Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
India Growth Resilient, Markets Near Correction: HDFC Securities
HDFC Securities projects India’s real GDP to grow about 6.5% in FY 26‑27, with nominal GDP expanding 10‑11%. Inflation is expected to ease to roughly 4.5% and the fiscal deficit to hover near 4.3%, while capital spending could account for 32% of total FY 27 outlays. The report notes $18 billion of foreign‑portfolio outflows in FY 26 and highlights robust retail participation, with over 222 million demat accounts and SIP inflows equivalent to $3.6 billion annually. It concludes the market may be at the bottom of the current correction, offering selective long‑term opportunities.
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
European Stock Markets Fall and Oil and Gas Prices Jump 5% as Strait of Hormuz ‘Chaos’ Worries Investors – Business...
European equities slipped on Monday as renewed chaos in the Strait of Hormuz reignited geopolitical risk, pulling the FTSE 100 down 0.4%, the German DAX 1.3% and Italy’s FTSE Mib 1.1%. Oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent climbing 5% to $95.60 a...
Malacca Strait Vessel Traffic at Record Levels in 2025
The Strait of Malacca and Singapore recorded a historic 102,525 vessel transits in 2025, surpassing the 100,000‑transit threshold for the first time. Traffic of ships over 300 gt rose 8.72% from 2024, averaging 281 reports per day to Klang VTS. Container...
UK Foreign Minister Cooper Cuts Short Diplomatic Tour
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper abruptly ended her diplomatic tour, returning from Japan early and cancelling a scheduled speech in Tokyo. The move comes amid a brewing scandal over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the UK ambassador to the United...
Trump Orders US Navy to Seize Iranian Cargo Ship, Escalating Strait of Hormuz Tensions
President Donald Trump announced the US Navy seized the Iranian‑flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman, blowing a hole in its engine room and taking the vessel under Marine custody. The action deepens the blockade of the Strait...
5 Big Energy Stories - 4.20.2026: Here We Go Again
Oil markets surged as the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly opened and closed, pushing Brent crude into the mid‑$90s and WTI back into the high $80s. President Trump’s mixed signals—promising a cease‑fire with Iran while threatening to destroy its power infrastructure—added...
US Bill Targets Georgian Port as NATO Ramps Up Defence Supply Chains
Congressmen Joe Wilson and Steve Cohen have introduced H.R. 7668 to assess and counter Chinese and Russian penetration of Georgia’s strategic Anaklia Deep Sea Port, a choke point for rare‑earth supply chains. At the same time, Latvia’s foreign minister warned that...
Credit Crunch: Saturna’s Drum on Sukuk Growth, Geopolitical Risk
In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FIC Focus, host Noel Hebert talks with Patrick Drum, fixed‑income lead at Saturna Capital, about the rapidly expanding sukuk market – the Islamic‑compliant bond universe now exceeding $1 trillion in issuance. Drum outlines the market’s...
LMEs Fall as Fed Rate Hikes Reverse Trend
"As the Fed began raising rates in 2022, LMEs increased as companies faced higher borrowing costs ... That trend is now reversing. Over the past nine months, LMEs have declined." -Apollo Slok
Hormuz Crisis Chokes Tropical Timber — Asian Panel Prices Jump 15%
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked the flow of tropical timber from West Africa and South America, prompting Indian wood panel makers to raise prices by 5‑15 % and Malaysian factories to report that nine in ten firms...
Arsenic Spike in Salween River Tied to 127 Myanmar Mines, Threatening Thailand’s Border Communities
Independent testing by Chiang Mai University researchers uncovered alarming arsenic levels in Thailand’s Salween River, linking the contamination to 127 suspected mines in Myanmar’s basin. The findings raise public‑health alarms for riverside communities and pressure regional authorities to address unregulated mining...
Oil Shock Muddies Rate Path, but Loonie Seen Gaining Ground: TD Economics
TD Economics warns that renewed oil market turbulence is reviving inflation risks, keeping bond yields above pre‑crisis levels and clouding the path for central‑bank rate cuts. The firm expects the Canadian dollar to benefit from a narrowing US‑Canada rate gap,...
Shipowners Bullish on Dry Bulk Prospects
Berge Bulk CEO James Marshall and Seanergy Maritime CEO Stamatis Tsantanis said the Capesize dry‑bulk market is set for strong earnings, with daily freight rates expected to exceed $50,000 in the second half of the year. They highlighted a structural...
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Under the Lens as Index Hits Fresh Record High
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to a fresh record on April 15, spurring analysts to evaluate Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO). With a 0.03% expense ratio and exposure to AI‑driven mega‑caps, VOO remains a top choice, though renewed tensions in...
Who’s Actually Running Iran?
In a Substack podcast recorded on April 16, 2026, Iran scholar Abbas Milani dissected the hidden power structures of the Iranian theocracy, questioning who truly controls the regime. He evaluated whether a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and...
PBOC Sets Yuan Midpoint at Weakest Since April 13, Signaling Continued Depreciation
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a daily midpoint for the yuan that is the weakest since April 13, reinforcing a trend of depreciation. The move is expected to ripple through emerging‑market currencies and affect global trade pricing.
India and China Wall Off Border Rows to Focus on Trade and Security
India and China held their first bilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) consultations in New Delhi, signaling a cautious reset in relations. The talks deliberately compartmentalised border disputes, enabling progress on trade, security and multilateral diplomacy. While roughly 60,000 troops remain...
Trump Announces U.S. Negotiators to Fly to Pakistan for Iran Talks Amid Strait of Hormuz Standoff
President Donald Trump announced that a U.S. delegation will travel to Pakistan on Monday for a second round of face‑to‑face talks with Iran. The move comes as Tehran accuses Washington of “maximalist” demands and the Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens...
Trump’s Approval Slumps to 37% as War Drives Oil Above $90 and Gas Near $4
A new NBC News Decision Desk poll puts President Donald Trump’s approval at 37%, the lowest point of his second term. The dip follows a war‑driven surge in crude oil to over $90 a barrel and U.S. gasoline hovering just...
Iran Keeps Strait of Hormuz Shut, Blames U.S. Blockade Amid Rising Oil Prices
Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, accusing Washington of a naval blockade that is choking oil shipments. The disruption is already inflating fuel prices in Kenya and rattling European equity markets, while diplomatic talks in Islamabad stall.
Kenyan Fuel Prices Spike as Hormuz Disruption Squeezes Stocks, Gold Slides on US‑Iran Tensions
Kenya’s Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi warned that limited fuel stocks – 138,623 mt of petrol for just 16 days – are under pressure after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove global pump prices higher. At the same time, spot...
US Captures Iranian Ship Touska Amid Mediation Efforts: All We Know
The U.S. military seized the Iranian‑flagged container ship Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored repeated warnings to turn back. A guided‑missile destroyer fired on the vessel’s engine room, and U.S. Marines boarded and captured the 294‑meter ship....
BIS Chief Urges Global Coordination on Stablecoin Regulation
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) chief Agustín Carstens called for coordinated international policy on stablecoins, warning that fragmented rules could undermine financial stability. The appeal comes as regulators worldwide grapple with the rapid growth of algorithmic and fiat‑backed digital assets.
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID-Level Severity
EM "outflows have been almost as bad as during COVID, i.e. they’ve been massive." -Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro
Warsh's AI‑Productivity Pitch Meets Fed Colleagues' Resistance
Kevin Warsh rode an AI-productivity argument to Trump's Fed chair nomination. He says the boom will hold down prices and let the Fed cut rates. The pitch has run into a public wall of opposition from his future colleagues before...
Thanks to Government Policy, Your 60/40 Portfolio May Not Cut It Under Stress
Canadian government bond yields remain low at roughly 3.4% despite mounting fiscal deficits, climate‑tax initiatives and regulatory burdens that mirror the United Kingdom’s recent policy path. In the UK, 10‑year gilt yields have risen to about 4.9%, a level that...
Trump Admin Starts Returning $166 B in Revoked Tariffs
Today the Trump administration finally begins returning more than $166 billion (plus interest) collected from the tariffs the President imposed starting last year. The Supreme Court struck down those tariffs two months ago. by @TonyRomm & @AnaSwanson https://t.co/wpfqjsFTU5
Trump’s Market‑soothing Rhetoric Threatens Iran Leverage
Trump should stop saying things just to calm markets that either don’t reflect real life or he has zero intention of following through on. If he gives up the blockade he loses his leverage against Iran.
Maybe It Wasn’t Such a Hot Idea to Turn Libya Into a Failed State: 2026 Shortages Edition
Europe faces imminent jet‑fuel shortages as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, forcing the bloc to look again at North African supplies. Libya, once a reliable source of 1.65 million barrels per day of light crude and sizable gas exports, has...
US and Europe Must Forge New Alliance to Survive
The only hope that either the US or Europe has of surviving the current geoeconomic moment is to create a new type of alliance by @RanaForoohar https://t.co/oIiiYPepz5
Turkish Operator Pasifik Eurasia Establishes First-Ever Aegean-China Rail Link
Turkish rail operator Pasifik Eurasia dispatched a 50‑container block train from Izmir to Shanghai, establishing the first direct Aegean‑China rail link. The service travels the Middle Corridor, crossing the Caspian Sea and Central Asia before reaching China. Historically, 90% of...
_1.jpg)
Iran MP Plans for Strategic Management of Strait of Hormuz Using the Rial
Iran's parliamentary infrastructure commission chair announced a proposal to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz by banning Israeli‑linked and "hostile" vessels and requiring all permitted ships to pay guidance and security fees in Iranian rials. The plan also allows...
What Really Drives China’s Massive Trade Surplus
China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, the largest in its post‑reform era. The surplus is less a product of industrial policy than a structural savings‑investment gap amplified by an aging population and tight credit for private firms....
François Villeroy De Galhau: One Year on - Why the Transatlantic Partnership Remains of Mutual Interest
In a speech to the Atlantic Council, French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau highlighted that the global economy proved more resilient than expected over the past year. Global growth reached 3.4% in 2025, outpacing the 2.8% forecast, while...
Kontali: Salmon Sector in Slowdown as Supply Tightens, Trade and Demand Dynamics Shift, and Tensions Rise in Middle East
Kontali analysts warn that the Atlantic salmon industry is entering a supply-constrained phase as harvest‑ready biomass declines in Norway, Chile and Scotland. At the same time, demand is becoming more price‑sensitive, pushing producers toward product innovation and promotions. Europe’s market...
BOJ Likely to Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged in April - Report
Japan’s central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April policy meeting, as uncertainty from the Middle East conflict weighs on decision‑making. Traders currently assign only about a 15% probability to an April hike, though odds climb...
Airfares, Petrol Pumps, Rent: Inflation to Jump Due to Iran War
The UK Office for National Statistics is set to report CPI inflation of 3.3% for March, up from 3% in February, as the fallout from the Iran‑US conflict lifts fuel costs. Petrol prices are projected to rise 6.5% and diesel...
Potential Impact on European Inflation, Stay Open‑minded
It could be nothing, or it could be significant, for inflation in Europe. At this point, I think it's worth keeping an open mind. https://t.co/48mNR7PmNZ
Oil Prices Jump On Renewed US-Iran Tensions
Oil prices surged over 5% on Monday as U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks stalled, pushing Brent crude above $96 a barrel and WTI futures to $87.80. The dollar strengthened to a one‑week high while the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, tightening global...
‘Friendship to All’ No Longer Good Enough for Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s long‑standing "friendship to all" doctrine is no longer sufficient in a multipolar world where major powers vie for strategic advantage. The article argues that Dhaka must shift from passive non‑alignment to a proactive, multi‑aligned approach that leverages its geographic...
Polaris Global Equity Composite Q1 2026 Commentary
Polaris Capital’s Global Equity Composite posted a 5.91% net return in Q1 2026, outpacing the MSCI World Index, which fell 3.47%. The rally was fueled by energy and information‑technology stocks as the Strait of Hormuz closure spiked oil and fertilizer prices....
China Presses IMF for Quota Reform, Better Surveillance of Advanced Economies
China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng urged the IMF to act as a bulwark against rising unilateralism, calling for stronger surveillance of fiscal risks in major advanced economies and a faster quota‑share realignment. He warned that protectionist policies and geopolitical...
Why Gas Prices Go Up Fast and Take So Long to Fall
Gasoline wholesale prices surged 39.6% in a week, pushing the rack price to $3.35 per gallon and prompting station owners to raise retail pump prices by roughly 34% to $3.88. The cost of a full truckload for a typical New...
Labour Warns Signing India Trade Deal Would Be ‘Recklessly Irresponsible’
New Zealand and India are poised to sign a free‑trade agreement on 27 April in New Delhi, but the deal faces political headwinds at home. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the FTA is a "tremendous opportunity," yet Labour leader Chris Hipkins warns...
Can a US-Governed ‘Pax Silica’ Hub Turn Philippines Into a Chip Powerhouse?
The United States is set to establish a 4,000‑acre “economic security zone” in the Philippines, operating under US common law, as the flagship hub of the Pax Silica initiative. The AI‑native investment acceleration hub is designed to move the country up...
Oil Flows to Lag Even if Hormuz Strait Reopens
The Strait of Hormuz, which moves roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas, remains largely shut after Iran tightened control following a U.S. blockade. Even a temporary reopening will not instantly restore flows; analysts estimate an eight‑to‑twelve‑week lag for tanker...
Unemployment Could Reach 2.1 Million as Conflict Persists
The EY Item Club predicts UK unemployment could rise to 2.1 million, or 5.8%, by next year as the Iran war drives oil prices higher and strains supply chains. The surge in energy costs is expected to shave economic growth to...
China Voices Concern over US Seizure of Iranian Cargo Ship, Urges Further Talks
China’s foreign ministry voiced concern on Monday over the United States’ forced interception and seizure of the Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel Touska in the north Arabian Sea. The U.S. Navy fired on the ship after it attempted to breach a blockade...
USDJPY Erases Friday's Losses on Renewed US-Iran Tensions as Ceasefire Deadline Nears
The USDJPY pair erased Friday's losses as U.S. President Trump reaffirmed the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting traders to hedge ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. The pair bounced off the 158.00 support level, with buyers targeting the 162.00 handle,...