Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
This Means (Economic) War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that if diplomatic talks with Iran collapse, the administration will launch an intensified economic campaign, leveraging sanctions as a “financial bombing” strategy. The move comes as the International Energy Agency warns Europe faces a six‑week jet‑fuel shortage and global energy prices surge, fueling inflation and higher foreclosure rates. Despite the macroheadwinds, major U.S. banks posted double‑digit earnings gains and the stock market hit fresh highs. Simultaneously, fintech firm Unit21 and the IMF are urging banks to share anonymized fraud data to combat a $4 trillion financial‑crime ecosystem.
Google and IDB Launch $0 Funding Partnership to Fast‑Track AI in Latin America
Google and the Inter‑American Development Bank (IDB) unveiled a public‑private partnership to accelerate AI adoption across Latin America, showcasing a pilot that reduced Mexico's audit cycle from ten months to minutes and projecting a 3.6%‑6% uplift in regional economic output.
Mutual Export Controls Harm US, China—Time for Careful Rollback
As I have noted in several posts over the past year, there is a growing recognition that both the US and China have pushed export controls to levels that are damaging to each other’s economies. A Deal Waiting to Be...
Is Hormuz Strait Open? A Short Comment for Traders and Investors
Traders are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz after recent satellite data confirmed that the main shipping lane remains fully operational. Kpler’s April 17 2026 analysis shows no significant vessel congestion or closures, despite regional geopolitical tensions. The report highlights that oil...
The Strait of Hormuz to Reopen, Says Iran
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman – is officially reopened for the remainder of the cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon. The...
Report: Circularity Could Unlock €25.4trn for the Global Economy
The Circle Economy think‑tank, together with Deloitte Netherlands, released its 2026 Circularity Gap Report, estimating that roughly one‑third of global economic output—about $27.7 trillion each year—is lost to linear, wasteful practices. The report shifts focus from environmental metrics to the economic...
VIX Drop Misreads Ceasefire; Risk Still Lingers
US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension. The VIX has fallen from 29.3 to 17.94 since March 30 — markets are pricing this as full resolution. A pause is not a peace deal. A two-week truce is not a...
Fed's Daly: Businesses Cautiously Optimistic
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Daly says businesses remain cautiously optimistic despite a looming labor‑force slowdown. She predicts zero net job growth could become the new steady state, with productivity gains from AI and technology offsetting demographic headwinds. Daly warns that...
China Suspends Import Licences of 3 Indian Rice Export Firms
China has cancelled the import licences of three Indian rice exporters—NM FoodImpex, Shriram Food Industry and Sponge Enterprises—after earlier rejections citing traces of genetically modified organisms. The suspension, effective April 17, follows a month‑long dispute over non‑Basmati rice shipments and may...
Iran War Energy Shock Drives Nuclear Power Plans in Hard-Hit Asia and Africa
The Iran war’s energy shock is driving Asian and African nations to boost nuclear power output and accelerate new reactor projects. South Korea is increasing generation, Taiwan is considering restarting mothballed plants, and Japan has signed a $40 billion reactor deal...
Half of Global Markets Rebound Amid Iran Conflict
"Looking across 46 different country ETFs since the start of the Iran war, the global picture looks far more resilient than headlines and the chattering media's pundits would suggest. Nearly half of the world's major markets -- 20 out of...
Europe Moves From Rhetoric to Planning as Paris Summit Weighs Hormuz Security Mission
European leaders gathered in Paris, chaired by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, to move from rhetoric to concrete planning for a multinational mission securing commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 40 countries, including Germany and Italy, discussed a...
Market Volatility Driven by War Perception and Headlines
Perception is reality in the markets, and that perception is being driven by headlines. Those headlines suggest today that the war is near its end, but we're not there yet, and there will likely be occasional headlines to the contrary....
Jet Prices Dip Slightly on Hopes Hormuz Traffic Will Resume Soon
Jet fuel prices slipped modestly as optimism grew that a U.S.-Iran cease‑fire could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. European jet‑fuel benchmarks have fallen about 16% from their recent peak but remain roughly 90% above pre‑war levels....
Markets Rally as Hormuz Reopens, Oil Prices Plunge
Stocks surged Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, easing supply fears and sending oil prices sharply lower. The Dow jumped more than 700 points while major indexes hit...
US‑Iran Deal Nears: Stockpile Trade, 5‑Year
the outlines of a us-iran deal are taking shape/getting closer. the us wants iran's enriched uranium stockpile and a 20-year moratorium on enrichment. iran is offering stockpile plus 5 years, wants $20 billion in frozen funds released plus sanctions relief.
Virtus Minerals Signs First Major Deal Under US-DRC Critical Minerals Partnership
Virtus Minerals, a U.S. firm with just eight staff, has completed its first major transaction under the U.S.–DRC critical‑minerals pact by acquiring Chemaf and its copper‑cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The purchase includes the Mutoshi mine, which...
Israel’s Accelerating De Facto Annexation of the West Bank Has Dangerous Implications
Israel’s right‑wing coalition has accelerated de facto annexation of the West Bank through a surge in settlement approvals, land‑registration processes, and expanded civil governance. Since the 2022 government took power, 54 new settlements were approved in 2025, and the controversial E1...
U.S. Imports More Crude yet Remains Net Petroleum Exporter
GUIDE: U.S. crude oil and petroleum product trade balances. The United States is BOTH a major importer and exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. These trade patterns allow the U.S. system to balance. But the devil, as always, is in...
Hormuz Transit Open Only in Name—Avoid and Delay Voyages
Tanker shipping association INTERTANKO : Hormuz “open” in name only. Ceasefire holding, but transits remain under Iranian control + U.S. blockade in force. Key guidance: delay voyages, avoid the area if possible—and do not pay transit fees to Iran amid risk...
Japan’s Constitutional Theater: Revising Article 9 Would Be a Mistake
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, buoyed by a record 316‑seat lower‑house majority, is pushing to rewrite Article 9, the post‑war pacifist clause. The party argues the constitution no longer reflects reality, as the Self‑Defense Forces already operate as a modern military...
Strait of Hormuz Appears ‘Open’ Yet Something’s
Check in on the "open" Strait of Hormuz. Something's missing but I can't put my finger on it https://t.co/Pr2PQBKlFe
Trump Claims Iran Won’t Close Hormuz; Iran Threatens Closure
Love these competing blockade headlines: Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. An Iranian official told Fars that if the U.S. naval blockade persists, Tehran will consider it a violation of the ceasefire and will close...
Pre-Markets Very Happy About Middle East Developments
A cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices down about 8% and lifting pre‑market futures sharply—+540 points on the Dow, +54 on the S&P 500, +230 on the Nasdaq, and +36 on the Russell 2000....
War Slashes Growth in Middle East, Low‑Income Nations
The impact of the war on the global economy as measured by revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook: a very significant hit to the Middle East itself and Low-income Developing Economics. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in...
BOE's Pill Signals Potential Rate Hikes to Combat Inflation
BOE’s Pill suggests rates may need to rise to tackle inflation https://t.co/iAYJOdrBkv via @tomelleryrees @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/Rk8oDw3DMD
The Market’s Iran-Driven Correction Has Likely Run Its Course. This Is What Advisors Need to Know
After weeks of volatility sparked by the Iran‑U.S. conflict, U.S. equity markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs. The VIX fell, indicating reduced fear, and analysts say the Iran‑driven correction has likely run its course. Lower...
Unclear US Blockade Complicates Iran's Hormuz Ceasefire Limits
So, are we just back to Iran's 10-15 Hormuz ceasefire Hormuz crossing limit of last week, now with the added US blockade? Or something more? These tweet-length statements are killing me with the lack of detail.
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
Reopened Week in Review
Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz fully open for the remainder of the Lebanon cease‑fire, prompting Brent crude to tumble below $80 a barrel. The drop in oil prices coincides with a 3.6% decline in existing‑home sales in...
Lagarde Warns Inflation Risks Skewed Upward
ECB’s Lagarde says risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside https://t.co/03GtPv7xtj via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/m2Nl7hg63C
No Recession or Excess Leverage—Credit Cycle Remains Safe
What actually kills a credit cycle? Recession or too much leverage. Neither condition is in place right now according to Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson 🎙️ https://t.co/rdsmLpLKIt
Stocks Rally as Oil Plunges on Reopening of Hormuz Strait
U.S. equities surged on Friday after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that eased oil‑price pressures that have lingered since the Trump‑initiated conflict. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to a fresh all‑time high, the Nasdaq 100 added...
March US Inflation Stems From Money Supply, Not Oil
March's US CPI inflation (3.3%/yr) wasn't the result of higher oil prices. It occurred because the money supply was accelerating prior to the Iranian war. The 3-month annualized inflation rate in Feb. was exactly equal to March's 3.3%/yr. https://t.co/YBHCbqfLiV
Tariffs and Conflict Reveal Hidden Supply Chain Risks
"U.S. aluminum tariffs and the Iran war—a case study in unintended supply chain vulnerability" https://t.co/UuDRjms7S6 https://t.co/oZgTAVHOS4
Iran Conflict Poses Risk to Global Economy, IMF Members to Say
The International Monetary Fund’s policy‑making body is set to issue a statement warning that the ongoing Iran conflict constitutes a serious threat to the global economy. It cautions that sustained hostilities could keep oil and fertilizer prices elevated for an...
Mozambique Shows Debt Relief's Promise and Pitfalls
Mozambique is an example of where debt relief can work, but unfortunately, is also an example of where things can go wrong. @CGDev https://t.co/n8UiQp0jdb
Iran's “Open” Hormuz Route Fails to Reassure Shippers
"The Iranian foreign minister’s announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for ships that use an Iranian-prescribed route doesn’t give the shipping industry assurances to resume traffic through the strait" https://t.co/9MdBedoMmR
⛽ Iran’s Smartest Move Yet Wasn’t Closing Hormuz — It Was Reopening It. Let Me Explain.
Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz immediately after a temporary cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon, linking the maritime opening directly to the cease‑fire terms. The narrow waterway carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG, making its status a...
Can Africa Avoid Asia's Palm Oil Pitfalls?
African nations are seeking to slash palm‑oil imports—about half of current consumption—by expanding domestic production. Smallholders, who grow roughly 70% of the continent’s oil palm, average six tonnes per hectare, far below the 20‑plus tonnes achieved on Asian commercial estates....
What’s Next for US and Mexico Aluminium? Key Insights From Fastmarkets’ Market Outlook Webinar
Fastmarkets’ webinar highlighted that Middle East supply shocks and U.S. Section 232 tariff changes are tightening aluminium markets across the United States and Mexico. Billet and primary foundry alloy (PFA) premiums have surged, while scrap aluminium is gaining prominence as a...
India Markets Draw Long-Term Capital Amid Global Volatility: SEBI Chief
India’s capital markets are attracting long‑term capital despite global volatility, SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said at the IMF‑World Bank Spring Meetings. In fiscal year 2026 the markets raised over $154 billion through equity and debt issuances, while mutual‑fund assets approach...
Iran and US Say the Strait of Hormuz Is Completely Open
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial traffic, directing vessels to a new coordinated route around Larak Island. The United States, while acknowledging the declaration, kept a naval blockade in place against Iranian ports and...
EU Restores Full Relations, Boosts Trade and Security with Syria
JUST IN: EU's ramping up trade and security ties with Syria by restoring full relations.
Asset Unfreeze Tied to Hormuz Strait Opening
"unfreezing Iranian assets has been part of the agreement to open the Straight of Hormuz". --Iran $USO
Why Diesel Prices Surge Faster Than Gasoline in Every Energy Crisis
Diesel prices rise faster than gasoline during energy crises because the diesel market is structurally tighter, with lower inventories and limited refinery flexibility. Since the Iran conflict began, diesel has climbed $1.75 per gallon versus $1.11 for gasoline. The fuel’s...
Treasuries Rally as Oil Tumbles on Mideast Peace Deal Optimism
U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in a month as investors rushed to safe‑haven bonds, while oil prices dropped more than 5% on growing optimism that a Middle East peace deal is near. Benchmark yields slipped seven to...
Diplomacy, and Politics Before the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor: A Precursor to Current Use of Economic Sanctions
In early 1940 the United States shifted from limited protests to heavy economic sanctions against Japan after Tokyo joined the Tripartite Pact. The embargo on scrap iron, steel and oil crippled Japan’s war effort, prompting a rejected diplomatic request for...
Iran Opens Strait of Hormuz, but Few Box Ship Transits Predicted
Iran’s foreign minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" following a 10‑day Israel‑Lebanon cease‑fire, but industry insiders remain doubtful about actual container traffic. The United States continues its naval blockade and has warned it will pursue Iranian...
Reducing East Asia Surplus Key to Global Economic Balance
Global adjustment really does hinge on bringing down East Asia's surplus -- and of course also brining down the deficit of the US and the UK The second China shock already solved for Germany's surplus https://t.co/CQ5w2tBmTD