Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
President Donald Trump formally nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, aiming for quicker interest‑rate cuts. Warsh, known for advocating balance‑sheet reduction and lower rates, faces a skeptical FOMC amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari and Beth Hammack, warn that higher oil prices could reignite inflation, prompting a pause on cuts at the March 18 meeting. Markets now expect the benchmark rate to stay at 3.5‑3.75% through mid‑year.
Container lines have halted 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific service contract negotiations as the Middle East war ties up roughly 10% of global container tonnage and pushes bunker fuel prices higher. The conflict adds uncertainty to cost structures and functional capacity, prompting carriers...
Container carriers are pausing or slowing 2026‑27 trans‑Pacific service contract negotiations as they gauge the fallout from the Middle East war. The conflict has immobilized an estimated 2 %‑10 % of global container tonnage, tightening available capacity. Simultaneously, soaring bunker fuel prices...
The European Commission unveiled two coordinated initiatives—the EU Industrial Maritime Strategy and the EU Ports Strategy—to reinforce Europe’s shipbuilding capacity, secure port operations, and accelerate the sector’s shift to clean energy. Key measures include a Maritime Value Chains Alliance, a...
Qatar Energy declared force majeure on its LNG exports, halting production at the Ras Laffan plant amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The shutdown, which affects roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas, is expected to last at least...
Defense Metals received conditional approval for C$1.88 million from Canada’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund to build a 60‑km transmission line delivering up to 35 MW of hydroelectric power to its Wicheeda rare‑earth project in British Columbia. The Wicheeda deposit holds 25.5 million tonnes...
The New York Times argues that the best response to the Iran‑Israel conflict‑driven market turbulence is to stay the course. While short‑term speculation in energy, defense stocks, gold or Treasuries can appear tempting, academic research shows that most investors achieve better...
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
We just updated Flexport Atlas to better track disruption to container shipping from the Iran war. Go to https://t.co/W2RkZnA4nS and use hotkey “D” to toggle it on. Our status calculations (all real time) Stalled: stayed within 30 km radius for 24h ...
Cargo charter brokers report a surge in enquiries after the US‑Israel missile strikes on Iran triggered the grounding of major Gulf carriers. Qatar Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo and Etihad Cargo have largely halted scheduled flights, prompting shippers to seek ad‑hoc charters....
🇺🇸🇪🇸USA & Spain are at odds over Iran, and Trump has floated a trade embargo. What could that mean for U.S. ag? On the import side, olive oil would be the biggest victim. USA exported a record $2.4B in farm goods...
The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, halting Qatari LNG production and sharply raising global energy prices. About one‑fifth of world oil and LNG passes the strait,...
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report finds that more than half of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) now operate under at least one fiscal rule, up from roughly 15 % in 2000. Fiscal rules are linked to medium‑term...
The United States’ declaration of war on Iran has pushed crude oil to around $74 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, prompting expectations of higher‑for‑longer energy costs. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation, forcing bond investors...
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that...
In this episode Deepika Singh talks with Rajamani Krishnamurthy, President of the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISDA), about the rapid expansion of India’s stainless‑steel sector and the structural challenges it faces. Krishnamurthy stresses that the biggest hurdle is the prevailing...
Re: concerns about how loss of manufacturing capacity in the US has put national security at risk in the case of a war. It seems like looking how to address shortages we observe now, with so much US-armed global conflict...
This is a repeat of what happened in 2020 under the first Trump admin. Back when they first started exploring the TikTok ban as well. Was primarily around how Riot, Epic and others handled US user data. Ultimately...
Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have revived concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly one‑fifth of global oil shipments. Analysts outline three scenarios: a contained but prolonged missile exchange, a broader regional war...
President Trump deployed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to Venezuela as part of his bid to revive oil & mineral production there. In between conversations with oil and mining executives, Burgum is now meeting w/ interim President Delcy Rodriguez. https://t.co/beZPI3VM4I https://t.co/vc6M08u0pz
"US to Pay Interest If Ordered to Pay Importers Tariff Refunds" https://t.co/An3drmGJ4F It is the law, after all. Question is: how many refunds actually get issued after a lengthy court/administrative battle. The answer should be: all, now. But... https://t.co/xGmrydPr1P
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed...
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Can we avoid typical low-price cures toward $40 crude, $3.5 corn in 2026? Bitcoin bear market prove otherwise starts at about $74,000 https://t.co/TATxs2Sdkc
A week after the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, industry leaders report little immediate impact on sourcing, freight bookings, or trade volumes. Companies are adopting a cautious stance, reviewing inventory and carrier commitments while holding existing network configurations. The ruling provides...
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
EU expects exemption from the US universal tariff boost to 15% https://t.co/XiyLxBsgAB via @jendeben https://t.co/I0YRgVF88F
Turo’s fourth State of Car Ownership in Canada shows tariff uncertainty and rising cost‑of‑living pressures are dampening vehicle purchases. Seventy‑five percent of Canadians worry tariffs will lift prices, and one‑third say they are now less likely to buy a car....
Assuming Trump backs off his Spanish Embargo threat (a safe assumption, IMO), it won't just be another TACO. It'll perfectly prove @ATabarrok's point here about why an emergency wartime law like IEEPA would allow a presidential import ban but not...
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
In this episode, host Sean talks with Stonex analyst Josh Linville about the sudden disruption to global fertilizer markets caused by the U.S. military operation in Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They explain how the...
How close is the EU to break free from Visa and Mastercard's grip? https://t.co/S2cCelErDw 47% of the eurozone’s card payment value passed through Visa & Mastercard in 2025! This is not only financial, it is strategic.
My views on Trump’s tariffs and the tariff man himself: “The public is fed up with these tariffs. 64% of the American public is thumbs down on tariffs. Politically, they're not popular, and the reason is that they're sales taxes on...
Global corporates are intensifying foreign‑exchange risk management as trade volatility spikes. A new Treasury Today survey shows 88% now hedge FX, with 61% of previously unhedged firms contemplating hedging. Despite a 67% surge in hedging costs, activity has risen and...
This take-and yes dalio too-fundamentally fails to understand why central banks are broken and why they need bitcoin In an age where there is growing distrust everywhere, the only way - and i really mean the ONLY way- to fix the...
$USOIL - Crude oil is already showing initial signs of topping as it did last June. I can't believe that some people are gullible enough to believe, that empty threats made by Iran about $200 crude oil prices, are actually...
Escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have erupted into open war, with Pakistan conducting air strikes on Kabul, Kandahar and Bagram, and the Taliban responding by targeting Pakistani military sites. The conflict follows a surge in cross‑border attacks by groups...
Yesterday, the US military bombed drone sites across Iran. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, 742 civilians, including 176 children, have been killed in the bombings since Saturday. https://t.co/OYnTObNhC0
Cosco suspends bookings on Gulf. China is an Iran ally. Why would a Chinese carrier do this?
Abercrombie & Fitch announced it will factor a 15 percent U.S. tariff into its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting net‑sales growth of 3‑5 percent and earnings per share between $10.20 and $11. The company estimates the tariff will shave about 70 basis points...
The Loadstar - Air cargo capacity on key Asia-Europe corridors has fallen 39% following the shutdown of major Gulf airspace and hubs amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. https://t.co/XxAzcLFVzn https://t.co/VVlvHRVoSr
Container shipping companies halt bookings, divert vessels due to Middle East risks https://t.co/WzcNxIAkRJ via @WSJ
Canada and Brazil have signed a technical cooperation agreement to apply artificial intelligence to nickel exploration. The Geological Survey of Canada and Brazil’s Geological Survey will merge geology, geochemistry, geophysics and remote‑sensing data into a shared AI‑driven modelling platform. Initial...
I just posted a detailed macro breakdown of today's rally on @SliceApp This is where I share the deeper analysis, market correlations, macro trade ideas, and lessons I don't post anywhere else Join the community 👉 https://t.co/2RO8ANwj2x https://t.co/TKe1RoxUOt
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...
A year after the Trump administration’s stop‑work orders halted U.S. development assistance, Kenya is feeling the loss of roughly $470 million per year that USAID had funneled into its economy, 80 % of it earmarked for health. The abrupt funding gap coincides...
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown https://t.co/5eQUPlo1xx
South Korea’s KOSPI index dropped the most since the 2008 financial crisis. It’s all starting to fit together My latest at Culpium https://t.co/75TudacVv5
In this Morning Market Brief, Lars Fuller explains the S&P's rebound after a 2.5% drop, attributing it to U.S. actions securing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which lowered oil prices from $77 to the $74‑$75 range. He predicts...
It seems difficult to say we should worry about AI and the US debt. Seems like its going to be one or the other.
