Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Nigeria's Public Debt Hits N159.28 Trillion ($111 Bn), Sparking Sustainability Concerns
Nigeria's public debt climbed to N159.28 trillion ($110.97 bn) at the end of 2025, driven by domestic borrowing that now makes up 53.27% of the total. While the debt‑to‑GDP ratio is expected to fall to 32.3% in 2026, high servicing costs and a heavy reliance on external lenders keep fiscal reform high on the agenda.
Oil Crude Tops $100, Pulling Asian Markets Back From Record Peaks
Brent crude surged to $103 per barrel as Iran seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Nifty to retreat from fresh record highs. Analysts warned that the oil shock and...
BIMCO Warns Hormuz Reopening Hinges on Mine Clearance as Trump Orders Sweep Surge
The Baltic and International Maritime Council warned that a meaningful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will require weeks of dedicated mine‑clearing operations, noting that restricted corridors and dual U.S.–Iran enforcement actions still limit commercial traffic. President Donald Trump amplified...
UK Braces for Price Rises Driven by Iran War as Economic Confidence Plummets
UK consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since October 2023 as the Iran war fuels inflation expectations. Business surveys reveal rising cost pressures, with more than a quarter of firms planning price hikes, driven largely by higher energy costs....
How the Philippines Can Stay Out of Recession
The Philippines’ growth slowed to 4.4% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024, while headline inflation rose to 4.1% in March 2026. The IMF still projects 5.6% growth in 2026, but policymakers must protect purchasing power, speed up public investment, keep...
Standalone Regulatory Relief
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is considering a temporary reduction of the Minimum Liquidity Ratio (MLR) for the Chamber of Thrift Banks (CTB) from 20% to 16% to ease liquidity pressures on its 54 members and 1,200 branches. This...
Grocery Prices Will Keep Rising No Matter What Politicians Promise
Canadian grocery prices are climbing faster than in the United States, with families now spending roughly $1,200 more per year than before the pandemic. Inflation is driven by sharp increases in staples such as coffee (+30.8%) and beef (+16.8%). The...
Gulf War Fuels Raw Material Inflation, FMCG Firms Shift to Daily Pricing Strategy
The Gulf war has sparked a sharp rise in raw‑material costs for Indian FMCG firms, with inflation ranging from 20% to 60% across inputs such as light liquid paraffin and packaging. Companies like Havells, Bajaj Consumer Care and Parle are...
Golden Pass Ships First LNG Cargo, Launching Major New U.S. Export Supply
Golden Pass LNG, a QatarEnergy‑ExxonMobil joint venture, shipped its first export cargo from Sabine Pass, Texas, marking the transition from commissioning to commercial trade. The three‑train terminal aims to export about 18 million tonnes per annum, positioning it among North America’s...
U.S. Inflation Picture Is the Worst in Almost 4 Years
U.S. inflation has surged to its most severe level since 2022, according to a MarketWatch report. S&P Global’s service‑sector index rose to 51.3 in April, up from a three‑year low of 49.8, indicating modest expansion despite broader price pressures. Companies...
EU Loan Throws Ukraine a Lifeline, but More Help Needed for War
The European Union approved a €90 bn (~$97 bn) loan for Ukraine, with half of the funds to be disbursed this year and the balance in 2027. The financing is split between roughly €17 bn per year for health, education and other public...
Gulf States' Disunity Over Iran War Explained
the gulf states have been far from unified in their response to the iran war. here’s one big reason:
Stablecoins Could Transform Global Banking System
The one kind of crypto that might actually be useful There is one kind of crypto that I find interesting, and it has nothing to do with the shady world most associate with the term. I think stablecoins could help significantly...
Beijing’s Emphasis on Security Weighing on US Firms’ Optimism: AmCham China
American firms in China applaud regulatory refinements and greater openness, yet persistent national‑security priorities curb optimism. AmCham China's 2026 white paper highlights incremental progress on foreign investment rules and cross‑border data governance, but warns that broad, evolving security definitions complicate...
Nowcast IQ Nails US PMI, Flags Europe Slowdown
The best Nowcast data on Earth? Solid PMIs from the US were just released, showing that economic momentum is gaining pace despite the war, and this was spot on with our live growth data from Nowcast IQ. The same applies to...
Iran War Inflation Shrinks Wage Growth Gap
Inflation from the War in Iran is eating into wage growth. Last month, the gap between the two almost closed, a trend that will likely continue into April. My @morningjoe Chart
Hainan Was China’s Shopping Paradise. For Beijing That’s No Longer Enough.
Hainan, once celebrated as China’s premier duty‑free shopping destination, saw a sharp 29.3% drop in duty‑free spending in 2024. In response, Beijing announced a strategic pivot, turning the island into a testbed for broader tax incentives, tariff‑free access, and a...
Trump's Policies Turn Inflation From Crisis to Choice
Covid inflation was a global phenomenon. It went away when the covid supply shocks went away. Today, inflation is a policy choice. And all of Trump's policies so far have been--to one degree or another--inflationary War: inflationary Deficit: inflationary Tariffs:...
Mild Winter Averted Gas Price Spike Amid Hormuz Closure
Northern hemisphere’s mild winter averted worse gas crisis Global gas prices would have surged much higher as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz if last winter had not been among the warmest on record across the northern...
Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines
On April 23, 2026, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, its first hike since October 2023. The move reverses a 25‑bp cut made two months earlier, bringing the rate back above the...
War Boosts Oil and Big Tech, Sinks Airlines and Staples
The impact of the war has been uneven across the stock market. Sectors like oil exploration and big tech have surged while others, like airlines, consumer staples, and materials have been hit hard. My @morningjoe Chart
Five Reasons Global Markets Are Surprisingly Resilient Despite War in Iran
Two months into the Iran conflict, global equities are rallying toward record highs despite heightened geopolitical risk. Investors have largely discounted worst‑case scenarios, focusing on solid corporate fundamentals and abundant liquidity. A surge in artificial‑intelligence chip stocks and robust first‑quarter...
Prolonged Oil Price Spikes Extend Equity Market Correction
With crude oil prices driving equities right now, let’s take a look at two examples of oil shocks. The 1990 Gulf War took oil prices from $41 to $100 (in today’s dollars) was short-lived and caused only a brief 19% drawdown...
RBI Sees Growth, Inflation Risks From Escalating US-Iran War
The Reserve Bank of India warned in its April 2026 bulletin that the escalating US‑Iran war poses a major downside risk to the global and domestic economy. Prolonged conflict could raise energy and input costs, disrupt trade flows and trigger...
Private Credit Strain May Tighten Liquidity, but 2008 Repeat Unlikely
Due to faulty marketing targeting inexperienced retail investors, private credit problems are making headlines. With the headlines, broader financial system confidence and sentiment are in play. If private credit concerns spread, liquidity in the traditional and shadow banking...
UK Business Confidence Plummets to 45-Year Low
UK quarterly business confidence from the CBI crashed in its update this morning (-27 to -38). Worst balance of confidence - outside of the pandemic - in 45 years... https://t.co/SpvRFSzNHK
Billionaire Bernard Arnault Warns Of ‘World Catastrophe’ If Iran War Is Unresolved
Billionaire LVMH chief Bernard Arnault warned that an unresolved Iran war could spark a "world catastrophe" with severe economic fallout. LVMH reported the conflict shaved 1% off organic growth and saw demand plunge up to 70% since February. The luxury giant’s...
Fed's Balance Sheet Fix: Impact Is Modest
The impact of completely correcting the UST duration holdings of the Fed 101🧵 Despite the warnings and hyperventilation of the usual suspects, correcting the Fed's balance sheet is just not that big a deal. Today the balance sheet has a...
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
Why Israel’s Economy Is Thriving Now
Israel’s shekel has surged to below three per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since the mid‑1990s, reflecting heightened investor confidence amid regional conflict. The country’s defense and high‑tech sectors have attracted capital inflows after recent operations showcased Israeli weaponry....
Global PMIs Surpass Forecasts; Eurozone Contracts
The Composite PMIs - timely proxies for GDP for the major economies - largely beat expectations for April's update. The exception was the Eurozone and major member components, which missed forecasts significantly and slipped into contraction: https://t.co/g0G7ZJWDN1
Future Iran Deal Mirrors JCPOA: Limits for Relief
“… Any future nuclear deal with the current Iranian regime will rest on a familiar foundation: constraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for meaningful economic relief…”
West Asia Conflict, Supply Chain Disruptions May Create Challenges to Economy: RBI Bulletin
The Reserve Bank of India’s April bulletin warns that the ongoing West Asia conflict and related supply‑chain disruptions could pressure India’s economy through higher energy costs, rising input prices, and trade‑flow disturbances. While domestic activity remains broadly resilient, the bulletin...
China’s New Supply‑Chain Rules Pose Risk to US Companies
AFP: China’s new supply chain regulations could be a “concern” for US firms, @AmCham_China warned. The regulations, released April 7, allow authorities to take measures against foreign companies that “harm China’s industrial and supply chain security.” https://t.co/bmnFKekxT7
Russia's War Debt Burden Threatens Banking System
Russia has a financial crisis looming The Kremlin shifted war costs from the sovereign balance sheet into the banking system. Now those loans are going bad. That bill is coming due. https://t.co/PzEExkohJo
Oil Prices Climb Above $103 as US‑Iran Tensions Keep Strait of Hormuz Closed
Brent crude rose 1.7% to $103.60 a barrel and U.S. WTI jumped 1.8% to $94.60 as the strategic Strait of Hormuz stayed closed amid stalled U.S.–Iran talks. The rally, reinforced by a drop in U.S. fuel inventories, raises concerns for...
Rethinking Inflation: Ratios, Income Gaps, Price Levels
Enjoyed @mtkonczal latest piece. Exciting to see people seriously considering differing rates of inflation, ratios vs differences in income & wealth, and price levels. https://t.co/4nbD049Wvh
Dropping US‑Iran Talk Deadlines From My Calendar
I am going to stop putting in proposed deadlines for the US-Iran talks into my macro calendar. Changing it intraday at this point...
ASX 200 Slides ~0.6% as Middle East Tensions and Profit Warnings Hit Traders
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped roughly 0.6% to 8,777.80 on Thursday, pressured by renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions and profit warnings that rattled Australia’s big four banks. The move underscores how geopolitical risk and earnings uncertainty are shaping short‑term trading opportunities...
UK Consumer Confidence Hits Two‑year Low
JUST IN: UK consumer confidence has dropped to the lowest level in more than 2 years
Median Voter Demands Lower Inflation Than Fed Tolerates
I have come to believe the median voter has a different loss function than the Fed. The median voter wants inflation at 2% or lower and would tolerate higher unemployment as a tradeoff. The Fed’s revealed preference is at...
Middle East Blockades Ripple Through Global Supply Chains, Boosting Green Hydrogen Interest
Iran's seizure of two commercial vessels and the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply chains, pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel and inflating shipping costs. The energy shock is narrowing the cost gap...
Low Crude Prices Persist Amid Historic Supply Shock
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history https://t.co/1E2OX8hn8t
How Global Imbalances Ripple Across Nations
Adam Tooze has a very good new Substack article on global imbalances. I discuss below where I (mostly) agree and disagree (more in emphasis than in substance), focusing especially on how imbalances are transmitted from country to country. @adam_tooze https://t.co/n6KhuJ5NMS
Japan's Factory PMI Hits 12‑Year High, Front‑Loading Production Over Middle‑East Tensions
Japan's manufacturers pushed factory output to a 12‑year peak, with the S&P Global PMI climbing to 55.4 in April. The surge reflects a strategic front‑loading of production as firms brace for supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Middle‑East conflict.
Hormuz Turns Trade Weaponization Frontline, Threatening Maritime Security
Hormuz becomes frontline in ‘weaponisation of trade’. Is there currently maritime security and safety? https://t.co/NoAhibd8ud
Mexico Core Inflation Falls to 4.27%
Not sure what to do with this one, but Mexico core inflation down to 4.27%.......
LCH Predicts Yuan Will Overtake Yen as Second‑most Traded Currency in Global FX Options
LCH’s ForexClear unit says the offshore yuan is on track to displace the Japanese yen as the second‑largest currency in worldwide FX options trading, trailing only the euro‑dollar pair. The projection, slated for the Bank for International Settlements’ 2028 triennial...
Global PMIs Diverge as Iran War Shock Spreads: Europe Contracts, UK Front-Loads, Australia Trapped, Japan Absorbs Costs
Global PMI data for April reveal that the Iran‑driven oil shock is creating fragmented stagflation across major economies. The Eurozone’s flash composite PMI slipped into contraction, driven by a historic services downturn, while the UK saw a manufacturing surge fueled...
Middle East Conflict Triggers Aluminium Supply Concerns
The global aluminium market is confronting a sudden supply shock as the Middle‑East conflict disrupts both primary aluminium and alumina shipments. The region accounts for roughly seven million tonnes, about 9% of worldwide output, and the disruption could create a...