Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
U.S. electricity demand is surging, driven by data centers and electrification, but transmission construction has stalled, dropping from 1,700 miles per year (2010‑14) to just 350 miles (2020‑23). The report identifies four key barriers—cumbersome permitting, aging infrastructure costs, siloed utility planning, and supply‑chain constraints—impeding grid expansion. It outlines actions such as coordinated regional planning, streamlined permitting, advanced transmission technologies, demand‑response programs, innovative financing, and diversified material supply chains. Implementing these measures could generate multiple‑times savings and alleviate the $20.8 billion congestion cost borne by consumers.
Since Turkey’s 2016 energy policy, the country has transformed from a pipeline‑dependent gas importer to a diversified market anchored by rapid LNG expansion. Regasification capacity rose fivefold to 150 million cubic metres per day, driven by a fleet of FSRUs that...
The Supreme Court recently struck down a set of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, obligating the White House to refund importers the duties collected. Instead of issuing prompt refunds, the administration has adopted a slow‑walk strategy, arguing fiscal constraints...
The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is choking maritime freight into the Arabian Gulf, threatening the region’s $570 billion oil and gas export flow. With the Gulf’s ports serving as the sole gateway, disruptions also jeopardize imports that account...
Strive strategist Joe Burnett predicts that AI‑driven productivity gains will generate a deflationary environment, prompting central banks to expand money supply and driving Bitcoin to $11 million per coin by the first quarter of 2036. The base case assumes Bitcoin will...
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) released its March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, updating its projections for the UK economy and public finances. It now forecasts real GDP growth of just 0.3% in 2026, accelerating to 1.2% in 2027, while...
On March 3, 2026, coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continued to degrade Iranian command, missile and naval infrastructure while collateral damage caused civilian casualties. Major marine reinsurers issued 72‑hour war‑risk cancellation notices for the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters, effective March 5,...
Efficacy of such a move @chigrl ? Aramco Explores Plan to Export Oil Via Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz The world’s biggest oil exporter has a 5M barrel-a-day pipeline that runs across the country which can transport oil from fields in the...
India’s growth is shifting from cyclical consumption to a structural, investment‑led model, driven by a surge in public capital expenditure that rose from roughly ₹4.4 lakh crore in FY 19 to over ₹11 lakh crore in FY 25. The government has paired this spending with tax stability, massive...
Rare earth elements are critical for clean‑energy technologies, but the geopolitical push to cut China’s dominance is driving extraction in fragile ecosystems such as the deep‑sea Pacific mud, Brazil’s Amazon, Greenland, Mongolia and Madagascar. Mining and processing produce massive toxic...
Mexico’s government hailed 2025 capital investment as reaching historic highs, but the underlying data tells a different story. Year‑over‑year growth was roughly 2%, a modest rise that barely nudges the long‑term trend upward. Critics argue the figures are underwhelming and...
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
Kazakhstan's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in February, down from 49.8 in January, indicating sector contraction. The decline reflects weaker domestic demand, higher tax pressure from a January VAT increase, and firms cutting staff, purchases, and inventories. Despite the downturn,...
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to announce a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil chokepoints. The move threatens to halt commercial traffic, immediately spiking crude prices and prompting insurers to...
The Federal Reserve sets its own operating budget and remits any surplus to the Treasury, but it lacks a residual claimant who would benefit from cost savings. Because officials do not capture saved dollars, there is little incentive to minimize...
The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered the largest oil price jump in four years as the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, sending crude markets into turmoil. Inflation concerns now dominate Treasury trading, pushing the 10‑year yield above 4% and raising mortgage‑rate...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Feb. 20 that the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs was unconstitutional. Within hours, the administration invoked a different legal tool to impose a 15% tariff, later...
🔴 "Black Tuesday" in Korea. (maybe a little hyperbolic) Samsung -9.9%. SK Hynix -11.5%. Worst single-day drops since Aug 2024. KOSPI -7.2% — largest single-day drop in 19 months. Program trading halted intraday. Foreign investors dumped 3 trillion won in the morning session...
Analysts at S&P Global warn that the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran could cause the largest oil‑supply disruption ever if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses. Recent data show only five tankers transited on March 1 versus the usual 60,...
EUROPE has depleted its gas inventories faster than average this winter in the expectation there would plenty of LNG to refill them over the coming summer. EU storage sites are on average just 30% full down from more than 82%...
Asia is weak, oil is ripping, we're in a fast market right now on The Morning Show https://t.co/jn2RN28AFk
China’s foreign ministry called on the United States and Israel to immediately halt military actions against Iran and to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized that energy security underpins the global economy and condemned...
📌 A reminder: Most of the gas Europe imports is used for heat - to warm our buildings and to provide process heat in industry. Only around 20% of gas is used to generate electricity. https://t.co/31yV3zzXKL
When you strip out the dollar inflation, we haven't seen a new high since December 2024 https://t.co/uYUJP2gXaZ
Eurozone February inflation rose modestly, with headline rates climbing from 1.7 % to 1.9 % and core inflation edging up to 2.4 %. The increase occurred despite a smaller energy contribution, signalling persistent price pressures in services and goods. The ongoing Middle East...
The Brent oil price is now up a stunning 14% from Friday and we're starting to see disorderly strengthening in the Dollar as the global risk-off builds. Even gold is down versus the Dollar at this point. This is a...
Ukraine is under pressure to let the EU inspect a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, as the pro-Kremlin countries accuse Kyiv of overstating the impact of a Russian attack. https://t.co/FChmxjyqus
China has reclaimed its position as Asia’s busiest buyout market, according to Deloitte’s latest private‑equity report. A surge in domestic and regional fund activity offset a decline in Western capital, driving a 28% increase in deal volume year‑over‑year. The market...
The Dollar is the Only Game in Town: If this is World War 3, the world wants dollars. The greenback has is broadly higher but hardly anything else is. Other safe haven, like gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries...
Middle East ports operational update: Tuesday March 3: No internationally recognised legal closure of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/iXWbXlmInn
Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe outlined the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s policy roadmap for 2026, building on the macro‑economic stability achieved in 2025. He highlighted that despite global trade uncertainties, market volatility and geopolitical tensions, inflation fell below 5 % and...
What level does crude have to trade below for SPX to go green on the day
Here is the latest 7-day rolling number from the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted? Yes. Closed? No. https://t.co/paTmzStHh6
At Posidonia 2026, CORE POWER will host a high‑level executive briefing on civil maritime nuclear propulsion, signaling a shift from theoretical debate to concrete industry engagement. Leaders from shipping, finance, ports and energy will discuss fourth‑generation molten‑salt reactors that could...
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
Japan selling to prepare to defend the Yen. Stage 1 of reverse carry trade thesis.
In 2025 Norges Bank cut its policy rate twice, first to 4.25% in June and then to 4% in September, surprising markets despite the bank’s stated commitment to transparent communication. Governor Pål Longva highlighted ongoing efforts to convey forecast uncertainty,...
Trump Gambles His Presidency in His War With Iran clear and incisive analysis here by @tylerpager https://t.co/1Xtyjsqd4S via @NYTimes
In Today’s ‘Kya Lagta Hai’ sent exclusively to our smallcase and PMS subscribers we discuss: The future course of action in the light of the situation in the Middle East and if the same is discounted in the stock price as...
Italy's February preliminary HICP rose 1.6% year‑on‑year, beating the 1.1% consensus. Core inflation accelerated to 2.4% from 1.7% in January, with services inflation jumping to 3.6%. The hotter reading aligns with broader Eurozone CPI data, intensifying price‑pressure concerns. Analysts suggest...
The $US role in the world economy has been questioned, but amid fears of WWIII, the dollar is in much demand. Not Swiss francs. Not gold. The dollar. See https://t.co/pDzT69A9b1 https://t.co/bIUvqkX4HO
🇪🇺 Don't think there's much to worry about in today's euro area inflation numbers. Core goods inflation is rising, but several temporary factors drove the upside surprise in services (Olympics effect?), barely offsetting the downside surprises from last months. https://t.co/UqbbT9rLY9
India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies has opened a counter‑vailing duty investigation into imports of Chinese PVC resins after domestic producers filed complaints. The petitioners, including Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls, DCM Shriram and DCW Ltd, claim Chinese manufacturers receive government subsidies that enable...
Energy crunch risks the BOE missing its inflation target for another year https://t.co/FWCJnvjnZJ via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/zZtUBjDKCz
Escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran triggered risk-off sentiment, driving S&P 500 futures down over 1%. https://t.co/NbHGasOhbi
The episode analyzes how the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict is triggering a fresh energy crisis, especially in Europe, where gas spot prices have surged 70% and oil is trading above $80 per barrel. Hosts discuss market reactions: a brief rally in...
In hindsight, the entire financial establishment being upset at us alluding to the mere existence of a bear case probably was not the most bullish thing that’s happened this year and maybe had some signal value as to positioning.
Good morning, Mostly Deep Red Arrows around the World as Geopolitical tensions spread thru 9 Countries. $spx futures -120 Looks like we will be right around big important range area. $spy $675ish https://t.co/S9yXkXPEy9
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
The United States and Israel have launched a military strike on Iran, prompting analysts to model two outcomes: a swift conflict that keeps oil prices near a baseline of $80 per barrel, and a drawn‑out war that could push prices...
