Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
Democratic lawmakers condemned President Trump’s unilateral strikes on Iran, labeling them dangerous and unnecessary. They are pushing a Senate‑originated War Powers Resolution to require congressional approval before any further US military action against Iran. The effort has attracted bipartisan backing, with Republicans such as Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul co‑sponsoring the measure. Congressional leaders are demanding an immediate classified briefing on the intelligence and threat assessment behind the attacks.
South Korea’s exports surged 29% year‑over‑year in February, hitting a record high. The jump was driven primarily by a sharp rebound in semiconductor shipments as global chip demand accelerated. The trade surplus expanded sharply, reinforcing the country’s position as a...
https://t.co/U4SkF1hAbc @UBS boosting its copper price target is just the latest confirmation of what we’ve been warning about for years: the world is flying head-first into a structural copper shortage. A projected $15,000/tonne copper price by 2027… and a half-million-tonne supply deficit...
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
NYDIG research chief Greg Cipolaro argues that Bitcoin’s trajectory will be shaped more by AI’s macroeconomic impact than by its own technology. He highlights that AI‑driven automation could cut jobs, suppress consumer demand, and trigger central‑bank liquidity responses that may...
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Iran has evacuated all large oil tankers from the Persian Gulf, a maneuver that lifted its crude exports to the strongest levels seen since 2017. The clearance follows a recent attack on Iranian interests, which Tehran frames as a catalyst...
How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5Rh1Ysyc2w https://t.co/XMEM6rLIOY
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes have shone a spotlight on Iran’s parallel crypto economy, now estimated at $7.78 billion. Since legalising mining in 2019, Tehran subsidises electricity for licensed operators who sell Bitcoin to the central bank, using it to bypass...
Visionary investor @ctindale takes on THE big question: How did America and the West become so dependent on imports for almost everything we use? Tindale says the Western focus on the financial economy over the material economy has led to a...
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Kazakh miner QazMoly is close to securing up to $240 million from the U.S. Export‑Import Bank to fund its Drozhilov tungsten project, provided all output is sold to U.S. buyers. The financing would cover a large share of the mine’s capital...
🚨 OPERATION EPIC FURY — Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel launched a massive military campaign against Iran at 1:15 AM ET. Regime change is the stated goal. Iran retaliated, striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE. US officials say...
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in retaliation for recent U.S. and Israeli strikes. All four Gulf states’ air defenses intercepted most of the projectiles, though debris caused at least one...
Quite good actually; The recent read on PMI gave a big outlier: 57.7 The highest read since May '22. It doesn't say that we immediately need to pump with #Bitcoin or whatsoever, although it gives an indication of where the economy and markets...
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
A U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran broke over the weekend, prompting immediate reactions in precious‑metal markets. Because traditional markets are closed, the first price signal came from crypto‑linked gold tokens, with Tether Gold jumping 1.57% to about $5,341 per...
Egyptian fertilizer producers Mopco and Alexfert each sold 6,000 t of granular urea for March loading, pricing the cargoes at $505/t and $495/t FOB respectively. The transactions reflect a price jump after the United States launched major combat operations in Iran...
DoubleLine’s Monthly Market Commentary delivers a concise, multi‑asset review for investors, advisers and institutions. Each edition synthesizes recent moves in fixed income, equities, credit and commodities while tying them to macroeconomic data and central‑bank actions. The report also breaks down...
The United States and Israel’s escalating attacks on Iran have revived questions about Hezbollah’s strategic value as Tehran’s premier proxy. After a costly 2024 war with Israel, Hezbollah’s long‑range strike capability and leadership have been severely degraded, while the Lebanese...
Bank of America projects Philippine GDP growth at 4.6% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, falling short of the economy’s 5.5‑6.5% sustainable range. The slowdown is driven by weak household consumption, softer private investment and a tapering of government disbursements...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects February inflation to rise to between 2.3% and 3.1%, up from January’s 2% rate. Higher rice and fish prices, elevated petroleum costs and increased Meralco electricity charges are the main upward pressures, while...
The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping...
Hours before President Donald Trump announced air strikes on Iran, Oman's foreign minister Badr Albusaidi appeared on CBS's Face the Nation and declared a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal within reach. He said Iran had pledged zero stockpiling of weapons‑grade material and...
Oil tankers are increasingly bypassing the Strait of Hormuz following the US and Israel airstrikes on Iran, prompting major shipping lines to issue cautionary directives. While the waterway remains officially open, Bloomberg tracking shows a buildup of idle vessels both...
1/8 I predicted the Great Recession 3 years before it happened. It might sound ridiculous, but mainstream economists have convinced themselves that private debt does not matter. They only monitor government debt. EconomicTheory
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
Here’s what we wrote in our last macro memo on January 13th, should become a much more interesting trade over the coming weeks: https://t.co/iqiIN2DGsB
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Here's a list of major geopolitical events since WWII. Up a median of 5% six months later. All of them felt really bad at the time. https://t.co/Jb3QXL0L05
If this is the day that Khamenei is killed, Iran is being attacked by the U.S. And the markets aren't down at all. Then there's not really any argument left for uncertainty anymore and I would expect #Bitcoin to turn upwards. https://t.co/5S5RfEOLqd
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? ▶️Danger to Shipping ▶️US and UK Waring ▶️Impact for Consumers ▶️Other Factors Impacting Global Tanker Market ▶️Is US Sealift & Afloat Prepositioning Moving? Video: https://t.co/SgdGJdWaSD https://t.co/Cvj3mRaiq7
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly warned that no vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade of the channel, which carries ~20% of global oil, threatens massive energy price spikes and severe, immediate disruptions...
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
Where will the next wave of global growth come from? 🌊 @McKinsey_MGI breaks down the 18 industries, from AI to healthcare, set to drive up to $48 trillion in revenue by 2040. These 🔟 charts visualize the future of competition: https://t.co/MURdZJwPdW...
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...
The quiet part here is that Canadian universities will get a business development opportunity without Indian students coming to Canada and seeking to work & stay, as they had under Trudeau policies which saw their numbers grow exponentially.
It is notable that PM Carney has put Canada behind regime change by US force in Venezuela & in Iran. I believe this is a departure from the traditional position Canada takes on the global stage, but eager to hear...
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
Iran is sending out warnings on VHF announcing the banning of all ships from the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic is still moving. What's Going on with Shipping will be monitoring traffic through the Strait. https://t.co/0rPIFY825Q
News feed cleanse and the nerdiest post you'll see all weekend. The EU's new Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) rules will also apply to goods manufactured in special economic zones and export processing zones. Which is pretty cool.
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
