Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
India’s ministerial panel will examine field trials of a genetically modified rapeseed (mustard) variety, a step that could reshape the country’s cautious stance on GM food crops. The review comes as the Supreme Court prepares to revisit a pending case that has stalled the crop’s commercial release for years. Simultaneously, a new trade deal with the United States lowers duties on several US agricultural imports, many of which are derived from GM seeds. Approval of GM rapeseed could cut India’s $17 billion annual vegetable‑oil import bill and open the door for additional biotech crops.
A day that was a long time coming -- TSMC's dominance of chip manufacturing led Taiwan to post a $70b quarterly current account surplus in q4. That is $280b annualized, or a surplus of ~ 33% of GDP Never...
China dominates domestically with 60 reactors and a growing pipeline, yet its export push for the 1,100 MW Hualong One and 1,400 MW CAP1400 has stalled. Only three Hualong One units have been built abroad, all in Pakistan, while no CAP1400 deals...
Panama’s economy expanded 4% in 2025, driven mainly by services, while manufacturing lagged at 0.46%. Business group SIP says reopening First Quantum’s Cobre Panama copper mine could lift GDP growth to 6% by 2027, versus a 3.7% slowdown if the mine...
The Economist’s piece argues that the Chinese Communist Party’s 1949 takeover was driven more by Soviet military backing, systematic violence, and terror than by popular enthusiasm for communism. After World War II, Soviet arms and advisors transformed the CCP from a...
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced a sweeping fiscal overhaul, lowering the oil‑price budget rule threshold by $1 each year for five years to shift revenue reliance from oil and gas to domestic consumption. The move follows a sharp drop...
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, a veteran negotiator backed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, is spearheading a fresh push to revive a nuclear deal and avert U.S. military action. He frames Iran’s approach as “bazaar‑style” bargaining—patient, continuous, and strategic—while warning that...
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
Chile’s mining ministry is set to file five new lithium contracts in March, just days before President Gabriel Boric departs office, as part of a push to accelerate the 2023 national lithium strategy. The contracts target the Salar de Ascotán,...
Federal Reserve Governor Waller outlined a systematic rollout of artificial intelligence across the central bank. The Fed has built a common, general‑purpose AI platform that all Reserve Bank employees can access for drafting, summarizing, and analysis. Specialized AI tools support...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, to be applied for 150 days after a Supreme Court decision nullified the prior regime. The Airforwarders Association (AfA) warned the measure will...
Ukraine’s agriculture and steel sectors remain economic pillars despite war‑driven disruptions, contributing roughly 7‑8% and 5.7‑7.2% of GDP respectively. Grain exports have fallen to their lowest level since the invasion, while sunflower crushing is 9% below last year and 26%...
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Ghana announced an artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) gold formalisation programme that will channel roughly 127 metric tons of gold per year into official trade. The Ghana Gold Board, via the newly created GoldBod, will purchase a minimum of 2.45 tons weekly,...
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
The European Central Bank posted a €1.3 billion loss for 2025, a sharp improvement from the €7.9 billion deficit recorded in 2024. The turnaround stems mainly from a dramatic reduction in net interest expense as liability remuneration rates fell and TARGET balances...
China’s decades‑long dominance of rare‑earth processing is being challenged as the United States and allies pour over $8.5 billion into reshaping the supply chain. REAlloys Inc. has become the only North‑American company that can convert rare‑earth concentrates into metals and alloys,...
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural...
The U.S. Senate trimmed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) renewal to a single‑year extension, sparking optimism among exporters but deepening long‑term uncertainty. Simultaneously, Washington imposed tariffs of 10‑30% on key African products, and non‑tariff measures continue to raise...
Eurozone consumer confidence held steady at a final -12.2 in February, matching the preliminary reading. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3, missing forecasts, while industrial confidence fell to -7.1 and services confidence dropped to 5.0, both below expectations. Employment expectations declined...
India is expected to experience one of its warmest Marches on record, with temperatures projected up to 7 °C above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. These states produce more than 80 % of the nation’s...
ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters her baseline assumption is that she will remain in office until the end of her six‑year term. Analysts note her wording leaves room for an earlier exit, a scenario that has been floated in...
There’s a lot of heated views about the Jane Street Terraform story. Those who say “nothing to see here” and no big market maker conspiracy. And those who think something very untoward has been happening for ages. I think both...
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Brazil’s Suape Industrial Port Complex signed two MoUs with Malaysia’s Westports and Northport at Port Klang, establishing a permanent communication channel between the two port groups. The agreements aim to launch new long‑distance maritime routes and expand logistics links, potentially...
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on GOLD PRICES: "Strong investor demand, continued central bank purchases, and safe-haven inflows...are expected to sustain markedly high gold prices over the next two years..." BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/fGfk9ZNBcn
A mix of views around whether the recent rise in unemployment was structural or cyclical, there was greater agreement around the role of policies in the rise in young NEETs and youth unemployment: 47% of panel agreed that this was...
The 2026 Year of the Fire Horse marks the 60th anniversary of the world’s first VLCC, Idemitsu Maru, and has sparked a surge in supertanker charter rates, with spot prices topping $200,000 per day and rumors of a one‑year deal...
US farmers and soybeans exporters not to get more China business? China duty still exists. Supply chains. Maritime.
Delighted to have a comprehensive discussion with @EUCouncil President António Costa @eucopresident in Brussels on global energy markets & European energy security – with a focus on the competitiveness of European industry & the importance of electricity affordability https://t.co/ixYMCcBHPY
Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament that euro‑area inflation has fallen sharply, reaching 1.7% in January and hovering near the ECB’s 2% target. Despite the data, surveys show households still perceive price growth about 1.2 percentage points higher than official...
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
USDA confirms the sale of 178,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Japan. 154kt is for 2026/27 and 24kt is for 2027/28.
Thai private‑sector importer Gulf Energy announced a new tender for two additional April LNG cargoes, targeting delivery windows of 22‑23 April and 25‑26 April. The offers are to be priced against the northeast Asian spot LNG index, with the tender closing on...
Your dollar lost 53% of its purchasing power over the past 30 years. That’s not an anomaly. That’s the system. Inflation isn’t just a number - it’s a silent thief. Invest in real assets, or watch your money evaporate. https://t.co/vTylWHpPhj
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were pretty dismal across the board last week. 107kt new crop wheat was sold in the week, which was more than expected. https://t.co/Jk2c7Ibkg5
My @BrookingsInst blog on whether US reserve currency status is eroding. There’s no sign the fall in the Dollar is accompanied by foreign reserve managers bailing on the greenback. There simply aren’t any viable alternatives, including the Euro… https://t.co/U189pIWHJ4
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Within the continued consolidation of the FX market, there are two standouts: 1) After being the only G10 currency that fell yesterday, the yen is the only one higher today. 2) the RMB's gains have accelerated. https://t.co/AiTduO3fl9 https://t.co/BxiHf6en8T
If you are an importer, what % discount would you accept to get paid the full amount on your tariff refunds right now with 100% certainty and you keep the money even if there are no refunds.
In, South Africa, one in three people are OUT OF WORK. No wonder its economy has STAGNATED. https://t.co/8TbCpugNqS
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
Join me at 2pm GMT today on Spaces to discuss what’s really going on behind the scenes when liquidity providers like Jane Street support key ETFs and markets. https://t.co/a9uhteuOzP
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
