Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile, Germany’s CPI and the ECB‑preferred HICP both missed forecasts, easing pressure on the euro. BoJ officials reiterated a gradual tightening path, while the ECB remains data‑dependent, widening the policy divergence between the two central banks.
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
Canadian hotels closed 2025 with a record RevPAR of $142.89, a 4.1% year‑over‑year increase, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Growth was uneven, as Ontario and Quebec fell short of the national average while domestic leisure travel buoyed other regions. New...
Tariff volatility under the Trump administration is forcing U.S. brands to rethink where they source products. Executives like Brooklinen's COO note that shifting production to a new country takes months, not weeks, and domestic cotton supplies are limited. Companies are...
At CARICOM’s 50th heads‑of‑government meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized Washington’s renewed focus on the Caribbean, tying security, energy and investment to the region’s tourism‑driven economies. He warned that transnational crime and energy instability threaten visitor confidence, while...
Deflation May Reign If Metals Meet High-Price Cure - That orange juice and cocoa were the worst-performing commodities in 2025, after being among the best in 2024, may foreshadow metals in 2026. In the history of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot...
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
Ontario’s government is pledging additional cash to accelerate mining development, announcing C$140 million for road work to the Ring of Fire and billions for high‑capacity power lines. The province upgraded Kinross Gold’s Great Bear project under the One Project One Process...
China is maintaining a cautious diplomatic stance toward Iran despite a 25‑year strategic partnership and its role as Tehran’s primary oil buyer, accounting for over 80% of Iranian exports in 2025. Beijing publicly urges restraint and dialogue while opposing Iran’s...
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑January 2026 hit ₹9.8 lakh crore, about 63 % of the government’s full‑year estimate. Net tax receipts climbed to ₹20.94 lakh crore, while non‑tax revenue rose to ₹5.57 lakh crore. Total government outlays increased to ₹36.9 lakh crore, with capital expenditure reaching ₹8.4 lakh crore. The widening...
A new BCG and UnternehmerTUM report crowns planqc as a leading European player in neutral‑atom quantum computing. The analysis projects quantum technologies could generate $450‑850 billion in global economic value by 2040, underscoring Europe’s need for industrial‑scale, sovereign solutions. It stresses...
The crude tanker market is experiencing a sharp surge, with VLCC spot hires topping $200,000 per day and one‑year time‑charter equivalents reaching $135,000. Baltic Exchange data show composite VLCC rates near $169,000 daily, while International Seaways (INSW) reported Q4 2025...
Treasury teams are confronting a new era where AI, blockchain and tariff volatility are reshaping supply‑chain finance. A Citi Institute report finds 36% of large corporates now use AI in trade, with 72% seeking working‑capital gains and liquidity release. Tariff...
African nations sit atop a critical share of the world’s cobalt and other minerals essential for electric‑vehicle batteries, yet most of the value is still captured abroad. The author argues that proactive industrial policy—mirroring China’s use of special economic zones,...
The episode examines the fallout from recent US tariff moves, noting that despite uncertainty and mixed corporate news—such as Aston Martin’s job cuts—the FTSE 100 remains near record highs. It highlights the AI arms race, focusing on AMD’s $60 billion chip...
The ECB’s January 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey shows median inflation perception falling to 3.0% and 12‑month inflation expectations dropping to 2.6%, while three‑year expectations hold at 2.6% and five‑year expectations ease to 2.3%. Nominal income‑growth expectations rose to 1.2%, driven...
President Trump publicly rejected Nouri al‑Maliki’s nomination as Iraq’s prime minister, a move that back‑fired by rallying Shiite factions around the banner of national sovereignty. The episode exposes Iraq’s elite‑driven, communal power‑sharing system, where prime‑minister selection occurs outside parliament and...
The UK Treasury is weighing an early repeal of the Energy Profits Levy, a windfall tax that now sits at a 78% headline rate on North Sea oil and gas. Ministers have been meeting industry groups to assess the impact...
France’s CMA CGM has introduced Ocean Rise Express, a weekly direct service that links Japan and South China with North Europe. The route is operated solely by CMA CGM using a fleet of fourteen 7,000‑to‑10,000 TEU vessels, calling ports such as Kobe, Yokohama,...
South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace has signed a sales and purchase agreement to buy 1.5 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas from U.S. exporter Venture Global, with deliveries slated to start in 2030 and run for 20 years. The deal...
U.S. equity markets opened with a sharp selloff, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward monthly losses while the Dow remains on track for a February gain. Despite the decline, about 70% of S&P constituents closed higher, indicating broad participation....
Shipping is undergoing a structural reset as geopolitics forces trade routes to shift, turning volatility into a permanent operating condition. The Red Sea crisis and sanctions on Russian energy demonstrated how quickly voyages lengthen and insurance costs rise, exposing owners...
Despite a fourth‑quarter slowdown to 1.4% annualized, the U.S. economy is projected to resume solid, above‑trend growth in the first half of 2026. Labor market indicators show stabilization, with January adding 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edging down to...
The Economist’s language analysis shows State of the Union speeches have increasingly dwelled on past achievements, a trend echoed by President Trump’s nostalgic rhetoric. Investors are left questioning the outlook for a country that spends more time reminiscing than forecasting....
National Fortune Shipping Group, a Chinese firm incorporated in April 2025, announced the acquisition of two second‑hand capesize bulk carriers—NF Fortune and NF Future—at $18.5 million each. The vessels, the 177,200‑dwt Mikata and the 185,900‑dwt Ally, were built in 2005 and...
Institutional investors are rebalancing portfolios toward quantitative and global macro hedge‑fund strategies as volatility, rate uncertainty, and geopolitical shocks return. The shift reflects a deeper focus on true diversification, liquidity, and defensive alpha rather than pure yield hunting. Modern quant...
I’ve submitted formal comments into the docket. My core message: supply diversification alone is not enough. If we want durable investment in allied lithium production and processing, we must address price volatility. Lithium’s boom-bust cycles have repeatedly delayed capital formation and midstream...
Global funds are pouring back into Indian equities, buying about $2.1 billion of shares in February – the strongest monthly inflow in eight months. The rebound follows a record outflow in 2025 and is driven by a newly signed US‑India trade...
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Western Australia’s Mines and Petroleum Minister David Michael is leading a delegation of critical‑minerals firms on a trade mission to Canada and the United States. The team will hold meetings in Toronto, New York and Washington DC to promote Australian lithium, rare‑earth...
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
The process and legal fights over paying back import taxes will help shove tariffs back into voters’ minds, as well as provide them an excruciatingly detailed civics lesson in who literally pays the levies. (Hint: it’s not foreign governments.) https://t.co/N8dOe6rapr
Tokyo’s February CPI showed headline inflation at 1.6% year‑on‑year, while core inflation slipped to 1.8%, falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in 16 months. The core‑core measure, which excludes fresh food and energy, accelerated...
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
China’s clean‑energy surge is reshaping its energy landscape, with record solar installations and a 30% jump in wind capacity driving more than a third of the nation’s economic growth. Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta highlighted that renewable build‑out now outweighs traditional...
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
At the Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Trading conference, FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi outlined a sweeping reform agenda aimed at cementing the UK’s position as a global wholesale‑finance hub. He highlighted recent regulatory wins – from tighter market‑abuse enforcement...
If you want American citizens to defend your company from nationalization, you probably want to let them own a piece of it. Just my two cents.
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
China's PBOC will cut the foreign‑exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026. The move aims to ease hedging costs, curb excessive yuan appreciation, and signal a shift from emergency policy tools....
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream
EZ inflation still looks dovish to us for February, but upside surprises in France and Spain this morning doing doves no favours; the "in a good place" mantra to stay. Let's see what Germany's state CPIs throw at us in...
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
Reuters: The U.S. International Trade Commission said on Thursday it would investigate the economic impact of revoking China’s permanent normal trade status over a six-year period, a move that would likely increase tariffs on Chinese imports. https://t.co/T0xSqrLDgN
It seems like Korea goes through these speculative bubbles every five years or so https://t.co/jCSmYlbkaj
Nvidia said it secured a license to ship a small number of its less advanced H200 chips to customers in China, inching forward in its bid to return to the world’s largest semiconductor market Small number? https://t.co/qcOey50mOL
