95%) 12.6700 S&P 500 +7.05 (+0.10%) 6,843.22
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
China met its official 5.0% GDP target in 2025, largely on the back of robust export growth to Asia, Europe and Latin America. Manufacturing investment, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, remained resilient, while overall fixed‑asset investment fell 3.8% and...
$USD recovered from the late sell-off in North America yesterday. It is trading firmer against most G10 currencies, but short-term participants seem to lack much conviction. Key US data and SCOTUS still lie ahead. See https://t.co/Ax3iZrTLT7 https://t.co/01M5ylxWt7
The markets are extending higher after yesterday's V-shaped recovery - here's what it means 👇
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Once you reach 60, your conditional life expectancy is another 20+ years. Problem in Southern Europe is that relatively few people work, so population aging becomes very expensive for the state. That only gets fixed if the ECB steps back...
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
The Economist: “Last month the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, another state-backed trade group, appears to have deferred the publication of its weekly sales data—a sure sign of growing anxiety over weakening numbers.” https://t.co/feytAJBiP2
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
Will stock markets tip over amid worries about the Fed dragging its feet on rate cuts? FOMC meeting minutes are in focus. #stockmarkets #fed #fomc #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/yYSQfOx27L
