Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
RBI Asks State Oil Refiners to Curb Spot Dollar Buying, Sources Say
The Reserve Bank of India has asked state‑run oil refiners—Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp—to curb spot‑dollar purchases and instead draw on a special credit line administered by the State Bank of India. The move revives crisis‑era tools used during the Ukraine war to reduce dollar demand from refiners, who buy large amounts of foreign currency to pay for oil imports. The rupee, which had slipped to a record low above 95 per dollar, has since recovered about 2% to around 93.20 per dollar. RBI’s broader FX actions include selling dollars from reserves and restricting certain forward contracts.
Iran War Prompts Shift to Fob Steel Export Offers
Steel exporters in Asia, Turkey and India are moving from cost‑and‑freight (CFR) to free‑on‑board (FOB) contracts as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran drives up ocean freight and disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Higher freight rates—up to $80 per tonne to...
The Road That Runs Through Tehran: Pepe Escobar on the Corridor Reshaping the World
In this episode of Think Bricks, journalist Pepe Escobar discusses his documentary "Golden Corridor," which reveals the emerging North‑South transport corridor linking Russia, Iran, and India—a multimodal network of rail, road, and sea routes that integrates Eurasia and complements China’s...
Could Bulgaria Replace Hungary as Putin’s Proxy Inside the EU?
Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat ends Hungary’s outspoken pro‑Russian stance in the EU, raising hopes in Kyiv for stronger Western backing. Bulgaria’s parliamentary vote on April 19 could elevate former president Rumen Radev, a known Kremlin sympathizer, to a governing role. If Radev’s...
Judith Suminwa Leads Strategic Talks at World Bank–IMF Spring Meetings
DR Congo Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka attended the World Bank‑IMF Spring Meetings in Washington from April 13‑18, 2026. She held high‑level talks on the country’s macroeconomic outlook and the upcoming third IMF program review, which could unlock additional budget support....
#166 - Freddie New - How Governments Destroy Money and Empires (The Lessons From Rome)
In this episode Freddie New examines how currency debasement contributed to the fall of the Roman Empire and draws parallels to modern monetary policy, especially the erosion of the British pound and U.S. dollar through extensive money printing. He explains...
U.S. Defense Spending Set to Surge Beyond $
$2t → $2.7t in 6 years. and that's before the iran war, before europe's (and asia's) defense spending push, before the $90b ukraine loan. the chart from 2026 is going to look even steeper.
Australia Will Run an Overt Command Economy by 2040
Australia’s economy is edging toward an overt command economy by the 2040s, after crossing a fiscal “point of no return” in 2013 when the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and other welfare programs began expanding without caps. Government‑funded services now...
Gulf War III, Markets Sanguine, Why?
Markets rallied sharply after a cease‑fire was announced in the Iran‑Gulf conflict, erasing the S&P’s earlier war‑related losses and bringing risk assets back to near‑pre‑war levels. Oil prices remain about 50% above pre‑crisis levels, and the Strait of Hormuz...
Oil Shock Less Severe; Iran Likely to Restore Flow
Of course the world cannot withstand a 20% supply shock of oil for quarters There are just two weird assumptions included in that: 1) The supply shock is not 20% effectively - far from it actually. The bypassing of the strait...
Bessent Urges World Bank to Shift Funding Towards Critical Minerals
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used the IMF and World Bank spring meetings to press the development banks to shift their green‑lending focus toward critical‑minerals mining and processing projects. He argued that secure supplies of rare earths and other key...
What’s Happening in 10 Gulf Countries Right Now?
The blog notes that the Strait of Hormuz remains physically open but its navigation system is impaired, challenging the simplistic "open vs. closed" narrative. In the UAE, ports such as Fujairah and Khor Fakkan continue normal operations, yet GPS spoofing introduces...
US Will Tap Tariff Funds to Calm Fertilizer Crisis: Rollins
The Trump administration plans to tap tens of billions of tariff revenue to shore up U.S. fertilizer supplies, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced during a House appropriations hearing. A 90‑minute meeting with top fertilizer producers, Commerce and trade officials explored...
War-Torn Global Economy Needs IMF Emergency Assistance
A war‑driven energy shock is straining the global economy, with developing nations hit hardest. The authors urge the International Monetary Fund to issue emergency Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to provide immediate liquidity. They warn that without swift SDR allocation, debt‑service...
How China’s Arctic Ambitions Inflate Russia’s Geopolitical Leverage
Russia’s Northern Sea Route is framed by law as a historic national artery, not an open international corridor. While China promotes the route as a "Polar Silk Road" and anticipates commercial growth, Russian statutes require prior authorization, routing, and reporting,...
SWIFT: Belgium’s Banking Network as Economic Weapon
The most powerful weapon in America's arsenal isn't a nuke. It's not even in the military. It's a banking cooperative in Belgium that can destroy entire economies in days. In 2022, they used it on Russia, and the results were devastating. Here's the untold...
Rising Costs, Uneven Demand Crimping US Clothing Imports
US apparel and footwear imports dropped 7.2% year‑over‑year in the first two months of 2026, following a 2.4% decline in 2025. Rising production costs, higher freight rates, and uneven consumer demand tied to a K‑shaped recovery are pressuring retailers. Inventory...
Fletcher Building Hikes Prices up to 36% as Iran War Spikes Material and Fuel Costs
Fletcher Building, New Zealand’s largest construction‑materials supplier, announced price increases of up to 36% on items such as plastic piping, citing rising diesel, resin and urea costs tied to the Iran war. The hikes come as the firm warns that...
UK Economic Output Jumps Ahead of Mideast War
Britain’s economy posted a surprise 0.5% GDP gain in February, far outpacing the 0.1% consensus forecast. The jump follows a modest 0.1% rise in January and comes just before the Middle‑East conflict is expected to pressure energy costs. Meanwhile, the...
Daybreak April 16: Trump Suggests UK Deal Could Be Reopened
President Donald Trump told Sky News the United States could revisit the terms of its recently‑signed trade deal with the United Kingdom. The agreement, which granted U.S. beef and ethanol producers expanded market access while imposing a 10% tariff on...
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
Luke Gromen, a veteran macro researcher, hosts MacroVoices #528 discussing how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a geopolitical shock comparable to the 1956 Suez Crisis. He draws parallels between the strategic chokepoint’s role in oil supply...
Ajay Banga on the Global Economic Outlook Amid War with Iran
World Bank President Ajay Banga warned that the ongoing war with Iran will push global inflation up by roughly 0.9 percentage points and trim real GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points. He linked the inflationary pressure to higher energy prices and...
SGD Firm Up as MAS Tightens Policy Amid Iran‑War Volatility
The Monetary Authority of Singapore raised its policy stance on April 14, the first hike since 2022, driving the Singapore dollar to about $0.79 USD and supporting local equities. The move, aimed at countering soaring oil and gas prices from the...
Colombia Readies $4 Billion Bond Buyback, Buys Dollars to Support Peso
The Colombian government is purchasing U.S. dollars this week as it gears up for a $4 billion external‑debt buyback. The dollar purchases have pulled the peso away from a five‑year high and sparked a rally in Colombian sovereign bonds.
Positioning Between Relief and Risk
A two‑week conditional cease‑fire between the United States and Iran has lifted the immediate tail‑risk of the Middle East conflict, causing global equities to rally and oil prices to retreat. First Metro Securities frames the situation as a macro‑transmission story...
Placer.ai Macroeconomic Indicators Analysis, March 2026 – Placer.ai Blog
Placer.ai’s March 2026 macro‑economic indicators show retail foot traffic holding steady overall, while e‑commerce distribution‑center visits surged 16.2% year‑over‑year and manufacturing facility visits edged up 0.7%. The flat retail numbers stem largely from a calendar shift—fewer Saturdays—rather than a demand dip....
Putin Seeks Plan to Revive Russia’s Slowing War Economy
Russia’s economy, which rebounded after a 1.4% contraction in 2022, slowed to just 1% growth in 2024, with a 1.8% GDP decline in the first two months of 2025. President Vladimir Putin chastised top officials for the slowdown and demanded...
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
Treasury Targets Iranian Elites with Aggressive Economic Fury
“Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury by targeting regime elites like the Shamkhani family that attempt to profit at the expense of the Iranian people,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Not sure this will make a big difference...
POLA, POLB Close Out Q1 on Strong Footing as Tariffs and Global Tensions Cloud Outlook
The Port of Los Angeles (POLA) handled 752,250 TEU in March, a 3% year‑over‑year decline, while its first‑quarter total of 2.39 million TEU was flat with the five‑year average. The Port of Long Beach (POLB) saw a larger 5.2% drop to...
Malaysia Q1 GDP Expected Around 5.5% YoY, Outpacing Forecast
GDP Msia 1Q 2026 (advanced) akan di umum Oleg DOSM Jumaat 17/4. Expectation: Expect ~5.5% YoY (4Q25: 6.3%). BNM forecast is 4.0-5.0% full 2026. 1Q GDP (YoY) minggu ini: •China. 5.0% above forecast 4.8%, stronger vs 4.5% in 4Q25. •Spore. 4.6% below forecast...
Supply Disruptions and Energy Security
War in Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 8% of global oil flow, the largest disruption since the 1970s. In the first month of the conflict, West Texas Intermediate rose roughly 50%, a muted response compared...
Traders Revive Short-Volatility Bets as Peace Hopes Calm Markets
Traders are reviving short‑volatility and carry strategies as optimism over a US‑Iran cease‑fire eases market volatility. Bond, currency and equity volatility indices have fallen daily since late March, with US 10‑year yields steady at 4.28% and Treasury futures volume at...
How to Future-Proof the Global Economy
Mohamed A. El‑Erian warns that backlash against globalization, the waning Washington Consensus, and rapid AI adoption are creating a new era of structural volatility. He argues that frequent, severe shocks will depress growth, stoke inflation, and widen inequality unless policymakers discard...
What a Time to Be a Central Bank
In this brief Marketplace segment, chief economist Diane Swank of KPMG breaks down the Federal Reserve’s looming decision on interest rates, highlighting how the war in Iran and lingering supply‑chain disruptions are pushing policymakers toward higher rates despite a surprisingly...
Beyond the Rupture: Where Are China-Japan Relations Heading?
Since November 2025, Sino‑Japanese relations have plunged to a decade low after Japan’s new prime minister Takaichi Sanae’s Taiwan remarks, prompting China to impose travel bans, seafood import bans, and heightened military activity. The crisis deepened with a knife‑wielding Self‑Defense Forces...
Limited Chip Exports Preserve US Edge, Fuel China’s Future AI
Jensen's arguments against chip export controls didn't make a ton of sense to me, but here's a steelman: selling a limited quantity of n-1 generation chips to China could undercut their domestic industry, while retaining a 10x American compute advantage. Totally...
Jensen’s Pods Evade China Scrutiny Post‑export Controls
all the pods Jensen did since export controls started where no-one asked hard questions on China https://t.co/y0Q7rws6QT
Bessent Says USA Won't Renew Iranian, Russian Oil Waivers
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the United States will not renew the general licenses that temporarily allowed the sale of Russian and Iranian crude. The waivers expired this weekend, leaving the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly 20%...
Trump Predicts Weekend US‑Iran Meeting, Hopeful for Deal
🚨 Trump says the US's next meeting with Iran may take place over the weekend. That it's "looking very good" that we're going to make a deal with Iran. -pump it.
War’s Economic Damage Endures Long After Conflict Ends
A lotta economic damage from this war will persist long after it ends. Lemme youtube-splain: https://t.co/9XY4jpVVZR
USA Resumes Sanctions on Russian and Iranian Oil
The U.S. Treasury announced it will not renew the temporary waivers that exempted Russian and Iranian crude oil from sanctions, ending the relief on April 11 for Russia and April 19 for Iran. The waivers, introduced during the Trump era to ease...
Reserve-Backed Stablecoins Win by Funneling Foreign Capital Into US Treasuries
.@nadertheory realized that reserve-backed stablecoins were going to win was because they were "geopolitically aligned" because they funneled foreign money into US Treasuries. 🎯 https://t.co/C8q3RCD95I
US Threatens Chinese Banks, Tightening Iran Oil Blockade
The US yesterday warned 2 Chinese banks they're at risk of secondary sanctions if they help buyers of Iran's oil. This is a very big deal. Iran has a bunch of fully-laden oil tankers already outside the SoH. This shuts...
Australia’s New National Defense Strategy Feels Written for a Bygone Era
Australia’s 2026 National Defense Strategy outlines an additional AU$53 bn (≈US$35 bn) defense budget over the next decade, aiming to lift spending to 3% of GDP. While the document largely reiterates progress from the 2024 strategy, it introduces a medium‑range surface‑to‑air missile...
Inside the Gulf Crisis Response After Massive Oil Release
This week on @CleaningUpPod, we go behind the scenes with the man coordinating the response to the Gulf crisis. I travelled to Paris to meet @fbirol, Exec Director of @IEA, just a week after the release of 400m barrels of...
USTR’s Section 301 Probe Flawed Economically, Factually, Legally
We submitted comments on the new US Section 301 investigation of "structural excess capacity," explaining the herculean task USTR has assigned itself - and why its indicated approach would be economically, factually, and legally invalid: https://t.co/55Q4AADU12 https://t.co/INfD60QkjP
China’s Crude Stockpiling Proved Prudent, Says Column
Last year, the oil market was preoccupied with a question: why China was stockpiling so much crude. I wrote an @Opinion column about it in Sept, and re-reading it ⤵️ now, I must admit that all makes sense: Beijing was...
Initial Jobless Claims Remain Unusually Low Recently
Interesting chart. Just going based on the last few years, initial jobless claims are unusually subdued https://t.co/3oUeLlzLaW
ECB Likely to Hold, Eyes June Hike Amid Oil‑energy Turmoil
The April decision by the ECB is definitely hostage to the fortunes of oil/energy and conditions on the ground in the ME, but the path of least resistance is for a hold. Will suit cautious policymakers and hawks will feel...