Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Australians Conned on the Level of Public Debt
Australia’s federal budget reports two distinct deficit metrics that diverge on how asset sales, loans and off‑budget funds are treated. The headline balance aggregates every cash flow—tax receipts, day‑to‑day spending, capital projects, asset purchases and sales, loan activity, and equity injections—while a secondary measure excludes some of these items. This methodological split can mask the true scale of public debt, leading many Australians to underestimate fiscal exposure. The article argues the current reporting approach effectively misleads the public about the nation’s debt burden.
AI Productivity Won?t Solve Advanced Economy Debt Woes-
Kenneth Rogoff argues that AI‑driven productivity gains are unlikely to cure advanced economies' ballooning budget deficits. While AI may boost output, it also shifts income toward capital, eroding the labor tax base and prompting governments to spend more rather than...
Asia Tightens Grip on Global Wealth as UHNWI Ranks Swell- #Wealth #AssetManagement #AssetFinance
Knight Frank's Wealth Report shows ultra‑high‑net‑worth individuals (UHNWIs) increased by 162,000 between 2021 and 2026, pushing the global total above 713,000. Asia‑Pacific now accounts for nearly 31% of the UHNW population, with China remaining the second‑largest wealth hub. India’s ultra‑wealthy...
Examining Opportunities and Obstacles Facing Central Asia’s Quest to Reach Sea
A Capitol Hill forum hosted by the New Lines Institute highlighted the Silk Seven Plus (S7+) initiative, which envisions a Greater Central Asian economic community linking the Caspian Basin to the Arabian Sea. Experts stressed Afghanistan’s pivotal role as the...
Fuel Scab Albo Crushes Gas Tax Hopes
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is leaning against a proposed gas export tax, citing volatile global fuel markets and the need to preserve diplomatic ties with key LNG partners such as Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. He highlighted that gas...
Stock Markets Are Too High and Set to Fall, Says Bank of England Deputy
Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden warned that global equity markets are perched at all‑time highs and are likely to experience a correction. She highlighted multiple converging risks, including a potential macro‑economic shock, over‑inflated AI valuations and a fragile...
Brazil Beckoned: China Now Has Stock and Bond ‘Connect’ Schemes in These 5 Regions
China has launched its first emerging‑market bond‑connect with Brazil, linking Chinese investors to Brazilian sovereign debt and vice‑versa. The move expands China’s portfolio of offshore "connect" schemes, which already include Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Switzerland, covering both equity...
Who Really Drives Innovation
In a new macro‑economic study, Paolo Surico and co‑authors use detailed patent records to trace the impact of publicly funded research in the United States since World War II. Their analysis shows that the National Institutes of Health and the National...
How a Nation Was Born: Lessons From Four Centuries of Brazilian Growth
A new CEPR paper reconstructs Brazil’s GDP per capita from 1574 to 1920 using 30,000 archival price and wage observations. The study finds Brazil enjoyed relatively high incomes in the late‑1500s, followed by two centuries of near‑zero growth despite commodity...
Survey: SMBs Have Built “Tariff Toolkits” To Cope with Disruption
A Netstock survey shows that 82 % of U.S. small and medium‑sized businesses have begun passing tariff costs to customers, with 92 % using direct price hikes. The shift follows a year of heightened White House tariff policies that squeezed margins and...
Commentary: Get Ready for Another Summer of Rage in Asia
Asia’s Gen Z faces a summer of economic strain as the Iran war drives up fuel, food and fertilizer prices, deepening already fragile job prospects. The price shock has sparked strikes in the Philippines, protests in India and Pakistan, and threatens...
Panama Canal Traffic Climbs as Officials Downplay Congestion Fears
The Panama Canal reported a rise in traffic during the first half of fiscal year 2026, handling 6,288 transits and a 5% increase in cargo to 254 million tons. Daily vessel averages climbed to 34 in January and 37 in March,...
Flexible Dual-Use Claims Could Be New Global Trade Chokepoint
The U.S. Navy seized the Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel Touska, alleging it carried dual‑use components en route from China via Malaysia. The incident highlights how wartime pressure can reclassify ordinary commercial cargo as strategically sensitive, a trend reflected in rising EU...
Trump Moves to Extend Jones Act Waiver 90 Days as Maritime Industry Says Fuel Relief Never Came
The White House is set to extend the Jones Act waiver that began on March 17 for an additional 90 days, shifting its focus from fuel‑price relief to national‑defense logistics. The request, submitted by the Under Secretary of War, argues that...
Trump Administration Extends Jones Act Waiver for Another 90 Days
The Trump administration, after issuing a 60‑day waiver to ease coastwise transport of petroleum and fertilizer, is weighing a further 90‑day extension of the Jones Act exemption. About 40 foreign‑flagged vessels have already moved products between U.S. ports, delivering gasoline...
Can The US Really Offset Lost Persian Gulf Crude Oil Production?
President Donald Trump urged nations to buy U.S. oil after the Iran conflict began, but the United States remains a net importer of crude, taking in about 1.5 million barrels per day. In the week of April 17, 2026, U.S. exports of refined...
Container Shipping Faces Blank Sailings, Falling Demand From Prolonged Iran War
Maritime consultancy Drewry has lowered its forecast for global container‑port throughput growth to 1.8% from 2.2% in February, citing the ongoing US‑Israel war with Iran. Shipping lines anticipate a wave of blank sailings, service cancellations and routing adjustments as the...
CFOs’ Budgets Quickly Become Outdated Amid Macro Turmoil
CFOs are grappling with rapidly outdated budgets as geopolitical shocks—such as the US‑Israel conflict and blockades in the Strait of Hormuz—inject unprecedented volatility into cost structures. Rydoo’s CFO Aidana Zhakupbekova says traditional quarterly forecasts no longer suffice, prompting larger buffers...
Commerce Releases Prelim Antidumping Tariffs in India, Indonesia, Laos Solar Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary antidumping duties on solar cells from India (123.04%), Indonesia (35.17%) and Laos (22.46%). Combined with preliminary countervailing duties, India faces the steepest overall tariff burden. The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade,...
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Slash Emerging Market Growth, South Africa Hit Hardest
The International Monetary Fund warned that an expanding war in the Middle East could push global growth down to about 2% and depress emerging‑market output by roughly twice the rate seen in advanced economies. South Africa and other oil‑importing sub‑Saharan...
Panama’s GDP Slumps 5% After First Quantum’s Cobre Panama Mine Closure
First Quantum Minerals’ 2023 shutdown of the Cobre Panama copper mine erased roughly 5% of Panama’s GDP and 7% of export earnings, costing about $2 billion in lost revenue and eliminating over 40,000 jobs. The loss has driven growth down to...
IEA Chief Warns of Unprecedented Energy Security Threat as 13 Million Barrels per Day Vanish
International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol told CNBC the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day from global supply, calling it the largest energy‑security threat ever. The loss is driving soaring...
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
The Hidden Toll of Tariffs
In this episode of Thoughts on the Market, Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter and economist Mayank Fatki examine the current state of U.S. tariffs, noting that effective rates have fallen to about 8% but are expected to stabilize...
What’s the Deal with Iran? The Asymmetric Energy Trade Markets Are Missing
The article argues that while the immediate price shock from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions has been absorbed—Brent briefly spiked toward $120—the real trade opportunity lies in a structural asymmetry within energy equities. Two macro scenarios, either prolonged regional tension...
Iran War Slows Growth in Services, Manufacturing: S&P Global
S&P Global reports that Iran’s ongoing war has pushed the services purchasing managers index to its weakest three‑month level since early 2024, while output prices surged to a 45‑month high. Manufacturing output grew at the fastest pace in four years,...
China Advances Tech, Economy Hesitates, Military Stalls
our first ask ian live. a caller asked if china is shifting from second gear to third. technologically, yes. economically, maybe. militarily, not so much. xi still playing the long game. @gzeromedia
Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Heightened Commodity Demand
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why commodities are HOT: "Trump's tariffs and sanctions have disrupted the global movement of goods. There is risk and uncertainty as to what Trump will do next, and that increases a precautionary demand for commodities of...
Rare Diesel Cargoes Move From US West Coast to Australia
Three tankers have departed the U.S. West Coast carrying more than 925,000 barrels of ultra‑low sulfur diesel bound for Australia, a route rarely used before the recent Middle East conflict. The volume shipped in the past two months nearly matches...
Only 31% Chance of US‑Iran Peace Deal by May
According to @Polymarket, there is only a 31% chance of a US–Iran permanent peace deal by the end of May. TRUMP = FOREVER WAR = ANTI-MAGA. https://t.co/yzmYFnG1W9
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
Canadian GDP Set to Rebound in Early 2026: Survey
Canada’s economy is projected to rebound in early 2026, with the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) forecasting 1.6% GDP growth in both Q1 and Q2 after a 0.6% annualized contraction in Q4 2025. The recovery is driven by strong...
Money Supply Growth Hits 3.5%, Far Below Historic Median
The collective money supply growth rate across the US, Japan and Eurozone is 3.5%, lower than 83% of all readings since 1997. The median is 4.9%. I don't want to minimize Hormuz, but as far as this chart is concerned,...
Private Credit Masks Volatility, Echoes 2008 Shadow Banking
Private credit may hide volatility, but hiding it doesn't make it disappear. We learned that lesson with shadow banks in 2008. Is private credit just shadow banking with a new name? Partly yes, partly no. The honest answer is rarely...
What Next For BRICS In An Upside-Down World
The BRICS bloc, formed two decades ago to give emerging economies a louder voice, has now eclipsed the G7 in share of global GDP measured by purchasing power parity. India’s 2026 BRICS presidency centers on "Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation...
US Announces Preliminary Antidumping Tariffs on Solar Imports
Commerce releases prelim antidumping tariffs in India, Indonesia, Laos solar case #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/JT14vdnOoi
Double Blockade in Persian Gulf Spikes Global Energy Prices
The situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened. Despite the ceasefire, a double blockade has broken out. It's one big cluster, and the global energy markets are feeling the heat. #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/iV7sYWClso
Americans Cut Spending Due to Higher Gas Prices and See No Relief in Sight, CNBC Survey Finds
A CNBC All‑America Economic Survey of 1,000 adults shows roughly 80% have altered their spending because gas prices have jumped over 30% to more than $4 per gallon since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. More than half expect the...
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
Easy Policy Fuels Stock Rise, Then Yield Spike Crashes Markets
One of the popular narratives is from those focused on easy policy stance and persistent inflation. It follows the purple line. Higher stock prices with modestly higher yields driven by growth and inflation and then a capitulation by central...
Washington’s One-Dimensional Chess in the Horn of Africa
The Trump administration is reportedly holding secret talks to lift U.S. sanctions on Eritrea, a move that diverges from the usual pattern of sanction relief following political reform or conflict resolution. Eritrea’s authoritarian regime, led by Isaias Afwerki since 1993, shows...
White House May Extend Jones Act Waiver 90 Days
90 days? As in 3 more months? Surely they can't expect the Hormuz crisis to last until July... right?
China Moves From Sanctions Victim to Export Regulator
"After years...on the receiving end of sanctions, China is now developing its own export control regime. Last year's controls on rare earths only signalled the beginning of what might be a much greater degree of intervention" - from @China_Digital https://t.co/EzBswTk66J
BREAKING: Congressman Tom Suozzi Just Tore Apart Trump’s Trade Defense With One Simple Line of Questioning
In this episode, host challenges the prevailing narrative that recent U.S. tariffs are dramatically raising household costs, disputing figures from the Tax Foundation, Yale Budget Lab, and Moody's that claim tariffs add $1,000 to $4,200 per family annually. The discussion...
Chinese Export Share Soars as US Tariffs Shift Demand
China’s share of global car sales jumped from 4.5% to 11.4%, and global sales of electronics JUMPED from 20.7% to 26.1%. The scope and scale of Chinese exports is SURGING. Thanks to Trump's tariffs, the world is pivoting away from made in...
China Seeks Oil Edge via Hormuz Amid Global Supply Strains
Strait of Hormuz. Oil. China vs others. Are they in a position to gain an edge with needy countries? Then what with trade supply chains?
MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis
In this episode, Saxo Bank’s chief commodity strategist Ola Hansen explains how the Iran crisis is rippling through energy markets, refined products, fertilizers, metals and agriculture, creating extreme backwardation in crude oil futures. He argues that the forward curve’s steep backwardation...
Tariff Refunds Clouded by Trump Favoritism
Check the Vegas odds of Trump keeping some of the illegal import tax monies. How long will tariff refunds take? Why is this not a clean process? Will Lutnick’s sons who bought tariffs on the cheap be given special treatment?
Trump Reportedly Invites Russia to G20 After Renewing Russian Oil Waiver
President Donald Trump has reportedly extended a Treasury waiver that allows sanctioned Russian oil to be sold globally through mid‑May 2026, a move estimated to add roughly $9 billion to Moscow’s war‑funding. At the same time, Russian officials claim they have...
Petro to Meet with Delcy
Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet Venezuelan acting president Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas to discuss border security and the prospect of Colombian gas imports from Venezuela. The talks mark the first high‑level contact since the U.S. military ousted former President...