Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Britain has placed sanctions on New Zealand‑based Maritime Mutual Insurance Association and its Gibraltar affiliate, accusing them of insuring dark‑fleet tankers that transport Iranian and Russian oil. The measures include an asset freeze and the disqualification of company directors. Maritime Mutual has categorically denied the allegations. The sanctions reflect heightened enforcement of sanctions compliance in the maritime insurance sector.
Zambia will establish a “rainy day” stabilisation fund to lock away surplus copper revenues as production hits record levels and prices hover near historic highs. The Treasury plans to finalise the fund’s framework this year before beginning deposits, using the...
Container carriers on the India‑Europe and Mediterranean lanes have raised February spot rates sharply, reflecting heightened seasonal booking demand and constrained vessel capacity. Forwarder data show spot asks climbing $400‑$500 per TEU since January, pushing average prices from Nhava Sheva/Mundra...
On February 5, the United States and Argentina signed a bilateral agreement that goes beyond tariff cuts to align trade, investment, and national‑security priorities in critical minerals and energy. The pact obliges Argentina to facilitate U.S. investment across the entire...
Severe congestion at Kenya's Port of Mombasa is disrupting East Africa's coffee trade, with major exporter Sucafina warning of missed shipments and rising costs. Truck queues, customs bottlenecks, and limited empty‑container depots have left vessels idle and cargo handovers delayed....
Managed‑money funds have begun easing their long‑standing short stance in wheat, reducing a net short of 97,370 contracts (13.2 million tonnes) after buying back 26,772 contracts in the week to February 17. The spring wheat market remains the most heavily shorted, with...
The U.S. announced a preliminary 126% counter‑vailing duty on certain solar imports from India, sending Waaree Energies and Premier Energies shares sharply lower—Waaree down 10% and Premier down 6%. Both companies said they have diversified supply chains and ongoing US...
European carbon prices have slumped from over €92 to about €72 per tonne, eroding the financial incentive for low‑carbon fertilizer production. The author highlights a stark price contrast by purchasing five kilograms of Russian NPK fertilizer for €6.60, underscoring how...
Genpact’s supply‑chain chief warns that escalating tariff volatility is driving firms to diversify suppliers and shift toward regionalized networks by 2026. Pandemic‑era investments in control towers and risk‑monitoring tools have equipped shippers to react quickly without external advisory projects. Companies...
Japanese chemical giants such as Mitsui Chemicals and Sumitomo Chemical are scaling back their China operations and redirecting capital to India. Investment in China dropped 46% year‑over‑year in 2024, while the number of Japanese sites in India rose to 5,205,...
The 2026 Gold Rush Risks a 2025 Bitcoin-Like Bust - At almost 3x, gold has never sustained a greater stretch vs. its 120-month moving average with inflation so low. The graphic highlights a historic oxymoron for the traditional haven: its...
There's lots of buzz about 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4%. But when you look at this yield vs US peers - hedging those yields back into US Dollars - the US picture isn't nearly so sanguine. The days when...
Russian oil drilling contracted 3.4% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, with a sharp 10% drop in the second half of the year. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker Urals crude price and a stronger ruble, which...
Australia’s Gorgon‑linked LNG exporter sent a cargo aboard the Maran Gas Hector to eastern Canada, covering roughly 16,000 miles – the longest route for Australian LNG to date. The move reflects a sharp slowdown in Asian demand, where shipments to...
China signaled it will weigh counter‑measures after the United States imposed a temporary 15% tariff on all imports, while urging Washington to cancel unilateral duties and resume frank trade talks. A new IISS study warned that ongoing anti‑corruption purges have...
China has stepped in to purchase Russian crude that India declined, pushing Russian oil exports to their highest levels in two years. The shift has concentrated buying power among a few Asian importers, driving the Urals‑grade discount to a multi‑year...
President Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to unilaterally raise tariffs, prompting legal challenges that culminated in the Supreme Court’s 6‑3 ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump. The Court held that IEEPA does not grant the president authority...
Saudi Arabia has appointed Fahad Al‑Saif as minister of investment, signaling a pivot from pure capital accumulation to a focus on total factor productivity. Foreign direct investment inflows have surged from roughly $3 billion in 2019 to $22‑28 billion today, while outbound...
Nepal's soybean oil exports to India surged more than tenfold in 2025, reaching a record 694,153 metric tons and generating over $1 billion in revenue. The growth was driven by duty‑free access under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, allowing Nepal...
India is launching a ₹77,000 crore programme to build a domestic merchant fleet and expand shipbuilding, aiming to cut its reliance on foreign vessels that handle more than 90% of imports and exports. The plan prioritises ship construction, port upgrades, and...
New technologies enable small countries and mid‑size regions to out‑pace megacities as testing grounds for AI‑driven governance, renewable energy, and bio‑industrial innovation. Examples from Estonia, Uruguay, Kansas, and Singapore show rapid prototyping of digital services, local energy grids, and agri‑tech...
China didn’t compete. It demolished entire industries through one ruthless strategy: build massive scale, use subsidies and currency manipulation, export at prices no one can match. Furniture, Solar Panels, Telecom Infrastructure, Textiles, Toys, etc. Gone. And 10 more industries are already under attack. My...
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union emphasized tariffs, massive investment and a “golden age” narrative, while omitting climate and LGBTQ issues. The travel and tourism industry, especially in Europe, interpreted the rhetoric as a potential cost increase and...
I can't remember--who was the president 10 years ago? That Administration's decision to grant permits for LNG exports was a boon for the domestic O&G industry while also helping U.S. and European security by reducing dependence on Russian energy exports.
Also, it's nice to see the Treasury Secretary openly admit the new Section 301 investigations will be reverse-engineered to justify new tariffs. Not even a hint that the investigation might go negative. It's all just a pretext. https://t.co/HDwm3f4gpE https://t.co/U1olE8kLdE
The United States hosted its first Critical Minerals Ministerial in February 2026, unveiling a preferential trading bloc, price‑floor mechanisms and a $12 billion strategic stockpile to curb China’s dominance. At the same time, a US‑backed consortium struck a $9 billion deal with...
The US has 3,960 data centers, more than the next 14 countries COMBINED. MASSIVE capital buildout. MASSIVE electricity demand. https://t.co/2CnR0GW60v
"In the name of both prosperity and world peace there are few steps that we could take which would contribute more than a complete move toward free trade." -- Milton Friedman https://t.co/5HsJX8FJPm
India has unveiled a revamped Consumer Price Index, shifting the base year from 2012 to 2024 and overhauling the basket composition and weighting methodology. The new series shows a headline retail inflation of 2.75% in January 2026, markedly lower than...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated by over 50% against the USD in the past year. KIM JONG UN'S ANTICS = CURRENCY CATASTROPHE. https://t.co/mODtL8ocdu
I wrote a short blog on the future of the UK’s Single Trade Window on the back of last week’s FT article co-authored by @pmdfoster /1 https://t.co/b4rmt3AXzu
The Nikkei Stock Average closed at a record 58,583.12 points, up 2.20% as investors cheered the nomination of two new Bank of Japan policymakers viewed as dovish. The yen briefly slipped past the 156‑yen level before retreating, while the broader...
JPY reversing weaker HUF gaining (on negative polls for Orban) CNH continues to rally consistently
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Home Depot reported a 13% drop in Q4 net earnings to $2.6 billion as a stalled housing market curtails home‑improvement spending. CEO Ted Decker said consumers lack confidence, delaying large projects despite low mortgage rates and ongoing price cuts in new...
The Yen is heading back to where it was before the "rate check" from the NY Fed. Intervention doesn't work, especially when the underlying issue is a massive debt overhang and politicians who prefer denial to taking hard, but needed...
Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs: The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn...
India will revise its GDP series on Feb 27, moving the base year from 2011‑12 to 2022‑23 to better reflect digital services, renewable energy and post‑pandemic consumption patterns. The overhaul introduces double‑deflation accounting, the Proportional Denton method for quarterly‑annual alignment, and...
Turkey had sustained reserve losses towards the end of last year (blue), even though Lira was falling and USD was weak. That's a sign that depreciation pressure is substantial, a reflection of the large current account deficit. Same old story...
The main development today is the reaction to the two dovish nominations to the BOJ board. The yen and JGBs have been sold, while Japanese stocks raced to record highs. Note there are many large option FX...
Sarah Hunter explained that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) defines full employment as the highest sustainable job level compatible with low, stable inflation. She highlighted the intrinsic link between labour market balance and the RBA’s price‑stability mandate, noting that...
"Mine is bigger than yours" "Mine is better than yours" "My Central Bank appointee is more dovish than yours" says Japan PM #Takaichi to #Trump after she picked 2 #reflationist candidates #forex $USDJPY #USDJPY
Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the ECB before her term ends, paving the way for Klaas Knot to succeed her as president, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/rjUbI1zZMG via @jrandow https://t.co/aOgFWMclPG
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains...
Bank of America show the biggest positive allocation to #euro assets on record in an impressive global rebalancing. A net 22% say they hold a lower-than-benchmark allocation to US, from just 6% at end of 2025. The backlash appears to...
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Ramadan celebrations continue, but soaring prices leave many in Libya struggling. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 56.3%/yr. THE WEST'S REGIME CHANGE, WITH THE DECAPITATION AND REMOVAL OF GADDAFI = DESTROYED LIBYA. https://t.co/velLOmEvbM
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that Canada faces deep structural shifts as U.S. protectionism, rapid AI adoption, and demographic aging reshape the economy. He noted the central bank kept its policy rate at 2¼ % while highlighting heightened uncertainty around...
The United States delivered a formal diplomatic warning to Kyiv after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export gateway for Kazakh crude that underpins American oil majors' interests. The attack disabled a single‑point mooring,...
