Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to choke oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude futures to their highest level in over a year. Higher energy prices could lift inflation and undermine the modest growth expected for the U.S. economy and global container‑shipping demand in 2026. While unemployment remains low and inflation is tapering, Yellen highlighted underlying fragility, including a K‑shaped recovery where consumer spending is concentrated among top earners. The Federal Reserve is likely to hold off further rate cuts as oil‑price pressures mount.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
The United States and Israel launched a massive air campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sinking warships and striking more than 1,000 targets. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the operation as a focused effort to destroy Iran’s...
The cost of leaching copper oxide ore in the Central African Copperbelt is about to get even more expensive. In the past few days a number of Middle Eastern Oil refineries have been attacked / closed. In addition, exports through...
The U.S.–Israel air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 have heightened geopolitical risk, creating a fluid credit environment that could swing from rapid de‑escalation to a protracted regional war. DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign Debt team entered the episode with a defensive posture,...
In this live episode, Glenn Lawry talks with distinguished economist Lawrence Kotlikoff about the public role of economists, the need for them to move from descriptive to prescriptive work, and how economic tools can help both households and policymakers. Kotlikoff...
British manufacturers have sharply reduced their focus on the United States in 2025 due to President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff regime, according to the UK Trade Barometer survey of 2,000 firms. Export activity migrated to Asia and Europe, with China,...
Uzbekistan has accelerated economic integration with Afghanistan, with 2025 bilateral trade reaching $1.5‑$1.68 billion—a 53% jump from the prior year and 2.5‑fold growth since 2021. Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev aims to lift trade to $5 billion, backed by a forthcoming Kabul...
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky warns that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, especially the Hungarian forint and Turkish lira, will feel downward pressure as an Iran‑related energy shock pushes oil and gas prices higher and strengthens the US dollar. The...
Philippine stocks tumbled on Monday as the PSEi slipped 2.79% to 6,426.83 points, driven by heightened US‑Iran tensions and fears of rising oil prices. The sell‑off was broad‑based, with the services sector falling 4.11% and foreign investors exiting with net...
A sudden conflict with Iran has forced the closure of Persian Gulf air traffic, curtailing more than 90% of flights for Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad. The three Gulf carriers—often called the ME3—operate the world’s busiest transit hub, moving 182 million...
Poland’s central bank is poised to cut rates by 25 basis points in March, aligning with its recent dovish communication and a cooling inflation outlook. However, recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran have raised oil prices, introducing upside risks to headline...
The U.S.-Israeli strike on Iranian targets and Tehran's retaliatory actions have caused a sudden shutdown of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Oman, especially the Strait of Hormuz. Ship groundings and heightened naval alerts have crippled oil tanker movements and...
Honda Motor Co. will begin exporting two U.S.-built models—the Acura Integra Type S and the Honda Passport TrailSport Elite—to Japan in the second half of the year. The move follows a new U.S.-Japan trade accord that streamlines safety inspections and reduces...
BC Partners' Europe chairman Nikos Stathopoulos says tariffs are the top risk for private equity. He adds that despite regulatory complexities, Europe currently serves as a safe‑haven for investors. The firm highlights that tariff volatility threatens deal pricing and exit...
Oil prices surged after US‑Israeli air strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, pushing Brent crude above $80 a barrel. The conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil, adding a risk...
Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the 2026 Spring Statement, largely a fiscal update with no new policy announcements. The OBR’s latest outlook shows welfare spending climbing to £407 billion by 2031 and fiscal headroom expanding to £23.6 billion by 2029/30. Unemployment is projected...
Obviously the market doesn't really care about the strikes in Iran. The stock indices are barely down, silver is selling off big and crude oil is spiking, but nothing significant, it's nowhere near last June's high from the previous strike...
Mediterranean Shipping Company announced a downgrade of its India‑Europe and Mediterranean services, cutting vessel capacity on the Himalaya Express (HEX) from roughly 14,000 TEU to about 9,000 TEU. The IPAK service, run with the Shipping Corporation of India, will also...
Central Asian governments, long silent during Iran's December protests, issued cautious statements after the United States and Israel launched a surprise strike on Iran. Their foreign ministries emphasized restraint, the UN Charter, and humanitarian concerns while deliberately omitting any attribution...
In this IMF podcast, Directors Rodrigo Valdés and Deputy Era Dabla‑Norris discuss the surge in global debt, now approaching 100% of GDP, and the challenges of translating fiscal policy into politically viable actions. They explain how pandemic‑driven spending, prolonged low...
The Canada‑China trade deal announced in January reduces the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1 % for an initial 49,000‑unit quota, expanding to 70,000 over five years. The move stems from Trump‑era pressure on Canada, prompting a diversification toward Beijing....
The Strait of Hormuz, a 21‑mile narrow waterway, was shut after a severe incident dubbed “Epic Fury.” The closure halted the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about one‑fifth of global consumption. Heightened tensions between Iran and...
The Pro Farmer podcast episode released on March 2, 2026 features market analyst Hillari Mason discussing how potential U.S. military strikes against Iran could reverberate through agricultural markets. The conversation highlights risks to fertilizer imports, shipping routes, and energy costs...
The GSMA’s 2026 Mobile Economy report forecasts that 57% of global mobile connections will operate on 5G by 2030, marking a decisive shift from legacy networks. The Gulf Cooperation Council states are projected to lead with 95% penetration, followed by...
India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to $13.2 billion in Q3FY26, equivalent to 1.3% of GDP, up from $11.3 billion and 1.1% a year earlier. The increase was driven primarily by a larger merchandise trade deficit of $93.6 billion and higher net outflows...
War & Mortgage Rates: We're All Along For The Ride Since I am old & have been around for many Geopolitical Events I have learned 2 things: - No one knows exactly how things will turn out - The initial reaction of Financial...
The U.S. military operation against Iran is pulling Washington’s attention away from its newly‑declared Western Hemisphere priority, threatening to sideline a March 7 summit of Trump‑friendly Latin leaders. Latin American governments are divided: Brazil and Colombia condemn the strikes, Argentina...
Institutional foreign‑exchange trading volumes slipped about 5% month‑over‑month in February 2026 after a record‑breaking January. All major platforms—FXSpotStream, Cboe FX, Euronext FX and Deutsche Börse’s 360T—reported declines ranging from 1.7% to 10.9%. Cboe FX’s average daily volume fell to $59.67 billion, while Euronext FX posted the...
Nutrius CEO Charles Wachsberg told investors that ongoing tariff and trade uncertainty has not affected the company’s operations because all products are fully compliant with the Canada‑United States‑Mexico Agreement. He emphasized that Nutrius’s North‑American supply chain places its goods outside...
For the last 250 years, English has been the language of global trade. Flexport Translations changes that, allowing importers and exporters to communicate in their own language with live translations (powered by @grok) so they can understand each other. We've...
Attacks in Iran and retaliatory strikes across the Middle East sparked a classic risk‑off rally, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and dragging most Asian equity markets lower, with the notable exception of commodity‑heavy Australia. Hong Kong’s benchmark indices fell sharply, while...
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
Friday, the Trump administration began stalling IEEPA tariff refunds in court. In a new @CatoInstitute blog post, we review US regs on customs duty refunds & find that IEEPA delays will cost taxpayers ~$700M/month (~$23M/day) in additional interest payments owed...
Strait of Hormuz Enters Active Crisis: Five Ships Hit, Traffic Collapses, Tanker Markets Brace for Historic Shock https://t.co/QozOvFyHte
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn and soybean export inspections topped all estimates. 65% of the inspected bean volume was to China. https://t.co/pdWgCErVIi
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
Just last week the German government gutted the heating law which was supposed to drive a transition away from gas. The timing could not have been worse: Gas prices are up 50% today & this crisis could worsen significantly. This will...
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
#oil & #fertilizer prices both spike following the US-Israel joint strike on Iran with the Strait of Hormuz essentially shut down. #oatt #oott https://t.co/wrY5JcnYwb
Americans Are Leaving the US in Record Numbers Is America becoming a land of emigrants? @JoeWSJ & @drewhinshaw WSJ story looks into this new era. Cameo by Toronto's East End & the unique Riverdale Park view of the city I get to...
Good to see on a day where there are worries about high oil prices and inflation, other key inputs like housing and food may be cooling
Trump. Uncertainty. Disruption. No equilibrium. What would that mean to trade, supply chains, and logistics?
Russian rail freight. Drops. Sign of economy. Exports. Russian Railway. Large employer. What comes next? For economy. For Ukraine war.
Traders trim BOE bets, see less than 50% chance of a cut in March https://t.co/qbysIjoLyJ via @highisland https://t.co/TOAzMgmV6e
CPI and PPI translations into PCE suggest core prices in January rose around 0.43%, give or take. That would be the highest month-over-month reading since February (which was +0.448%) and annualizes to 5.3%. It corresponds to a 3.1% y/y rate, the highest...
Italy’s deficit breached the EU’s 3% ceiling in 2025 after all https://t.co/khPIWxEtbb via @donatopmancini https://t.co/QURIoNIGBe
The Fed has been quiet but THIS ECB comment shows you how central bankers are thinking about the rise in oil/gas prices Minutes after European natural gas surged 50%, an ECB Governor said they’re ready to “move quickly” on rates. Energy spike...
Suez Canal transits. By vessel types. Will the next one show the impact of the US-Iran war?
