Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
UK Could Face Gaps on Supermarket Shelves by Summer if Iran War Continues
UK ministers are preparing for a ‘reasonable worst‑case scenario’ as the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, potentially disrupting carbon‑dioxide supplies essential for food processing. The government’s Exercise Turnstone, run by the Cobra emergency committee, includes a £100 million ($127 million) investment to restart the mothballed Ensus bio‑ethanol plant, which produces CO₂ as a by‑product. Retail giant Tesco says it has seen no CO₂ shortages, but analysts warn that shortages could lead to gaps in chicken, pork and fizzy‑drink shelves by summer. The contingency planning aims to reassure consumers while safeguarding the UK’s food‑safety and refrigeration infrastructure.
IMF, Global Investors See Indonesia as Bright Spot, BI Says
The International Monetary Fund and global investors have singled out Indonesia as a bright spot in the world economy, citing its resilient macro‑economic fundamentals. Bank Indonesia highlighted that the country has kept its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP through...
The Morning Briefing: Schroders Hit by Outflows as Turmoil Bites; UK GDP Rises but Iran War Darkens Outlook
Schroders recorded net outflows of £2.2 billion (≈ $2.8 billion) in Q1 2026 as market volatility prompted investors to pull money from equity and multi‑asset funds. The United Kingdom’s economy showed a modest GDP rise of about 0.3 percent year‑on‑year, offering a brief respite from...
UK GDP Grows 0.5% but Iran War Darkens Outlook
The UK economy expanded 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, accelerating from a 0.3% rise in the prior quarter and ending a period of flat growth. Gains were broad‑based, with services up 0.5% and production output climbing 1.2%,...
Middle East Conflict to Redesign Container Trade Flows
Container lines are rapidly reconfiguring routes to bypass Gulf chokepoints after the Middle East conflict escalated, according to Drewry analysis. Higher war‑risk insurance costs and volatile fuel prices are prompting carriers to seek alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, Bab...
The End of the Hormuz Bargain
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and large volumes of LNG, fertilizer and key feedstocks travel, is no longer a neutral corridor. Escalating Middle‑East tensions and unilateral toll demands have prompted many...
It May Be Time for Sweden to Join the Euro
Swedish economist Lars Calmfors argues that the benefits of euro adoption now outweigh the costs. Sweden has remained outside the monetary union since a 2003 referendum rejected the euro, but recent analysis finds limited economic differences between membership and non‑membership....
Dimitar Radev: Economic Prospects in an Uncertain Global Environment
Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev warned that the war‑driven energy shock is shifting Bulgaria’s outlook from modest growth and low inflation to a baseline of about 3 % GDP growth and 3.7 % inflation in 2026. While 2025 saw 3.2 % growth...
China's Economy Grows Faster than Expected Despite Iran War
China’s first‑quarter GDP rose 5% year‑on‑year, outpacing the 4.8% consensus and meeting the upper bound of its newly‑set 4.5‑5% growth target. The rebound was anchored by a manufacturing surge, while property investment stayed depressed. Export growth decelerated sharply to 2.5%...
The EU–India Deal Is Not Enough. India Needs Investment – Now
The EU and India signed a long‑awaited free‑trade agreement that cuts tariffs on cars, wine, pharmaceuticals and digital services. However, the pact omits any binding commitments on manufacturing investment, leaving a critical gap for India’s need to attract foreign direct...
Investors See War Relief, Yet Market Remains Uncertain
While no one has a crystal ball to foresee the exact future outcome, investors seem to be starting to think that the worst of the US-Iran war is over. As evidenced by yesterday's S&P 500 closing price. That said, I...
China Trims US Treasury Holdings Amid Rising Debt Supply as Global Ownership Hits Record
China’s central bank modestly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings in February, continuing a multi‑year trend of diversifying its foreign‑exchange reserves. The cut came even as total foreign ownership of U.S. sovereign debt reached an all‑time high, buoyed by private investors...
Aussie Leads as Risk Optimism Builds, Strong Jobs Push AUD/USD Toward 0.72 Break
The Australian dollar surged toward the 0.72 resistance as global risk appetite improved, buoyed by easing US‑Iran tensions and strong domestic employment data. AUD/USD hit its highest level since late 2022, reflecting both dollar weakness and heightened confidence in the commodity‑linked...
China Supplies 44pc of Imports as Australia’s Timber Bill Hits $3B
Australia’s wood‑product imports topped roughly $2 billion USD in 2025, with mainland China supplying $870 million USD – about 44 percent of the total. Plywood, LVL and glulam alone accounted for $523 million USD, representing 26 percent of spend, while builders’ joinery and sawnwood added...
Big Energy Shock Will Push up Prices, Bank Boss Tells BBC
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the IMF meeting that the world faces a ‘very big energy shock’ that will push up UK prices. He said the surge in oil and gas costs makes any decision on interest‑rate moves...
Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Global Supply Implications>
In Q1 2026 the U.S.–Iran conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 40% of global nitrogen trade and 20% of LNG supply. The chokepoint closure drove Brent crude from about $61 to a peak above $117 per barrel before diplomatic...
Jorgovanka Tabaković: EU Economy and Global Economic Developments
Serbian central bank Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković highlighted the IMF’s modest upward revision of the Eurozone growth outlook and warned that sustained oil price spikes could add 40 basis points of inflation while trimming global output by up to 0.2%. She...
Are Ships Evading the US Blockade of Iran Ports?
The U.S. Central Command announced a maritime blockade of all traffic to and from Iran ports on 13 April, turning back ten vessels with no break‑throughs in the first 52 hours. Iranian‑flagged ships such as Kashan, Golbon and the Comoros‑flagged Blue Sky 4 skirted...
‘Investors Are Sleepwalking’ on Iran War Risks
On the Infrastructure Investor Podcast, I Squared founder Sadek Wahba cautioned investors about an over‑hyped AI infrastructure boom and highlighted that markets are underestimating the geopolitical fallout from the Iran‑Israel conflict. He argued that infrastructure assets remain resilient thanks to...
China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP expanded 1.3% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q1 2026, implying an annualized growth rate of about 5.3%, slightly above the 4.8% consensus. The modest gain was driven by an 8.9% year‑over‑year jump in infrastructure spending,...
Hormuz: Not Closed — But Not Working
The Strait of Hormuz remains physically open, but vessel traffic has collapsed, creating a semi‑functional chokepoint. While ships still transit, the flow is at a fraction of normal levels, reflecting partial enforcement of blockades and heightened uncertainty. Iran’s oil exports...
Making 18 Cents on the Dollar
UK banks have kept credit‑card interest rates near historic highs even as the Bank of England’s policy rate has dropped, creating a gap that fuels excess earnings. A chart from Panmure Liberum shows the divergence, indicating banks are not passing...
Yannis Stournaras: The Greek Economy Ten Years After the Crisis - Lessons for National Economies, the Eurozone and Future Challenges
Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras reflected on Greece’s decade‑long journey from a sovereign‑debt crisis to fiscal surplus, highlighting how aggressive consolidation, banking restructuring and structural reforms restored credibility. He linked those lessons to today’s heightened geopolitical risk, noting that...
India Overtakes US for Second Spot in Solar Growth
Market Share: While China remains the undisputed leader (accounting for over 60% of global additions), India is set to secure the #2 spot for yearly growth, overtaking the United States.
Thursday Briefing: What It Will Take for Britain to Break up with Natural Gas
Britain’s economy remains tightly linked to natural‑gas prices, a relationship that exploded into a cost‑of‑living crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A new geopolitical flashpoint – the US‑Israel strike on Iran – threatens to push gas prices higher,...
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
China’s Renewable Growth Dwarfs World, Contradicting Trump’s Claim
At the World Economic Forum, Trump claimed China makes renewable equipment but doesn’t use it. Reality: Over the past few years, China’s growth in wind and solar usage has exceeded the rest of the world COMBINED. TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARELY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/SGRBqnFkj6
Fuel Rollback: Diesel May Drop ₱20, Gasoline ₱3 Next Week
Fuel prices in the Philippines are set to retreat next week as easing Middle‑East tensions push global benchmarks lower. Industry data based on the Platts Singapore mean projects diesel to drop ₱18‑20 per liter (about $0.36) and gasoline to fall...
China’s New‑home Prices Dip 0.21% in March, Easing Pressure
1/3 Bloomberg: "New-home prices in 70 cities in China dropped 0.21% in March, the second consecutive month of easing pressure and the smallest decline in 11 months." https://t.co/OQEWA9QELf
Iran Conflict Undermines Gulf Oil Leaders' Stability
The Iran war complicates life for the custodians of the Gulf’s oil fortunes @TheEconomist https://t.co/VapxyZ5JLr
Russia Had to Spend an Extra $130 Billion to Buy Goods While Sanctioned, Analysts From NATO's Frontline Say
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau estimates Russia has spent an extra $130 billion on alternative imports of Western goods between 2022 and 2025, equivalent to an annual $32.5 billion loss. The report adds that Russian export volumes in key commodities such as iron...
No Viable Alternative: $2 Trillion
There is no alternative (TINA). Or put it another way, where would you hide USD2trn? Not in HSI...
China's Q1 2026 Imports Surge 19.6%, Exports Rise
1/4 On Tuesday China reported that the total value of exports in the first three months of 2026 was RMB 6,846.7 billion yuan, up 11.9% year on year, while the total value of imports was 4,991.3 billion yuan, up 19.6%. https://t.co/5TDMdkLpCw
Iran War: What Does Tehran Want and Will It Get It?
In a televised discussion, Gideon Rachman and Brookings scholar Suzanne Maloney explore Tehran’s objectives in the ongoing Iran‑U.S. confrontation and the prospects for a negotiated settlement. They argue that Iran’s primary aim is to lift crippling sanctions, secure regional leverage, and...
BOE’s Greene Confirms Traders Correctly Cut Rate Hike Bets
BOE’s Greene says traders were right to trim rate hike bets https://t.co/TDPziGklgr via @irinaanghel12 @flacqua https://t.co/UsKWcSk4T7
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...
How the World Is Preparing for Oil Shortages
The Financial Times podcast warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp oil shortage, potentially cutting as much as 20% of world supply. In response, Gulf monarchies have launched a wartime‑style financing drive, raising...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
BOE Governor Bailey Says No Rush to Raise Rates
Bailey says the BOE is in no rush to raise interest rates https://t.co/sRlVcO2gnl via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/b3RMDYFimy
Hopes Grow for a Breakthrough in US-Iran Talks as Pakistan Mediates
Pakistani officials, led by Army Chief Asim Munir, delivered a fresh U.S. proposal to Tehran on 15 April, hoping for a major breakthrough in nuclear negotiations. The talks focus on narrowing the gap between a five‑year and a twenty‑year enrichment freeze...
ECB Officials Likely to Keep Rates Steady in April
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward an April rate hold https://t.co/EdJESl5bdm via @jrandow https://t.co/68cFQ4Gs2V
China Threatens Vague Retaliation on Foreign Firms Before Trump Summit
China Sharpens Retaliatory Tools Against U.S. Ahead of Trump Summit—Beijing responds to Washington’s trade pressure with broad but vague threats aimed at foreign businesses @ByChunHan @yoyominnie https://t.co/itS181EOEe https://t.co/itS181EOEe
Stephanie Pomboy: Is The Iran War Creating A Global Scramble For Hard Assets?
Stephanie Pomboy’s latest livestream argues that the Iran war is intensifying a global scramble for hard assets such as gold, energy, and commodities. She contends that soaring defense spending and heightened supply‑chain risks underscore the fragility of fiat currencies and...
India's Apple Component Exports to China Surge to Record $2.5 Billion Under ECMS Scheme
Apple’s Indian suppliers have shipped a record $2.5 billion of iPhone components to China in FY 26, a direct result of the government’s Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS). The surge follows a rapid rise from $920 million in FY 25 to $2.8 billion by January,...
US Crude Inventories Drop, First Since Iran Conflict
Today, the EIA released data on crude oil inventories held by US firms. Since the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, inventories have declined. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/sc7GCwRvTK
China's Food Security Policy Fuels Global Fertilizer Scarcity
China is prioritizing food security over producer profitability That keeps fertilizer cheap at home while exporting scarcity to global markets. China has a strategy The US hauls Bessent into a WH press conference to make false promises about $3 gas by September
Oil Prices Trade Subdued Amid Fragile Ceasefire, Peace Deal Hopes
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as Brent slipped to $94.68 and WTI to $90.96, reflecting a modest 0.26% and 0.36% decline respectively. Market sentiment was tempered by optimism over a cease‑fire expected to hold through 21 April and renewed Iran‑US...
Taiwan Emerges as Global Economic Powerhouse
Three facts worth storing in memory: -Taiwan’s stock market is now bigger than the UK’s -Taiwan is on track to be a larger source of US imports than China. -Eight of the world’s ten largest companies rely on Taiwanese (#9 & #10...
US Threats to Chinese Banks Irrelevant as Iran War Persists
US letters threatening Chinese banks supporting Iran are irrelevant Unless the war with Iran drags on. That tells you all you need to know. The war with Iran is not ending soon. That has dire consequences for the global economy #Geopolitics #Iran #China #Sanctions #OilMarkets
U.S. Toppled Iran’s Regime With British Help in 1953 — Can Trump Repeat History Sans UK Military in 2026?
The United States has activated a full‑scale naval blockade of Iran’s Gulf ports, deploying more than 15 warships to interdict vessels without authorization. While the 1953 U.S.–U.K. blockade helped precipitate a CIA‑backed coup, today’s effort lacks British military support and...