Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
How Badly Is the Russian Economy Doing?
Russia’s economy appears to be in deep decline, with official statistics showing negative growth and Swedish military intelligence warning that the country’s budget deficit can only be closed if Urals crude stays above $100 a barrel for a year. The intelligence community also alleges systematic manipulation of GDP data to mask the strain of war spending and sanctions. In response, the Central Bank cut its policy rate to 15%, leaving a real interest rate effectively at zero given inflation estimates of 13‑15%. Forecasts from Bofit suggest modest growth of about 1% this year, rising slightly next year, but higher oil prices alone cannot resolve the structural challenges.
Rising Money Supply Fuels Precious Metals Surge and Inflation
The U.S. and global money supply is growing at an alarming rate, driving the precious metals bull market and contributing to persistently high inflation.
LNG Has Killed Australia
Australia has moved to introduce a gas reservation policy intended to secure domestic LNG supplies, a shift that could reshape the nation’s export landscape. The policy’s principle has been accepted, but its detailed design remains unsettled, leaving exporters uncertain about...
Is the Iran War Hurting the US Economy? Markets Eye Retail Sales Data
Markets reacted cautiously after the U.S. and Iran broke their cease‑fire, with oil prices spiking and equities, bonds and gold slipping. Traders noted a rapid drop in S&P 500 futures volume, the lowest since early April, indicating uncertainty over policy direction....
Recapping - NZD Rises After CPI Beat as Markets Price Higher Odds of May RBNZ Rate Hike
New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 0.9% in the March quarter, leaving annual inflation at 3.1%—still above the Reserve Bank’s 1‑3% target. The surprise pushed the market’s implied probability of a May RBNZ rate hike to roughly 45%, up from...
Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and PMIs Set to Drive US Market Mood This Week
Investors will watch this week’s retail sales report, initial jobless claims and flash PMI data as the market gauges consumer strength and labor market resilience. The backdrop includes a potential US‑Iran diplomatic flare‑up and a Senate hearing by Fed nominee...
M&A Volume Surges as $68B Universal Music Bid and $45B McCormick Deal Lead Rebound
Global dealmaking value rebounded this week, spurred by Pershing Square's $68 bn bid for Universal Music Group and McCormick & Co.'s $45 bn merger with Unilever's food portfolio, signaling renewed appetite for large transactions after the Iran conflict.
April Inflation to Breach 5%, Erode Recovery Gains, Says UA&P
University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) projects Philippine inflation to exceed 5% in April, driven by an oil‑price shock linked to the Middle East conflict, matching the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) outlook. The breach would push full‑year inflation...
PH Dollar Deficit Swells to over One-Year High on Middle East Crisis
In March 2026 the Philippines recorded a $2.6 billion balance‑of‑payments deficit, the widest since January 2025, as soaring energy prices tied to the Middle‑East crisis forced higher dollar outflows. The first‑quarter gap widened to $5.3 billion, 79% higher than a year earlier,...
The Commodities Feed: Peace Talk Optimism Clouds Reality
Oil markets rallied on optimism that renewed US‑Iran peace talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the price gains under‑price the ongoing supply disruption. European gas prices remain low, with the Dutch TTF below €40/MWh despite a...
ECB Stalls Rate Decision as Iran War Fuels Dual Uncertainty
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira warned that the Iran war creates a "double uncertainty" around shock duration and inflation pass‑through. They urged a data‑driven approach, signaling likely rate‑hold at the upcoming meeting...
India's Sensex Nudges up 27 Points to 78,520 as Nifty Steadies Above 24,300
India's benchmark indices closed marginally higher on Monday, with the BSE Sensex gaining 26.76 points to 78,520.30 and the NSE Nifty 50 inching up 11.30 points to 24,364.85. The modest rally came despite heightened geopolitical risk from US‑Iran tensions and...
SBI Forecasts India’s FY27 Growth at 6.8%‑7.1% Amid Oil Price Shock
State Bank of India (SBI) projects India’s economy to expand 6.8%‑7.1% in fiscal year 2027, defying the drag from a recent oil price shock. The forecast, released on April 20, 2026, underscores a robust macro‑economic environment that could shape budgeting,...
China Shows Resilience to Energy Shock but Weak Demand Limits Growth Outlook, Fitch Says
Fitch Ratings says China’s economy has withstood the latest global energy shock thanks to diversified import sources and strong policy backing, but the resilience is offset by persistently weak consumer demand. Household spending remains flat, keeping overall growth uneven. The...
Rapid US Pivot Needed as Mexico Outpaces Growth
Scoop: the sooner he pivots to a great relationship with the USA, the faster the economic and cultural ties will heal. Mexico will eat his lunch. Growth in some economic areas is 6-8% per year, and even Canadian companies are...
Warsh Confirmation Hearing Highlights Unusual Fed Chair Process
There's nothing normal about this season of Fed Chair Apprentice, and it is far from over ... My preview of Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing. https://t.co/S3gLBjAF7V
Fed Chair Apprentice
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is undergoing a Senate confirmation hearing that could make him the next Fed chair, pending President Trump’s backing and a pending DOJ investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell. Warsh emphasizes that the Fed’s operational...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: All Eyes on Fed Succession as Mortgage-Rate Swings Ease
Mortgage-rate swings have calmed as the United States and Iran move toward a peace agreement, reducing market volatility. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s leadership transition is back in focus, with nominee Kevin Warsh scheduled for a Senate confirmation...
Policy to Balance Trade Deficit Fuels Decades of Growth
This will have exponentially more impact on balancing the trade deficit than any tariff policy and will drive massive American economic growth for today and the next few decades. Also massive for driving demand in the domestic goods economy.
Oil Falls as Investors Assess Mixed Messaging on Iran Peace Talks Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors weighed mixed signals from the United States and Iran ahead of a looming cease‑fire deadline. Vice President JD Vance is expected to head a U.S. delegation to Pakistan, while Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned...
Gulf Oil Turmoil Spurs Shift Toward China
US fights Iran. Gulf oil market is roiling. In the meantime, Gulf states are shifting toward China. Day what?!
Fed's Waller Signals Rate Hold as Inflation and Labor Risks Loom
Fed Governor Christopher Waller told an audience in Alabama that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% range. He warned that persistent inflation and a slowing labor market make aggressive policy moves risky,...
U.S. Targets Namibia to Boost Uranium Imports Amid China Rivalry
U.S. Ambassador to Namibia John Giordana announced a new push to raise uranium imports from Namibia, which supplies 10‑12% of global output. The move is framed as a strategic effort to secure critical mineral supply chains and counter China’s expanding...
AARP Warns Retirees that Inflation May Wipe Out 2.8% Social Security COLA Boost
AARP has warned that the 2.8% Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 could be eroded by persistent inflation, citing a March CPI increase of 3.3% year‑over‑year. The alert comes as the Senior Citizens League projects the same 2.8% COLA...
Minnesota Baby‑Products CEO Details Tariff Refund Process on NPR
The chief executive of a Minnesota‑based baby‑products maker spoke with NPR’s Michel Martin about her experience seeking a refund from tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump. The interview, aired on Morning Edition on April 20, 2026, underscores the complexity of navigating U.S. trade...
AUD/USD Climbs to 0.7176 as Weaker Dollar and RBA Tightening Outlook Fuel Bullish Bias
The Australian dollar gained against the US dollar, trading around 0.7176, as the US Dollar Index slipped near 98.00 and market participants priced in a possible tightening cycle from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The move reflects a blend of...
IMF Trims 2026 Global Growth to 3.1% and Lifts Inflation Outlook to 4.4%
The International Monetary Fund reduced its 2026 global GDP growth projection to 3.1% and increased the inflation forecast to 4.4% in its April World Economic Outlook. The downgrade reflects heightened geopolitical tension, especially the war in the Middle East, and...
Asian Bond Outflows Hit $7.6bn in March, South Korea Leads with $7.3bn Exit
Foreign investors sold $7.57 billion of Asian sovereign bonds in March, the largest monthly outflow since 2022. South Korea bore the brunt with a $7.25 billion net exit, as oil‑linked inflation worries sparked a regional risk‑off. The sell‑off underscores how geopolitical shocks...
Cocoa Futures Jump Over 3% on Hormuz Closure Fears, Short Positions Hit 3-Year High
Cocoa futures surged 3.5% on Monday after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz closure, pushing NY contracts up 112 points and London contracts up 80 points. The rally coincided with funds' net short positions climbing to a three‑year peak of...
Spirit Airlines Requests Hundreds of Millions in Bailout as Jet Fuel Prices Surge 95%
Spirit Airlines has asked the Trump administration for a emergency bailout worth hundreds of millions of dollars after jet fuel prices jumped nearly 95% following the Iran conflict, jeopardizing its restructuring plan and raising the risk of liquidation. The carrier,...
Oil Pullback Ends Trade Narrative, Sparks Low‑Price Speculation
When a trade suffers the kind of pullback oil has now seen, it's over. A trade is just a story. It needs excitement and momentum. That's out the window and has been replaced by people asking how low oil prices...
Russia Threatens Europe as Ukraine Escalates Strikes on Putin’s Oil Industry
Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Russia’s oil terminals, pipelines and refineries, slashing export capacity by roughly 40 percent. The surge reflects a maturing domestic drone industry that in March 2026 launched more cross‑border attacks than Russia for...
Turning Point? Clean Energy Met 100% of World’s New Power Needs in 2025: Report
Ember’s 2025 Global Electricity Review shows clean‑power generation rose by 887 TWh, outpacing the 849 TWh increase in total electricity demand. Renewables supplied 34 percent of global electricity, overtaking coal’s 33 percent share for the first time, and coal generation fell below one‑third of...
War Continues
Iranian officials privately signal readiness to resume U.S. peace talks, yet publicly remain skeptical of Washington’s commitment. Spokesman Esmail Baghaei declined to confirm participation in a second Islamabad round, while President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that the United States appears to seek Iran’s...
Cold War Echoes of Great Power Minerals Strategy
China and the United States are accelerating strategies to dominate critical mineral supply chains, echoing Cold War‑era resource competition. Beijing has embedded mineral security in its 14th Five‑Year Plan, introduced licensing rules and consolidated rare‑earth producers under state‑backed groups. Washington...
Geopolitical Beta Divergence: Market-Cap Weighted Amplification of Asymmetric Exposure
The article argues that market‑cap weighted indices magnify geopolitical risk because their largest constituents carry the highest geopolitical beta. A case study of the April 20, 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade shows the S&P 500 fell 0.24% while the Russell 2000 rose 0.58%, highlighting...
Japan Protests China's Oil and Gas Projects in the East China Sea
Japan lodged a formal protest after China began constructing a new offshore structure on its side of the East China Sea median line. Tokyo argues the median line should serve as the de‑facto boundary until a formal EEZ delimitation is...
Big Tech's Low Taxes Boost Profits, Erode Worker Share
Actually, Pro-Trump MAG4 companies - $META $TSLA $GOOGL & $AMZN - unsurprisingly pay the least US taxes despite being some of the largest companies in the world. https://t.co/80OHUutsyx Also this trend of US corporate profits growing faster than the domestic economy has...
Why the Most Important Food Prices Are Rising Again
Canadian grocery inflation rose to 4.4% in March, outpacing the headline 4% CPI figure. Meat prices surged—beef up 12.7%, chicken 7.5%, pork 6.2%—as herd reductions and higher feed costs tighten supply. Vegetable prices also jumped, with cucumbers up 28.4% and...
US Businesses Begin Claiming Tariff Refunds
The episode examines the rollout of a new U.S. Customs portal that lets businesses claim refunds for tariffs imposed under the Trump administration, featuring firsthand accounts from small‑business owners Beth Benneke and Cassie Abel who describe technical glitches, locked accounts,...
Jet Fuel Shipments Tank; Global Supply In-Transit Plunges 60%
Global jet and kerosene fuel volumes in transit by tanker have fallen 60% since March 1, 2026, with European‑bound shipments plunging 80%, according to Kpler data. The drop reflects tighter refinery output and shifting demand patterns. Industries that rely on just‑in‑time delivery...
The Closer – Hawkish Shift, Rate Outlook, Canada Data – 4/20/26
Volatility metrics such as the VIX and MOVE have slipped back below their six‑month averages, while oil‑related volatility remains unusually high, sitting a full standard deviation above its norm. Historical patterns show payroll figures tend to weaken in the second...
Daily Bulletin...
The Trump administration announced the launch of a $166 billion tariff refund program. The initiative follows a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down a series of tariffs on imported goods. Treasury officials will begin processing claims from importers who paid...
Tiny Triggers Can Jeopardize $110 Trillion Economy
turns out it doesn’t take much to hold a $110 trillion global economy at risk.
EIA Predicts Hormuz Crisis Will Vanish by Fall
Hormuz Crisis: Gone by Spring, Fixed by Fall says EIA “It’s going to disappear. "One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SIU7yJyfMK
Xi Wants Strait of Hormuz Opened; NDRC Head on Security and Development; Cake Order Leads to Huge Fines; Solar Industry...
President Xi Jinping, in a call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, urged an immediate ceasefire and emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for normal passage. The Chinese readout framed the strait’s uninterrupted flow as serving...
Markets Brace for Iran Conflict Impact on US Economy
Is the Iran war already hurting the US economy? For their next trick, markets will try to make sense of US retail sales data alongside headlines from the Middle East. #stockmarket #IranWar #economy #macro #trading #dollar #oil https://t.co/K6KFiZlhQl
Oil Surge Pushes Brazil Real Toward 4.50/USD
We're on our way to $/BRL 4.50. Oil prices aren't going to fall back to pre-war levels quickly, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade and the Real. I'm moving my posts behind a paywall in coming months. Please consider subscribing...
China’s Decade-Long Goal: Avert Global Economic Catastrophe
Oh, Rudy... I'm so saddened by this line: "China is clearly intervening to get the Iranians to open the strait to prevent a global economic catastrophe." @RudyHavenstein Yes... it has been shown over the last decade that China's primary objective...
US‑Iran Talks Will Steer Markets over Next 48 Hours
Here's the top global macro event risk over the next 48 hours. I think there is a lot of important backdrop to the likes of US retail sales, UK jobs and Tesla earnings....however, I think the US-Iran negotiations will be responsible...