Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as price pressures ease. The services sector mirrors this divide, with the NBS reading at 49.5 versus RatingDog’s 56.7. Analysts warn that without targeted policy support, soft domestic demand could drag the broader economy longer.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East is destabilizing maritime supply chains, with vessel itineraries adjusting by the hour and many shipments facing uncertain destination outcomes. Xeneta’s analyst briefing highlights three immediate pressure points: containers already at sea, forced diversions and...
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI surged to 62.1 in February, up from 50.3 in January, while the Services PMI rose to 56.7, both beating market expectations. The strong readings signal a robust rebound in Chinese factory output and service activity. The...
According to @Polymarket, there is a 67% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. The probability has SOARED in the last few hours. 20% OF THE WORLD’S OIL, AND ~40% OF CHINA’S OIL, FLOWS THROUGH THE...
U.S government sets preliminary countervailing duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia and Laos #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/xLDIGb82s4
The Taiwan dollar fell to 31.782 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since May, after foreign investors sold NT$230.2 billion of Taiwanese stocks this week – the largest weekly outflow since at least 2000. The sell‑off was triggered by heightened geopolitical...
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSDAQ PLUNGES 8% Where did you think all those crypto flows ended up https://t.co/JzbQThyUAl
The US-Iran war has driven up oil prices, stoking inflation fears and lifting yields alongside the dollar. Will this break the gold market? #GOLD #GoldPrice #USIranConflict #Dollar #Stocks #Markets #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ciFOGnfO6T
Oil prices surged as Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting 70‑80% of traffic. Brent crude rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since July 2024, while U.S. energy stocks outperformed the broader market. Analysts, led...
According to a CNN poll, 62% of U.S. adults say that Trump should obtain congressional approval before any further military action in Iran. THE PUBLIC IS TURNING ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/4jYyZSLJ7C
Asian markets slipped further on March 4 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. Iran’s continued attacks and heightened Israeli‑U.S. pressure pushed energy prices higher, while airlines kept flights grounded. South Korea’s KOSPI index dropped again, marking a second consecutive...
Americans think a -2% day is crazy volatile, while the Nikkei is down 10% in the first three days of March https://t.co/997R5MoBjs
Canadian airlines are trimming U.S. leisure capacity and redirecting aircraft to Latin America and the Caribbean as geopolitical tensions and trade‑policy shifts dampen cross‑border demand. Air Canada signals that the decline may be bottoming out, while Porter Airlines adds new...
The Australian government’s National Housing Accord, launched on 1 July 2024, set a goal of delivering 1.2 million new dwellings within five years. ABS data show that after the first 15 months, about 81,000 homes—27 % of the target—remain unbuilt, creating a sizable shortfall. The...
Ukraine’s labor market has endured a massive shock since the February 2022 invasion, losing roughly a quarter of its pre‑war workforce due to displacement, mobilization and casualties. Despite a spike in unemployment above 20% in 2022, the rate fell to...
Rising crude prices, driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict, could push the Philippine peso past the 59 per‑dollar threshold. MUFG forecasts the PHP trading between 58.5 and 59.5 if oil steadies around $90 a barrel, while JP Morgan sees a modest global...
trump has backed away from regime change in iran. so what’s the strategy? if not tehran, then maybe the oil. @gzeromedia
China’s foreign ministry publicly condemned Israeli and U.S. military strikes against Iran, urging an immediate cease‑fire and emphasizing diplomatic solutions. Wang Yi’s call with Israel’s Gideon Sa’ar highlighted Beijing’s call for de‑escalation and protection of shipping lanes in the region....
Marine gasoil (MGO) prices in the Americas surged toward $1,000 per metric tonne, marking the highest levels since October 2023. The rally follows the US‑Israel weekend attacks on Iran, which threaten the flow of middle‑distillates through the Strait of Hormuz....
Iran escalated its campaign against regional energy assets, deploying armed drones against the United Arab Emirates' main oil export hub and striking major ports in Oman. The attacks, which originated beyond the Strait of Hormuz, signal a widening of Tehran's...
Brent crude rose to $85 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a notable surge amid heavy trading. The rally reflects market reaction to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over supply disruptions. Traders are now focusing on how constrained...
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new coalition to secure vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea amid the US‑Iran war. The initiative will mobilize military assets, including repositioning the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to...
The Middle East conflict entered its fourth day as the Trump administration launched a military strike against Iran. White House officials have offered a series of shifting rationales—ranging from regime change to preemptive action and nuclear disarmament—despite intelligence assessments indicating...
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen announced that artificial‑intelligence tools can trim roughly 10% off the back‑office component of ocean freight costs, enabling logistics firms to scale without proportionate hiring. He revealed that Flexport entered a "code red" mode in November 2025,...
US‑Iran hostilities have disrupted Middle‑East sea lanes, prompting carriers to suspend loadings, impose a $3,000 emergency surcharge and reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. The resulting capacity crunch is tightening polyethylene and polypropylene shipments to Brazil and the...
In February 2026 President Donald Trump and President Prabowo Subianto signed a U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that obliges Jakarta to facilitate $10 billion of U.S. investment and import roughly $33 billion of American goods, mainly energy and agriculture. The deal was...
Hellmann Worldwide Logistics CEO Jens Drewes told the TPM26 conference that global ocean freight volumes remain robust despite heightened geopolitical risks, including ongoing trade tensions and the expanding Middle East conflict. He highlighted continued strength in worldwide trade and pointed...
ExxonMobil said its worldwide scale and diversified portfolio allow it to mitigate disruptions from the latest Middle East conflict. Senior vice president Jack Williams highlighted the company’s ability to shift feedstock and products using its trading arm and long‑term charter fleet....
The Container News (CN) Index climbed to 543 this week, keeping global container shipping in the High Pressure zone. Freight rates across major East‑West lanes showed mixed movement, with softness on Asia‑USEC and Asia‑USWC but strength on Far East‑North Europe...
Retailers are turning to cross‑border e‑commerce as domestic markets saturate, with global online sales forecast to hit $6.8 trillion by 2028. A Total Retail whitepaper, created with Melissa Data, highlights that address errors affect nearly one‑fifth of orders, driving costly failures....
Tensions between China and Japan have escalated after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November statement linking Japan’s response to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Japan’s recent electoral win has enabled a surge in defense spending, while China signals willingness...
Freight rates for medium‑range tankers loading on the US Gulf coast surged as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped, prompting buyers to scramble for alternative diesel supplies. Chevron’s Europe‑bound voyage hit Worldscale 365 ($72.39 per tonne), while ATMI’s Caribbean...
Air cargo originating in Asia for the US and Europe will soon pile up at regional airports as the expanding Middle East conflict grounds a sizable share of available capacity. Kuehne + Nagel CEO Stefan Paul warned that backlogs will materialise by...
India has urged developed nations at the WTO ministerial to adopt concrete technology‑transfer measures that would help developing and least‑developed countries access advanced, environmentally‑sound inputs. The proposal highlights export controls on semiconductor chips and rare‑earth minerals, as well as rigid...
India and the United Kingdom are set to activate the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by early April, granting Indian exporters duty‑free access to 99% of the UK market. However, the ongoing West Asia conflict threatens to disrupt shipping...
Rachel Reeves’s spring statement reaffirmed a commitment to fiscal discipline, citing OBR projections that borrowing will fall and fiscal headroom has increased. The editorial warns that the UK’s exposure to soaring oil and gas prices from the Gulf conflict could...
The episode covers a sharp rise in oil prices amid Middle East tensions, its impact on global markets, and an upgraded Australian Q4 GDP forecast of 0.7% growth. ANZ economists discuss central banks' cautious stance on inflation, noting higher oil...
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
GS Europe: Europe has re-rated in recent years Sectors with high US exposure and a low beta to the market should be mostly immune to recent shocks https://t.co/g2Fd3kpcA5
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, as of March 1st, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 656.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 84.6%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 63.8%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 50.0%/yr https://t.co/FrHE7rOpRu
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 87.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Ur4qSrFxia
PCE is a better measure of all spending and takes account of consumer substitution in their spending. CPI’s advantage is speed: they can tabulate it quicker because you only need to check the prices of a pre-determined basket of...
Rooting for the immediate v shaped recovery in KOSPI/Nikkei but, in my experience, violent deleveraging events are seldom limited to a single session. Held off on any aggressive dip buying today.
My friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas has it right. ONE OF THE COSTS OF THE NETANYAHU-TRUMP WAR ON IRAN = A GAS PRICE SURGE. https://t.co/cnsDUpCpbY
All things considered, I would expect the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to be higher... Uncertainty index vs DXY on the weekly: https://t.co/sVGAiUIrV7
Ryanair's O'Leary sees surge in Easter bookings to Europe due to Middle East war https://t.co/TDpGBi7ecF
Why I’m so bullish on the era of the Radical Fed Chairman: Most technicians aren’t technologists. But Kevin Warsh is both. 👇 https://t.co/90GCOPkuDW
People keep asking, “Why not stablecoins”? The most obvious explanation is actually quite simple: stablecoins can be frozen, Bitcoin can’t
