Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The Gemini alliance of Hapag‑Lloyd and Maersk has lifted its on‑time delivery rates well above industry averages, though it still falls short of its 90% target for most services. Xeneta data shows global carrier punctuality plunged to 30% in January, while Gemini maintained sub‑day average delays and hit over 90% on‑time for four straight months on Europe‑USEC routes. Transit‑time padding comparisons reveal Gemini’s schedules are tighter and more realistic than rival alliances. The alliance’s focus on delivering performance rather than over‑promising is reshaping reliability expectations in container shipping.
The Slovenian Port of Koper reported a robust 2025, handling 23.0 million tonnes of cargo while rail’s share of total throughput rose to 51%. Net sales reached €380.3 million, up 13% versus the plan and 15% year‑on‑year, and EBIT surged 44% to...
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
Unicapital Securities cut its PSEi year‑end target to 6,800, down from 7,100, after re‑rating the index at a 10.5‑times price‑to‑earnings multiple. The downgrade reflects a lingering corruption scandal that has stalled government infrastructure projects and heightened policy uncertainty, including a...
India will revamp its real‑GDP calculation by adopting a double‑deflation approach that blends 500‑600 price items from the consumer‑price index and the wholesale‑price index, replacing the earlier 180‑item basket. The new methodology, slated for release on 27 February with a...
Japan’s economy minister Ryosei Akazawa asked U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to ensure Japan is not treated less favorably under the new 150‑day tariff regime that replaces the invalidated reciprocal levies. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global...
Bangladesh’s new government has formally asked the United Nations to delay its graduation from least‑developed country (LDC) status. The request cites mounting macroeconomic stress, trade uncertainty and institutional weaknesses. Deferring graduation would preserve preferential trade benefits that shield Bangladeshi exports...
President Donald Trump enacted a 10% global tariff on Tuesday, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier sweeping duties. The administration is preparing a formal order to lift the levy to 15%, though a timeline remains unclear. The...
Chinese outbound travelers, the world’s third‑largest source of visitors and top spender in 2019, are forecast to recover to roughly 50% of pre‑pandemic volumes by 2027 and become the leading outbound market by 2030. Michael Shoory of Tourism Economics notes...
Grains Australia CEO Richard Simonaitis told the GRDC Perth Update that bio‑fuel policies are reshaping Australian grain exports, with EU canola demand driving Western Australia’s highest‑value market. At the same time, feedgrain demand in Southeast Asia is accelerating faster than...
🔴This is one of the WORST starts for the S&P 500 to the year in HISTORY: S&P 500 is lagging the rest of the world equities by 8 percentage points, the worst start to a year in at least 17 years. The...
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade has slashed RoDTEP export rebates by 50%, cutting both rates and value caps across all eligible categories. The move raises the effective cost of exporting, especially for price‑sensitive goods such as textiles and raw...
Xflow, a Bengaluru‑based fintech, closed a $16.6 million Series A round led by General Catalyst with participation from Stripe and PayPal Ventures, valuing the company at $85 million post‑money. The startup now has over $32 million in total funding and processes roughly $1 billion in...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to block the Trump‑era tariffs on Chinese beauty products, ending weeks of uncertainty for the industry. Beauty founders and executives, who had been bracing for higher import costs, described the decision as a “relief” after...
Equifax Canada’s Q4 2025 credit report shows total consumer debt rose to $2.65 trillion, up 3.1% year‑over‑year, driven by higher mortgage balances and a 4.5% jump in non‑mortgage debt. Non‑mortgage delinquency peaked at 1.73%, with the 26‑35 age group posting the highest...
China’s growing threat to seize Taiwan has reignited U.S. fears over semiconductor supply chains. Taiwan manufactures roughly 90% of the world’s high‑end chips, feeding Apple, AMD, Qualcomm and AI data centers. Despite billions in Biden‑era grants and Trump‑era tariff threats,...
Japan is overhauling its national security strategy as U.S. “America First” policies erode traditional defense guarantees. Rising Chinese assertiveness, the spillover of the Ukraine war, and rapid advances in drone and AI warfare have forced Tokyo to prioritize strategic autonomy....
On February 9, Jemmia Joint Stock Company welcomed UAE Ambassador Dr. Bader Almatrooshi to its Ho Chi Minh City headquarters for a Vietnam‑UAE trade dialogue. The session gathered Vietnamese firms from real estate, agriculture, robotics, renewable energy and other sectors to discuss cooperation...
India plans to raise 1.79 trillion rupees (about $19.7 billion) by selling stakes in state‑run firms through IPOs by the 2029/30 fiscal year. The effort is part of a broader $183.7 billion asset‑monetisation drive announced by NITI Aayog, following an earlier phase that fell...
Japan's Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to its liquidity‑enhancement auction framework for government bonds, aiming to ease supply pressure on the super‑long end of the curve. From April, the mid‑term bucket could be narrowed from a 5‑15.5‑year range to...
The Swiss franc is consolidating its role as the premier safe‑haven currency, with EUR/CHF breaking below the 0.92 support level early this year. Analysts from RBC, Morgan Stanley and Credit Agricole argue that ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak economic data...
China’s state‑owned COMAC is exporting its C909 and C919 aircraft alongside tailored financing, leasing and equity deals, turning planes into long‑term financial levers. The most visible case is Laos, where COMAC holds a 49% stake in Lao Airlines after a lease‑to‑equity...
Ontario’s mining sector faces heightened global competition as nations vie for critical minerals essential to clean energy and technology. The province’s policy framework emphasizes certainty, efficiency, and reliability to lure investment. Industry leaders argue that turning policy commitments into concrete...
Thailand’s labour productivity has stalled, averaging just 2.1% growth from 2015 to 2023, down from 3.7% in the 1990s‑2010 period. OECD product‑market regulation (PMR) scores rank the country among the most restrictive economies, with a 2.4 rating – the fourth...
Five and a half years after the Abraham Accords, U.S. and Israeli officials argue that regional integration remains viable despite the Gaza war and a Saudi‑UAE rift. The article stresses that advancing phase two of Trump’s Gaza reconstruction plan—contingent on...
Apple announced it will begin assembling a portion of its Mac Mini desktop computers at Foxconn’s new plant in north Houston later this year, while maintaining Asian production lines. The move aligns with the company’s broader $600 billion U.S. investment commitment...
The on‑shore yuan surged to a 2½‑year high as USD/CNY slipped below 6.90, reaching 6.8954. The People’s Bank of China posted a slightly firmer daily midpoint of 6.9414 and reduced the usual damping in the fixing process. This narrower gap...
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
In the aftermath of Trump’s new 15% tariffs, the UK threatens it will RETALIATE. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/k7gyK9spmB
Donald Trump’s tenure produced headline‑grabbing pro‑Israel actions, including the Abraham Accords, the Jerusalem embassy move, and the killing of Qasem Soleimani, which were celebrated as diplomatic victories. Yet the article argues that his maximalist, transaction‑focused style has created strategic liabilities for...
China Hits Japanese Firms With Export Bans—Move marks another escalation in economic campaign against Japan over prime minister’s Taiwan comment @wsj_douglasj https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5 https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal held a virtual meeting with Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu to revive the stalled India‑Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The dialogue coincides with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming visit to India and...
European auto sales fall even as EV demand cushions the drop https://t.co/MRYjYElcs2 via @MonicaRaymunt https://t.co/fVEMCkDkcZ
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
Memo to self: file under unintended consequences. ✍️ @ft “The tariff structure puts all countries on an equal footing. . 💥”But parity with China is not necessarily good news.” For other countries 🎩📈 @SimonEvenett @IMD_Bschool https://t.co/OCibAcj1Ms
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
PM Takaichi sticks with Japan's one-sided trade agreement with the US. India’s PM Modi has wisely not signed a trade agreement with Uncle Sam. INDIA LEAVES JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/aWVetL1q0z
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
Bloomberg is still arguing “oil glut” & saying the correlation between geopolitics in the Middle East & oil prices is "broken" How can @bbgoriginals be 6 months behind the curve & still be in the news business? #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Commodities...
The shadow oil fleet isn’t gone — it’s under stress Seizures raise costs & strand barrels, but doing more against Russian & Iranian flows means higher oil prices & inflation https://t.co/P5EDN7PrRY #Oil #Sanctions #EnergySecurity #Russia #Iran #Geopolitics
A Mexican civil war would be far more catastrophic to American supply chains than tariffs - Michael Vincent
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Japan’s big bet on the U.S. housing market got even bigger today Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—now Daiwa House is buying United Homes That's just 10 days after Japan-based Sumitomo Forestry said it's buying Tri Point Homes https://t.co/UnPOshRdS1
Today, Trump issued a statement on Truth Social saying "any country that wants to play games with the ridiculous Supreme Court decision... will be met with a much higher tariff." THE TARIFF MAN HAS LOST IT. https://t.co/AA365cmzVQ
