Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Central Budget Sent to Legislative Committee Review
Taiwan's central government submitted its FY2026 general budget to legislative committees, ending a six‑month stalemate. Premier Cho Jung‑tai highlighted an 8.68% economic growth rate, the highest in 15 years, and a market‑capitalization surge to $4.14 trillion, placing the stock market seventh globally. The budget projects $90.9 billion in revenue against $101 billion in spending, creating a $9.9 billion shortfall to be financed by borrowing. Debt‑to‑GDP is slated to fall to 26.4%, while salary hikes for security forces total a 14% increase since 2016.
UN’s Maritime Agency Prepares Hormuz Evacuation Plan for Hundreds of Ships
The International Maritime Organization is drafting a humanitarian evacuation corridor for roughly 800 vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf after the US‑Israel strikes on Iran halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The plan, which would use the long‑standing Traffic...
IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Reveal Debt Stress as China Demands Quota Reform
The IMF and World Bank’s April 13‑18 spring sessions underscored soaring debt distress across emerging economies and a $20‑$50 billion loan demand, while China’s central bank chief called for IMF quota reform and tighter oversight of advanced economies. The dual pressure...
Stocks Turn Lower on Iran Worries: Stock Market Today
U.S. equity markets opened higher Tuesday but closed lower as geopolitical tension over Iran’s cease‑fire and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. UnitedHealth Group posted a beat‑and‑raise quarter, lifting its full‑year EPS outlook to $18.25, while Apple fell 2.5% after announcing...
Iraqi Dinar Surges to 154,500 per Dollar Amid Political Deadlock
The Iraqi dinar rose sharply to 154,500 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday after the Coordination Framework failed to name a prime‑minister nominee. The move reverses a post‑ceasefire rally and underscores how political uncertainty is pressuring Iraq’s emerging‑market currency.
Thailand Secures $13.5 B Emergency Loan as Middle East Conflict Hits Finances
Thailand’s cabinet approved an emergency decree to borrow ฿500 billion (about $13.5 billion) to shore up public finances strained by the Israel‑Iran conflict. The move comes as the 2027 budget is limited to a 0.2% spending increase, highlighting the country’s tightening fiscal...
ECB Likely to Hold Rates Next Week, Keeps June Hike Option Alive
ING THINK analysts forecast that the European Central Bank will leave policy rates unchanged at its April meeting, while preserving the option to raise rates in June. The stance reflects lingering inflation risks and is set to shape euro‑zone sovereign...
Former USDA Economist Explains What’s Driving the U.S. Ag Trade Deficit
Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber told Brownfield that the U.S. agricultural trade deficit is shrinking, dropping from $6.5 billion in January 2025 to $1.75 billion in January 2026. He emphasized that the deficit reflects low export prices rather than a loss...
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Thunes Launches Real‑time NZD Payments, Expanding Direct Global Network in New Zealand
Thunes has rolled out real‑time NZD payments to New Zealand, allowing members of its Direct Global Network to move money instantly to local bank accounts. The move deepens the Singapore‑based fintech’s Asia‑Pacific footprint as the region’s digital‑trade volume is projected to...
Op/Ed: Oil Shocks Will Keep Coming. High-Speed Rail Can Boost Our Resilience.
Oil price volatility tied to the Strait of Hormuz threatens U.S. security and consumer costs, prompting calls for a resilient, electrified transport network. California is advancing a high‑speed rail system powered by renewable electricity, positioning it as the backbone of...
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
India, Taiwan Get Time Till October to Settle ICT Tariff Dispute
India and Taiwan asked the WTO dispute settlement body to postpone the adoption of a ruling on India’s ICT import duties until October 27. The dispute, launched in 2019, concerns India’s tariff that rose from 7.5% to 20% to spur domestic...
Iran Talks on Hold because of Trump’s Blockade
Iran has refused to send its negotiating team to Islamabad, demanding that President Donald Trump lift the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before talks resume. Trump, who hinted negotiations could restart soon, has kept the blockade in...
Why China’s Exports Will Keep on Rising
China’s export momentum is accelerating, with semiconductor shipments leading the surge. In the first quarter of 2026, Chinese firms shipped transistors—particularly IGBTs—up 26% in dollar terms versus the same period a year earlier. The growth spans diverse markets, from motorbike...
Ethiopia Risks UK Courts over Failed Bond Restructuring
Ethiopia’s sole $1 billion international bond restructuring collapsed after official creditors rejected a draft deal, citing comparability of treatment concerns. The bondholder steering committee responded with a pre‑action letter, warning it will seek enforcement in English courts in May. Negotiations on...
Consumer Spending: Feeling the Impact of War
In this episode, host Mandy Drury and ComBank Senior Economist Ashwin Clark examine how Australian consumers have fared amid the Iran war and rising energy costs. They note that after a strong 2025 where real household spending grew over 2.5%...
Wall Street Dips as Middle East Concerns Dent Earnings Optimism
U.S. equities fell Tuesday as renewed Middle East tensions eclipsed earnings optimism. The Dow slipped 0.34%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% and the Nasdaq fell 0.28% after reports of Hezbollah rocket fire and uncertainty over a U.S.-Iran cease‑fire. Strong corporate results,...
The White Swallow or the Next Puppet? Radev's Bulgaria at the Crossroads
Former air force chief Rumen Radev’s newly formed "Progressive Bulgaria" party clinched a parliamentary majority in a surprise election, toppling the entrenched pro‑European elite. The author contends that Bulgaria’s EU and NATO membership has deepened systemic corruption, demographic decline, and...
GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis...
Breakbulk26: Maritime Partnerships Transcend Uncertainty Amid Middle East War
The ongoing Middle East war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, forcing cargoes to detour to ports in Sri Lanka and India. At the Breakbulk26 conference, logistics leaders stressed that strong vendor‑client relationships are essential to navigate such disruptions. Experts highlighted...
India, Korea Ink MoU to Boost MSME Ties
India and the Republic of Korea have signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen cooperation in the micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) sector. The MoU establishes a structured framework for continuous dialogue, expert exchanges, business matchmaking, and joint technical...
Warsh Signals Evolution, Not Revolution at the Fed
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony highlighted a push for gradual, not radical, changes at the Federal Reserve. He reiterated long‑held criticism of the Fed’s oversized balance sheet and advocated slow, predictable reductions while relying on interest‑rate tools rather than balance‑sheet adjustments....
Iran's Oil Stockpile Bypasses US Blockade, Sales to China Persist
My take w/ @WallStBullion on the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: "Iran has ~180m barrels of oil floating outside the Strait. Even with the US blockade, revenue from oil sales will keep flowing into Iran. Iran will be able...
Stop Treasury's TGA Use to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet
One serious way to reduce demand for reserves--which is the only way you can reduce the balance sheet from here--is to get Treasury to stop using the TGA. Treasury's use of the TGA both increases the minimum necessary size of...
Larger €9bn Surplus Forecast Increases Pressure on Coalition for Spending Increases
Ireland’s latest fiscal forecasts show the general government surplus jumping from about €5 billion ($5.5 bn) to over €9 billion ($9.8 bn) for 2024, driven by stronger growth and data‑centre investment. The projection lifts the spending ceiling by €700 million ($763 m) to €118.5 billion ($129 bn) and...
Stagflation Dead Ahead! | Chance Finucane
Chief Investment Officer Chance Finucane of Oxbow Advisors warns that the oil price shock from the Iran conflict is igniting a fresh inflation surge that could drag growth into stagflation. He believes markets are already pricing a near‑term de‑escalation, leaving...
‘I Thought the Oil Would Be Much Higher’: Trump’s Rosy Iran War Spin Risks Sending Traders the Wrong Message
President Donald Trump told CNBC he was surprised the U.S. economy and oil prices held up during the Iran conflict, saying he expected oil at $200 per barrel but saw it near $90. His upbeat remarks came as cease‑fire talks...
U.K. Job Postings Hit 5-Year Low As Employers Turn Cautious
UK employers posted the fewest job vacancies in almost five years, with vacancies slipping to 711,000 in the March quarter. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.9% as a surge in inactive students boosted the inactivity rate. Average weekly earnings growth eased...
QT Arguments Clash with QE-Driven Inflation Narrative
You see a lot of people try to argue that quantitative tightening didn’t tank markets and reduce inflation because it came out of the RRP. But you can’t argue this if you also argue that QE going into the RRP...
Politico Argues that Europe’s Push to Break Free From U.S. Tech Dependency Is Necessary but Costly, Complicated, and Far From...
European governments are accelerating efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. cloud and software providers after concerns that the Trump administration could weaponize the continent's dependence. Amazon, Microsoft and Google now control about 70% of the EU cloud market, while U.S....
QE: Reverse Robin Hood, Stealing From Poor, Enriching Rich
Bravo, Mr. Warsh, for speaking the truth and not repeating Bernanke's jibberish. "QE is reverse Robin Hood. It’s policy that steals from the poor, to give to the rich." - Kevin Warsh "Higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and...
Europe’s 450 M Consumers Offer Leverage over China
Mertz nails it - 450 mio CONSUMERS is what Europe is - and that gives us leverage against the world’s factory - China. But only if we team up with someone who has tech and hard power.
The Middle Corridor Emerges as a Strategic Lifeline for Global Trade
The World Bank and partners pledged $3.3 billion on April 14‑15 to upgrade the Middle Corridor, including $1.9 billion for Turkey’s Istanbul North Rail Crossing and $1.4 billion for Kazakhstan’s Karagandy‑Zhezkazgan highway. Geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s war in Ukraine...
Kallas Pushes Free Hormuz Passage, Hints Toll
Kallas is arguing for free passage through Hormuz. Sounds like someone is brewing on building a tollbooth
Trump’s War Tactics Alienate Key Asian Allies
My take on the Trump's war strategy on @MarioNawfal: "Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and India are under the gun. The US-Israeli war has imposed massive costs on them. Now they are pivoting away from the US." TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW...
#167 - Andrew Lilico - Britain Is Poorer Than The Poorest US State
In this episode, Andrew Lilico argues that the UK has slipped from being wealthier than the average US state in 2008 to now being poorer than the poorest US state, warning of a looming fiscal crisis within the next decade....
Trade Official's Import Limits Raised Fertilizer Costs for Farmers
"If the president is worried about high fertilizer prices, he might want to have a conversation with his top trade official... [who] lobbied for policies that limited fertilizer imports and drove up prices for American farmers." Drain. The. Swamp. https://t.co/IU5lNBpAfN https://t.co/OcSBv6gDxx
History Shows Tariffs Deepened the Great Depression
"This did not come as a surprise to students of economic history. We have studied the Tariff regime in the 1930s, which more or less had the exact same results. They may not have caused the Great Depression, but they...
Europe, Atlantic Crude Tanker Rates at Pre-War Levels
Atlantic and European crude tanker rates have retreated to pre‑war levels as surplus vessels shift from the Middle East Gulf to other routes. The Black Sea‑Mediterranean Suezmax price fell from $57.19 per ton to $27.69 per ton within two days....
Prediction Market Gives 35% Chance Hormuz Traffic Normal by May 15
Since energy and capital markets are growing increasingly complacent on US-Iran headlines, have to look to more direct prediction markets to get actual takes on progress. Kalshi's market for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal by May...
Europe Still Buying U.S. Defense Amid Domestic‑Buy Talk
Interesting detail from today’s Northrop Grumman Q1 earnings call re. European demand. Despite political messaging in Europe about buying domestically and reducing reliance on U.S. suppliers, Northrop made clear that European customers remain highly engaged buyers of American systems.
Inflation Rose to 3% Ahead of Trump's Tariffs
it actually rose to 3% in Biden's last two months, it had been lowerl, but people began buyingh stuff in advance of Trump's tariffs, pushing prices higher on things like cars and cameras. But this stuff is too complicated for...
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
New BOK Governor Emphasizes Inflation Control and Financial Stability
Interesting passage from @HyunSongShin's first speech as governor of the Bank of Korea: https://t.co/usPzjCjld0 https://t.co/DePG6zH4MH
Warsh Denies President Asked About Rate Cuts
Warsh says reports that the president asked him if he would lower rates if nominated were fake news.
Fed Must Prioritize Chronic Inflation Risk Management
Warsh addressed none of this in his nomination hearing. FTR, I think inflation is more of a chronic risk than an acute problem, but risk management is central to what the Fed is supposed to be about.
China May Follow Iraq Model for Gulf Deals
Wait for things to shake out and then make deals with Gulf states on the other side, leveraging its own offerings? Iraq, where China is a dominant player in the upstream, maybe an instructive precedent for China ...
Inflation Trajectory Improves, but Work Remains Ahead
Warsh: the trajectory on inflation is improving, but there's more work to do This may well serve as a summary of his testimony as well.