Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
The Trump administration has escalated threats of military action against Iran while covert nuclear talks continue, and Tehran’s state media claim the pressure is a distraction linked to the Epstein scandal. In parallel, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Israel cemented a growing arms partnership, despite domestic media suppression. Brazil’s right‑wing is undergoing a digital transformation as young evangelical politicians inherit Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, leveraging an entrenched religious media network. These developments illustrate how geopolitical rivalries and domestic political shifts are increasingly mediated through digital narratives.
EU proposes CBAM treatment for pre-consumer aluminium and steel scrap to curb circumvention and boost traceability. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/eu-cbam-pre-consumer-scrap-proposal.html
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
Escalating clashes along the Pakistan‑Afghanistan border have intensified after Taliban‑aligned drones struck Pakistani military camps in Miranshah and Spinwam, prompting Islamabad to launch airstrikes on Afghan cities, including Kabul. The violence shatters the October cease‑fire and revives fears of a...
U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a January 2026 raid, removing the military threat to Guyana’s Essequibo region and clearing the path for the country’s oil expansion. Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with Chevron and CNOOC,...
A G7‑backed price cap on Russian oil, introduced in 2022, is shown to boost near‑term extraction while curbing global oil prices and volatility. The cap neutralizes market power and reduces the option value of holding reserves, shifting producer incentives toward...
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
The United States publicly affirmed its support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself against attacks by Afghanistan’s Taliban, whom Washington designates as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. The statement follows a rapid escalation after Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory...
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
In January 2026 the United States orchestrated the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, installing an interim administration that quickly aligned with Washington. President Donald Trump has since proclaimed control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sealing new contracts with U.S....
Oil prices jumped to eight‑month highs on Friday as diplomatic hopes between the United States and Iran faded, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude breached the $85‑per‑barrel mark while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $80. Traders cited potential supply...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to finish at 48,977.92 after a hotter‑than‑expected producer price index showed 0.5% inflation in January. The broader market fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% and the Nasdaq off 0.92%, as...
US recycled PET (rPET) demand remains weak, prompting concerns at the Plastics Recycling Conference. The recent shutdown of Evergreen Recycling’s Ohio and New York plants cuts domestic processing capacity by roughly 16%, tightening an already strained market. Low‑priced imports and abundant...
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift...
UBS downgraded U.S. equities to neutral, warning that high valuations, a weakening dollar and policy uncertainty limit upside for the S&P 500. The downgrade coincided with Bitcoin slipping below $65,500 as the market reacted to stronger-than‑expected U.S. inflation data and a...
Private debt markets have been struggling for some time. These are nonbank lenders, largely in the private equity space, although they do rely upon bank credit. This is one of many fragilities in the financial market and the economy more...
The United States and Mongolia marked 39 years of diplomatic ties while deepening their Strategic Partnership with flagship projects such as the $462 million MCC Water Compact and a USTDA‑backed aviation safety program. Mongolia’s recent accession to the Trump‑led Board of...
The UK government appointed Katharine Braddick, a former regulator now Barclays group head of strategic policy, as the Bank of England's deputy governor for prudential regulation. Her five‑year term begins on July 1, 2026, succeeding Sam Woods. The move follows finance...
Matson reported marginally weaker fourth‑quarter results as container volumes slipped 2.3% year‑over‑year, driven by a 7.2% drop in China shipments amid ongoing trade‑war pressures. Ocean operating income dipped to $136 million on revenue of $704.2 million, but the company was partially offset...
YSpace, the entrepreneurship hub at York University, has signed two memorandums of understanding with South Korea’s Korea Business Angels Association and the Seoul AI Hub. The agreements give YSpace a formal mandate to help Korean startups enter Canada and to...
Notable IMO b/c thus far this sell-off narrative seems to be focused solely on how US AI could disrupt the US. No one seems to be worried yet about what happens to US corporate profits if China AI disrupts the US. If...
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Seoul, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and signing ten MOUs across AI, biotech, agriculture, health and security. The summit’s headline outcome was the decision to revive stalled Mercosur free‑trade...
In a recent ClubGPF live discussion, Geopolitical Futures chairman George Friedman revisited his book *The Storm Before the Calm* to argue that America is moving through an 80‑year institutional cycle. He compared today’s political polarization and economic anxiety to three...
India's new series GDP data for FY26 shows nominal output ₹345.47 lakh crore, about 3.3% below the budget’s estimate. This revision pushes the FY27 fiscal‑deficit ratio to roughly 4.46% of GDP, up from the projected 4.31%, and lifts the FY27 debt‑to‑GDP ratio...
GBP/USD slipped about 0.10% to 1.3469 as US core PPI jumped 3.6% YoY, reinforcing expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. The stronger dollar was further supported by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which hurt risk‑on sentiment. In...
India’s nominal GDP for FY 2025‑26 has been revised down to ₹345 lakh crore, a 3.3 % cut from the earlier ₹357 lakh crore estimate. In dollar terms this puts the economy at roughly $3.79 trillion, postponing the $4 trillion milestone to a later fiscal year. The downgrade...
Germany plans to abolish fixed feed‑in tariffs for rooftop solar installations under 25 kW starting in 2027, arguing that falling equipment costs now make small systems economically viable without subsidies. The draft proposal, seen by Bloomberg, would shift policy emphasis toward...
Russia’s state‑owned nuclear group Rosatom announced it will press ahead with its overseas nuclear power‑plant projects despite the United Kingdom’s new sanctions targeting three of its subsidiaries. The UK imposed nearly 300 measures aimed at curbing Russian energy revenues, citing...
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
In this episode, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chaudhia discuss European rate markets, focusing on euro‑area bond issuance, German duration outlook, and UK political developments. They assess the limited near‑term impact of proposed EU defence‑related Eurobonds, maintaining a neutral stance on...
In a February 27 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, argued that deterring Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait is a core U.S. national‑security interest. He discussed the economic stakes of the U.S.–China rivalry...
Cheering for lower mortgage rates has always been a delicate balance of hoping for payment relief w/o a wider economic downturn. In other words, getting a cheaper 30-year fixed without a big increase in unemployment or a stock market crash. The fact...
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Today, I measure Cuba’s inflation rate at 49.0%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FIFTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SOCIALISM = POVERTY. https://t.co/62I1XycBU8
In this episode, Kuo Zhang, President of Alibaba.com, explains how the platform’s new AI agent, Axio, is transforming global B2B trade by handling complex sourcing tasks, from interpreting natural‑language requests to managing compliance, logistics, and supplier communication. He highlights real‑world...
The S&P 500 is headed for its first RED month since April 2025. Meanwhile, GOLD is headed for its 8th consecutive GREEN month. That’s gold’s longest winning streak in history. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/sNJYx0tj3z
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
The International Atomic Energy Agency released a confidential report urging Iran to grant unrestricted access to all nuclear facilities, highlighting the Isfahan site where a new enrichment plant and tunnels store uranium enriched up to 60%. The agency estimates Iran...
No one cared about the ISM when it was dropping for years while BTC went up. Now that BTC is going down and the ISM has gone up, it’s suddenly the indicator everyone cares about
January’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released. PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 2.9%/yr. As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/PsHdiaQZzH
PM Viktor Orbán has deployed troops & police to protect Hungary’s critical energy infrastructure. Orbán cites an alleged "oil blockade" & "blackmail" from Ukraine. It’s as clear as the nose on your face that Hungary, a member of NATO, views Ukraine as...
America’s net import reliance for critical minerals in 2025, along with the primary countries supplying them between 2021 and 2024 https://t.co/89QwEHKe16 via @visualcap
A theme that @myers_nyc is seeing amongst investors globally? "Sell America." "I've never seen sentiment this bearish toward the United States." https://t.co/iJAlPoLTTE
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message: The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view. New macro presentation is out: https://t.co/GY7oyQol42 https://t.co/rypcHQGugR
The Druzhba pipeline, which supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil & 86% of Hungary's oil, remains FRONT & CENTER. Hungarian PM Orban & Slovak PM Fico have both asserted that the pipeline is functional, while Ukraine asserts that the pipeline has not...
50+ slide chartbook to go along with our @ForwardGuidance episodes - posted every week. https://t.co/BewBom4N6L
I run a family account that is very light on profanity, but I'm making an exception here because this is highly relevant re: policy - i.e., the market response to tariff refunds - and is also kinda funny https://t.co/W4w9escVzV https://t.co/5sIpIX72ON
A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi. https://t.co/wtjQL4ly9p
The hotter-than-expected headline PPI this morning didn't curb Fed rate cut expectations. The implied cuts through 2026 from Fed Fund futures has edged up a bit. $DXY hasn't taken the fundamental bait for a bearish wedge break though: https://t.co/CgVJLLvWs8
