Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The World Bank announced a $10 bn financing package for Mozambique, including $6 bn of mostly concessional public‑investment funding and an additional $4 bn earmarked for private‑sector projects. A $921 m grant from the International Development Association’s 21st replenishment is also part of the deal. The package is designed to support macro‑fiscal consolidation and sustain economic recovery amid IMF warnings about rising debt and fiscal deficits. It arrives as Mozambique revives a major TotalEnergies LNG project while grappling with climate‑related disasters and security challenges.
The key deadline your company needs to be aware of to make sure you're eligible for tariff refunds is June 13, 2026. After that date you will not be able to file protests for entries filed on February 4th,...
Britain’s decision on the Chagos Islands is more than politics. It shapes how strategic rivals — especially China — interpret UK resolve, alliances and influence. This analysis explains why this matters in the context of great-power competition and what it reveals about...
The Trump administration announced a 10% import tariff effective Feb 24, but most fertilizers remain exempt, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, DAP, MAP and other key products. The exemption does not cover sulfur, sulfuric acid and ammonia unless they enter through...
It seems like we're all waiting for a climax on this chart. Whether it might be the end of the tarrifs. Whether it might be a deal between Iran and the US. Something will turn this around, it's not a matter of...
A nice little market selloff creates a flight to safety. And gets the 30-year fixed below that stubborn 6% threshold, finally. The key will be staying sub-6% to allow human psychology to work its magic during the spring home buying...
A recent Purdue Ag Economy Barometer survey shows 80% of U.S. soybean growers are concerned about Brazil’s growing export advantage. Farm‑level data from 2020‑2024 reveal Brazilian soybean operations in Mato Grosso have lower total costs per ton than Iowa farms, despite...
In late 2025 and early 2026 the U.S. Coast Guard and allied forces seized three oil tankers—M/T Skipper, M/T Centuries and Bella 1—after months of multi‑source intelligence proved they were moving sanctioned cargo. The operation underscores a new enforcement paradigm: governments...
On 27 January 2026 a Russian Shahed drone struck Ukraine’s Brody pumping station, shutting the Druzhba pipeline’s southern branch that supplies Russian Urals crude to Hungary and Slovakia. The outage, now in its 27th day, has cut 60‑70 % of feedstock for MOL...
Cheap Chinese EVs are boon, until the company goes bust. "Neta Auto’s parent company filed for bankruptcy last year after failing to pay wages, stranding customers in Thailand without after-sales support. Singulato, Aiways, Byton, and Levdeo have all shut down." https://restofworld.org/2026/china-ev-exports-competition-price/
Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, published an analysis in the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences critiquing the U.S. National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration in November 2025. She argues the strategy leaves Europe squeezed between an...
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
The used‑truck market, long viewed as a real‑time barometer for freight health, is showing signs of recovery as large fleets begin to replace aging equipment. Spot rates have risen and diesel prices have fallen, easing the scarcity that has constrained...
Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal, as per the SC, and he's going to have to work with Congress and subject to the law now to sustain the tariff regime in various other ways. Or go back to court. China and...
Chad shut its eastern border with Sudan after weekend clashes killed five Chadian soldiers and three civilians in the border town of Tine. The fighting involved Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces and militia loyal to Khartoum, reflecting the spill‑over of Sudan’s...
#NABE2026 AI and the federal deficits - Wendy Eldeberg formerly of CBO and now Brookings notes that AI could diminish taxable incomes? Reality nuanced due to taxes on workers could diminish. 🤯 AI boom could create a painful labor market...
The article argues that Japan must step up its role in Micronesia to help counter China’s expanding footprint across the Western Pacific. The United States relies on COFA agreements that provide billions in aid and unrestricted base access, yet implementation...
Lebanese officials are debating selling or leasing part of the country’s 280‑ton gold reserves, now worth roughly $45 billion after a 70 % price surge. The gold, the largest Middle‑East reserve after Saudi Arabia, could fund a financial‑gap law essential for an...
There are 178 components to core PCE and 48% of them saw YoY inflation >3%. This was 42% a year ago. We continue to think inflation will run closer to 3% than 2% and we do have a little bit of...
UK unemployment rose to 5.2% in late 2025, the highest in five years, while startup formation hit a two‑year peak. Despite the boom, new ventures are creating only 2.7 jobs on average, and 58% of founders say AI adoption is...
U.S. companies with regular Canadian orders are re‑evaluating fulfillment strategies as border delays, rising transportation costs, and recent tariff changes erode the efficiency of U.S‑centric models. Positioning inventory in Canada—either via owned warehouses or third‑party logistics providers—removes the final customs...
Glasgow Prestwick Airport showcased its upgraded cool‑chain infrastructure to India’s Consul General, Siddharth Malik, as part of a push to capture a larger slice of post‑Brexit UK‑India trade. The visit highlighted the airport’s integrated, in‑house cargo model, bonded warehouse space...
#NABE2026 Dan Yergin Vice Chairman of S&P500 expert on energy market. N Dakota produces more oil than Venezuela. We have to question reserves in VZ - over half requires $70-$80 per barrel to produce. Too expensive. Skeptical about how...
The Chinese are buying gold ETFs like HOT CAKES. According to the World Gold Council, China’s gold ETF holdings rose from 188.8 tonnes at the end of August 2025 to 286.3 tonnes by the end of January, a 52% increase. BUY GOLD,...
President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to impose a 15% tariff on a broad range of imports, framing it as a response to a purported balance‑of‑payments crisis. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the duties as a...
👀 #Energy-related companies' interest in opportunities in #Venezuela is starting to show up in lobbying reports. Expect to see more of this K Street action, as we reported in this morning's @axios Future of Energy newsletter. #OOTT (1/3)
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
The United Kingdom has unveiled a comprehensive Indo‑Pacific strategy that ties Euro‑Atlantic security to a free and open Indo‑Pacific, emphasizing flexible, values‑based partnerships. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent China visit secured visa‑free travel for UK citizens and greater market access for...
I’m honoured to receive the Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award for Economic Policy. Paul Volcker’s personal conviction reshaped the trajectory of central banking in the US and around the world. Read my speech https://t.co/YcIx8y210A https://t.co/w1EZ0DOmzW
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
The European Union is accelerating its engagement with the Indo‑Pacific, highlighted by high‑level visits to India and new free‑trade agreements with Indonesia and a pending deal with India. This pivot reflects two structural shifts: a push for strategic autonomy away...
It's kind of amazing there is so much worry about AI doom with the S&P 500 w/in 2% of all-time highs and the unemployment rate at 4.3% Have we ever had an enormous risk like this play out with everyone worried...
The economic impact of tariff changes. Me on @cnni with @jimsciutto - a bit of good news on rule of law, not much immediate relief. See @PIIE for more analysis https://t.co/bbkP6I3455
Gartner’s Q4 2025 Emerging Risk Report, based on a survey of 367 senior risk executives, identified a low‑growth economic environment as the top emerging risk for the second quarter in a row. Respondents linked the concern to financial instability, persistent trade...
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
The Philippines’ political landscape is defined by sharp swings in civil liberties that correspond to changes in presidential leadership rather than formal rule changes. Family‑based dynastic networks and clientelistic coalitions amplify these shifts, producing periods of illiberal governance under leaders...
Indeed; an important point -- tho the dollar's reserve currency role is often taken to mean its role in private payments not just in official reserves. More importantly, there is a lot quasi-reserves floating around now --...
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose from 2.8%/yr in November to 2.9%/yr in December. That’s ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/bTd3rr7JXl
POLL: Busy week 📉 Markets React to Trump Tariff threats 🛍️February Consumer Confidence data 🤖Nvidia Earnings report 📊Jobless Claims data 💸January PPI Inflation data 👉Will crypto see new lows this week? $BTC $SOL $ETH $XRP
It is a prudent investment decision to respect 5pm Friday news drops given recent precedents. https://t.co/phlsQarN5X
Another threat from Trump on tariffs. How much market diversification can countries do? Now? In the next 12 months? And supply chains and logistics?
Americans go negative on Trump's tariffs. A majority of U.S. adults say that the impact of tariffs on their families will be negative. https://t.co/eOn1TQa7Bi
Chile basks in the afterglow of the free-market reforms put in place by Pinochet’s Chicago Boys (1973–1990). Argentina struggles under the weight of the Argentine peso. CHILE LEAVES ARGENTINA IN THE DUST. https://t.co/UyNgQY2kIL
EU stops trade deal with the US. What is next for the EU, India, and China and trade deals with the US? And for supply chains and logistics?
#DXY net longs make it to net longs territory for now https://t.co/HWXbhMOOqi #forex $FXE $UUP https://t.co/Emg2FxVwkD
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
Fed’s Waller: Spending on AI. That capital could go to manufacturing and upstream supply chain fe-risking and diversification. Reshore? Onshore? And the economy and jobs?
USDA confirms the sale of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in 2025/26.
As a result of Trump's tariffs, Americans bought less from China, but more from other countries around the world — Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand. TARIFFS DON'T CLOSE TRADE DEFICITS. THEY JUST RE-SHUFFLE THE SOURCES OF IMPORTS. https://t.co/CFIWJu9be2
