Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
India Upset that Buddy Iran Shot at Its Merchant Ships on Saturday; On Tuesday US Interdicted Two Oil Tankers Apparently...
India’s state‑owned India Ports Global (IPGL) operates the strategic Chabahar port in Iran, a key gateway for Indian trade to Central Asia. On April 14, 2026 a U.S. destroyer interdicted two oil tankers attempting to leave Iran via Chabahar, citing sanctions concerns. Earlier in April, Iranian IRGC gunboats fired on two Indian‑flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening maritime tensions. The incidents underscore the friction between India’s geopolitical ambitions and U.S. sanctions enforcement in the region.
China’s Gold Demand Quantified
China’s gold accumulation strategy, launched by the People’s Bank of China in 1983 and continued through 2002, has built a massive reserve that far exceeds official figures. Recent spikes in bullion prices, driven by weakening fiat currencies, are prompting Chinese...
Global Shock Feared as Iran Tightens Grip on Hormuz, Qatar Says Impact “Not Far Away”
Qatar’s finance minister warned that Iran’s tightening grip on the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a broader energy and commodity shock within months. The narrow waterway carries about one‑fifth of global energy supplies, a third of fertilizer trade and supports...
China Wins Back Elite Talent, Boosting Tech Outlook
Macro: China reclaims elite talent as US social strain and visa barriers drive returns. Key: media push, R&D incentives, income/prices. Risks: slowdown, geopolitics. Overweight China tech 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
$39 Trillion Debt Signal: 3 TIPS ETFs to Hedge Persistent Inflation
The U.S. Treasury’s latest report shows national debt climbing to roughly $39 trillion, with annual interest outlays near $970 billion—more than the entire defense budget. Policymakers may tolerate modestly higher inflation to ease the real debt burden, especially as $10 trillion of debt...
Malaysia's Fuel Crisis: Import Reliance Contradicts Official Optimism
The Prime Minister of Malaysia says 85% of Malaysians aren’t affected by the fuel crisis. The MOF says Malaysia consumes 700,000 barrels a day and produces 350,000. It imports the rest — and nearly 40% of those imports travel through...
India to Grow 6.8%-7.1% in FY27, Defies Oil Shock Pressures: SBI Report
SBI Research projects India’s GDP to expand between 6.8% and 7.1% in FY27, despite a fresh oil price shock and heightened West Asian tensions. The outlook follows a robust FY26 growth rate of 7.6%, mirroring the country’s resilience during the...
How 50 Days of the Iran War Led to the Loss of $50 Billion Worth of Oil
The Iran‑Israel war has knocked roughly 500 million barrels of crude and condensate off the market in just 50 days, erasing about $50 billion in revenue at $100 per barrel. Production in Gulf Arab states fell by 8 million barrels per day in March,...
From Aid to Investment: Africa Redraws the Terms of Partnership with Europe
At the Africa‑Europe Finance Ministers' Platform, AUDA‑NEPAD chief Nardos Bekele‑Thomas declared that Africa will no longer accept passive aid but will pursue strategic co‑investment with Europe. She highlighted the EU’s upcoming 2028‑2034 budget, which earmarks roughly $66 billion for Sub‑Saharan Africa,...
Aluminium Prices at Record Highs: What’s Driving the Rally and What’s Next?
Aluminium prices have surged to a four‑year high on the London Metal Exchange, touching a record ₹375 per kilogram (about $4.5) in India. The rally followed an initial dip after the US‑Iran conflict, rebounding as supply concerns and robust demand...
China Stockpiles Cheap Russian Oil; India Overpays
China's Q1 Russian crude imports hit a record high — way above past levels. Thanks to Indian refiners yielding to Trump’s pressure and cutting back, Beijing was stockpiling that oil on the cheap. Is this important? Yes, China is energy-secured. India...
Which European Countries Will Be the Richest by 2030?
IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects that by 2030 Ireland will lead Europe in GDP‑per‑capita purchasing power parity (PPP), edging out Luxembourg, which tops the 2025 list. Norway, Switzerland and Denmark are expected to remain in the top five, while Germany,...
When War Returns: Is International Law Still Holding?
Martin Owuor, Kenya’s Deputy Director of Legal Services, warns that the ongoing war in the Middle East is exposing the fragility of international law. He notes the UN Security Council’s silence on alleged aggression by the United States, Israel and...
Bangladesh Raises Fuel Prices as Iran War Drives up Costs
Bangladesh announced a 10‑15% increase in retail fuel prices, raising petrol to 135 taka (about $1.10) per litre and diesel to 115 taka. The hike reflects soaring global crude costs and supply disruptions linked to the seven‑week‑old Iran‑Israel conflict. The...
China Steps up Aid to Africa but Huge Funding Gap Left by Trump’s Cuts Remains
During Vice‑President Han Zheng’s March visit to Nairobi, China announced a cash grant for drought relief and delivered food aid to several African nations, assisting over 217,000 people in Zambia and providing 5,000 tonnes of rice to Zimbabwe. Beijing also pledged...
From Boom to Bust: Why Reforms Have Failed to Rebuild Nigeria’s Economy
Nigeria’s once‑broad industrial base has eroded despite decades of reforms, from the 1986 Structural Adjustment Programme to President Bola Tinubu’s recent fuel‑subsidy removal and exchange‑rate liberalisation. Liberalisation exposed local manufacturers to global competition, prompting closures and deepening reliance on oil...
India’s GDP Rank Dip Reflects Conversion, Not Weakness
India's GDP slipped to 6th positiion from 4th position. 📉 India's recent slip to sixth place in global GDP rankings does not reflect a weakening of the economy, but is largely the result of currency conversion effects and a one‑time statistical...
Iran Shuts Schools, Deploys Troops, Signaling Escalation
🚨🚨 🇮🇷 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: Iran closes 𝗮𝗹𝗹 schools and universities 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆. 𝗔𝗹𝗹 ground forces deployed in the region. The last time Iran did this: it was hours before 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹. The message is clear: Ceasefire violations have a 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲. Netanyahu bombs...
A $176 Billion Reality Check for Europe’s Luxury Brands as Middle East Tensions Hit Shoppers
Europe’s ten listed luxury groups have erased roughly $176 bn of market value since January, as the Middle East war curtails affluent travel. The hit is most acute for LVMH, which alone lost close to $100 bn, while Kering and Hermès also...
U.S. Weighs Higher Auto Tariffs to Spur Reshoring of Vehicle Production
The Trump administration is exploring rule changes that could raise tariffs on imported vehicles and require a higher share of U.S. parts, aiming to accelerate reshoring of auto manufacturing. Officials say the proposals are still preliminary, but they signal renewed...
March Home Sales Slip, Unemployment Claims Drop, Wholesale Prices Jump
U.S. home sales fell to their slowest pace in nine months in March while weekly unemployment claims declined and wholesale price indexes surged. The divergent data points highlight a housing market losing momentum even as the labor market eases and...
Netherlands Triggers First Phase of Oil Crisis Plan as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Spike
The Dutch cabinet activated the first phase of its national oil crisis plan on Monday, placing the country at level 1 of a four‑stage response. The move follows renewed Iranian interference in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly...
Greenland Approves 92.5% Stake Transfer in Tanbreez Rare Earth Mine Amid U.S. Influence Debate
Greenland’s Ministry of Mineral Resources and Business approved an indirect transfer that lifts Critical Metals Corp’s stake in the Tanbreez rare‑earth mine to 92.5%. The move, seen as a strategic win for the company, has ignited criticism over perceived U.S....
Winter, Waves and the Return of the Unresolved
The Philippines is entering the "winter" phase of a multidecade Kondratieff cycle, marked by slowing growth and heightened risk aversion. The PSEi has been consolidating despite post‑pandemic earnings recovery, while corporate leverage relative to market value has risen to levels...
Commodity Surge Boosts Norway, Canada, Australia and NZ Currencies Over Dollar
A spike in commodity prices linked to the Middle East war has propelled the currencies of Norway, Canada, Australia and New Zealand ahead of the U.S. dollar. Reuters analysis notes these four “commodity currencies” are among the top two performers...
BOJ Governor Ueda Signals No April Rate Hike, Market Bets Drop to 10%
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would likely hold rates through April, steering clear of any hint of a hike. His comments sent the market's perceived probability of an April increase plunging from about 70% to...
IEA Warns of Fuel Price Surge as Southeast Asia Rushes $1.5 Bn Renewable Build‑out
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the ongoing fuel crisis is the "largest energy security threat in history," prompting Southeast Asian governments to fast‑track renewable projects worth more than $1.5 billion. The region is adding solar, hydro, wind and pumped‑storage capacity...
The Strait Tightens Again
Iran has again restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil. The move follows Washington’s decision to keep its blockade of Iranian ports in place, escalating the long‑standing U.S.–Iran standoff....
OMB Chief Admits No Clue on Iran War Cost
My view on the biggest news of the week in @MarioNawfal: “The Director of US Office and Management and Budget Russell Vought testified that, he had no idea what the war with Iran was going to cost. Amazing, Trump goes to...
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...
Fed Mulls Rate Cuts as Middle East Peace Talks Advance, Targets 3% by Year‑End
Federal Reserve officials said the central bank could lower the federal funds rate to around 3% by the end of 2026, citing progress in Middle East peace talks as a factor that eases geopolitical risk. The stance follows a March...
Houthis Vow Strait Blockade over Trump's Peace Obstruction
JUST IN: Yemen's Houthis threaten to block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key trade route, if US President Donald Trump keeps impeding peace efforts.
Balancing Oil Markets May Require Global Recession, Sparks Crisis
Feels like the only way to bring finished goods markets in oil/gas in balance is a Global Recession. Massive humanitarian crisis.
G7 Finance Ministers Commit Funding to Cut China Dependence in Critical Minerals
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven met in Washington on April 17 and agreed to cooperate on funding mechanisms that will diversify supply chains for lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. The pact targets over‑reliance on China and seeks...
US Loses Chinese Talent Amid Immigration Hurdles, Crime Fears
America’s Allure Fades in China, Keeping Talent Away—U.S. immigration hurdles and fear of crime, amplified by state media, have more of China’s best and brightest deciding to stay home @BrianSpegele @joshchin https://t.co/A5h4aPeUks https://t.co/A5h4aPeUks
EU Juggles Conflicts with China, Russia, Iran, and USA
The EU managed to be in conflict with China, Russia, Iran, the USA, and within itself simultaneously. Esmaeil here is being too nice.
U.S. Industrial Production Falls 0.5% in March as Manufacturing Output Eases Amid Iran Conflict
U.S. industrial production contracted 0.5% in March, driven by a 0.1% dip in manufacturing output as the Iran war heightened energy and material costs. The decline follows a revised 0.7% gain in February and runs counter to economists’ modest growth...
Strait Disruption Could Drop 2026 Oil Demand Below IEA Forecast
The @IEA projects that the world would use ~104 million barrels per day in 2026. With the disruption in the disruption in the Strait we are already predicted to go down to an average of 100mbpd for 2026-- maybe lower.🧵
U.S. Debt Set to Spike to 142% of GDP
THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. The IMF estimates that the United States’ public debt will surge from 124% of GDP in 2025 to 142% by 2031. USA = ECONOMIC STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON. https://t.co/ZB6XlfUvlR
AIIB Warns Water‑finance Plunge Threatens Emerging‑market Credit and Growth
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s 2026 “Where the Water Flows” report says water‑related financing dropped from 30% of development finance in 2000 to about 10% in 2020, heightening economic risk for emerging markets. The study links rising water stress to...
U.S. Extends Russian Oil Waiver as Central Bank Reprices Ruble, Dollar, Euro and Yuan
The U.S. Treasury renewed a license allowing purchases of Russian oil cargoes through May 16, easing global supply concerns. At the same time, the Russian central bank cut the official dollar and yuan rates and lifted the euro rate, pushing...
Hormuz Reopening Sends Brent Below $90, Triggers Dollar’s Third Weekly Loss and Pounds Weakening
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude futures 10% lower to under $90 a barrel, sparking the U.S. dollar’s third consecutive weekly decline and a 1.2% slide in the pound. Traders see the move as a catalyst...
Hedge Funds Hold Record 8% of U.S. Treasuries, Apollo Warns of Shockwave Risk
Apollo Global Management’s chief economist disclosed that hedge funds now own a record 8% of the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, backed by over $6 trillion of leveraged capital. The warning highlights the danger that a rapid unwind could send shockwaves through...
Nickel Futures Hit $18,550/T as Indonesia Tightens Export Quotas
Nickel futures surged to around $18,550 per tonne, the strongest level in three months, after Indonesia announced a tighter export quota and a new ore pricing formula. The move lifted the cost floor for upstream producers, pushing prices up 4.8%...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% YoY, DBS Trims 2026 Rate‑Cut Forecast to 10 Bps
DBS Group Research cut its 2026 one‑year LPR easing forecast to a 10‑basis‑point cut after China reported a 5.0% year‑on‑year GDP expansion in Q1 2026. The stronger‑than‑expected growth, driven by export demand, reduces urgency for aggressive monetary easing, a shift...
The Confidence Cycle Game: Mastering the Flow of Trust Podcast
The Macro Butler released a new podcast episode titled "The Confidence Cycle Game: Mastering the Flow of Trust," which distills the latest weekly newsletter into an audio‑visual format. The show is available on Substack, YouTube, Rumble and TikTok, and listeners...
MicroStrategy Stock Surges 12% as Bitcoin Tops $76,000 Amid Iran Conflict De‑escalation
MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares leapt 11.88% on Friday as Bitcoin surged past $76,000, a move linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a de‑escalation in the Iran‑U.S. standoff. The rally underscores how the firm’s massive Bitcoin treasury can...
China Begins Building US$1 Billion Hydropower Station in Cambodia Amid Energy Crisis
China’s state‑owned China National Heavy Machinery Corporation has broken ground on the Upper Tatay pumped‑storage hydropower project in Cambodia’s Koh Kong province. The $1 billion, 1‑gigawatt facility will act as a “green power bank,” storing excess solar and wind energy and releasing...
India to Benefit From US Extension of Russian Oil Waiver
The United States has extended a limited waiver for Russian oil transactions until May 16, 2026, covering cargoes already in transit or contracted before the cut‑off date. The extension, granted despite political opposition, does not signal a broader easing of sanctions...
Chinese Exporters Overstate US Exports by $112 B, Boosting Fraud
11% of US trade has turned fraudulent since Liberation day created massive incentive to cheat on your tariffs. Chinese exporters declare the value of their US exports to the Chinese government $112B higher than the value of the same goods as...