Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
India has postponed its scheduled trade delegation visit to Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump. The court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the tariffs, prompting Trump to replace them with a 15% surcharge under the Trade Act of 1974. With the new 15% global tariff now in place, India’s negotiating team is reassessing its position on the pending India‑U.S. trade pact, which previously called for an 18% reciprocal rate. Exporters see relief but remain wary of future duties under other statutes.
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
A dispute has emerged between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Belgium, and U.S. firm KoBold Metals over access to colonial-era geological archives housed at Belgium’s AfricaMuseum. The DRC wants to partner with KoBold to digitize data on cobalt, lithium and...
The Creature from Jekyll Island is a must read book. It helps you understand the creation of the federal reserve banking system in the states. The truth is that, The U.S. central banking system was conceived in private by a...
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used a New Delhi press conference to signal Brazil’s preference for a balanced, non‑confrontational relationship with the United States. By urging the Trump administration to treat all nations equally, he framed the upcoming Washington talks as a platform...
The Dollar used to rally on strong data, but that's no longer true. Recent examples are strong payrolls on Feb 11 or hot core PCE inflation on Feb 20. We're in the early stages of a regime change for USD,...
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
The UN Economic Commission for Africa warned that Africa’s massive youth cohort can become a global growth engine if investment is better linked to bankable projects. While capital exists, investors demand scale, security and market access, which the continent must...
The European Union and India have reached a landmark free‑trade agreement that will slash tariffs on the vast majority of bilateral trade, covering 96.6% of EU exports to India and 99.5% of Indian exports to the EU. Austrian State Secretary...
Overhaul’s 2025 Annual Cargo Theft Report shows that 82% of cargo theft incidents targeting Mexican truckers involved violence, with armed interceptions and driver assaults commonplace. While the central region remains the hotspot, the West’s share of thefts rose 7% in...
Cuba has been cut off from oil, and solar power is saving Cuba. The irony here is the U.S. is making Cuba actually energy independent, which is likely the opposite desired effect Trump is seeking to have.
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to replace them with a blanket 15% tariff under Section 122. This shift lowers the average U.S. tariff rate to about...
The oil glut narrative is dying or dead A market rallying 18% YTD isn’t drowning in supply. Yes, barrels exist on paper But sanctions, disruptions, inventories & geopolitics mean they’re not available where prices are set. These views are from the @BloombergNRG article. I agree...
Indonesia must orchestrate a record‑size share sale to lift the free‑float of 267 listed firms to at least 15%, up from the current 7.5% floor. The Indonesia Stock Exchange estimates the required issuance will total about 187 trillion rupiah (approximately S$14 billion),...
SafariCo Group is allocating $72 million to expand and refurbish its Tanzanian lodges, backed by a $50 million International Finance Corporation loan. The plan adds 184 rooms, pushing the portfolio beyond 1,000 keys across the Elewana, Explorer and Sopa brands. Tanzania’s tourism...
Weekly Market Analysis , Macro Update & Trade ideas on Gold , US indexes & Bitcoin https://youtu.be/HNcStxTfQSg?si=D3pxln2A4J1VbDYV
🔴 IRAN WAR RISK IS ESCALATING FAST Military buildup. Failing diplomacy. Rising oil volatility. Subscribers have been tracking the escalation path and the market consequences before the headlines. Know what comes next. ⚠️Subscribe now on website⚠️ #Iran #Geopolitics #WarRisk #Oil #GlobalRisk
SAB’s annual report warns that Russia now frames relations with the West as an existential conflict, deploying a systematic hybrid toolkit that blends military, informational, cyber, legal and economic levers. The Kremlin’s distorted threat perception fuels a perception spiral, making...
The last truly independent central bank Governor in Turkey was fired in March 2021. That sent the Lira into a devaluation spiral from which it's never recovered. It doesn't matter who the economic team is now. If Erdogan did this...
Live from 10:30 ET: I’ll be speaking with Margaret Brennan on @FaceTheNation @CBSNews. We’ll discuss the economic outlook and other topics. If you are in the US, follow the interview https://t.co/6JMj9WbdTi https://t.co/1uPSzrclkX
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act cannot be used to impose sweeping global tariffs, forcing the Trump administration to abandon the IEEPA‑based duties on India. Hours later, President Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade...
What comes after the Supreme Court’s striking down Trump’s tariffs and his using Section 122 surcharges expire after 150 days? And the trade deals with tariffs that exceed 15%? It is all curiouser and curiouser for supply chains. And logistics?
Global trade trap. US tantrums. China bravado. How should your supply chain and its logistics change to adapt to a new trade?
At the Africa Business Forum 2026 in Addis Ababa, leaders launched the Jobs Wall Commitment Tracker to record public and private sector job promises. The gathering emphasized that Africa’s youthful demographic demands risk‑tolerant, long‑term capital focused on research, innovation, and...
Teheran now believes it's marked for death, writes @ctindale Once survival replaces strategy, restraint evaporates & chaos becomes leverage Anyone who thinks this isn’t about oil—specifically balancing China’s grip on metals—simply isn’t paying attention #Geopolitics #Iran #Deterrence #EnergySecurity #PowerPolitics #Risk #MiddleEast #StrategicStability
Forget the Western propaganda about the economies of Russia and Ukraine. Contrary to Western media, Russia is not about ready to collapse. It's Ukraine that is in trouble. Don't forget Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the press is either wrong...
ICRA projects India’s year‑on‑year GDP growth to ease to 7.2% in Q3 FY 2025‑26, down from 8.2% in the prior quarter. The slowdown is driven by weaker services (+7.8% versus +9.2%) and agriculture (+3.0% versus +3.5%) growth, even as industrial output...
Here's almost everything I know about tariffs in light of yesterday's Supreme Court ruling. Watch til the end to learn how to get your company's refund from the government. https://t.co/GFmQbceVox
War with Iran & energy dominance are unrelated IMO @AsimRiaz1978 Trump knows an Iran strike risks an oil spike & voter blowback at the pump. That's why I think the buildup & a strike are coercive leverage, not a plan...
President Donald Trump announced a new 15% tariff on imports, raising the rate from the 10% he mentioned a day earlier. The increase follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier reciprocal and fentanyl‑related tariffs. Trump said the tariffs...
Thursday, Indonesia’s Pres. Prabowo signed a one-sided US-Indonesia trade deal. Indonesia was slammed with a 19% tariff, while nearly all IDN tariffs on the US were eliminated. In contrast, P.M. Modi has wisely not signed a U.S.–India deal. INDIA LEAVES INDONESIA IN...
The U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 20 ruled 6‑3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize President Trump’s tariff program, nullifying roughly $133.5 billion in collected duties and raising the total overhang to about $175‑$179 billion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent...
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on Trump’s tariffs: “Trump is charging taxes on Americans. [Yet] he fantasizes that [he's charging taxes on] other countries… and he somehow believes this is helping the US economy.” https://t.co/iWEXdB8QFT
Polymarket’s prediction market shows a noticeable rise in the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran, signaling heightened geopolitical risk. At the same time, gold remains unusually flat, showing little enthusiasm despite the tension, while oil prices are edging higher....
Colombia’s proven natural‑gas reserves have slumped to just over two trillion cubic feet, giving the country less than six years of production life. President Gustavo Petro’s policies—halting new exploration contracts and raising extractive taxes—have sharply curbed foreign investment and accelerated...
New tariffs levied - twice in less than 24 hours. Now Section 122 used to levy 15% across the board instead of 10%. That gets the effective tariff rate closer to what it was before the ruling by the Supreme...
In this episode, the host reviews President Donald Trump's reaction to the Supreme Court's ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not permit tariff impositions. Trump lambasts the justices he deems disloyal, praises Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh...
In this 17‑minute episode, South America analyst Mario Braga explains RANE’s geopolitical analysis methodology, illustrating it with the shifting U.S.–Venezuela relationship. He details how analysts monitor political, economic, and security indicators, assess scenario probabilities, and translate findings into actionable intelligence...
The Iranian rial has collapsed in 2026, spurring hyperinflation and prompting middle‑class savers to flee the banking system. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted billions of dollars, echoing Lebanon’s 2019‑2021 crisis where crypto became a financial lifeline. On‑chain data shows...
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the Supreme Court finally crushing Trump’s tariffs: “The powers to impose duties are congressional, not presidential... Today the Supreme Court stood up... and said the President of the US must abide by the law.” https://t.co/Dg8fWzEyAP
The episode examines recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets, noting that high‑frequency data shows a steady $10 billion per week inflow, while UNCTAD’s lagging figures report a 2% decline to $875 billion last year. It explores how short‑term...
US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside of recessions in the past two decades. US TARIFFS = TANK TIME. https://t.co/ONURMpns4b
Politics aside, Venezuela has been an enormous geopolitical victory for the US that is probably understated and not well understood by most.
A tariff “refund” mostly goes to whoever wrote the tariff check: the importer of record. That’s not the same person who paid more at the register. So refunds -- if they're offered -- might sound like consumer relief, but in...
One of my most important messages about high skilled immigration is that you have to do the policy right. And to do that, you have to accurately understand the economics of high skilled immigration and the practical realities and mechanism...
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
Under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran ordered 110 Boeing jets — 80 for Iran Air (77W, 777-9, 737 MAX) & 30 737 MAX for Aseman signed in 2016–17…deal value $20 billion at list prices After Trump admin withdrew Iran deal...
As Russia and Japan arm wrestle over the Kuril Islands, Russia’s economy outpaces Japan. https://t.co/Y7wv29WjpH
