Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced strict cobalt export quotas—18,125 tonnes for Q4 2025 and 96,600 tonnes for 2026—while reserving 10% of production as a strategic stockpile. The policy, aimed at curbing smuggling, stabilising prices and capturing more domestic value, instantly disrupted global supply chains. China, which refines roughly 65% of the world’s cobalt, saw refined‑cobalt prices more than double and inventory drops of 37%. Analysts now expect the market to shift from a long‑standing surplus to a deficit by 2026, reshaping EV and battery sourcing strategies.
$USOIL monthly - The Israeli-U.S. strike in Iran will propel the price of crude oil to the 1st yearly resistance at 73.90. Above that there's the June 2025 high at 77.64. These are the 2 potential upside targets for next...
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in February, pouring Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities, with Rs 19,782 crore going to secondary markets and Rs 2,832 crore to primary issues. However, a sharp sell‑off on February 28 saw FIIs dump Rs 7,536 crore, dragging the Nifty and Sensex...
Is Crude Oil Becoming a Rally to Sell? US crude and liquid fuel net exports approaching 4 million barrels a day in 2026 -- the highest ever -- may be a primary price-pressure factor for oil. My graphic shows an annual...
The Port of Yokohama remains Japan’s busiest container gateway, handling millions of TEUs each year and accommodating the world’s largest vessels. Its deep‑water berths link Japan’s export‑heavy industries—automobiles, electronics, food—to markets across Asia, North America and Europe. Beyond logistics, the...
Can you afford not to know what’s coming next? We are entering one of the most significant geopolitical and economic shifts of our lifetime. Power balances are changing. Conflict cycles are accelerating. Markets and global systems are entering a new phase. Global Forecaster...
Vanguard Fund’s India portfolio surged, now valued at ₹69,100 crore, a 60% jump from the March quarter. The fund holds stakes in 48 BSE‑listed companies, placing it among the top three active foreign institutional investors in the country. Twelve of its...
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced they will resume attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, ending a four‑month lull. BIMCO warns that ships linked to US or Israeli interests face heightened risk, though...
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to suspend Japan’s 8 percent consumption tax on food for two years to ease inflation pressures. The proposal meets skepticism from economists and small‑business groups who argue the cut may not translate into lower retail prices....
The recent pre‑emptive Israeli strike on Iran has reignited geopolitical tension, prompting a sharp rally in precious metals. While Indian MCX gold and silver futures slipped modestly on Friday, COMEX prices surged, with gold up 2% to $5,296 per ounce...
The U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 decision struck down IEEPA‑based tariffs, removing the worst‑case tariff risk for Chinese e‑commerce firms. The market’s initial rally faded as investors fretted over a possible 15% global tariff, creating a temporary dip in Alibaba...
Macro: BTC $70k. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
USDJPY recorded a solid monthly gain in February as Japan's inflation slipped lower, strengthening expectations of a more dovish Bank of Japan. The currency pair’s upward momentum has reignited speculation that it could approach a multi‑decade high. Elliott Wave analysts...
Lithium bottom: demand +25% as EV/ESS rebound; SQM+Codelco JV raises low-cost supply, tightens cost curve; prices ≈70% below 2022 — overweight low-cost lithium producers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
🔥We are probably not bullish on gold enough: China's official gold holdings are now worth a record $370 BILLION, doubling in just 1.5 years. The value has more than TRIPLED since 2022. China is buying 10 TIMES more gold than it officially reports👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka‑shing's CK Infrastructure Group agreed to sell UK Power Networks to French utility Engie for £10.5 billion (about $14.2 billion). The deal, slated for mid‑2026, is part of a sweeping portfolio overhaul that includes potential divestments of ports and...
Macro: global growth cools; central banks pause. Key factors: easing inflation, mixed earnings, USD strength. Risks: policy missteps, China slowdown. Trade: short EUR/USD. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Major news to track on February 27, 2026: 1. The Friday Power-Play: Malaysia's Economy in the Crosshairs A critical convergence of geopolitics and capital is reshaping Malaysia’s financial landscape this morning. From high-stakes Cabinet decisions on US tariffs to the largest...
Argentina’s Senate approved President Javier Milei’s Labor Modernization Act, a sweeping overhaul that lengthens the workday to 12 hours, cuts severance payouts, eases firing, and curtails union activity. The legislation aims to bring the country’s 40% informal workforce into the formal sector,...
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the December quarter, a deceleration from 8.4% in the prior quarter, driven by weaker agriculture, non‑manufacturing output and reduced government spending. The statistics ministry’s revised base year projects FY25‑26 GDP at 7.6%, up from 7.1%...
EU proposes CBAM treatment for pre-consumer aluminium and steel scrap to curb circumvention and boost traceability. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/eu-cbam-pre-consumer-scrap-proposal.html
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
The Trump administration has escalated threats of military action against Iran while covert nuclear talks continue, and Tehran’s state media claim the pressure is a distraction linked to the Epstein scandal. In parallel, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit...
Our community is buzzin' about this 5 min clip from this week's Macro Pro Q&A Show https://t.co/MxH68qpK7Y
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
Escalating clashes along the Pakistan‑Afghanistan border have intensified after Taliban‑aligned drones struck Pakistani military camps in Miranshah and Spinwam, prompting Islamabad to launch airstrikes on Afghan cities, including Kabul. The violence shatters the October cease‑fire and revives fears of a...
Qatar Airlines is pausing cargo operations as the Iran strikes play out. Prices and transit times on Asia to Europe air freight spiking.
Germany’s manufacturing capacity utilization is only running at 77.5% in January. Its long-term average since 1991 is 83.2%. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE A DEADLY ONE - TWO PUNCH. https://t.co/S87Xs4GTJY
U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a January 2026 raid, removing the military threat to Guyana’s Essequibo region and clearing the path for the country’s oil expansion. Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with Chevron and CNOOC,...
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Tariffs and "International Payments Problems" https://t.co/A8fIZJSUSB It has long been accepted that tariffs (eg Section 122) are an acceptable tool for managing BOP issues. The real question is whether they would be useful for the U.S. in 2026. https://t.co/CDdBRF2zxx
A G7‑backed price cap on Russian oil, introduced in 2022, is shown to boost near‑term extraction while curbing global oil prices and volatility. The cap neutralizes market power and reduces the option value of holding reserves, shifting producer incentives toward...
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1
The United States publicly affirmed its support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself against attacks by Afghanistan’s Taliban, whom Washington designates as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. The statement follows a rapid escalation after Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory...
#PAKWatch🇵🇰: Trump on intervention in Afghanistan–Pakistan: “I would, but I get along very well with Pakistan—great PM, great general, leaders that I respect. Pakistan is doing terrifically well.” More evidence of Trump’s PIVOT away from India towards Pakistan. https://t.co/aEvLxL5Ygh
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
Brent DFL rolling into contango suggests the market is fading the Iran oil disruption risk @Rory_Johnston A US strike will probably still happen But traders aren’t pricing sustained barrels off the market. #Oil #Brent #Iran #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics
The potential U.S. conflict with Iran will create an interesting dilemma regarding weapons re-arming and supply chains. Rare earth elements will come under even greater scrutiny, especially given the already strained trade relationship with China.
In January 2026 the United States orchestrated the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, installing an interim administration that quickly aligned with Washington. President Donald Trump has since proclaimed control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sealing new contracts with U.S....
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
Oil prices jumped to eight‑month highs on Friday as diplomatic hopes between the United States and Iran faded, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude breached the $85‑per‑barrel mark while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $80. Traders cited potential supply...
#CubaWatch 🇨🇺: Today, I measure Cuba’s inflation rate at 49.0%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FIFTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. SOCIALISM = POVERTY. https://t.co/62I1XycBU8
The S&P 500 is headed for its first RED month since April 2025. Meanwhile, GOLD is headed for its 8th consecutive GREEN month. That’s gold’s longest winning streak in history. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/sNJYx0tj3z
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to finish at 48,977.92 after a hotter‑than‑expected producer price index showed 0.5% inflation in January. The broader market fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% and the Nasdaq off 0.92%, as...
I discuss market conditions, key markets to watch, core themes and top global macro event risk (including #NFPs) for next week's trading in this week ahead video: https://t.co/lp8DLESugk https://t.co/0HVj5C19GQ
US recycled PET (rPET) demand remains weak, prompting concerns at the Plastics Recycling Conference. The recent shutdown of Evergreen Recycling’s Ohio and New York plants cuts domestic processing capacity by roughly 16%, tightening an already strained market. Low‑priced imports and abundant...
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
