Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Delcy Rodriguez Is Like Javier Milei but Worse
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank announced cooperation with President Delcy Rodríguez’s government, unlocking roughly $5 billion in Special Drawing Rights that have been frozen since 2019. The U.S. Treasury also issued a license permitting American banks to conduct transactions with Venezuela’s central bank and several commercial banks. These moves signal a modest easing of financial sanctions and open new channels for external financing. However, the relief comes amid ongoing political uncertainty and a fragile macro‑economic environment.
US‑China Stockpiling Fuels Copper Price Surge
The entire copper industry has just returned from last week’s leading copper conference in Chile (CESCO), with participants, including the world’s largest copper traders, even more bullish that all-time-high copper prices could be tested over the coming weeks. It’s become...
Treasurys Hold Gains as Oil, Stocks Flash Mixed Signals
Oil prices jumped to their strongest level in four years as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude markets into turmoil. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 5‑year, 10‑year and 30‑year benchmarks posting...
‘Hormuz Moment’ Could Herald Decline of US Dominance: Citic Securities Analysts
Citic Securities analysts argue that the ongoing Iranian blockades in the Strait of Hormuz signal a "Hormuz moment" that could erode U.S. strategic dominance, drawing a parallel to the United Kingdom’s 1950s "Suez moment." They note that the United States...
Robot Wins Beijing Half Marathon
A Chinese‑made Honor robot won the Beijing half‑marathon, completing the 21‑kilometre course in 50 minutes 26 seconds—far faster than last year’s 2‑hour‑40‑minute winning time. The top three finishers operated fully autonomously, relying on onboard sensors, cameras and AI for navigation and...
Postponing the World’s Financial Winter – For How Long? Iran’s MAD Standoff with the Rest of the World
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure and seize its oil, prompting Tehran to warn it will shut down OPEC oil and gas flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff is framed as an economic version of...
Navigating the Energy Shock: Ken Griffin of Citadel on Geopolitics and the American Brand
At the Semafor World Economy summit, Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could spark a global recession within 6‑12 months, underscoring an acute energy price shock. He highlighted the United States’ relative...
Markets on Hold Pending US–Iran Talks, Warsh Fed Chair Hearing Next Catalyst
Traders are sitting on the sidelines as they await confirmation on a second round of US‑Iran talks before the April 22 cease‑fire deadline, leaving equities, currencies and the dollar in a neutral stance. Oil prices have retreated below the $100 per...
Asian Hedge Funds Suffer 10% March Loss as Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates
Trivest Advisors' TAL China Focus Fund posted a 10.2% loss in March, its steepest decline ever, as the Iran‑Israel war rattled Asian markets. The fund, managing $5.4 billion, joins a wave of regional hedge funds that saw double‑digit drops, underscoring heightened...
First Global Fossil‑Fuel Exit Summit Set for Colombia, Over 50 Nations to Attend
Over 50 nations are slated to meet in Santa Marta, Colombia, on April 28‑29 for the inaugural global conference on fossil‑fuel exit, co‑hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands. The gathering brings together producers and consumers representing roughly one‑fifth of global...
Yen Slides as BoJ Rate‑hike Hopes Fade, USD/JPY Tests 159.86
MUFG analyst Teppei Ino reported that the Japanese yen fell sharply as market expectations for additional Bank of Japan rate hikes evaporated, sending the USD/JPY pair to a brief high of 159.86. The move underscores a broader shift in risk...
Oil Prices Surge to $90 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Hit Global Markets
Oil jumped to $90 a barrel and U.S. gasoline averaged just above $4 per gallon after Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the Strait of Hormuz. The move has reignited fears of supply disruptions, pushing energy commodities to new highs...
As the Hormuz Crisis Exposes ‘Fragile’ Global Supply Chains, How Will China Respond?
China’s top economic planner, Zheng Shanjie of the NDRC, warned that the US‑Israeli strikes on Iran and the resulting disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz expose the fragility of global supply chains. He said China had already...
A US Tech Agenda Focused on Latin America to Outcompete the People’s Republic of China
The Atlantic Council workshop in Bogotá highlighted Colombia’s rapid tech growth and its increasing reliance on Chinese investment. In 2024 Colombia attracted $513 million in venture capital and saw Chinese firms secure over $3.1 billion in infrastructure contracts, while U.S. tech investment...
The CAPE Tariff Refund System Is Here. Is Your Global Trade Team Ready?
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system on April 20 to electronically refund $166 billion in tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. The platform will serve more than 330,000 importers and...
France Joins EU Sanctions Pressure on Israel
France and Sweden have aligned with five other EU members to push a sanctions package targeting Israel, focusing on a ban of products originating from Israeli settlements. The informal proposal references a June 2025 European Commission assessment that the EU...
Energy Crisis Spurs Global Push for Remote Work
The resurgence of Iranian oil‑tanker blockades in the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices sharply higher, prompting governments worldwide to seek energy‑saving measures. European officials are now recommending at least one mandatory remote‑work day per week, while more than...
Introducing Dynamic Competition in the Middle East
The article outlines Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 as a sweeping reform agenda that goes beyond flagship giga‑projects to overhaul the kingdom’s competition policy and digital infrastructure. By strengthening property rights, digitizing economic registries and revamping the 2019 Competition Law, Saudi...
Volatile ME Peace Negotiations Leave Shipping in Limbo
Negotiations between the United States and Iran have stalled, with Tehran rejecting further talks and accusing Washington of breaching the cease‑fire. The uncertainty has left the Strait of Hormuz in limbo, prompting Bimco to advise carriers to avoid the area...
Funds Dump Brent as US‑Iran Talks Spur Price Dip Expectations
Brent sees fund sales as diplomacy intensifies Investors realised profits from bullish long positions and started to accumulate bearish short ones last week, anticipating a further fall in Brent prices as the United States and Iran conducted face-to-face talks to find...
China Can Fund Payroll Cuts without Harming Benefits
There is obviously resistance to any move to changing the structure of taxation in China, but I would note a couple of things: 1) a holiday on payroll contributions (or a big cut) need not lead to fall in benefits; the...
Hormuz Shut Again as Iran Warns Ships Face Attack
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any vessel attempting to transit will be targeted. The move follows reports of U.S. attacks on several ships in the area, including a tanker,...
China's Structural Advantage, Not Tactics, Drives US‑China Trade
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧'𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In my latest piece for @FortuneMagazine , I argue that many CEOs and boards are asking the wrong question about the U.S.-China relationship. They are waiting for a "breakthrough" at...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Iran’s seizure of a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz sparked a 50‑basis‑point drop in futures and a 6% rally in oil, while Asian equity markets posted broad gains, led by SoftBank (+5%) and Hynix (+2%). The week’s earnings calendar...
China's Xi, in Call with Saudi Crown Prince, Calls for Strait of Hormuz to Remain Open
Chinese President Xi Jinping told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the Strait of Hormuz must stay open for normal ship passage. The call comes as the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire strains after Washington seized an Iranian cargo vessel. China, the world’s largest...
The Peace Rally Gets Derailed
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with the vital waterway largely shut after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship. Oil prices are climbing and global stock markets are wobbling as U.S.–Iran negotiations stall, despite President Trump’s team...
One Year In: How Medtech Companies Are Coping with Tariff Challenges
One year after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, the EU and other partners, medtech firms are still feeling the financial sting. Unlike pharma, device makers have not reshored at scale, opting instead to absorb costs and...
India’s Core Sector Growth Contracts 0.4% in March 2026
India’s Index of Eight Core Industries slipped 0.4% year‑on‑year in March 2026, reversing the 2.8% gain recorded in February. The decline was driven by sharp falls in fertiliser, crude oil, coal and electricity output. The index, which covers about 40% of...
Carney’s Weekend Remarks Highlight His Rapid Tilt Toward China
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, declared that Canada’s deep economic integration with the United States has become a “weakness” that must be corrected. The remark follows his high‑profile...
Afghan Rail Imports Are Booming, but Transit Is Still Barely a Thing
Afghanistan’s rail freight volume jumped 39.1% between March 2025 and March 2026, moving more than 6.1 million tonnes of goods. Imports drove the surge, with the Hairatan terminal alone handling 4.2 million tonnes of oil, wheat, cement and other commodities. Exports and transit together...
Stock Market At Record High as Iran Crisis Deepens
U.S. equities closed at a record high on April 17, even as Iran’s hardliners kept the Strait of Hormuz closed and a U.S. Navy vessel seized an Iranian cargo ship. The S&P 500 set a speed record for its rally, driven largely...
Quarter of a Million People Could Lose Job by Middle of 2027 as UK ‘Flirts with Recession’, Analysis Says
A joint analysis by EY’s Item Club and Deloitte warns that the UK could lose up to 250,000 jobs by mid‑2027 as the country “flirts with recession” after the US‑Israel war on Iran disrupted oil supplies and spiked energy costs....
The Daily Feather — A Change Is Gonna Come
The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high as markets cheered an Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire and the declaration of a fully open Strait of Hormuz, easing shipping‑route worries. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told investors that stable initial jobless claims...
Soybeans May Touch $12.39, But $9 Likely
$12.39 Soybeans Could Mark 2026 High Soybeans have been between $9.36-$12.39 a bushel since the start of 2024, recently revisiting the upper end due to the Iran war. Sustaining above $12 may require an unlikely combination of WTI crude oil staying...
Unending Iran War Could Stall Global Growth to Zero
My take on what would happen to world economic growth if the Iran war continues unabated @MarioNawfal: "My guess is that world growth would sink from the IMF projected 3.1%/yr to pretty close to zero, maybe even negative." FOREVER WARS = FROM...
Fashion Sector Rejects US Excess Capacity Claim
The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) has publicly challenged a U.S. trade investigation that alleges excess capacity in the fashion supply chain. AAFA warned that the claim could become a pretext for imposing additional tariffs on apparel, footwear and...
Populist Pro‑Tariff Rhetoric Fails Against Manufacturing Economics
"These [pro-tariff] arguments carry populist appeal, but they falter when confronted with the economics of manufacturing and the realities of global supply chains."
Wall Street Remains Calm Amid Iran Naval Blockade
The U.S. Navy is actively blockading Iranian ports. The $VIX is at 17.21. The $SPY is at all-time highs. Either Wall Street has priced in the geopolitical risk perfectly — or this is the most complacent market since 2007. History rarely rewards this level...
Iran War: Talks Kiboshed, U.S. Seizes Iranian Tanker, Leaks Confirm Mad King Claims
The United States seized an Iranian cargo tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to cancel a planned delegation to Islamabad for talks with Vice‑President J.D. Vance and other officials. President Trump’s erratic public statements and internal White House...
China Weaponizes Rare‑earth Magnets Amid US‑Japan Tensions
China. Reduces rare earth magnet exports to US and Japan. Why? A topic for Xi-Trump meeting. Counter oil supply drop from Iran? What else may China do?
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Silver Outpaces Gold, Hinting At
$SLV surged 6.5% in a week to $80.78 — outperforming $GLD. Silver has BOTH the monetary metal bid AND industrial demand tailwinds. When silver outperforms gold this aggressively, it's usually telling you something about where the economy is heading. https://t.co/SPn2igYPIv
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Geopolitical Tension Holds Market; One Headline Could Flip It
Monday setup: - Xi calls MBS overnight to open Hormuz (China is cracking) - Iran "maybe" talks round 2 in Islamabad - IRGC won't give up fissile material (deal killer) - SPX -50bp, NQ -40bp into the open One headline flips this market either way....
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
China's Q1 Grain Imports Rebound, yet Lag Recent Highs
🇨🇳China’s Q1 2026 grain imports rebounded sharply on the year but remained below the bigger volumes seen in recent years. Still, it's a supportive trend for exporters. However, soybean and pork imports weren't quite as robust as in Q1 2025. https://t.co/NEI8MRwGDR
Oil's 10% Crash Signals Deflationary Shock
$CL_F crashed 10% in a single session — April 17. WTI fell to $84, down from a $110 peak. One day. 10%. Oil. That's not noise — that's a deflationary impulse hitting the macro backdrop at full speed. https://t.co/ju4e7ZBacD
Tariff Rhetoric vs Reality: American Seat Cushions Suffer
As Soumaya and I researched our book, companies kept describing a disconnect between what the President said about tariffs and their everyday reality. I visited Fall River, Massachusetts to see exactly how made-in-America seat cushions were being caught up in Trump's...
Closed Strait Triggers Global Supply Shortages and Food Price Surge
The economic impact of a closed Strait increases. Time delay. Supply shortages. Prices. Helium? Sulfur? Fertilizer—as planting season begins? Then it will be food scarcity and prices. More.