Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Coal India has endorsed a phased rollout of the National Coal Exchange, aiming to move coal trading from traditional e‑auctions to a regulated electronic platform with market‑based price discovery. Executive Director V S Maharaj emphasized that reforms must be calibrated to protect energy security, noting that Long‑Term Fuel Supply Agreements will continue to anchor stability for thermal power generators. The exchange will introduce a many‑to‑many trading model, using confidential double‑sided bids to determine market‑clearing price and volume under Coal Controller oversight. Industry experts predict lower prices in a surplus‑supply environment, but stress the need for robust logistics and regulatory safeguards.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath met Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam to deepen ties in infrastructure, innovation, skill development and sustainable growth. The discussion highlighted the recently upgraded India‑Singapore Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and aimed to channel Singaporean expertise and capital...
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
The Australian government is closely tracking new iron‑ore pricing arrangements being trialled between Chinese buyers and major Australian producers. Companies such as Fortescue and Rio Tinto have begun using Fastmarkets, while BHP negotiates with China Mineral Resources Group over alternative...
Bangladesh’s February 12 election gave the Bangladesh Nationalist Party a decisive parliamentary super‑majority, easing short‑term political uncertainty. The win clears the path for a long‑awaited constitutional referendum that could reshape the legislature, judiciary and prime‑ministerial term limits. Fitch Ratings notes that...
Panama's government announced the seizure of two strategic ports along the Panama Canal, citing national security and revenue concerns. The move follows a series of regulatory actions aimed at tightening state control over critical infrastructure. Officials indicated that the ports...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, prompting President Trump to issue an executive order that imposes a 10% global tariff under Section 122, with a possible...
Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced a 2026 GDP growth projection of 2.5%‑3.5%, raising expectations beyond the 2%‑3% range slated for 2025. The forecast follows a 3.5% expansion in 2025, the strongest pace since 2021, underscoring a robust post‑pandemic...
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
The history of home prices when rates ranged from 2.75% to 18% during this period. https://t.co/I0aE7X40Jt
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
From which countries did the US import solar panels in 2025? #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/50iShtuhwp
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
Foreign stocks are beating US stocks and the dollar is weakening, yet foreigners bought $1.4 trillion in US securities last year. The selling wave everyone is talking about isn't showing up in the data. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yXliX9IMIO
China’s Ministry of Commerce escalated economic pressure on Japan by adding 20 Japanese firms to its export control list and another 20 to a watch list, targeting dual‑use items. Foreign Minister Wang Yi intensified rhetoric, accusing Japan of harboring ambitions...
Stocks & the dollar hang in the balance amid tariff chaos and possible war with Iran as President Trump delivers his State of the Union speech. Are the markets in trouble? #SOTU2026 #Trump #tariffs #Iran #market #stockmarkets #DOLLAR #Macro #Trading https://t.co/PVSRBaRIjl
AUD/USD remains trapped in a tight 0.7040‑0.7070 range as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of Australia's 3.85% policy rate against looming Australian CPI data. The pair failed to break the 0.7100 resistance, keeping bullish momentum at bay despite a resilient...
Global renewable‑energy investment hit a record $386 billion in 2025, driven by offshore wind and small‑scale solar in emerging markets. In the United States, clean‑energy funding slumped sharply in Q4, falling 36 percent after the Biden‑era EV tax credit was eliminated, resulting...
President Donald Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on most imports, revising his earlier 15 percent target. The move follows a Supreme Court decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose such duties. Experts...
Big law trade attorneys are experiencing a flood of client inquiries after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated key Trump-era tariffs. The ruling enables importers to seek refunds, prompting firms like Quinn Emanuel to launch a dedicated tariff‑refund litigation task force....
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
The Erdmann Housing Tracker notes that core inflation—excluding rent—has now been tracking a 2% trend for roughly three and a half years. This prolonged alignment suggests price pressures are stabilizing outside the rental sector. The brief also hints at deeper...
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
Hong Kong announced a concerted push to become a premier international gold trading hub, aligning with China’s goal to expand its market share and influence on global bullion prices. The city plans to increase gold storage capacity to over 2,000...
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to address the Australian Parliament, signalling a push toward a Canada‑Australia critical minerals partnership. His recent World Economic Forum speech urged medium powers to forge new alliances, a message that provoked a sharp...
The Bank of Thailand raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.9%, up from 1.5%, after a stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter performance. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn stressed that tighter coordination between fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is essential to move the economy toward...
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The US Supreme Court rebuked President Trump’s broad tariff authority, prompting a 10% across‑the‑board duty that replaces the 30% reciprocal tariff South Africa faced. The reduction levels the playing field for SA exporters, while gold surged to a three‑week high...
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
The U.S. Treasury announced cyber‑related sanctions on four individuals and three entities, including parties in Russia and the United Arab Emirates. The measures target those involved in acquiring and distributing malicious cyber tools that threaten U.S. national security. The sanctions...
The container shipping sector is poised at a critical juncture in February 2026 as vessels tentatively resume the Red Sea corridor amid lingering military threats. At the same time, a deep structural oversupply of container ships is squeezing already fragile...
Australia’s January consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, a slight dip from December’s 3.8%. The forecast includes a Trimmed Mean CPI of 3.3% YoY, unchanged from the prior month, highlighting persistent core inflation. The Reserve Bank of...
The European Union is reviewing its Arctic policy, and a tighter definition could unlock the Barents Sea’s estimated 22 trillion cubic feet of gas. Norway’s offshore fields could then supply 20‑30% of EU gas demand through 2050, offering a lower‑emission alternative...
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
My view in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump's tariffs: "Only 181,000 total jobs were created in the US last year, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Contrary to the Spinmeister-in-Chief, tariffs are, when it comes to jobs, a flop." https://t.co/LtaB5ShdIl
The Indian government has approved a limited export of 25 lakh metric tonnes of wheat and an additional five lakh tonnes of wheat products, despite the overall export ban remaining in force. The decision, taken in January and notified by...
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "With the tariff gun at their heads, the Tariff Man asserts that he can force them to sign on the dotted line, even if it is under duress." https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that recent hikes in National Insurance contributions and the accelerated rise in the national living wage have hit young workers hardest. Youth unemployment rose to 16.1% in Q4 2025, the highest level...
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
My views in @FortuneMagazine on Pres. Trump’s upcoming State of the Union: "The use of tariffs as threats and leverage is nowhere to be found in Dale Carnegie’s 1936 classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.” https://t.co/rfie6YbkBa
The United States will provide on‑site passport services in the West Bank settlement of Efrat on Feb. 27, marking the first time American consular officials have operated inside an Israeli settlement in the occupied territory. The move targets tens of thousands...
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
Tariffs, trade and transatlantic divergence Dr Linda Yueh unpacks inflation splits, Europe’s structural challenge and a landmark US court ruling https://t.co/0yboLoVlmp
"Trump’s Tariffs Are Adding Steel Mill Jobs, and Crushing American Factories" https://t.co/EdQKmnKPzv You guys will never believe this, but heavily taxing a vital manufacturing input isn't good for manufacturing. https://t.co/6IRvgAXzPH
EU sees the US easing impact of metals tariffs in the coming weeks https://t.co/qG2gkI6D64 via @AlbertoNardelli @europressos https://t.co/QmBgb5eFOv
GS: Consumer Confidence and Labor Differential Increase The survey’s measure of 12-month ahead inflation expectations edged down by 0.1pp to 5.5%. https://t.co/lrWMlf1pcR
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
