Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The New Zealand and Australian dollars slipped in Asian trade after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled that inflation is already back within its 2% target band and is expected to stay there for the next year. Governor Adrian Breman emphasized that policy will remain data‑dependent, rejecting any preset tightening trajectory. Chief Economist Paul Conway added the bank will not be “trigger‑happy” with rate hikes, reinforcing a cautious tone. The dovish nuance weighed on the Kiwi and, by correlation, the Aussie dollar.
Iran warned the United Nations that any military aggression against it would be met with decisive force, stating that bases, facilities and assets of the perceived hostile force would be considered legitimate targets. The warning was delivered in a letter...
Hermès reported record revenue of over €16 billion in 2025, a 9 % increase at constant exchange rates, and recurring operating income of €6.6 billion, lifting margins to 41 % of sales. Growth was driven by its leather‑goods division, which expanded 13.1 % and remains...
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the U.S. dollar’s recent rally, sparked by stronger‑than‑expected durable‑goods, housing and industrial production data and hawkish Fed minutes, is unlikely to be sustained. While the minutes hinted at a cautious stance on further rate cuts, Halpenny...
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
Shares of Indian upstream explorers jumped as Brent crude breached $71 per barrel amid renewed US‑Iran tensions and temporary Strait of Hormuz closures. Oil India rose 5.2% and ONGC gained 3.6%, while downstream marketers HPCL and BPCL slipped nearly 5%...
The IMF warned that Venezuela’s economy and humanitarian situation remain “quite fragile,” citing triple‑digit inflation, a sharply depreciating currency and public debt at roughly 180 percent of GDP. The country has seen massive emigration, with about 8 million people leaving since 2014,...
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
Japan’s consumer price index slowed sharply in January, with headline inflation dropping to 1.5% year‑over‑year, the lowest level since March 2022 and below expectations. Core inflation excluding fresh food eased to 2.0% YoY, while the core‑core measure fell to 2.6%,...
Macro: HSBC trims ~10% of US DCM in broader $1.8bn cost overhaul and pivot to Asia/Middle East. Key factors: management cuts, M&A/ECM pullback. Risk: execution/credit cycles. Trade: favor Asian bank equities. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
Sudan, despite a civil war that began in 2023, is courting foreign investors to develop its largely untapped mineral portfolio that includes gold, copper, uranium and rare‑earth elements. Gold production set a new record of 70 tonnes in 2025, generating...
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
Pres. Trump promised his steep tariffs would narrow the trade deficit and spark a manufacturing revival. New federal data show the U.S. trade deficit widened to –$70.3B in December 2025. So much for Trump's trade spin. https://t.co/NIGIRs4sQt
U.S. LNG exports are set to climb from 15 Bcf/d last year to 18.1 Bcf/d by 2027, driving record natural‑gas production. The surge in feed‑gas demand and AI‑powered data‑center growth is tightening domestic supply, pushing residential and wholesale electricity prices higher. While...
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The latest Bespoke Institutional "Closer" highlights a shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric, suggesting a softer stance on monetary policy. It also points to a widening disconnect between market breadth and price performance, while flagging renewed stress in the repo market....
This is a pretty cool chart to show your investment committee. A classic stock price-to-corporate profits image that reveals extended conditions reminiscent of the turn of the century. If this chart has any prescience, we should remember that the leaders...
Tongaat Hulett, South Africa's leading sugar producer, is heading for provisional liquidation after its business rescue plan collapsed. The Vision Group's acquisition of lender claims and a debt‑to‑equity swap failed, leaving the rescue unimplementable. Cosatu warns the collapse will trigger...
The Trump administration announced that SoftBank’s U.S. affiliate SB Energy will develop a proposed 9.2‑GW, $33 billion natural‑gas power complex near Portsmouth, Ohio. The project is the flagship of a $36 billion first tranche of a $550 billion U.S.–Japan strategic investment framework that...
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
UK heavy goods vehicle registrations fell 10% in 2025, with 40,504 new trucks added, marking a contraction across every quarter. The decline was most pronounced in box vans (-28.1%) and curtain‑sided trucks (-26.2%), while tractor units slipped 4.4% but rebounded...
The Franklin International Dividend Booster ETF (XIDV) posted an 8.95% year‑to‑date return, slightly outpacing the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) at 8.75%. XIDV follows VettaFi’s rules‑based dividend‑optimization index, targeting yields two to three times its parent benchmark without using...
The global LGBTQ travel market, now worth hundreds of billions and projected to exceed $500 billion by 2032, is rapidly rebalancing away from the United States. New data from the Spartacus Gay Travel Index shows the U.S. slipping to 48th place,...
The Federal Reserve Board announced a hybrid public outreach meeting for Thursday, March 26, 2026, as part of its ten‑year review mandated by the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act (EGRPRA). The session will allow stakeholders to comment on a...
George Friedman argues that the United States should not be blamed for Europe’s security dilemma, emphasizing that both sides feel betrayed. He notes that Europe, a patchwork of nearly 50 nations, has the economic capacity to defend itself but lacks...
The China story in the TIC data isn't the slide in China's long-term holdings in US custodians -- it is the rise in China's bills and short-term deposits in December. That hints that some of the December surge in...
The House Republican‑led E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council has revised its biofuel exemption plan, raising the annual cap from 450 million to 550 million Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits. The proposal also authorizes year‑round sales of 15% ethanol gasoline (E15) and expands...
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
The episode dissects the 62nd Munich Security Conference, highlighting Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, lingering reliance on the U.S., and a shared sense that the post‑World War II liberal order is eroding. Guests note France’s view that autonomy is a strategic...
Fed independence was a 20th century virtue. Fed inter-dependence is a 21st century necessity. The question was never whether the Fed and Treasury coordinate-it's whether that coordination happens in the dark or in the light The American people deserve monetary transparency...
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
Emerging‑market equities have outpaced U.S. and European stocks in 2026, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF up more than 11% year‑to‑date and 37% over the past twelve months. Wealth‑management firms are responding by raising EM exposure to roughly 10‑12%...
Good piece "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests" Great chart China is a much bigger net exporter (of cars) now than Germany...
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Stalls Near 2023 High – Four-Week Streak at Risk https://t.co/srtBKcRq3k $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/oGQK6Jc1uV
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) argues that the U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs are unjustified, noting Canada is not a dumping ground or transshipment hub. Since the tariffs took effect, Canada has lost roughly 2 million metric tons of steel...
According to a report from the International Energy Agency, an average AI datacenter consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households. AI = HIGHER ELECTRICITY PRICES = AN AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM. https://t.co/65QNfr2y4U
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
Tariffs paid by midsize US companies tripled last year, a JPMorganChase Institute study shows. Pass the cost on. Layoff employees. And/or take profit hit. Cash squeeze to pay duties and invoices. https://t.co/iPsMW2h5iP
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...
Another great discussion with @MrMBrown where we look at more record highs for the FTSE100, against a backdrop of decent earnings, and the prospect of a March rate cut from the BOE https://t.co/1QJd0kOMS5 via @PepperstoneFX @GoodMoneyGuide
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
