Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.

The article reviews evidence that central banks which pushed policy rates slightly below zero—most notably in the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark and Japan—generated additional economic stimulus without triggering major disruptions. Empirical observations show that corporate deposit and wholesale funding rates fell below zero, loan‑rate pass‑through remained positive (often above 50% in the euro zone), and overall banking profitability was not harmed and could even improve. In contrast, household deposit rates hit the zero lower bound, limiting pass‑through to consumers. The author cautions that while modestly negative rates appear workable, deeper cuts remain controversial.
tough look for Jensen and @DavidSacks and everyone arguing to keeping the China market open to older US chips (myself included) The case against export controls was always: sell to China so theres no market for their own. But they're...
CSX Chief Executive Steve Angel told investors that flat industrial production worldwide is the primary reason railroad freight volumes have stagnated. He noted that China’s growth engine has faded, Europe never delivered growth, and emerging markets lack the scale to...
Expeditors International reported a weak fourth quarter 2025, with ocean freight tonnage down 6% year‑over‑year and revenue slipping 3% to $2.86 billion. Operating income fell 17% to $250.9 million and net income dropped to $200.7 million, while salaries and other expenses rose 6%....
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
The Mediterranean gasoline market is diverging from northwest Europe as several key fluid catalytic cracker units undergo maintenance, notably Helleniq Energy’s Aspropyrgos refinery in Greece and Eni’s Milazzo refinery in Italy. With offshore capacity constrained, February‑March spreads have turned backwardated—a...
USD/JPY rose to 155.70 on Tuesday, up 0.64% after hitting a daily high of 156.28. The move follows comments from Japan’s prime minister signaling caution on further BoJ rate hikes, which have kept yen pressure alive. Technically, the pair sits...

Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....

Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports reached a record ¥1.7 trillion in 2025, up 12.8% year‑on‑year, marking the 13th consecutive record. Growth was driven by strong demand for scallops, green tea and sake, with the United States and China remaining the...
Poland’s ferrous scrap exports to non‑EU markets slipped 8.6% in 2025, falling to 1.204 million tonnes after three years of growth. Shipments to India, Pakistan and Morocco dropped sharply, while volumes to Turkey rose 2.4% and exports to the United States...
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...

U.S. insurers remain optimistic about 2026 investment conditions, with 76% of survey respondents seeing improving opportunities despite expectations of higher inflation, tighter liquidity and lower Fed rates. The optimism is driven by higher yields on high‑quality fixed‑income securities and attractive...
Motiva announced a $0.50 per US‑gallon reduction to its Group II, II+ and III base‑oil postings, effective 1 March. The cut could translate into contract price declines of 10‑15¢/USG for parties linked to Motiva’s postings or to basket indices, while blenders with...
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the digital euro as a core part of her legacy, noting its progress from research to a live policy effort. The project is now in a "preparation phase" with technical design and pilot...
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
Your ad account looks fine: - ROAS is holding - CPMs are manageable - Conversions are flowing But your spreadsheet is screaming. As of February 2026, the average US tariff rate sits at 17% on all imports. For DTC brands...
The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) plans to strip Turkey of its developing‑economy exemption for hot‑dip galvanised (HDG) steel, moving Turkish shipments into the capped “other countries” quota. The move follows Tata Steel’s complaint that Turkish imports surged to 58,030 t...

S&P 500 Industrials’ forward P/E, at 26.5X, matches sector P/E in 2021, when earnings were impaired by the pandemic, and at 1.24X the index, is higher than at any point in the last 30 years. EV/Forward EBITDA, Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book...

Cartel violence erupted in Mexico after the killing of leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, halting flights and disrupting tourism in Puerto Vallarta. Tourism, which contributes about 10% of Mexico’s GDP, faces short‑term setbacks and longer‑term perception risks. AM Best issued a negative...
Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20, 2026 that the International Economic Emergency Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The decision directly challenges the wave of tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump during his second term,...

The IMF’s South Africa mission chief expects Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to keep the primary budget surplus at 1.5% of GDP and to embed the necessary fiscal reforms in the 2026 budget. The Fund highlighted controlling the public‑sector wage bill,...

Germany’s strategic relationship with Russia has unraveled since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trade collapsed, with imports from Russia falling from €36.4 billion in 2022 to €1.8 billion by 2024, while German aid to Kyiv topped €90 billion. Energy dependence vanished as Russian...

After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...

The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
Guinea’s newly elected president Mamady Doumbouya hosted a high‑profile inauguration attended by U.S. officials and a Chinese envoy, underscoring the country’s strategic importance. With roughly a quarter of global bauxite reserves and emerging lithium, uranium and iron‑ore projects, Guinea sits...
Gold ( XAUUSD ) : Macro picture remains the same as told earlier. Current move is simply a small profit taking move before next leg higher , which is common after such quick bullish moves. I remain bullish. 5080s - 5100s looks...
A FoodDrinkEurope survey shows Europe has slipped to third place as a preferred location for food and drink manufacturing investment, behind Asia and North America. Only 31% of CEOs view Europe as attractive, yet 51% still plan to increase spending...

South Korea’s headline unemployment rate hovers around 4%, but a hidden youth recession is emerging as roughly 470,000 young adults are “resting” – neither employed nor job‑searching. Hiring for entry‑level positions has fallen for three consecutive years, with large firms...
If you missed my client post November 26: "Sell The Rumor of Consumer Cyclical Slowdown; Buy The News." Or December 12: "ROTATION & RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS" Or January 6th: "2025: METALS ARE THE NEW OIL 2026: BOOMER STOCKS ARE THE NEW INFLATIONARY ASSETS" HALO has...
🚨 Trump State of Union Tonight. The Yen Is Collapsing. Pay Attention Dollar surging across the board Yen crashed 1% overnight as Japan's PM fights the BOJ on rate hikes Dow broke below the 50 SMA for the first time this year -...
Stripe’s annual letter is out: https://t.co/N0TpoPbs6T The biggest highlight is relatively consistent every year: the Internet economy is growing faster than the rest of the economy. This has compounded for enough years that it is essentially _the_ growth engine in places.
Germany is finding out that “de-risking” from China is painful when dependencies have previously been knowingly created. Chinese price advantages & deliberate dumping are hurting German cos. via @JamesAngelos @Jordyn_Dahl @POLITICOEurope https://t.co/g7oYgu9xEX

🔬 Research links: the problem with macro data, why bots love bad news, and how to use calendar-based strategies. https://t.co/gUmyuaWsPO chart: https://t.co/9NGWAEXTU1 https://t.co/QufnB6WSHu

Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Iran is pumping and loading at near-2018 highs ahead of nuclear talks Loadings are surging, buyers are softer, and oil-on-water is piling up More leverage, more risk, thinner margins. https://t.co/AZPC1zaGls #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Sanctions #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets

Wow, a respondent to the Dallas Fed's Service Sector report said that the prices they're paying for memory chips have jumped 50% in the last two weeks https://t.co/RdULT0epp4

Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...

US Federal Budget Deficit as a % of GDP... 1950s: -0.4% 1960s: -0.7% 1970s: -1.9% 1980s: -3.8% 1990s: -2.1% 2000s: -2.3% 2010s: -4.8% 2020s: -8.3% https://t.co/W7GwqCkcBx
Nearly 300 entities linked to Russian energy and military production have been added to the UK’s sanctions lists, including a network of oil traders whose vast reach was identified by the FT as the result of an IT blunder. https://t.co/Bky4oWVd2S
Yesterday, Ukraine turned on Slovakia and Hungary. Ukrainian operatives blew up the main node of the Druzhba oil pipeline that supplies 100% of Slovakia's oil and 86% of Hungary's oil. UKRAINE = TURNS ON TWO MEMBERS IN NATO. https://t.co/ItvWWCVJb5
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1

On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 86% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA NEEDS DOLLARIZE NOW. https://t.co/HI0TlTBYyv
Countries and export options other than the US. Trump flat tariff. Will importers front load like before? Five years and continuing supply chain importance.

The personal savings rate in the US averaged 4.5% in 2025. History since 1959... https://t.co/umS9AR2N61
What will Trump do with tariff that expire in 150 days? What next? What are China’s countermeasures? What will supply chains do now? After these tariffs expire? Prepare or react?
My views in @FortuneMagazine on President Trump’s tariffs: “Contrary to President Trump’s assertions, trade deficits are not produced by foreigners ripping off Americans. Trade deficits are produced by Americans spending more than they produce." https://t.co/LtaB5SgFSN