Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz discussed reviving a stalled electricity transmission project with Siemens and the purchase of used German helicopters, highlighting deeper security and power cooperation. France’s audit office warned that the country must shift from tax hikes to spending cuts to meet its 2026 deficit target, while the UK cautioned that the EU’s “Made in Europe” rule could create trade barriers. Burkina Faso experienced a surge in coordinated jihadist attacks, and Argentina’s President Javier Milei pushed a contentious labour reform amid a nationwide strike. Zimbabwe began administering the long‑acting HIV prevention drug lenacapavir, marking a pioneering public‑health rollout.
Lawrence Fuller reviews recent economic data, highlighting a strong finish to the year in housing starts and building permits, though noting a four‑year decline trend. He points out a better‑than‑expected 0.7% rise in January industrial production, driven by consumer goods...
Robinhood Markets announced that Dr. Naomi Boyd, dean of the University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business, will serve as its Chief Economic Advisor. Boyd will spearhead research on derivatives market structure, capital markets, and investment dynamics to inform product...
The episode opens with a market snapshot and escalating US‑Iran tensions before diving into earnings from DoorDash (DASH), Booking Holdings (BKNG), eBay (EBAY), Carvana (CVNA) and FIG. DoorDash reported strong 4Q25 growth in gross order value and EBITDA but missed...
The U.S. Census Bureau has postponed the Advance Economic Indicators Report, originally slated for January 28, 2026, to February 19, 2026 due to a recent lapse in federal funding. The report, which provides forward‑looking data on international trade, retail inventories,...
The U.S. Census Bureau announced USA Trade Online: Reimagined, a modernized, login‑free platform that retains core trade data while offering a streamlined interface. A processing error in Exhibit 15 was corrected and the updated FT900 PDF and XLSX were posted on...
Pernod Ricard reported a first‑half sales decline across all five priority markets, with profits pressured by foreign‑exchange volatility and higher costs. The second quarter showed a modest rebound, helped by stronger demand in India and duty‑free channels. The group reaffirmed its...
China’s recent military purges of senior PLA officers, including CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli, are framed as anti‑corruption and ideological discipline measures. While the removals may temporarily affect command cohesion, the article argues they do not...
FT: “The IMF estimated that China spends about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.” This is a start, of course, but just...
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” but a 25% duty on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities will stay in force regardless. Small furniture retailers are feeling the squeeze, with several filing for...
Russia performed its first triple LNG ship‑to‑ship (STS) transfer in Arctic waters, linking two Arctic LNG 2 cargos and one Yamal LNG cargo to conventional tankers. The operation took place in the Murmansk region, using the Saam floating storage unit for two...
Kenya has abandoned its plan to privatise the Kenya Ports Authority, converting the agency into a publicly listed company under the Government Owned Enterprises (GOE) Act. The new law forces state‑owned entities with majority government ownership to operate on commercial,...
Hello Traders 📉 Stock futures🔻Iran war risk grows, Russia complains about Cuba oil blockade 🇺🇸 USD 🔄 mixed ahead of jobless claims, Philly Fed & trade 🇪🇺 EUR 🔻 despite stronger current account 🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ supported by higher oil prices 🇬🇧 GBP 🔻 slides...
A former Ceva Logistics executive, often dubbed the "Ceva baron," is reportedly in advanced discussions with Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) to head its freight‑forwarding division. The move comes as MSC seeks to broaden its logistics portfolio and challenge rivals such...
Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% as the rupiah continued to weaken amid fiscal‑sustainability concerns and volatile investor sentiment. Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative, reflecting uncertainty over policy direction and transparency. Real‑rate differentials with the...
The Gordie Howe Bridge, a Canada‑financed toll crossing linking Detroit and Ontario, is slated to open this year as an alternative to the congested Ambassador Bridge. President Trump has threatened to block the launch unless the U.S. federal government acquires...
The episode examines how China’s historic social contract—economic prosperity and stability in exchange for political passivity—has begun to unravel, especially as the middle class faces a real‑estate crisis and young graduates confront stagnant wages. It links the ancient "Mandate of...
New York City Council is poised to adopt the Delivery Protection Act, a licensing regime that would require final‑mile delivery operators, including Amazon’s third‑party partners, to obtain city permits and directly employ warehouse workers. The legislation follows a city comptroller...
Uganda attracted $30 million in venture capital in 2025, surpassing Rwanda ($12 million) and Tanzania ($5 million). The number of Ugandan deals doubled to 22, marking a seven‑fold increase from the previous year. Local financing from Uganda Development Bank and supportive tax incentives...
FTSE Russell reports that China’s economy remained robust in 2025, achieving its 5% GDP growth target despite a deceleration in the final quarter. Industrial activity continued to be a bright spot, offsetting persistent deflationary pressures. The slowdown to 4.5% growth...
New Zealand’s agricultural exports, especially fresh fruit, rely on unique climate conditions and rapid air‑freight logistics that preserve peak quality. Vietnam’s expanding middle class and growing health consciousness are turning the market into a strategic destination for premium NZ produce...
Gary Mar argues that Canada’s $150 billion agriculture sector, responsible for $92 billion in exports and roughly one‑in‑nine jobs, is hampered by fragmented infrastructure and the absence of a coordinated national strategy. He highlights bottlenecks such as rail bridges and interprovincial trade...
RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stressed that New Zealand’s monetary policy must be anchored in forward‑looking inflation forecasts rather than current price data, given the lag between rate changes and economic impact. She reaffirmed confidence that inflation will return to the 2 percent...
Malawi has signed a memorandum of understanding with U.S. trading firm Traxys North America to market graphite from the Kasiya rutile‑graphite project, aiming to supply up to 80,000 tonnes annually to the United States’ Project Vault strategic reserve. The deal,...
The September 2025 Gen Z uprising toppled Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and installed an interim government, prompting India, China and the United States to converge on a common goal: prompt, stable elections in Nepal. All three powers fear prolonged instability could...
President John Dramani Mahama announced Ghana's goal to cease exporting raw minerals within five years, shifting toward domestic refining and processing of oil, bauxite, manganese, and lithium. He highlighted the sector's $6.6 billion export revenue in 2023 but noted limited local...
The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook finds the Chinese yuan about 16 % below its equilibrium level. The IMF’s valuation combines a trade‑weighted basket of currencies with purchasing‑power‑parity calculations, reflecting China’s sizable trade surplus and capital‑control regime. It warns...
“European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia's war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump's assertions that U.S.-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal ‘reasonably close’. The heads of five...
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
RAND’s Geopolitics of AGI initiative released a webinar on February 19, 2026, examining how advanced artificial intelligence, including potential artificial general intelligence, could reshape global politics and security. Speakers Jim Mitre and Joel Predd outlined the strategic implications of an...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST currency. The Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE SUDANESE POUND & REPLACE IT WITH THE US...
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
Limited access to water and sanitation continues to hamper Africa’s development, with one‑third of the population lacking basic drinking water and two‑thirds without proper sanitation. The African Union estimates the WASH shortfall costs the region about 4.3 % of GDP each...
Now that there is a consensus on what has caused the imbalances and why they are so damaging to China and to the global economy, we have to begin to understand just why it will be so difficult for China...
India isn’t waiting on Washington. It just signed a deal for 114 Rafale jets from France. This is more evidence that India is pivoting away from Trump’s threats from the US. https://t.co/kHtF1xgjEs
Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang warned that artificial intelligence will sharply reduce salaries across the workforce, affecting both white‑collar and service‑sector jobs. In a Substack post he cited examples from dry cleaning to coding, predicting millions of layoffs within 12‑18...
In our story today about Trump considering ditching Canada and doing trade deal with Mexico alone, we have exclusive reporting about the motivations behind the bridge debacle right at the top of the story. Gift link https://t.co/Al8Cm6RllY
The Dollar is up sharply in recent days. But this rise is only happening versus the G10 (blue). The Dollar remains near its recent lows versus EM (black) and that's what you want to watch for future Dollar direction. We're...
Russia’s deputy foreign minister and BRICS Sherpa Sergey Ryabkov publicly refuted claims that the bloc is evolving into a security or collective‑defence organization. He clarified that recent naval exercises off South Africa were conducted by individual member states, not a...
FX Market Awaits North American Leadership: The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific…...
Thursday: Equity futures lower, treasury yields edge higher by 1-2 bps and dollar steady. Jobless claims in focus today.
The war in Ukraine has dominated transatlantic policy for four years, prompting massive U.S. and European aid to Kyiv and severe sanctions on Moscow. Even if a cease‑fire is reached, the article warns that Russia will continue rearming while Europe...
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
Trump Mulls a North American Trade Pact Without Canada Exclusive reporting together with @AnaSwanson & @tylerpager on how we may be on our way to a USM and a USCA - if that. #cdnpoli #usmca https://t.co/Al8Cm6RllY via @NYTimes
The authors analyze the Bank of England’s 2012 Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) and find that central‑bank liquidity acts as a backstop that improves private wholesale funding conditions rather than merely substituting for them. By lowering banks’ wholesale funding costs,...
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?
From the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects: Indian merchandise exports rose despite higher US tariffs. MODI’S ON A ROLL. https://t.co/yxKowcoHyv
Kumba Iron Ore says it will wrap up contract negotiations with Chinese steelmakers this year, despite the ongoing dispute between China Minerals Resources Group and major miners. China now represents 56% of Kumba’s 2025 export sales, up from 54% in...
🚨BITCOIN IS CLOSING IN ON IT’S LONGEST LOSING STREAK SINCE 2022 Bitcoin is approaching its longest losing streak in years as geopolitical tensions rise and shake up risk assets. Rising crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar are adding extra...
Not much News again. All these Takeovers and changes of Listing Venue have really hollowed out the UK market.
