Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
S&P 500 Surpasses 7,000 as Iran Cease‑Fire Sparks $28 B Inflow and TINA Revival
Wall Street pushed the S&P 500 above the 7,000 mark after an Iran cease‑fire, prompting a $28 billion net inflow into U.S. equities and a resurgence of “There Is No Alternative” (TINA) positioning. The rally, driven by easing geopolitical risk and strong earnings expectations, marks the index’s first close above 7,000.
Global Banks Brace for 1974‑Scale Oil Shock as Policy Space Shrinks
Global banks are confronting an oil‑price shock of a magnitude not seen since 1974, raising credit‑risk concerns and squeezing central‑bank policy levers. The surge threatens loan portfolios, inflation outlooks and the ability of regulators to support growth.
Eliot's Return & Schrodinger's Strait | Shield of the Republic
In this episode of Shield of the Republic, Eric Edelman and strategy veteran Elliot Cohen dissect the unfolding Iran‑U.S. conflict, focusing on President Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the strategic missteps that...
What to Know About Tariff Refund Site That's Set to Go Live Monday
U.S. Customs and Border Protection will activate the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal on Monday, allowing importers to file refund claims for tariffs the Supreme Court deemed illegal. The Court of International Trade ordered the Treasury to...
Oil Prices Jump After Strait of Hormuz Setbacks
Oil markets surged about 6% on Sunday as the United States and Iran escalated tensions, prompting a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose to $95.42 a barrel and WTI to $89.77, reflecting fears of constrained tanker...
S&P 500 Rebounds From 7% Loss to +4.5% YTD
On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, the 12th worst start to a year in history. After one of the biggest 3-week rallies ever, it's now up +4.5% YTD and above the average year at this...
Gold Falls over 1% as Dollar Strengthens, Oil Surge Fuels Inflation Fears
Gold prices slipped more than 1% on Monday, with spot bullion falling 1.4% to $4,762 per ounce and June futures down 2% to $4,782. The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, which makes gold costlier for holders of...
How Oman Is Converting Geopolitical Instability Into Permanent Strategic Architecture
Oman is turning recent geopolitical turbulence—particularly the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and the Hormuz crisis—into a catalyst for long‑term strategic infrastructure. Muscat has fast‑tracked expansions at the deep‑water port of Duqm, added new free‑zone incentives, and secured multimillion‑dollar...
"The Foundations Of Dollar Dominance Are Weaker than Anticipated..."
Economist Barry Eichengreen argues that the dollar’s dominance, while still covering about 60% of global foreign‑exchange reserves, is on a secular decline due to weakened U.S. political institutions, soaring public debt, and a lack of coherent foreign‑policy strategy. Recent safe‑haven...
NZ, India Set to Sign FTA Despite Labour Calling Rush ‘Reckless’
New Zealand and India will sign a Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement in New Delhi next Monday, instantly removing tariffs on 95% of New Zealand timber, lumber, pulp and paperboard shipments. The deal makes 57% of NZ exports duty‑free at launch,...
Market, Rupee Fortunes May Prove Fickle Amid Iran Flareup
India’s equity markets are poised to extend recent gains despite renewed geopolitical tension after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude back toward $100 a barrel. The Sensex and Nifty have risen over 5% since early April, while...
The Weekly Finger: Records, Realities, and a Two-Headed Beast
The US equity market has entered its 3.5‑year bull run, delivering a 99.2% gain and prompting record outflows from money‑market funds as investors chase momentum. A Financial Times report flags a looming global food crisis, with 363 million people at risk...
The Money Supply Is Surging
The author argues that a secular bull market in precious metals began in April 2024, driven by a rapid expansion of the global money supply. U.S. M2 has surged by roughly $2 trillion, a 10% increase since its October 2023 low, coinciding with...
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
Labor Market Narrative Misleading; Data Stale Since September
It IS a remarkable collapse and strengthening of the labor market narrative… unfortunately it’s likely untrue. September is the last date updated for the QCEW revisions. https://t.co/7r6efCCpeo
PwC’s Jason Morris Says Deal Market Fails to Convert Intent Into Closed Transactions
PwC’s global M&A leader Jason Morris warned that the current deal market is battling to turn intent into completion, with many announced transactions stalling. The slowdown threatens investment‑banking fee revenue and could reshape deal‑making strategies.
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 40, Tops 99% Historic Levels
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX https://t.co/uhUt33SCp5
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
IMF Warns US Debt Surge Erodes Treasury Safety Premium, Threatens Emerging Market Financing
The International Monetary Fund warned that the rapid rise in US debt is compressing the safety premium of Treasury bonds, pushing up global borrowing costs. The erosion could trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, tightening financing conditions for those economies.
Three LNG Shipments Stalled, Pakistan Faces Heat‑driven Blackouts
There are at least *three LNG shipments* stuck in the Persian Gulf that are supposed to go to Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data 🇵🇰🚢 Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment in over a month due to the Hormuz closure. That risks...
Fertilizer Costs Surge 53%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/XaN1isYjSt
Markets Brush Off IMF Caution over Iran Shock
Investors shrugged off IMF warnings about a prolonged Iran war, pushing the S&P 500 past 7,000 and sending Brazil’s Bovespa to fresh highs. Latin American issuers returned to the market, highlighted by Brazil’s record €5 bn ($5.9 bn) Eurobond and a wave of...
US Weakens, China and Russia Gain Power Post‑War
My view on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran w/ @MarioNawfal: "In the Great Geopolitical Game, one great power is going to become weaker: the United States. And two great powers are going to become stronger: China and Russia."...
Hormuz Traffic Normalization Odds Plunge to 23%
According to Polymarket, the probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of April is FALLING LIKE A STONE. It is now 23%. TRUMP = A PRESIDENT OF FOREVER WARS. https://t.co/nt979qNG1g
GBP/USD Slides to 1.3525 as Mixed UK Data and Middle East Tensions Boost Dollar
The pound slipped about 0.25% to near 1.3525 after mixed UK economic releases and escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East lifted safe‑haven demand for the US dollar. The move underscores the tug‑of‑war between uneven British growth and global risk...
Iranians May Be Behind Pre‑War Crude Trades, Not Washington
Can you imagine if its actually the Iranians........ Everyone thinks it's Washington insiders trading Crude Oil right before significant price moving news connected to the war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz.
Dollar Climbs as Middle East Tensions Close Hormuz
JUST IN: US dollar surges amid escalating Middle East conflicts, with the Strait of Hormuz shut.
ECB Inflation Dilemma Spurs Rate‑Hike Speculation, Pressures Eurozone Bond Yields
The European Central Bank is weighing a rate‑rise despite inflation staying above target, prompting markets to price in higher yields for Eurozone sovereign bonds. With energy‑price shocks and a looming recession, policymakers face a tightrope between curbing inflation and sustaining...
CAPE Refunds Illegal Tariffs; 56k Importers Register
Monday, April 20, 8 am ET US program (CAPE) to refund the now-recognized as illegal tariffs will begin. Some 56k companies--importers of record--have reportedly registered. The largest importers (e.g., #WMT, #COST, #TGT, #AAPL,#AMZN, and #FDX) (1/4)
Diesel Prices Jump $1.75/Gallon, Outpacing Gasoline as Middle East Tensions Hit Supply
U.S. diesel prices surged $1.75 per gallon, outpacing gasoline's $1.11 rise, as heightened Middle East tensions choke tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The gap reflects diesel’s commercial demand elasticity and thin global inventories, signaling higher freight and logistics...
Incendiary Inflation
The Labor Department reported a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise in March CPI, the highest pace in two years and the sharpest monthly jump in four years. Gasoline prices surged 21% in a single month, underscoring volatile energy costs. Since President Biden...
ADB Forecasts GDP to Rise 7.6 Percent on Semiconductors
The Asian Development Bank raised its 2024 GDP forecast for Taiwan to 7.6% as demand for advanced semiconductors surges amid the global AI boom. The projection, 3.6 points higher than its December estimate, outpaces growth expectations for all other advanced...
China’s ‘Incentives’ Are ‘Poison’: Official
Taiwanese officials warned that Beijing’s ten newly announced “incentives” for tourism, hotels, food and agriculture are “sugar‑coated poison,” designed to co‑opt local industry groups and advance political goals. The measures were unveiled on April 12, coinciding with KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li‑wun’s...
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Data Light but the Escalations in the US/Iran War Make Talks on Tuesday Unlikely Along with...
U.S. forces seized an Iranian‑flagged vessel in the Straits of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to reject President Trump’s peace‑talk claims and signaling a likely postponement of negotiations. Brent crude surged 7% to $96.85 a barrel while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.9%, reflecting...
211. How One Small American Manufacturer Is Dealing with Trump's Tariffs
In this episode, host Chad Bowne visits Clearview Corporation, a small Massachusetts maker of chair cushions, to explore how the firm navigated the wave of Trump-era tariffs on Chinese textile imports. Co‑owner Sam Cooper explains that the company relies on...
Sheepmeat Export Update March 2026
Australian sheep‑meat exports slipped 24% year‑on‑year in March 2026 to 42,656 tonnes, falling below the five‑year average. The United States emerged as the strongest market, posting a 21% increase and accounting for about 18% of total shipments. Exports to China fell...
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
What Drives the Administration’s Trend GDP Forecast?
The White House’s 2026 GDP outlook projects a growth path that outpaces the Wall Street Journal’s median forecast and an error‑correction model anchored in historical GDP‑population trends. The administration attributes the upside to an accelerated labor‑productivity rate of 2.9% annually,...
Prabowo Praises Putin for Oil Aid Amid Iran War
My take on Indonesian President Prabowo’s statement on Putin: @MarioNawfal: “According to Prabowo, Putin is playing a positive role in the Iranian war affair because he is supplying countries like Indonesia with oil and gas." https://t.co/wGOTQHe1fg
Oil Rising Again as US, Iran Fire on Commercial Traffic While Peace Talks Are Disputed
U.S. forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard exchanged fire on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting geopolitical tension in the region. The confrontations pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel and WTI near $90,...
Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Futures Fall as US-Iran Tensions Flare up Again to Shutter Hormuz
U.S. stock futures slipped about 0.4% on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz sparked fresh geopolitical risk. The escalation followed a U.S. Navy seizure of an Iranian vessel and Tehran’s abrupt shutdown of traffic through the...
Argentina Ranks Fifth Most Miserable; Milei's Inflation Promises Fail
#ARGWatch🇦🇷: In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Argentina ranks as the FIFTH MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. Just as I've predicted since day 1, MILEI HAS FAILED TO CRUSH INFLATION. https://t.co/2Zjd0vmAun
Middle East Oil Pricing Is Cracking Under Pressure
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown has crippled the Platts Dubai benchmark, forcing Platts to cut its deliverable basket from five grades to just Murban and Oman, a roughly 40% reduction in pricing coverage. Thin liquidity and concentrated trading, highlighted by...
Revisiting Labour Supply Trends Across Countries
Recent research shows that the once‑wide gap in hours worked between the United States and other advanced economies has roughly halved by the late 2010s. While U.S. labor‑supply fell after 2000, driven largely by the expansion of non‑employment benefits such...
Rebalancing the Chinese Economy
China is shifting its growth model from an investment‑ and export‑driven engine to a more consumption‑focused, high‑tech economy. Over the past decade the investment share of GDP fell from 47% to 41%, while consumption rose to about 57% of output....
Iran’s Instability and the Gulf’s Indispensability
The ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict pits Iran’s instability‑driven strategy against the Gulf Arab states’ model of economic indispensability. Iran’s proxy network has been crippled by the 12‑Day War and setbacks in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, limiting its ability to leverage chaos...
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi shows the probability of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by May 15 slipping to 37 %, down from earlier optimism. The market also priced a 5.9 % jump in June Brent crude futures, reflecting heightened geopolitical tension. The...
European Gas Futures Jump 11% Despite Lower Overall Prices
European natural gas futures rise 11% after Iran closed Hormuz (again) 📈📈 No LNG shipment has been exported from the region since the war in Iran began in late-Feb Still, prices are down from the highs last month. This is partly due...
Another Airline Cancels Flights for Disturbing Reason
Airlines are slashing routes as jet fuel prices hit record highs following the Strait of Hormuz closure. Delta, Air Canada and KLM have each trimmed dozens of flights, while Aer Lingus announced the cancellation of 500 flights, roughly 2% of...
Mark Carney Calls Canada's US Ties a Weakness
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that Canada’s close economic ties to the United States have become a strategic “weakness” as the country prepares for a series of high‑stakes trade negotiations later this year. His comments followed sharp criticism from...