Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Gemini to Suspend Two More Middle East Shuttles in May Due to War
Gemini Cooperation announced it will suspend two Mediterranean‑Saudi shuttle services, JED2/JD2 and JED3/JD3, starting mid‑May as the war in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping lanes. The loops, which connect Tangier, Port Said East, Aqaba and Jeddah, are being halted alongside earlier suspensions announced last month. Partners Hapag‑Lloyd and Maersk issued separate advisories, emphasizing capacity consolidation into alternative routes to preserve regional coverage. The decision underscores the broader logistical challenges facing carriers operating between Europe, the Red Sea and the Gulf.
Carney Names Broad Team to Advise on Tense US-Canada Trade Talks
Prime Minister Mark Carney has created a 24‑member advisory committee to guide Canada through increasingly hostile U.S. trade negotiations. The panel pulls former Conservative leaders, ex‑premiers, senior diplomats and executives from banking, rail, energy and agriculture, reflecting a broad political...
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doesn't Cool Inflation or Markets
The notion that Warsh shrinking the balance sheet would put downward pressure on inflation or that it would deflate asset prices is one of the most ludicrous propositions that anyone following monetary policy and markets over the past 20 years...
Ideal Fed Policy: Minimal Meetings, No Politics, 2% Inflation
My wish list 8 meetings and press conferences Muzzle governors and presidents from discussing and writing about monetary policy Keep the dots Forward guidance when useful (typically at zero fed funds rate, or Pivots) Smaller balance sheet with no MBS and no long duration assets...
Iran-Israel Conflict Triggers $50B Oil Shock, Slashing Emerging Market Growth Forecasts
The Iran‑Israel/US war has knocked more than 500 million barrels of crude offline, pushing Brent above $100 and diesel to $5.61 per gallon. The shock has slashed IMF growth forecasts for emerging Asia to 4.9% and forced the UAE to seek...
Canada Initiates Safeguard Inquiry Into Imports of Wood Cabinets, Flooring and Furniture
On April 20, 2026, Canada instructed the Canadian International Trade Tribunal to conduct a 270‑day safeguard inquiry into imports of finished wood products, including cabinets, hardwood flooring, and storage furniture. The investigation will examine import data from January 1 2023 to determine...
European Stocks Slip 0.8% as US‑Iran Ceasefire Doubts Surge
European markets fell about 0.8% on Monday after President Donald Trump said a two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire extension was “highly unlikely.” The Stoxx Europe 600 closed at 621.46 points, with airlines down 2.9% and cyclical sectors lagging, while energy outperformed.
NY Fed Survey Shows Record Low Wage Satisfaction as Job‑Switch Intent Slips to 9.7%
The New York Federal Reserve’s March labor‑market survey found wage satisfaction at a historic low of 52.3% and the likelihood of workers seeking a new employer at just 9.7%, the lowest level since March 2021. The findings highlight growing pay...
Ringgit Set to Retest 3.88/USD as Foreign Inflows Surge
Economists and Bank Muamalat chief economist project Malaysia's ringgit will retest the 3.88 per US dollar level, driven by a 2.8% year‑to‑date appreciation and net foreign inflows of roughly $420 million this year. The outlook hinges on solid domestic growth, stable...
RBI Governor Warns Global Supply Shocks Could Trigger Second‑Round Inflation in India
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that ongoing West Asia conflict could turn first‑round price shocks into entrenched second‑round inflation, stressing the need for data‑driven monetary policy and careful forex interventions. The central bank, holding $710 billion in reserves,...
Treasury Yields Rise as Iran Ceasefire Talks Lift Oil Prices
U.S. Treasury prices fell and yields climbed after renewed ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil higher. The move marked a clear geopolitical catalyst for the bond market, separate from the ongoing Federal Reserve nominee hearing.
Simsek Is a Keeper & VDL Needs to Read the Memo
Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has faced intense media criticism but has overseen a dramatic macro‑economic turnaround since spring 2023. Inflation fell from over 70% to just above 30%, foreign reserves swelled to roughly $200 bn and the once‑looming KKM gap...
A Drop of 300-400 Thousand Barrels per Day. How Are Ukrainian Attacks Damaging Russian Oil Exports?
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports and refineries forced a sharp cut in crude output, dropping production by 300,000‑400,000 barrels per day in April—the steepest decline in six years. The attacks hit key export hubs in Leningrad Oblast, Primorsk on...
Trump's Pick for Fed Chair Heads to Capitol Hill
The episode covers President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, highlighting Warsh's testimony that balances a claim of Fed independence with the President's desire for lower interest rates. It then shifts to energy companies seeking new...
America, the Oblivious
The article argues that China is reshaping global trade by providing manufacturing technology to resource‑rich nations of the Global South in exchange for natural commodities, creating a new form of economic imperialism. It contrasts this strategy with the United States’...
EU Foreign Ministers Divided on Sanctioning Israel
EU foreign ministers remain split over suspending the EU‑Israel association agreement. Spain and Ireland pushed for at least a partial suspension, citing West Bank settlements, the Gaza humanitarian crisis, and Israel's new death‑penalty law. The European Commission’s proposal to suspend...
Beef Imports, Red Tape Reductions, & a New Canola Processing Facility | RealAg Radio, April 21, 2026
The episode examines Canada’s stalled progress on red‑tape reduction and regulatory reform, featuring Pierre Patel of CropLife Canada who critiques the federal government’s weak response to a House of Commons report with 26 recommendations. It also covers concerns from the...
Warsh's Trump Ties and Consistently Poor Fed Calls
It's not just that Warsh would be beholden to Trump. That is the most important thing, but it also overshadows the fact that his Fed calls down the years have been bad--not uniquely bad, but systematically bad. I'm old enough...
World Briefs | EU Warns Against Early Nuclear Plant Closures
The European Commission is urging EU members to keep existing nuclear plants operating, warning that premature closures would undermine low‑cost, low‑emission power amid rising energy prices linked to the Iran war. In India, the Competition Commission has escalated AB InBev...
U.S. Forces Board Sanctioned Tanker in Indian Ocean as Iran Crackdown Expands Beyond Hormuz
U.S. forces conducted a right‑of‑visit boarding of the stateless tanker Tifani in the Indian Ocean, marking the first interdiction of a sanctioned Iran‑linked vessel outside the Persian Gulf. The ship, falsely flying a Botswana flag, had loaded roughly 2 million barrels...
Energy Shock From Trump and Hormuz Closure Spurs Fertilizer Surge
Fertilizer Prices Skyrocket Thanks To Trump, Strait of Hormuz Closure Abishur "Mr Geopolitics" Prakash explains why the energy crisis has quickly created a global food crisis. #cdnpoli #iranwar https://youtu.be/MG9J7FJIwzg
How Bad Is the Australian Economy Going to Get? - Podcast
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the nation’s economy is increasingly vulnerable as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran drags on. The podcast features political editor Tom McIlroy, business editor Jonathan Barrett and host Nour Haydar discussing how the war is amplifying global supply‑chain...
Why Is Trump So Desperate To Secure The Strait of Hormuz?
The blog argues that former President Donald Trump is pursuing control of the Strait of Hormuz as a private citizen, hoping to profit from tokenized trade along a proposed IMEC corridor. It claims the effort is being funded with taxpayer...
Fed's 2021‑22 Mistakes Fuel Ongoing Inflation Legacy
Warsh opens the hearing by noting that today's inflation is a residual of the Fed's past mistakes "The Fed missed its mark, and we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022." "Once you let inflation...
Oil Prices Set to Surge After Gulf Shipments End
My take w/ @WallStBullion on why OIL is about to SPIKE: "By the end of April, all pre-war Gulf oil shipments will be delivered. Then, oil prices will spike again. Soon, the paper market will be mugged by reality & converge.” STAY LONG...
Trump Says 'I'll Remember' Companies that Don’t Seek Tariff Refunds
President Donald Trump told CNBC he will "remember" U.S. companies that do not seek refunds for the tariffs he imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court ruled illegal in a 6‑3 decision. A day later,...
Warsh May Trim Fed Press Conferences if Confirmed
Fed Chair nominee Warsh hints he would reduce the number of press conferences if confirmed (Powell currently does one after every rate decision)
Arkansas Lithium Reserves Offer US Independence From China
US Sen Tom Cotton on lithium development in Arkansas: "We should not be relying on Communist China for this crucial mineral."
Policy Paper: World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund 2026 Spring Meetings, Development Committee: UK Governors' Statement
At the 113th Development Committee meeting in Washington, UK Development Minister Baroness Chapman and Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented the UK Governors’ statement for the World Bank and IMF Spring 2026 gatherings. The statement reaffirmed Britain’s commitment of £1.2 billion (≈ $1.5 billion) to...
Trump Threatens Businesses over Tariff Refund Policy
Trump on tariff refunds, basically: Nice business ya got there; would be a shame if something happened to it. https://t.co/67e3RLjuR8 https://t.co/wlben8Vnlo
Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Must Be Gradual, No Fixed Target
What level should the balance sheet be at? Warsh: I haven't picked a number. The Fed should come to an agreement, it's taken 18 years to get to the balance sheet, it won't happen overnight. It should not hold long-term Treasuries....
DHL CEO Warns Gulf Energy Shock Could Push Global Economy Toward a Tipping Point
DHL Group CEO Tobias Meyer warned on Bloomberg TV that a sustained disruption in Gulf crude flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, could tighten freight markets and lift transport costs. He noted that the impact is already visible in...
Central Banks Must Act Differently in Crises, Leveraging Credibility
Warsh: central banks need to act differently in crisis versus other times. Those other times is when the credibility is built for the assertiveness during crises when they should be given the benefit of the doubt.
Warsh Pushed 2008 Rate Hike over Oil Price Worries
The reason Warsh wanted to hike rates in 2008, just months before the financial collapse was...wait for it...concern over high oil prices
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
US Economy Defies Oil Shock, Re‑Acceleration Persists
Maybe the econ re-acceleration thesis isn't dead from the oil shock.... The US economy truly is something else https://t.co/CKPkVkfOQG
Nations Squeezed: US Pressure vs Beijing Warning on Supply Chains
Many countries are caught in a vise: Washington wants them to strip Chinese content from their supply chains, and Beijing is warning them not to. @Lingling_Wei https://t.co/LilGzuOzlf https://t.co/LilGzuOzlf
One-Year Inflation Expectations Surge to 4.8%, Year’s Largest Spike
JUST IN: One year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%, the biggest one month spike in a year
Markets Expect Peace, Yet Escalation Threatens Energy Crisis
The markets have decided peace will be the outcome in the Middle East, writes @TheMichaelEvery But markets will be wrong The options are really limited IMO A fragile pause before escalation or escalation. But escalation has many faces. None averts an energy disaster. #OilMarkets...
Retire Dot Plots, Forward Guidance, and Cut Press Conferences
Shitposting aside, I think it would be a great move to retire dot plots, forward guidance, and have less press conferences
Warsh Says President Never Directed Specific Interest-Rate Decisions
Warsh's wording seemed quite precise to me (emphasis mine): "The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on *any interest rate decision*" He used the same wording again: "The president never once asked me to commit to any particular...
Regional Trade Agenda Drives SADC Economic Growth
President @edmnangagwa welcomes the President of Botswana, @duma_boko at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport… Regional trade is his on the agenda … and it is the catalyst that will accelerate economic growth and prosperity in SADC & beyond…....
30-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Move
US 30Y yields are compressing near a key breakout zone setup suggests a decisive move could be close. What happens next could impact equities, commodities, and global liquidity Read the full breakdown: https://t.co/a7I8dqoCIw #US30Y #BondYields #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Indiacharts #MacroEconomics...
Retail Sales Rise, but Inflation‑adjusted Sales Fall Fourth Month
Despite yet another "upside surprise" to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month. Goods prices are rising faster than the dollar value of goods sales Consumers are spending dollars, but aren't necessarily consuming more output https://t.co/EyAhZA065H
Kevin Warsh Calls for End to Forward Guidance
I can't believe Kevin Warsh just said he wants to kill forward guidance It's just a podcast man
Rising Living Costs Reveal Fed’s Missed Inflation Target
Warsh on cost of living: when the cost of living has gone up for virtually all deciles of the American public, it's a sign that the Fed missed its mark. The fatal policy error is a legacy we still live...
Firms Caught Between US Push and China Warning
US wants China out of upstream supply chains. China warns against it. When trust of both parties is thin, what do firms do.? Geopolitics and war? Taiwan. Where and what is next? Supply chain alignment vs fluidity. Welcome to the...
Rising T‑Rates May Trigger Emerging Market Problems
Coach thinks T-rates could turn higher from here. That could cause a few problems. https://t.co/rnBUpVg4z1
Gold Bull Run Set for $6‑7K Amid US Policy Fear
My take with @WallStBullion on why the GOLD BULL is here to stay: "Gold will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. People are worried erratic US policy. They don't want to get trapped in the dollar system for fear of sanctions. So they...
China’s Rare Earth Export Decline Exposes Deal Fragility
China. Drop in exports to the US. Rare earth minerals. What happened to the deal with China? The art of the quick “deal” meets political reality.