Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Analysts at S&P Global warn that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran could cause the largest oil‑supply disruption ever if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses. Recent data show only five tankers transited on March 1 versus the usual 60, threatening up to 15 million barrels per day of crude and products. S&P and Fitch’s BMI models outline low, mid and high‑case scenarios, projecting Brent prices from $75 to over $130 per barrel. The reports stress that the war’s duration will determine whether the market shifts from a surplus to a historic deficit.
EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...
China’s foreign ministry called on the United States and Israel to immediately halt military actions against Iran and to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized that energy security underpins the global economy and condemned...
Eurozone February inflation rose modestly, with headline rates climbing from 1.7 % to 1.9 % and core inflation edging up to 2.4 %. The increase occurred despite a smaller energy contribution, signalling persistent price pressures in services and goods. The ongoing Middle East...
China has reclaimed its position as Asia’s busiest buyout market, according to Deloitte’s latest private‑equity report. A surge in domestic and regional fund activity offset a decline in Western capital, driving a 28% increase in deal volume year‑over‑year. The market...
Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe outlined the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s policy roadmap for 2026, building on the macro‑economic stability achieved in 2025. He highlighted that despite global trade uncertainties, market volatility and geopolitical tensions, inflation fell below 5 % and...
At Posidonia 2026, CORE POWER will host a high‑level executive briefing on civil maritime nuclear propulsion, signaling a shift from theoretical debate to concrete industry engagement. Leaders from shipping, finance, ports and energy will discuss fourth‑generation molten‑salt reactors that could...
In 2025 Norges Bank cut its policy rate twice, first to 4.25% in June and then to 4% in September, surprising markets despite the bank’s stated commitment to transparent communication. Governor Pål Longva highlighted ongoing efforts to convey forecast uncertainty,...
Italy's February preliminary HICP rose 1.6% year‑on‑year, beating the 1.1% consensus. Core inflation accelerated to 2.4% from 1.7% in January, with services inflation jumping to 3.6%. The hotter reading aligns with broader Eurozone CPI data, intensifying price‑pressure concerns. Analysts suggest...
India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies has opened a counter‑vailing duty investigation into imports of Chinese PVC resins after domestic producers filed complaints. The petitioners, including Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls, DCM Shriram and DCW Ltd, claim Chinese manufacturers receive government subsidies that enable...
The episode analyzes how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is triggering a fresh energy crisis, especially in Europe, where gas spot prices have surged 70% and oil is trading above $80 per barrel. Hosts discuss market reactions: a brief rally in...
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
The United States and Israel have launched a military strike on Iran, prompting analysts to model two outcomes: a swift conflict that keeps oil prices near a baseline of $80 per barrel, and a drawn‑out war that could push prices...
Independent music retailers are grappling with a new 15% tariff imposed for 150 days after the Supreme Court struck earlier duties, while consumer confidence stays weak and industry consolidation accelerates. Vendors have raised prices and tightened MAP policies, squeezing margins...
Vietnamese exporters are confronting higher logistics, insurance and raw‑material costs as Middle‑East tensions disrupt Red Sea shipping lanes. Companies such as Dony Garment and Cat Van Loi report potential 15‑20‑day delays that could jeopardise peak‑season deliveries and project timelines. Panic‑buying...
France has low exposure to Middle East shock, low inflation and resilient growth. ECB should not react to energy swings. Risk: energy volatility. Trade: overweight French banks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
In a February 2026 speech to Italy’s Parliamentary Committee, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone outlined the digital euro initiative, stressing its role in modernising payments and reinforcing trust through democratic legitimacy. He framed the project as a strategic response...
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy warned that forecasting a rate move too quickly would be a mistake, emphasizing that policy decisions will not hinge solely on volatile energy prices. He noted that France’s exposure to Middle‑East tensions remains limited,...
🚨 IRAN WAR DAY 4 — A DIFFERENT SHOCK 🚨 Day 4 changes the calculus. This isn't just an oil story anymore. QatarEnergy — the world's largest LNG supplier, covering 20% of global supply — halted all production after Iranian drones...
Here is a picture of @TheMichaelEvery being interview by a large Dutch man in Cape Town and in the process being hit by the epiphany that the geopolitical irony of the Iran situation is that China might be put in...
After the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration barred eleven ICC judges and prosecutors from using U.S.-based payment cards, email services and e‑commerce platforms. The sanctions effectively cut off access...
The United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran after the February 27 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and target regional airports. Iran’s resilient regime is now focused on defending its...
U.S. President Donald Trump told The Sun that the U.S.-U.K. partnership has deteriorated after Prime Minister Keir Starmer delayed permitting American forces to use British bases for defensive strikes against Iran. Trump contrasted Britain’s stance with France’s support, calling the...
Senior leaders from travel, finance, technology and government have launched the Global Resilience Network (GRN), a cross‑sector coordination platform active across Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas. GRN moves beyond traditional forums by providing an invitation‑only infrastructure that...
Japan’s unemployment rate ticked up to 2.7% in January, ending a five‑month decline. The labor ministry reported a 0.4% dip in total employment and a 3.2% rise in the unemployed, driven largely by a 7.9% jump in voluntary quits. Job...
French Foreign Minister Jean‑Noël Barrot and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held a call to coordinate de‑escalation of the escalating Iran conflict. Both ministers pledged to pursue a political solution that safeguards collective security while acknowledging Iranian aspirations. Barrot accused Tehran...
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, faces a supply crunch as regional geopolitical tensions and export‑capacity constraints tighten the market. The disruption has injected a hefty risk premium into spot and forward LNG prices, pushing contracts up 15‑20% year‑over‑year. Buyers...
Back in the day, Goldman Sachs was the premier Wall Street bad guy. The investment bank attracted endless scrutiny of the supposedly conflicting and asymmetric arrangements that powered its broker dealer operations. Key among these were its primary dealer arrangements....
The Bank of Japan is likely to postpone its March interest‑rate hike as market volatility from the US‑Iran conflict intensifies. Yen depreciation remains the only clear trigger for a hike, but geopolitical risk and rising oil prices are prompting caution....
Union Maritime, a UK‑based tanker operator, is linked to its first Newcastlemax bulk carrier order, potentially securing up to four 215,000‑dwt vessels from China’s Wuhu Shipyard. The deal includes two firm ships and two options at roughly $76 million each, with...
BMI warns that the Israel‑Iran conflict will increase policy uncertainty and deter foreign investment in India. The firm keeps its FY2026/27 GDP growth forecast at 7 % but flags geopolitical risks that could offset gains from new US and EU trade...
The blog argues that the U.S. strike on Iran is driven as much by oil and the desire to protect the petrodollar as by promoting freedom. It highlights how BRICS nations have been building alternative oil‑trade mechanisms using non‑dollar currencies...
Performance Shipping, the Nasdaq‑listed Greek tanker owner, has signed contracts for two 158,000 dwt suezmax vessels with Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding. Each newbuild costs $81.5 million and is scheduled for delivery in October 2028 and May 2029. The ships will be Tier III, scrubber‑fitted and meet...
Taiwan, home to 23 million people, sits at the nexus of global trade routes and the semiconductor supply chain, making its stability a linchpin for worldwide commerce. The Kuomintang (KMT) argues that the island should not be forced to align exclusively...
From The Wall Street Journal: “Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers.” (Recall that Dispersion — both within and across sectors and economies — is one of the three key themes I’ve...
DC won’t let high oil prices hurt Americans Good luck As @rory_johnston frames it, here are the options • SPR release (here we go again) • Sanctions relief on Russia (err... not great) • Gas tax holiday (2022 redux) You can’t print barrels https://t.co/3KCAj8NtGr #Oil #EnergyMarkets...
VLCC charter rates surged to a record $424,000 per day after the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz was officially closed to traffic. Spot rates for Middle‑East‑to‑China voyages jumped well above $400,000, dwarfing the recent $100,000‑plus benchmarks....
Strait of Hormuz Traffic March 2, 2026 The past 24 hour ship passages through the Strait of #Hormuz after #Iran declared its closed.
Energy crunch risks the BOE missing its inflation target for another year https://t.co/FWCJnvjnZJ via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/zZtUBjDKCz
Escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran triggered risk-off sentiment, driving S&P 500 futures down over 1%. https://t.co/NbHGasOhbi
In hindsight, the entire financial establishment being upset at us alluding to the mere existence of a bear case probably was not the most bullish thing that’s happened this year and maybe had some signal value as to positioning.
Good morning, Mostly Deep Red Arrows around the World as Geopolitical tensions spread thru 9 Countries. $spx futures -120 Looks like we will be right around big important range area. $spy $675ish https://t.co/S9yXkXPEy9
Villeroy says the ECB won’t set rates based solely on energy prices https://t.co/G8My89Yxzs via @SamyAdghirni https://t.co/rTdDrkhLLF
What does the potentially emerging energy crisis mean for Europe? Yesterday I was in a media briefing with 75 journalists. Here is a snippet of what I told them. https://t.co/3dT441Yllq
Everyone that traded during 2022 just collectively remembered the relationship between JKM and Japanese/Korean Equities that we all forgot when natural gas prices were calm.
“Can China act as a buffer? China has been loading up on cheap, sanctioned oil, putting some of it away in storage. In a report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said China could slow down on its purchases if oil prices...
Qatar LNG offline — unprecedented. U.S. exporters win, importers lose, says @seb_kennedy Ukraine & Iran wars expose a core flaw in the “energy transition” narrative. All energy depends on supply chains — break them, you break energy. No supply chains, no energy. Plan B? #LNG...
Ras Tanura was attacked by Iran based on all reliable reporting @RyanRozbiani A Tasnim denial is just that, not independent confirmation. #Iran #RasTanura #OilSecurity #MiddleEast #FactCheck #Geopolitics @VandanaHari_SG
I'll be on with @MariaBartiromo tomorrow am- 7:10 EST on @FoxBusiness discussing the surge in cross-asset volatility given the Iran Strike & what it means for markets
The yuan's appreciation against the dollar over the last few months looks to have pulled China's real exchange rate back to its end 2024 levels (February is my estimate based on the CFETS index) 1/ https://t.co/KtxZcE3nT7
