Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Jennifer Kavanaugh revisits her 2023 argument that U.S. military aid creates a trade‑off between Israel and Taiwan, noting the calculus has shifted. She now warns that the United States’ own depleted air‑defense munitions and other materiel are the primary constraint, as ongoing shipments to Ukraine, Israel and other partners erode domestic stockpiles. The interview stresses that without replenishing these inventories, America risks insufficient protection for its forces and for allies such as Taiwan. The discussion highlights a strategic dilemma: balancing foreign assistance with maintaining a credible U.S. deterrent.
In February 2026 the U.S. Air Force faced F‑35 radar delays because gallium supplies were blocked by China, prompting the launch of Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical‑mineral reserve backed by the Export‑Import Bank and private investors. Unlike the historic...
The European Commission is consulting on revised state‑aid rules that will replace the current framework before it expires on 31 December 2026. The proposal, embedded in the General Block Exemption Regulation, streamlines approvals and exempts climate‑related aid under €30 million per firm or...
President Donald Trump claimed the United States received over 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, a figure far exceeding reality. Vortexa ship‑tracking data shows U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil totalled about 17.7 million barrels, roughly 300,000 barrels per day, in January and...
My positioning & stance update on Gold , Dollar , US indexes & Bitcoin 🧵
The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced it will approve third‑party applications to resell Venezuelan crude and refined products to Cuba. Transactions must follow the same conditions as U.S.-authorized sales to Venezuela's state oil firm, including depositing...
Four years after Russia’s 2022 invasion, the conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate, with Russia controlling roughly one‑fifth of Ukrainian territory and both sides suffering up to 1.8 million casualties. Civilian deaths exceed 15,000 and millions remain displaced, while reconstruction...
A virtual “Trade Winds” event on March 11, 2026 gathered top economists and policymakers to assess the resurgence of Western industrial policy. Speakers outlined a growing toolbox—including procurement preferences, subsidies, and public‑private partnerships—driven by competitiveness, innovation, and economic‑security concerns. The measures aim...
The Trump administration announced an "America First" investment drive that has secured more than $5 trillion in pledges from foreign governments for projects across defense, technology, energy and infrastructure. The deals are framed as reciprocal arrangements, linking tariff relief to partner...
A recent webinar examined the evolving economic partnership between the United States and Japan, highlighting trade, investment, and supply‑chain dynamics amid shifting global patterns. Experts discussed how post‑pandemic realignments and technological change are reshaping bilateral ties. The dialogue also addressed...
Interact Analysis projects global manufacturing output to grow 2.9% in 2026, up from 2.0% in 2025, with an average annual rate of 3.1% through 2030. Asia emerges as the strongest region, delivering 3.2% growth and a $30.1 trillion output, while India...
At the CARICOM summit in St. Kitts and Nevis, leaders denounced U.S. interventions, highlighting a de‑facto oil blockade on Cuba and pressure on the island’s medical‑mission exports. Prime Minister Terrance Drew described severe shortages of food, water and electricity, while...
Saudi Arabia’s largest oil shipper, Bahri, provisionally chartered five very large crude carriers as daily charter rates neared $200,000, the highest level since 2020. The vessels are slated to move Saudi crude to Asian markets, chiefly China, in the coming...
British Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is leading a diplomatic push to embed the United Kingdom in the EU’s new “Made in Europe” procurement framework. The effort follows a stalled attempt to join the €150 billion Security Action for Europe...
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
Are the RUSSOPHOBES in Europe still buying Russian oil? The answer is YES. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/EGIEz4CjE2
Timor‑Leste is leveraging its recent ASEAN membership to accelerate a sustainable tourism strategy that showcases its pristine marine and mountainous assets. By joining ASEAN, the nation gains access to regional marketing channels and co‑branding opportunities, allowing it to present itself...
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on Trump’s world view: “[Trump] says ‘I will not be constrained by law or by convention or by any of the international institutions’… ‘I have the right to destroy countries.’ ” https://t.co/Bs2ZRsJMLL
Gold and silver pumping tells us money is moving to safety. That’s simply the current appetite of investors. Crypto still trades like is a risk asset. Long-term I’m bullish. Short-term, you need to start respecting where we’re at in the cycle.
Germany's Bundestag will vote on a hydrogen acceleration law that expands eligible infrastructure to include carbon‑capture‑and‑storage (CCS) based hydrogen production. The amendment also adds import facilities for power‑to‑liquid fuels such as synthetic aviation fuel. Projects designated as "overriding public interest"...
Since October 2022, China’s gold reserves have SURGED by 260%. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/ot9Q5fMQ8n
EVERCORE: “.. Trump has not emphasized the $2,000 ‘tariff rebate’ checks since earlier this year, suggesting that at least for now this has fallen off the agenda ..” 😔 https://t.co/EN0kaph84R
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions on 12 tankers and their owners that have shipped hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products. The designations also include nine individuals and entities in Iran,...
I don't think the world is ready for the reality that the great solar boom wasn't as cost-efficient as everyone thought. And actually, in a round-about way, was probably predominantly subsidised by growing Western indebtedness, at the cost of middle-class...
BNY Mellon’s senior strategist Eric Hundahl outlined the investment landscape for 2026, emphasizing opportunities across emerging markets, technology, and sustainable assets. He highlighted that easing inflation and stabilizing fixed‑income yields are creating a more favorable risk‑adjusted environment. Hundahl also warned...
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America are urging clients to buy Venezuelan global bonds that carry large amounts of unpaid interest, known as accrued coupons. The banks argue that these distressed securities could deliver outsized returns if Venezuela...
People seem to have forgotten that workers are consumers. Rising real wages is pro worker too, even if some tasks get replaced.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is championing a “NATO First” agenda and a defence budget of 3 percent of GDP, aiming to raise spending by about $23 billion a year. The Conservatives, now in opposition, echo the 3 percent target for 2030 and suggest shifting...
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
According to the World Bank, computer & information services exports account for nearly 5% of India’s GDP and generate roughly 7% of India’s employment. NO WONDER PM MODI IS SO POPULAR. https://t.co/aWyUaxVmlL
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council issued an opinion supporting the EU Council’s proposed candidate, Boris Vujčić, for the next Vice‑President. Vujčić, currently Governor of the Croatian National Bank, will assume the role on 1 June 2026 for a non‑renewable eight‑year term,...
U.S. courts have struck down President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff authority, prompting a revised global tariff of 10%. The ruling has forced Japanese hobby retailers AmiAmi, Aitai Kuji, and Hobby‑Genki to hold or delay shipments to the United States. Both...
OPEC+ likely to restart supply hikes The oil glut is looking more like Y2K Still, OPEC+ increases will probably be cautious. https://t.co/XT9I0sGhYp #Oil #OPECPlus #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Shale
Applied Materials agreed to pay a $252.5 million penalty to the U.S. Department of Commerce, settling 56 export‑control violations involving illegal shipments of ion‑implanting equipment to China’s SMIC. The settlement also requires two internal audits of the company’s compliance program, and...
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the 2026‑27 budget will lower tariffs only after a detailed sector‑by‑sector review of protection duration and domestic capacity. She emphasized removing the fear of a “tariff wall” while avoiding rushed cuts that could harm...
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark rate to 1.0 % on February 25, 2026, a 25‑basis‑point reduction from 1.25 % and the lowest level since October 2022. The move was unexpected, coming after a similar cut in December and reflecting a revised outlook...
Just when you think it can’t get worse we got Cintrini appealing to Zandi “stats”
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...
You can begin factoring national interests and power factors into your preferred free market analysis or you can be a victim of it. https://t.co/bDXsO4Jd8A
The U.S. Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump struck down President Trump’s expansive tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The majority opinion, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, held that the president cannot wield unlimited...
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest...
China warns about US trade probe. And tariffs. Will there be another trade war? And what then for supply chains?
Russia's finance ministry announced plans to lower the cut‑off price that triggers the transfer of oil revenues into the budget reserve fund. The move aims to channel more of the declining oil proceeds into the $56 billion reserve to protect it...
I imagine no one in Ottawa is in a great rush given the tariff chaos post Supreme Court ruling and the great deal Canada is getting right now -literally the lowest effective tariff rate in the world (possibly by accident...
Japan’s LNG resales hit a record in fiscal 2024, surpassing the volume imported from any single supplier. Declining domestic consumption, driven by nuclear restarts, efficiency gains and renewable growth, has pushed utilities and trading houses to redirect surplus cargoes to...
USTR: Courts will tell about tariff refunds. US collected the tariffs. Why are they not stepping up on refunds?
U.S. Trade Representative Greer announced the administration will keep tariffs on Chinese imports between 35% and 50%, matching the levels set under the Trump administration. The U.S. does not plan to raise rates beyond this range and aims for continuity...
Crude oil rallied to $65.89 per barrel this morning as concerns over a potential Iranian conflict resurfaced, while the Canadian dollar held near 65.89 U.S. cents. In the grain sector, canola futures slipped to C$690.20 a tonne, pressured by a...
How China’s 5-year energy plan could change the way it powers its economy Beijing will prioritise energy security through large-scale projects and greater regional self-reliance, as risks mount at home and overseas https://t.co/HwoETxozqe via @scmpnews
After the Tariff Blizzard, Are You Ready for the Next Storm? - https://t.co/syg5yLFZmi @joinindago #TrumpTariffs #IEEPA #SupremeCourt #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics #tradecompliance
