Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
The UK games trade body TIGA is urging the government to boost the Video Games Expenditure Credit (VGEC) in the upcoming Autumn Budget, proposing a 53% credit rate for projects with budgets up to £23.5 million. It also recommends expanding qualifying expenditure coverage from 80% to 100% and increasing funding through the UK Games Fund. TIGA estimates these reforms could generate £731.7 million in gross value added and sustain more than 10,500 jobs. The call follows the March Spring Statement outlining modest economic growth forecasts.
Many consider a widespread war in the Middle East the worst-case scenario for the global oil and gas markets. That war is here, and it could have long-lasting impacts on energy and climate policy. This week on Zero, I speak...
The timing of our China Macro Watch report on February 25 has proven fortuitous. In that note, we laid out why Beijing is unlikely to lift its 45mn-ton aluminum output cap — a policy that has effectively anchored global supply...
Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund is experiencing a wave of redemptions, marking one of the sharpest outflows in the private‑credit space this year. The fund’s investors have withdrawn roughly 5% of assets within a few weeks, prompting concerns over liquidity...
A Safer World Could Pressure Stretched Gold - Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a signal to buy gold, and subduing Iran could mark the opposite. Since the "unlimited friendship" between presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in 2022, leadership in...
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that a U.S. submarine fired a torpedo that sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan authorities recovered several bodies, reported at least 80 deaths and rescued 32...
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as the US‑Iran conflict sparked safe‑haven buying of the dollar and pushed oil prices higher. Higher oil costs and the realization that U.S. rate cuts may be delayed have lifted inflation...
The February 2026 edition of Russian Oil & Gas Monthly highlights a sudden escalation in Middle‑East tensions, specifically the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. The conflict, which unfolded at the end of February, disrupted global...
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects $12.5 trillion of travel‑and‑tourism investment across G20 economies through 2035, outpacing demand growth of 3.3% per year with a 4.6% annual investment rise. The report, released at ITB Berlin with Oxford Economics, warns...
Macro: BTC -50% from ATH; driven by deleveraging and capitulation. Catalysts: Fed cuts, ETF adoption, tokenization. Risk: liquidity squeeze. Trade: accumulate BTC dips $60–65k. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Trump administration is reviewing Tencent’s gaming investments for potential national‑security risks. Senior officials are assessing the Chinese conglomerate’s stakes in Riot Games, Epic Games, Supercell and other Western studios. The review comes amid heightened U.S.–China tensions and just before...
Under the Bretton Woods gold standard, oil was effectively pegged at about $2.60 per barrel, delivering remarkable price stability from 1950 until the system’s collapse. When the United States abandoned the gold‑linked dollar in the early 1970s, oil prices became...
Vietnam is projected to outpace all economies in GDP growth over the next decade, according to Harvard’s Growth Lab and S&P Global research. Manufacturing activity accelerated in February, with the PMI rising to 54.3, marking eight months of expansion and...
The article warns that the AI‑driven bull market, which has lifted the S&P 500 88.5% since early 2023, could end if AI data‑center spending wanes. It highlights more than $600 billion in cloud‑infrastructure capex this year and the resulting boost to GDP...
The UK’s official international reserves rose in February 2026, reaching approximately £115 billion, driven primarily by gains in foreign‑currency assets. Gold holdings remained steady at around £10 billion, while IMF‑related assets showed a marginal increase. The reserve portfolio’s composition shifted slightly toward US‑dollar‑denominated...
China has launched a high‑profile diplomatic campaign to halt the escalating Iran‑U.S./Israel war, calling for an immediate cease‑fire and a return to negotiations. Beijing emphasizes its flexible, interest‑based partnerships with Tehran rather than a binding alliance, underscoring that the Middle...
European sovereign bonds slipped for a third consecutive session as surging oil and natural‑gas prices revived inflation concerns. The rally in energy commodities coincided with a U.S. initiative to secure a key Middle‑East shipping lane, which failed to calm markets....
Fitch Ratings lowered Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing rising policy uncertainty. The agency kept the long‑term foreign‑currency issuer default rating at BBB, an investment‑grade level. This follows Moody's February decision to downgrade the outlook amid concerns over governance under...
The Congressional Budget Office released a stark outlook showing U.S. deficits expanding by nearly $1.5 trillion and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio surpassing 115 percent. President Donald Trump is proposing a fresh stimulus package—accelerated infrastructure grants, tax rebates, and expanded credit for small firms—designed...
@sandy_carter `s POV `Iran War, An Oil Crisis, A Crypto Stress Test, And An AI Reckoning` Oil. Crypto. AI. Most coverage is missing the "Big 3" takeaways: 1️⃣ Crypto’s Dual Identity: It’s a "risk asset" for Western traders but a "survival tool"...
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
The US‑Israel‑Iran war has triggered an immediate surge in derivatives trading, especially ultra‑short‑dated options. Zero‑days‑to‑expiration (0DTE) contracts now dominate SPX volume, accounting for two‑thirds of activity. Traders are buying protective puts to hedge against further escalation, while crypto options have...
Allianz’s latest Risk Barometer indicates that 51% of more than 3,000 executives view a geopolitically‑driven global supply‑chain paralysis as the most likely Black Swan event within five years, with a global internet outage close behind. The survey highlights rising concern...
Iran has launched strikes against U.S. bases in the Gulf States, citing their role in the U.S.-Israel campaign, yet it has refrained from hitting the two American installations in Turkey. Tehran views the Gulf nations as militarily weak and economically...
Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) is heading down despite rising geopolitical escalations ? In short, this is a liquidity event. For detailed context , with potential trade idea on GOLD & SPX , watch the video below (8 minutes video...
UAE equities fell sharply when markets reopened after a two‑day shutdown caused by the US‑Israeli attacks on Iran. The Dubai Financial Market General Index slid up to 4.9%, led by drops in Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties. Abu Dhabi’s FTSE...
In Asia, Thailand and South Korea have the highest GDP exposure to imported oil & so the violence today in Korea and Thai markets reflects fear how that will play out. Note that this is negative for Asia in general but...
Travel sellers at ITB Berlin 2026 warned that the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran war is pushing tourists toward regions perceived as safe. They highlighted Asia‑Pacific’s stability, low crime rates and effective crisis management as key selling points. Singapore, Taiwan, Japan and Bhutan...
Geopolitical tensions in 2026 have re‑emerged as a primary driver of global capital flows, prompting investors to seek defensive positions. Tens of billions of dollars have moved into money‑market funds, while traditional safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, and...
The emerging conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran threatens the flow of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. Higher energy costs are expected to translate into...
London‑based Zodiac Maritime is expanding its crude carrier renewal by ordering five new tankers in Asia. The deal includes four 319,000‑dwt VLCCs from Jiangsu New Hantong Ship Heavy Industry at roughly $120 million each, slated for 2029 delivery, and a 157,000‑dwt...
Eastern DR Congo’s eastern provinces sit atop lithium, gold, coltan and other critical minerals that power the global energy transition and digital economy. Rising demand has drawn a slate of international actors, from the United States to China, intensifying geopolitical...
Indian equities deepened their decline on Tuesday as fragile sentiment and weaker-than-expected third‑quarter earnings weighed on the market. CIO Srinivas Rao Ravuri highlighted that forward earnings multiples sit around 19‑times, which he finds comfortable but not compelling. He favoured domestic‑driven...
In this episode, Michelle Martin and market analyst Ryan Huang dissect a volatile global backdrop, covering Asian equity declines, the earnings surge and share‑price drop of Singapore‑based Sea Ltd (Shopee), Singapore’s push to become a regional physical gold hub, and...
Gujarat Gas announced a 50% cut in gas supplies to industrial customers after the US‑Iran conflict disrupted regasified LNG imports, sending its shares down 4% to Rs 382 on the BSE. The company, which sources roughly 70% of its gas from...
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8% *KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high...
Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended: The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the...
The United States Postal Service announced a temporary suspension of acceptance for items bound for 18 countries, citing logistics impacts from the Middle East conflict. The list includes Algeria, Iran, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, among others. In parallel,...
Fertilizer manufacturers in South Asia are beginning to cut output due to an outage at Qatar’s LNG export plant ⚠️ 🇮🇳 Some Indian manufacturers started reducing production at urea plans 🇵🇰 Pakistan’s gas distributor declared FM on to fertiliser plants https://t.co/LUjKJcUg25
Nervous consolidation is the main feature in the capital markets after Asia Pacific equities extended their slide. $USD is mostly softer but in yesterday's ranges. Japan's MOF threatened intervention. See https://t.co/24YmyiETAN https://t.co/XmEx257iS8
Trump’s Hormuz strategy may raise energy costs as India faces fertilizer and LNG supply risks | Mathrubhumi English https://t.co/BTL63LOcou
Switzerland’s inflation rate at 0.03%/yr is at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0-2%. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) is within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr at 5.3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/wDVH5hwQyz
Europe remains one of the economies most exposed to volatility in global energy markets. The EU still depends on imported fossil fuels for close to 60% of its energy needs. Among large economies, only Japan and South Korea have higher levels of...
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.
China PMIs Send Mixed Signals as Markets Watch for Stimulus—Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, edged up to 49.5 in February https://t.co/7qblrUNU7k https://t.co/7qblrUNU7k
The US just killed Iran's top leaders, but the war isn't ending. The Revolutionary Guard is still fighting, and oil has spiked past $85. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/oiXuHGPp3W
Usdinr crossed 92, a very quick move from the 90s. This plus crude will hit inflation in 6.months if it isn't controlled
CHINA’s options to deal with loss of oil supply from Iran and the Middle East: https://t.co/pf8gYZWvxE
KR REGULATORS READY W10TN STOCK MKT STABILIZATION FUND DEPLOYMENT I mean they do still know the market is still up 25% this year right?
