Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Apple announced it will begin assembling a portion of its Mac Mini desktop computers at Foxconn’s new plant in north Houston later this year, while maintaining Asian production lines. The move aligns with the company’s broader $600 billion U.S. investment commitment and follows political pressure to mitigate potential tariffs on overseas‑made electronics. Apple’s COO Sabih Khan said the Houston line will serve domestic demand and includes a training center for advanced manufacturing. The shift does not indicate an immediate scale‑down of Asian output.
The on‑shore yuan surged to a 2½‑year high as USD/CNY slipped below 6.90, reaching 6.8954. The People’s Bank of China posted a slightly firmer daily midpoint of 6.9414 and reduced the usual damping in the fixing process. This narrower gap...
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
Today, Trump issued a statement on Truth Social saying "any country that wants to play games with the ridiculous Supreme Court decision... will be met with a much higher tariff." THE TARIFF MAN HAS LOST IT. https://t.co/AA365cmzVQ
Donald Trump’s tenure produced headline‑grabbing pro‑Israel actions, including the Abraham Accords, the Jerusalem embassy move, and the killing of Qasem Soleimani, which were celebrated as diplomatic victories. Yet the article argues that his maximalist, transaction‑focused style has created strategic liabilities for...
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal held a virtual meeting with Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu to revive the stalled India‑Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The dialogue coincides with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming visit to India and...
Section 122 tariffs now being collected at 10%, not Trump's weekend 15%. Clearly, a well-oiled tariff machine here. 🤷🤷 https://t.co/5MjbcrZuXD https://t.co/jb72H2AZQ8
The People’s Bank of China set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9414, slightly above the 6.9249 market estimate. The central bank maintains a +/-2% trading band around this midpoint, allowing modest yuan fluctuations. In parallel, the PBOC injected 526 billion yuan...
Me, in the Financial Times -- On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX 1/ https://t.co/Pc78czuld9
China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced that both the 1‑year and 5‑year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive month. The 1‑year LPR held at 3.45% while the 5‑year LPR stayed at 4.20%, reflecting...
Bangladesh’s food‑grain imports surged 42 percent in the first half of the 2025‑26 marketing year, reaching 4.2 million tonnes, driven primarily by a sharp rise in wheat purchases. Private‑sector wheat imports jumped 31 percent while government imports fell, and rice imports exploded 380 percent,...
After financial commitments fell through, the German government pours €1.3 BILLION into Salzgitter’s green steel project. GERMANY'S GREEN SECULAR RELIGION = KILLING THE GERMAN ECONOMY. https://t.co/gmESJ38qxH
Interesting on many levels. Bessent is much more of a trader (and yet also much more political) than most Treasury secretaries ... https://t.co/7m06uOU5eQ
EU export bans targeting military‑relevant goods after Russia’s invasion were initially narrow, covering only specific product variants. Transaction‑level customs data show three evasion channels: partially sanctioned variants, transit shipments declared en route, and rerouting through third‑country hubs such as Turkey....
2025 delivered the weakest U.S. job growth of any non-recession year in decades. The US job market is NOT as hot as the spinmeister in chief Washington DC cracks it up to be. https://t.co/8bDuyzl0yp
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright urged the IEA to refocus on energy security, coinciding with a federal push to boost oil and gas exports, especially LNG to Europe. The EU, facing record LNG imports and only 30% gas reserves, has...
Kazakhstan’s oil export pathway is under heightened risk as Ukrainian drone attacks cripple the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) loading facilities in Novorossiysk, cutting December shipments by roughly 22 percent. The CPC pipeline, which moves over 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil,...
The Bank of Jamaica cut its policy rate to 5.50% from 5.75%, its sixth 25‑basis‑point reduction since August 2024 and the first cut in nine months. The move was driven by a milder‑than‑expected inflation impact from Hurricane Melissa, improved agricultural supply,...
Inflation is a regressive tax on the poorest people in society, since they only hold cash. Once people have wealth, they can afford and get access to inflation-resistant asset classes (stocks, bitcoin, real estate, etc). Expanding financial access and opportunities globally to...
Global equity indexes show mixed year‑to‑date performance as of February 23 2026. Japan’s Nikkei 225 leads with a 12.9% rise, followed by the UK’s FTSE 100 (+7.6%) and Canada’s TSX (+6.5%). In contrast, India’s BSE SENSEX records the largest decline at –2.3%. The watchlist also...
Anthropic disclosed that three Chinese AI labs—DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and MiniMax—used roughly 24,000 fraudulent accounts to conduct over 16 million interactions with its Claude models, targeting reasoning, coding and tool‑use capabilities. The coordinated distillation attacks extracted large‑scale training data, effectively stealing...
President Donald Trump dismissed reports that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine warned against a war with Iran, insisting any conflict would be easily won. Trump posted on Truth Social that Caine never opposed military action and would...
The BofA fund manager survey has never been this bearish on the dollar. It is time to bite your lip and start being a lonely dollar long. I have a sample size of one here, arguably a sample size of...
The episode examines how renewed U.S. tariff uncertainty, sparked by President Trump's recent statements and a Supreme Court ruling, is rattling markets and leaving business leaders scrambling for clarity on refunds, consumer reactions, and legal strategies. It highlights the contrast...
Mortgage rates dropped into the 5s today because everyone is finally realizing the robots are going to take our jobs. Bittersweet.
The CN Index slipped to 512 this week, keeping global container shipping in the high‑pressure zone while showing incremental easing. Freight rates on major Asia‑US and Asia‑Europe corridors fell, reflecting improved capacity and a more balanced demand environment. Geopolitical tensions,...
India’s 2026‑27 Union Budget earmarked roughly $2.4 billion (₹20,000 crore) for a national carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) programme targeting steel, cement and other heavy‑industry emitters. The funding marks a shift from research‑only projects to a full‑scale industrial strategy, driven by...
U.S. forces are assembling their largest deployment since the 2003 Iraq invasion as diplomatic overtures continue with Iran. Both sides have scheduled talks for Thursday, while Tehran declares openness to dialogue but also readiness for war. President Donald Trump's mixed...
RBA probes monthly inflation gauges but sticks to quarterly trimmed mean; policy shift distant, volatile. Risk: noisy swings. Trade: shorten AUD duration until monthly series confirms trend. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
U.S. solar projects continued heavy reliance on imported silicon panels and cells in 2025, with 33 GW of panels and 21 GW of cells entering the market. Imports shifted toward Southeast Asian suppliers, led by Indonesia, Laos and India, while Ethiopia and...
Kazakh authorities have fined journalists and a media outlet for conducting online polls about the March 15 constitutional referendum, citing violations of the country’s referendum‑survey law. The Prosecutor General’s Office requires pre‑approval for any poll, a rule that has blocked...
President Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba and threatening tariffs on any nation that continues supplying oil, effectively targeting Mexico, Cuba’s primary oil source. In response, Mexico halted its daily oil shipments to Cuba,...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s tariffs, sparking a rally in Chinese equities and the iShares China Large‑Cap ETF (FXI). FXI now trades at a blended P/E of 13.27 and a 2.37% yield, well below the S&P...
Macro: VITL hits 52‑wk low $25.47; -22% Y/Y, -47% 6m. Fundamentals: LTM profit; analyst PTs $44–60. Risks: demand, ERP, guidance cuts. Trade: buy weakness to $44–50. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Analysts label today’s geopolitical rivalry a "New Great Game" pitting the United States against a China‑Russia alliance. The contest spans Central Asia, the Middle East, the Arctic and the Indo‑Pacific, driven by competition for fossil fuels, rare‑earth minerals and strategic...
West African crude traders are slashing discounts as freight rates to Asia surge to a five‑year peak and the Brent‑Dubai exchange‑for‑swaps (EFS) spread widens to about $2 per barrel. The higher shipping costs and broader EFS premium have pushed West...
Technology production (green) * ~50 in 2000 * ~190 today Nearly a 4x increase over 25 years This is the only category with powerful long-term structural growth. It recovered strongly after 2008 and exploded again post-2020. Everything else? Mostly flat. Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (2017...
Trump tariff vendetta picking up. Will all this go to the courts? Supply chain uncertainty.
Kazakhstan’s state‑controlled miner Kazatomprom announced a new contract to supply fresh uranium to India, reinforcing the latter’s nuclear fuel pipeline. The deal follows earlier agreements that delivered 2,100 tonnes in 2009 and 5,000 tonnes between 2015‑19. While exact volumes were...
US House not likely to codify Trump’s 15% tariff. So the tariff will expire after 150 days. What will Trump do then? More Trump unpredictability for supply chains?
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
A tanker chartered by Reliance delivered about 100,000 tons of diesel to Rotterdam, marking the first Indian petroleum fuel cargo to reach the Amsterdam‑Rotterdam‑Antwerp hub since the EU imposed sanctions on Russian‑crude derived products. The vessel, Proteus Bohemia, loaded in India’s...
The S&P 500 looks calm, but look under the hood. Software stocks are DOWN ~30%. Defaults are CLIMBING. Private credit is AT RISK. https://t.co/qJPf95n11Z
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 79.1%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Z869QfIwJT
The OECD’s "Effective Carbon Rates 2025" report surveys 79 countries and compares three carbon‑pricing tools: fuel taxes, explicit carbon taxes, and emissions‑trading systems. By weighting tax level against the share of emissions covered, the analysis shows fuel taxes remain the...
Gold is officially the most popular reserve asset in the world. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/A7A3qj1YGx
A bit more on section 122 -- Adam Tooze noted that the simplest read of "international payments problems" is a problem of global imbalances manifest by large surpluses and large (U.S.) deficits 1/ https://t.co/86nmn36jP7
The USDA reported a record week of U.S. corn export inspections, with more than 2 million tons shipped out of ports during the week ending Feb 19. Japan, South Korea and Mexico accounted for the bulk of the shipments, underscoring strong Asian...
This month the CBO released their first updated budget projection since January 2025. In short, there is no solution in sight to reduce the fiscal deficit. https://t.co/r8ycIrViqQ
The U.S. State Department is withdrawing non‑essential personnel and their families from the embassy in Beirut as tensions with Iran rise. Roughly 50 staff members have been evacuated, though a core diplomatic team remains on site to maintain operations. The...
