Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Germany’s strategic relationship with Russia has unraveled since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trade collapsed, with imports from Russia falling from €36.4 billion in 2022 to €1.8 billion by 2024, while German aid to Kyiv topped €90 billion. Energy dependence vanished as Russian gas, once 55 % of supply, disappeared by 2025, replaced by Norwegian and U.S. LNG. Concurrently, defence spending surged, meeting NATO’s 2 % GDP target and expanding the Bundeswehr to 260,000 troops.
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...
The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
Guinea’s newly elected president Mamady Doumbouya hosted a high‑profile inauguration attended by U.S. officials and a Chinese envoy, underscoring the country’s strategic importance. With roughly a quarter of global bauxite reserves and emerging lithium, uranium and iron‑ore projects, Guinea sits...
Gold ( XAUUSD ) : Macro picture remains the same as told earlier. Current move is simply a small profit taking move before next leg higher , which is common after such quick bullish moves. I remain bullish. 5080s - 5100s looks...
A FoodDrinkEurope survey shows Europe has slipped to third place as a preferred location for food and drink manufacturing investment, behind Asia and North America. Only 31% of CEOs view Europe as attractive, yet 51% still plan to increase spending...
South Korea’s headline unemployment rate hovers around 4%, but a hidden youth recession is emerging as roughly 470,000 young adults are “resting” – neither employed nor job‑searching. Hiring for entry‑level positions has fallen for three consecutive years, with large firms...
If you missed my client post November 26: "Sell The Rumor of Consumer Cyclical Slowdown; Buy The News." Or December 12: "ROTATION & RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS" Or January 6th: "2025: METALS ARE THE NEW OIL 2026: BOOMER STOCKS ARE THE NEW INFLATIONARY ASSETS" HALO has...
🚨 Trump State of Union Tonight. The Yen Is Collapsing. Pay Attention Dollar surging across the board Yen crashed 1% overnight as Japan's PM fights the BOJ on rate hikes Dow broke below the 50 SMA for the first time this year -...
The article "WHAT'S GOING ON UNDER THE COVERS?" teases an investigative look at hidden dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. It promises visual data, likely through the featured graphic, to uncover trends that aren’t immediately visible. While the full text isn’t...
Passive and thematic ETFs are funneling large inflows into market‑cap‑weighted indices, disproportionately boosting the biggest and most volatile stocks and creating a systemic risk that may outpace liquidity. In Canada, strategist Michael Green warns that this distortion decouples prices from...
Britain announced its largest sanctions package to date, targeting Russia’s oil pipeline operator Transneft and adding nearly 300 new measures. The package, timed with the fourth anniversary of the invasion, also sanctions 48 oil tankers linked to Russia’s shadow fleet...
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...
The Australian newspaper cited the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to challenge One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 annually and achieve net‑zero immigration. The PBO‑based analysis estimates a $100 billion loss in federal revenue over the next decade,...
The global labor market is split, with layoffs in some sectors while major firms aggressively recruit abroad. Visa restrictions and talent shortages at home are driving companies to expand overseas hiring hubs. Google announced a 20,000‑employee campus in Bangalore, effectively...
Ukrainian bitumen imports held steady in 2026, following a record‑high 190,000 tonnes in 2025 after a 111,700‑tonne year‑on‑year jump. Major suppliers from Poland and Lithuania, led by Orlen, plan to ship roughly 100,000 tonnes this year, while Orlen Lietuva targets about 550,000 tonnes...
China’s state‑owned and private firms have built a maritime logistics empire spanning 133 ports in 67 countries, turning the global ports network into a new geoeconomic battleground. The United States, European Union and Australia are mounting legal, regulatory and acquisition‑based...
The U.S. administration did not send a single representative to the official commemoration events marking the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nor did it issue a single word through its embassy in Kyiv -- not even a standard...
Egyptian state‑owned NCIC announced the award of its latest fertilizer sales tender on 19 February, covering March loading. The tender granted 20,000 t of DAP at $750/t FOB, 25,000 t of TSP at $560/t FOB, 20,000 t of granular urea at $492/t FOB, 20,000 t...
European governments are stepping up to shield Ukraine from a U.S. push for a rapid peace settlement that would require territorial concessions. While Washington seeks a quick ceasefire, the EU has increased military aid by 67 percent in 2025 and approved...
RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said India’s per‑capita income growth has outpaced overall GDP growth, driven by a sharp slowdown in population growth. From $274 in 1981, per‑capita income reached about $2,700 in 2024 and is projected to hit $4,346...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump lacked authority to impose the emergency “Liberation Day” fashion tariffs, reducing the import levy to a baseline 10 percent with a possible rise to 15 percent. While the headline cut offers short‑term...
Mexico’s exports to the United States reached record levels last week, yet the country’s trade surplus with its northern neighbor contracted. Analysts attribute the paradox to a strategic reconfiguration of Mexican supply chains, increasingly funneling production toward the U.S. market...
The United States stopped collecting tariffs that had been invalidated under emergency authority, while President Trump announced a sweeping 15% global tariff that exempts Canada and Mexico but hits Europe hard. Panama reclaimed two strategic canal ports after a court...
Is Copper a Prudent Short? Next to its industrial commodity and inflation companions -- iron ore, Brent crude oil and Chinese Government 10-year Bond yields (CGBs) -- copper might be too hot. From a base of 100, starting with our iron...
TANKER RATES for chartering vessels to carry crude (or other dirty products such as fuel oil) have surged to the highest for more than three years as the United States and Iran edge towards war. The Baltic Exchange dirty tanker...
The United States has activated a 10% tariff on all imported fashion goods, marking the first phase of former President Trump’s global levy program. Industry analysts warn that a further increase to 15% is possible, intensifying cost pressures across the...
Slovakia announced it will halt emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine until Kyiv restores Russian oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline. The move follows a dispute over the pipeline’s shutdown after a Russian drone strike and accusations that Ukraine is delaying...
The Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. Six justices agreed on this point but divided on the reasoning, with one side invoking...
The U.S. Government can’t operate without it. Global economy can’t function without it. And Wall Street can’t trade without it. Yet most people have no idea what BlackRock actually does. Here’s how BlackRock built a $10 trillion empire that quietly controls everything:
Bank of America sees the U.S. dollar gaining strength if geopolitical tensions with Iran intensify. Rising odds—now 69%—of a U.S. military strike by June could push oil prices higher while global equities weaken, a combination that traditionally benefits the greenback....
EUR/USD neutral; testing 50‑day SMA/61.8% fib at 1.1769. Momentum weak after brief post‑SCOTUS dollar selloff; tariff uncertainty persists. Insight: short below 50‑day SMA to 1.1670–1.1650. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Yesterday, Ukraine turned on Slovakia and Hungary. Ukrainian operatives blew up the main node of the Druzhba oil pipeline that supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil and 86% of Hungary's oil. UKRAINE = TURNS ON TWO MEMBERS IN NATO. https://t.co/ItvWWCVJb5
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 86% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA NEEDS DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/HI0TlTBYyv
Countries and export options other than the US. Trump flat tariff. Will importers front load like before? Five years and continuing supply chain importance.
The personal savings rate in the US averaged 4.5% in 2025. History since 1959... https://t.co/umS9AR2N61
What will Trump do with tariff that expire in 150 days? What next? What are China’s countermeasures? What will supply chains do now? After these tariffs expire? Prepare or react?
My views in @FortuneMagazine on President Trump’s tariffs: “Contrary to President Trump’s assertions, trade deficits are not produced by foreigners ripping off Americans. Trade deficits are produced by Americans spending more than they produce." https://t.co/LtaB5SgFSN
“I recently spoke with experts at the International Monetary Fund, who put the problem bluntly: China is simply too big to keep exporting its way out of its own internal malaise.” @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/nsBIj0UbEq
It takes two incomes to buy a house in modern America, with last year having another sharp increase. Chartbook Top Links of the day is here: https://t.co/Up3SU7RW5f
Turkey's "core" current account deficit (blue) has widened back out to levels that exceed where it was before the 2018 "sudden stop" and the catastrophic post-COVID years. Turkey is back in the danger zone. Rebalancing can't happen with Erdogan in...
Yen Slides on a Double Whammy: The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese...
The $USD is mostly little changed. The focus is on $JPY. Beijing stepped up export restrictions to ostensibly curb Tokyo's remilitarization and PM Takaichi reported pressed BOJ harder not to raise rates. See https://t.co/kOoSATxYUA https://t.co/1osffkrwvk
Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm
The number of core goods in the PCE basket with >2% inflation is clearly on the rise https://t.co/zfnw5c3Qnr
Norway central bank seen delaying the next rate cut to the 3rd quarter https://t.co/DQxoj354TR via @ottummelas https://t.co/jKYdw66YUF
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: While the US builds tariff walls, India opens doors. India has just revised its tax treaty with France and lowered dividend taxes for investors. https://t.co/CWxHPKVvRY
Huawei’s revenues surge to US$127 billion as it continues to defy US sanctions Wait, thought controls were "working"?... https://t.co/fueavLdQgI
