Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Bank Indonesia Holds Rates, Prioritises Rupiah Stability
Bank Indonesia left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 4.75%, matching market expectations, as fuel subsidies keep inflation near 3.5% and reduce the need for a hawkish stance. The central bank highlighted rupiah stability, noting the currency remains undervalued and pledging continued foreign‑exchange interventions. MSCI’s delayed market‑status review adds uncertainty for Indonesian equities, while the bank signals rates will stay on hold through the third quarter, with potential cuts later in the year. Future risks include oil price spikes that could strain fiscal balances and pressure the rupiah further.
EU Finds Chinese Bidder for Lisbon Subway Line Benefited From subsidies...Beijing Targets RMB 100 TN in Services Sector push...China Claims...
The European Commission concluded that a Chinese state‑owned CRRC unit received unfair subsidies in the Lisbon Violet Line bid, forcing the consortium to replace it with Poland’s PESA. Beijing announced a push to lift its services sector to roughly $14.7 trillion...
Is CMA CGM Taking a Red Sea Gamble?
CMA CGM is quietly re‑introducing Suez Canal transits after more than two years of avoiding the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks. The carrier’s 8,500‑TEU Tosca is already en route via Suez, and larger vessels such as the 16,020‑TEU Jules Verne and...
Commodity Traders Post Windfall Gains Amid Iran Conflict-Driven Market Turmoil
Commodity trading houses are logging multi‑billion‑dollar gains as the Iran conflict fuels extreme volatility in oil, copper and gold markets. Vitol alone is estimated to have earned about $2 bn in the first quarter, while Trafigura, Gunvor and Mercuria report record‑level...
Why Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair Will Not Bring Home the Bank for the President
President Donald Trump is pushing former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair, arguing that AI‑driven productivity gains justify lower interest rates. Warsh’s hawkish past and his call for cuts clash with the majority of the 11‑member...
ECB Flags Private Credit as Emerging Financial Stability Risk
The European Central Bank and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are both flagging private‑credit markets as emerging sources of financial‑system risk, citing liquidity strains and regulatory gaps. At the same time, private‑equity firms remain active: EQT unveiled an AI‑infrastructure...
Carney Names Members of New Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations
Prime Minister Mark Carney has overhauled the advisory body on Canada‑U.S. economic relations, replacing the Trudeau‑era Council on Canada‑U.S. Relations with a newly named Advisory Committee. The roster now features former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, ex‑Liberal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale,...
Iran War Begins to Fuel Inflation as Pay Awards Ease
The Iran‑Israel war has pushed UK energy costs higher, lifting CPI to 3.3% YoY in March and RPI to 4.1%. Fuel, airfares and food price gains were the main drivers, according to the ONS. Median basic pay awards peaked at...
India's Textile Exports Grow 2.1 Pc to Rs 3.16 Lakh Cr in 2025-26
India's textile exports rose 2.1% in FY 2026, reaching ₹3.16 lakh crore (about $38 billion), up from ₹3.09 lakh crore a year earlier. The sector weathered steep U.S. tariffs that peaked at 50% before a 10% universal tariff was imposed in early 2026. Ready‑made garments remained...
UK Inflation Rises After Iran War Pushes up Fuel Prices
UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.3% in the year to March, the first increase since February, as the Iran‑Israel conflict triggered the sharpest jump in petrol and diesel prices in over three years. Motor fuel surged 8.7% month‑on‑month and...
Gunfire and Gridlock Choke Hormuz
A Liberia‑flagged container ship was hit by IRGC gunfire 15 nautical miles northeast of Oman despite having permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has extended a land cease‑fire with Iran but kept a maritime blockade, boarding...
America First Fed? Trump Nominee Kevin Warsh Signals ‘Monetary Sovereignty’ Push: Analysts
Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, signaled a shift toward “monetary sovereignty,” prioritizing domestic productivity and tighter control of the Fed’s balance sheet. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, he pledged to work with the Treasury to...
Iran War Reflects the False Promise of US ‘Energy Dominance’
President Donald Trump’s claim of U.S. energy dominance is undermined by a 2025 net crude import of 2.2 million barrels per day and a refinery fleet tuned to medium‑sour blends from the Persian Gulf. The war in Iran and the temporary...
US Business Group Warns ‘Anti-Endo’ Law Could Hurt Philippine Jobs
The American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (AmCham) cautioned that the Senate’s proposed Anti‑Endo and Magna Carta for Workers in the Informal Economy bills could unintentionally curb foreign investment and erode the country’s competitive edge in Southeast Asia. While...
Interview with Asharq Bloomberg TV Dubai 22.04.2026
In a 22 April 2026 interview on Asharq Bloomberg TV, The Macro Butler warned that oil prices are as unreliable as central‑bank forecasts because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut by a naval blockade. He argued that the apparent stability of...
Hong Kong Productivity Council Partners with Malaysian Manufacturers
Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) and the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturing (FMM) signed a Memorandum of Understanding in Kuala Lumpur on April 20, 2026, establishing a deep strategic partnership. The alliance will blend HKPC’s R&D strength with FMM’s network of...
Philip R. Lane: Expanding the Supply of Euro Safe Assets
In a Frankfurt keynote, ECB Executive Board member Philip R. Lane warned that the euro area suffers from a chronic undersupply of euro‑denominated safe assets, with German Bunds alone too small to meet global demand. He outlined reforms that have...
Christopher J Waller: Modernising Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller outlined a roadmap to modernize the Fed’s operational backbone. He traced the system’s shift from a fully decentralized, paper‑centric model to today’s hybrid where payments, IT and fiscal‑agency work are already centralized. Waller proposed...
India’s Seafood Exports Hit Record Rs 72,325 Crore in FY 2025–26
India’s seafood exports reached a record Rs 72,325.82 crore (≈$8.28 bn) in FY 2025‑26, with volumes of 19.32 lakh metric tonnes. Frozen shrimp drove the surge, contributing Rs 47,973.13 crore (≈$5.51 bn) and accounting for over two‑thirds of earnings. While shipments to the...
Qatar Readies US LNG Plant for First Exports
Qatar is preparing to begin exports from its LNG plant in the US 🇶🇦🤝🇺🇸 An empty tanker docked at the Golden Pass facility in Texas this week. The plant is partially owned by QatarEnergy -- its only overseas LNG facility Exports from Qatar...
US Dominates South Korea with 75 Bases, Third‑largest Overseas Footprint
The US has 75 military bases in South Korea, the 3rd highest concentration of US foreign bases. In South Korea, Uncle Sam runs the show. https://t.co/A9l6MhQOa3
Why Iran Metabolizes the Pressure that Broke Venezuela
The article argues that U.S. policymakers misread how external pressure works on Iran, confusing it with the Venezuelan case. Iran’s resilience stems from a theocratic “resistance economy,” dual security structures, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which absorb and...
Olli Rehn: Geopolitical Turmoil and the Eurozone
Olli Rehn, the European Central Bank’s vice‑president, warned that the war in Iran and broader Middle‑East turmoil are delivering a negative terms‑of‑trade shock to the euro area, pushing inflation higher and slowing GDP growth. He reaffirmed the ECB’s medium‑term strategy...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 36%, Ranks 4th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 4TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 36% against the USD over the past year. https://t.co/1Z4zQZWauW
Rates Spark: Still Positioned for a Short-Lived Shock
ING rates strategist Michiel Tukker notes that European markets expect a brief inflationary shock, keeping the 10‑year EUR swap range tight between 3.0% and 3.1% over the past month. Oil price movements continue to drive the short end of the...
Iran Tankers Go Dark to Sail Past US Blockade Laden with Crude
Iranian VLCCs Hero II and Hedy, each capable of carrying about 4 million barrels, slipped past the U.S.‑declared blockade in the Arabian Sea on April 20. Satellite‑based data from Vortexa shows the two ships were part of a larger flotilla that moved roughly...
UK Inflation Heads Towards 4%, but Rate Hikes Off the Table for Now
UK headline CPI rose to 3.3% in March, with core services inflation holding at 4.2%. Energy price forecasts—oil at $90‑$100 per barrel and natural gas around €55 (≈$60) per MWh—suggest inflation will hover between 3.5% and 4% through the second...
Singapore’s Balakrishnan Warns Hormuz Just a ‘Dry Run’ if US, China Clash
Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the recent Strait of Hormuz disruption is merely a "dry run" for a larger superpower showdown, which he believes would play out in the Pacific. He emphasized that any US‑China conflict would threaten...
Funds Shift From Asia to Africa – How the Mauritius Jurisdiction Adapts to Accompany the Investment Trend
Mauritius‑based funds, long focused on India and other Asian markets, are reallocating capital toward Africa after the India‑Mauritius double‑tax treaty was renegotiated, eroding previous tax advantages. The continent’s rapid urbanisation, infrastructure needs, fintech boom and expanding middle class are offering...
North Korea's Won Plummets 69%, World's 2nd Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST CURRENCY. The won has depreciated over 69% against the USD in the past year. THE WON'S COLLAPSE REMAINS THE WORLD'S MOST UNDERREPORTED CURRENCY STORY. https://t.co/d4hUPUxkTp
India’s Drop to Sixth-Largest Economy Is a Temporary Blip, Says Nilesh Shah
India slipped from fourth to sixth place in the IMF’s ranking of world economies, a shift Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mutual Fund attributes to a change in the GDP base year and a roughly 10% rupee depreciation that pushed GDP...
Which Imports Really Matter for Inflation
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war has reignited global inflation, primarily through a sharp cut in crude oil supplies. Researchers Consonni and Magerman quantified each EU import’s inflationary impact with a Strategic Dependency Index, finding...
EU Trade Chief Heads to Washington Hoping to Unlock Steel Talks
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is traveling to Washington, his first trip since the July 2025 EU‑US trade deal, to break the deadlock on the 50 % U.S. tariffs imposed on European steel and aluminium. The original agreement called for quota arrangements to...
Delicate Extraction: Malaysia Offers Rare Earths Alternative to China
Australian miner Lynas is expanding its rare‑earth processing hub in Gebeng, Malaysia, aiming to grow its roughly 10% share of a market dominated 90% by China. The plant, the world’s largest single‑site processor, now handles 11 of the 17 rare...
Sarah Breeden: This Time Is Different?
Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden warned that while the financial system has shown remarkable resilience through six major shocks over the past six years, new vulnerabilities are emerging. She highlighted stronger bank capital and liquidity, but noted the...
Why US, Israel and Iran Are Headed for a Frozen Conflict
The article argues that the war between the United States, Israel and Iran is likely to settle into a frozen conflict rather than a comprehensive peace. It cites three drivers: President Trump’s habit of treating cease‑fires as victories, the asymmetric...
China's Biggest HK Yuan Bond Sale Hits Record‑low Yields
Bloomberg: "China’s biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023 drew record-low yields for both two- and 15-year debt, with two-year debt selling at a yield of 1.32% and 15-year debt at 2.08%." https://t.co/Q9FDkpbbJE
Foreign Companies Are Making Billions Off Australia’s Gas. It’s Time that Changed
Australia’s gas export boom has generated roughly A$149 billion (≈US$98 billion) in profits for multinational firms over the past four years, yet tax contributions remain minimal. A parliamentary inquiry is pushing a 25% export tax that could raise about A$17 billion (≈US$11 billion) annually...
Taiwan’s KMT Offers US an Off-Ramp From War with China
Taiwan’s opposition party, the Kuomintang, sent leader Cheng Li‑wun to Beijing for a week, where she met President Xi Jinping and framed Taiwan’s identity as culturally Chinese. Cheng highlighted shared heritage and proposed limited cross‑strait cooperation, signaling a diplomatic shift away...
Credit Crunch: Around the World of Global Credit in 60 Minutes
In this 60‑minute special, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit team walks through the latest dynamics across regions, starting with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) where Basel Al‑Wakayan notes a surprisingly resilient credit market post‑ceasefire, tighter sovereign spreads and a shift toward...
JP Morgan Stays Bearish on the Japanese Yen Amid Higher Energy Prices
JP Morgan maintains a medium‑ to long‑term bearish outlook on the Japanese yen as higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict strain Japan’s import‑dependent economy. The firm cites widening trade deficits and rising cost‑push inflation as key drivers of yen...
Pricier Condoms Show War Is Impacting Cost of Nearly Everything
Karex Bhd, which produces about one‑fifth of the world’s condoms, will raise prices up to 30% as the Iran war drives up petrochemical and raw‑material costs. Production expenses have climbed 25‑30% since the conflict began, with silicone oil up 30%, nitrile...
State‑owned Firms Boost Investment 24%, Spur Growth
1/2 Yicai: "The 100 companies owned by China's central government raised their fixed-asset investment by 24 percent to more than CNY1 trillion last quarter from a year ago, playing an important role in driving the country's overall economic growth." https://t.co/a1CUMZDz2A
How Long Can Iran Keep Hormuz Closed?
Iran can sustain a Hormuz shutdown for roughly three weeks using its on‑shore storage of about 86 million barrels, which is currently 54% full (≈47 million barrels). Four Iran‑linked VLCCs trapped in the strait could add another 8 million barrels, extending the window...
China, Russia Offer Discounted Gas, Bypass USD, Challenge Qatar
China and Russia building new natural gas pipelines to replace Nordstream. Asian countries being courted to buy natural gas at 40% discount to market rates. Won’t be priced in USD. Permanent shift from Qatar which will take years and billions...
Trump's Trade Wars Forcing Companies to Weigh US Value Proposition
President Donald Trump’s erratic trade agenda has left the U.S. seafood sector in a cloud of uncertainty. After a series of threatened tariffs—50% then 30%—the U.S. and EU settled on a 15% duty on European seafood in August 2025, with...
ECB Policymaker Kazāks Says Not in a Rush to Make a Move on Monetary Policy
ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazāks told investors that, despite heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, the central bank sees no immediate need to raise interest rates. He emphasized the "luxury" of time to collect more data before deciding...
The Clock Is Ticking on the EU’s Next Budget
The European Union is racing against a shrinking timeline to seal its next long‑term budget, a €1.8 trillion plan (about $1.95 trillion) that will shape spending through 2030. EU leaders convene in Cyprus amid fierce debates over new EU taxes, debt repayments...
Q2 2026 Fixed Income Perspectives
The Q2 2026 Fixed Income Perspectives note a shift from early‑year optimism—driven by resilient growth and easing inflation—to a landscape dominated by geopolitical volatility, especially the Iran conflict, and rising energy prices. These forces are pushing rates higher, widening credit spreads,...
India Seen to Line up Three Buffers for Its Economy Amid the Iran Storm: Fitch Unit
Fitch’s BMI unit says New Delhi will roll out three policy buffers to shield the Indian economy from fallout of the US‑Iran conflict. The first focuses on securing energy and critical inputs, invoking the Essential Commodities Act and curbing exports of...