Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Mark Carney Calls Canada's US Ties a Weakness
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that Canada’s close economic ties to the United States have become a strategic “weakness” as the country prepares for a series of high‑stakes trade negotiations later this year. His comments followed sharp criticism from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who said the current US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement needs to be “re‑imagined” and accused Canada of “mooching” off the American economy. In response, Carney announced a September investment summit designed to attract roughly $730 billion in new capital to diversify Canada’s growth engines. The remarks underscore Ottawa’s push to reduce reliance on Washington while still navigating the broader geopolitical turbulence affecting global trade and energy markets.
Gold Falls as Renewed Hormuz Disruption Stokes Inflation Concern
Gold prices fell sharply after a weekend flare‑up in the Strait of Hormuz reignited concerns about an energy‑supply shock and higher inflation. The bullion market dropped as much as 1.9%, later stabilizing around $4,790 an ounce. The tension escalated when...
Oil and Gas Jump After US Seizure of Iranian Ship Imperils Talks
U.S. Navy forces seized an Iranian vessel, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz again over accusations of a U.S. blockade. The move sparked a sharp rally in energy markets, with Brent crude jumping up to 7.9% and European...
Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran...
‘Saying You’re a Geopolitical Actor Doesn’t Make It so’: Sven Biscop on Europe
Sven Biscop warns that Europe’s marginal role in the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict exposes a chronic lack of military capacity and a fragmented diplomatic response. He argues the EU must move beyond rhetoric, develop a unified diplomatic push, and create an autonomous...
IRAN WAR TRIGGERS GLOBAL TOURISM CRISIS AND EUROPE EMERGES AS BIG WINNER
The Iran‑Russia conflict has forced airlines to reroute flights around the Gulf, lengthening journeys and nearly doubling fares on some routes. Restrictions at Dubai, Abu Dabi and Doha have slashed UAE bookings by more than 90%, while fuel‑price spikes in Germany...
Spectre of Stagflation Haunts Thailand
Thailand’s economy is wobbling after the Songkran break as energy price freezes end and inflation pressures rise. Analysts warn Q2 inflation could climb to 3‑4% while GDP growth stalls around 1%, creating a mild stagflation risk. The new government may...
China's 11 M Bpd Crude Imports Dominated by Gulf
11 million barrels a day and most of it from the Gulf… Source: Visual Capitalist http://visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-imports-by-country/
The Strait that Shook the World
The ongoing conflict in the Gulf has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 30% of global fertilizer exports and 20% of liquefied natural gas flow. The Gulf region produces about 40% of the world’s exported urea...
How Trump’s Protectionism on Aluminum Works in Two Pictures
President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on aluminum started at 10% in 2018 and were increased to 50% in 2025, eliminating most exemptions. Instead of boosting domestic output, primary smelting fell from dozens to just four plants, with only two operating at...
MAKING SENSE OF THE LAST TWO MONTHS
Over the past two months U.S. equities have rallied about 7%, driven by a slowdown in inflation, a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, and stronger-than-expected tech earnings. Core CPI slipped 0.2% month‑over‑month, reinforcing expectations of at least one additional rate...
Wall Street Just Sent Oil Stocks a Brutal Message After Iran’s Move
U.S. equities surged on April 17 after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz would remain open, easing fears of a supply shock. Brent slipped to about $88.90 a barrel and U.S. crude to $83.08, prompting a rapid sell‑off in oil‑related stocks....
Middle East Conflict Dampens Spring Home Sales, Mortgage Rates Edge Higher
U.S. existing‑home sales fell to a nine‑month low this month as the Middle East conflict spooked buyers and nudged the 30‑year mortgage rate to 6.30%. Analysts say lower consumer confidence and higher borrowing costs are stalling the traditionally busy spring...
WTO Reviews Safeguard Actions as Major Members Push to Suspend Trade Concessions
The WTO's safeguard committee, chaired by Peru's Milagros Miranda Rojas, reviewed notifications from 14 members and debated proposals from the EU, Japan, India and the UK to suspend trade concessions. The United States rejected the premise that its own tariffs...
Lithium Rush: Nations and Corporations Scramble for the White Gold as EV Demand Soars
China, the United States, Europe and South American producers are locked in a race to secure lithium as global battery demand climbs to over $150 bn. Production is projected to hit 290,000 t in 2025, while China is set to control roughly...
U.S. Dollar Falls as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Spur Risk‑On Trading
The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro and yen after diplomatic signals raised hopes for a ceasefire in Iran. Traders moved out of safe‑haven assets into equities and emerging‑market bets, prompting a broader risk‑on rally.
IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% Amid Middle East Oil Shock
The International Monetary Fund reduced its 2026 global growth projection to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing a sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East war. The downgrade comes with a higher inflation outlook and a range of downside scenarios that could...
JPMorgan CEO Dimon Warns Next Credit Crisis Could Outpace Expectations
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told investors on the 1Q26 earnings call that the next credit crisis will be "worse than people expect." His warning follows strong earnings at major banks and raises concerns about future stress in corporate and...
China's 5% Q1 GDP Boost Sends Iron Ore to $114.79/ton
China reported 5% first‑quarter GDP growth, prompting iron ore prices to climb to $114.79 per ton on April 16, 2026. The rally reflects expectations of stronger steel demand and tighter supply amid Chinese output cuts.
The RBA’s Policy Deliberately Creates Unemployment. So Why Do We Treat the Jobless so Badly?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is using higher interest rates to deliberately raise unemployment, aiming to lower inflation expectations. Current unemployment sits at 4.3% (about 650,000 people), which the RBA deems still too low for price stability. Critics argue...
Monday: Oil & US$ to Rise as Strait Closes Again
The episode examines the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran attacked two vessels, sparking a rebound in oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk. ANZ economists explain that while oil may climb $1 per barrel in Asian trade,...
Germany's Merz, Brazil's Lula Stress Close European-Brazilian Cooperation
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula met at the Hanover industrial fair to promote deeper EU‑Brazil ties. They welcomed the EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement, which came into force on May 1, 2026, and highlighted Brazil’s vast mineral wealth, including the...
U.S. Invests in Project to Remove Rare Earth Minerals Despite Differences with South Africa
Washington’s International Development Finance Corporation has pledged a $50 million equity stake in the Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project, an effort to extract rare earth elements from 35 million tons of phosphogypsum waste in South Africa. The venture, led by Rainbow Rare Earths...
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
Canada’s Economic Ties with US Are a Weakness that Must Be Corrected, Says Carney
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that Canada’s historic economic reliance on the United States has become a strategic weakness. He cited recent U.S. tariff hikes and political rhetoric as drivers of uncertainty for Canadian manufacturers and investors. Carney outlined...
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U-Shaped Recovery: What It Means, How It Works, and Examples
A U-shaped recovery describes an economic cycle where a sharp decline in GDP, employment and industrial output is followed by a prolonged period of stagnation before a gradual return to pre‑recession levels. The pattern contrasts with a V‑shaped rebound, which...
Iran War Derails India’s IMEC & INSTC Trade Routes: Hormuz Closure Pauses Delhi’s Connectivity Ambitions
The escalating Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has forced the Strait of Hormuz shut, halting progress on India’s flagship land‑sea corridors – the India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the International North‑South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Both projects rely on Iranian cooperation and Gulf‑side...
Your Savings Lose Value: Inflation Beats 0.5%
Inflation has averaged 3.8% annually since 1960. Your savings account pays 0.5%. You are losing money every single day it sits there.
Oil Spikes 6.5% Amid Iran‑U.S. Ship Attacks
Oil prices jump 6.5% after Iran and U.S. attack ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz: https://t.co/aZcReIm6Eb
Travel Experts Warn Summer Vacationers of Higher Prices and Flight Uncertainty
Travel experts say summer vacationers should brace for rising ticket prices, reduced flight availability and greater schedule disruptions as the jet‑fuel market tightens amid the ongoing Iran war, prompting travelers to adjust budgets and consider alternative plans.
Strait Closure Triggers Supply Shortages and Price Spikes
For the first time, the Strait is completely closed. Nothing moving does not help the related supply shortages. And their prices.
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
MPS Launches Q1 2026 Multi‑asset Fund Performance Update and Market Outlook Webinar
MPS Wealth Management released its Q1 2026 multi‑asset fund performance update and global market outlook, pairing the data with a 45‑minute live webinar on April 22. The session, hosted by George Bromfield and CIO William Dinning with guest Alena Isakova,...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Trump's Tariffs Failed to Generate Significant Revenue
My good friend Chris Wood on the failure of Pres. Trump's tariffs to produce a massive increase in government revenue: "Evidence of fiscal improvement as a result of the surge in tariff revenues over the past year remains minimal." TRUMP = FALSE...
Fed Raises March Inflation Forecast, Delaying Near‑Term Rate‑Cut Hopes
The Federal Reserve quietly lifted its March inflation projection, signaling stronger‑than‑expected price pressures. The revision, coupled with fresh energy‑price shocks, has pushed back market expectations for the next interest‑rate cut and revived worries about the Fed’s credibility.
Afghan War Costs $6.5T—Over Four Times Social Security
My take on the cost of the war on Iran on @MarioNawfal: "For context, the Afghan war cost is $6.5T. That is 4.3 times higher than the largest single line item in the US Federal budget, Social Security.” WARS ARE EXPENSIVE. https://t.co/C98QPx7rM4
Debunking the Case for Tariffs and Exposing Corruption
Pleased to see the WSJ publish my & @AlfredCObregon's letter responding to a(nother) weak op-ed trying to make "The Case for Tariffs". (We hit on more than corruption, but that's what they chose for the title.) Read it all here: https://t.co/BAIWkel6oT...
African Finance Chiefs Seek Emergency Funding as US‑Iran War Threatens Currency Stability
African finance ministers and central bank governors convened on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings to request emergency financing, citing the US‑Iran war’s impact on fuel prices, supply chains and foreign aid. Angola, the Republic of...
Trump Claims Deal Near; Iran Denies Any Talks
Trump says a deal is almost done Iran says it never agreed to talk https://t.co/H0jEhPmqRb
Seeking Recent Kevin Warsh Interviews, Including John Cochrane
hey, Claude cue me up some Kevin Warsh interviews / talks / panels from the past five years to (re)listen to. ... even found some with John Cochrane, bonus.
Iran‑Israel‑US War Cuts Over $50 Bn of Oil Output, Raising Global Stagflation Risks
The Iran‑Israel‑US war has removed more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate from the market, erasing roughly $50 bn in revenue. The loss threatens to push import‑dependent economies into stagflation as oil prices surge and trade balances deteriorate.
UK Remains G7's Most Inflation‑prone Economy, Pre‑Iran War
Britain is the most inflation-prone nation in the G7. That was true before the Iran war https://t.co/Do8t8NHSjq
Trump’s War Boast Masks Deep Personal Anxiety
Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears Terrifying & vital reporting here by WSJ https://t.co/6QrFpjORZo
Investment‑Grade CLO Tranches Deliver Positive Returns in Q1 as Treasury Yields Rise
In the first quarter of 2026, investment‑grade collateralized loan obligation (CLO) tranches posted positive returns even as Treasury yields climbed. The performance outpaced investment‑grade corporates, high‑yield bonds, and leveraged loans, underscoring the sector’s defensive qualities amid geopolitical and rate‑driven volatility.
Propose Hormuz Convention to Regulate and Tax Shipping
My take on the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz on @MarioNawfal: "Ideally, there should be something like the Montreux Convention of 1936 that settled the Dardanelles and allowed Turkey to manage the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles and charge fees...
Policy Shifts Set to Accelerate Growth by 2026
MS: We see Fed and fiscal policy, deregulation and fading tariff headwinds all contributing to a growth acceleration in 2026 https://t.co/jEapo33q0x
SBI Forecasts India’s FY27 GDP at 6.8‑7.1% Amid Oil Shock and Geopolitical Tensions
State Bank of India’s research arm projects India’s FY27 GDP growth at 6.8‑7.1% despite a sharp Brent crude rally to $90 a barrel and ongoing West Asia tensions. The outlook builds on FY26’s 7.6% expansion, modest inflation expectations and a...
Germany's Spending Surpasses 50% of GDP, Trending Socialist
Hello from Germany, which is steadily drifting toward socialism. Since 2025, government spending ratio has exceeded 50% of GDP, and the IMF expects it to climb above 52% in the coming years and stay above 51% until 2031. https://t.co/FUGQGYFtQv
Saudi Deficit Swells, Turning Kingdom Into Eurodollar Drain
Saudi Arabia's deficit widened to $25.28 billion in Q4 2025. Instead of being a source of the petrodollars, the kingdom has become a drain on the eurodollar system. https://t.co/JkziRznkyx