Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Korea Marine Transport Co (KMTC) has placed a KRW 372.4 bn ($258 m) order for six 1,800‑TEU feeder containerships with HD Hyundai shipyards. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between August 2027 and June 2028, adding to KMTC’s fleet of more than 60 ships that serve intra‑Asia routes. The contract follows KMTC’s recent moves into larger vessel classes, including 8,700‑TEU and 13,000‑TEU orders. The deal underscores a deepening partnership between the liner and HD Hyundai’s shipbuilding units.
The United States, via Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is urging diplomats to counter foreign data‑sovereignty measures, calling EU regulations overly burdensome and a threat to innovation. At the same time, France announced it will replace Microsoft Teams and Zoom with...
Latin America’s MSCI index surged 20% in the first two months of the year, lifting the region’s weight in the global benchmark from 5% to roughly 15%, a level not seen since the early 2000s. The original “Big 3” markets—Argentina, Brazil...
Global equities fell sharply on March 1 as the Iran crisis escalated, with Asian shares dropping 1.6% and U.S. and European futures slipping over 1% and 1.7% respectively. The heightened geopolitical risk pushed investors toward safe‑haven assets, lifting the U.S....
The travel and tourism sector is confronting a perfect storm of economic uncertainty, rising tax burdens, and mounting infrastructure strain. Consumer confidence dips have already curbed discretionary travel spending, while layered fees on flights, hotels and rentals add friction for...
The Atlantic Council essay by Ahmed Charai examines how the United States can preserve a credible deterrence posture in the Middle East after the eventual death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Charai argues that Washington must blend conventional force,...
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February posted a solid gain of 210,000 jobs, nudging the unemployment rate down to 3.6%. The report arrived amid heightened geopolitical tension following the weekend assassination that sparked an Iran‑Israel conflict. Investors grappled with strong labor...
India’s electronics and tech exports to the Gulf, valued at $4.5 billion in FY26, face disruption as the Iran‑Israel conflict restricts airspace and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates, the second‑largest buyer, accounted for $4.1 billion of those shipments,...
Why are European countries just now standing up to Russia's oil revenue and shadow fleet after the war just crossed its 4 year anniversary? What has changed? Has the US done more to help Ukraine in the last year than...
A new Australian study using HILDA survey data and latent class analysis identified six distinct profiles of discouraged workers – people who want a job but have stopped looking. The groups range from young, low‑educated men to older, well‑educated women...
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to push global pulse prices higher, threatening a rise in dal costs for Indian households. India imports roughly 5‑6 million tonnes of pulses from Myanmar, Canada and Africa, leaving the domestic market vulnerable to...
The escalating Middle East conflict sparked a fire at Jabel Ali port, the UAE hub that moves roughly 65 % of GCC polymer exports and 33 % of regional petrochemical cargo. The blaze, caused by debris from an aerial interception, resulted in no...
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil conduit, has seen trade reduced to a trickle after a wave of escalatory attacks. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, followed by Iranian reprisals triggered by the reported assassination of Supreme Leader...
US-Israel Invasion of Iran May Cap Crude and Gold - Gold and crude oil may show signs of peaking if the conflict is quick and infrastructure isn't impaired. Both were up about 20% in 2026 before Feb. 28. If typical swift...
Iranian drone attacks on Dubai and other Gulf cities followed the launch of Operation Epic Fury, immediately crippling air services and throttling ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, heavily dependent on imported food...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged the United States and European allies to develop a coordinated "day after" strategy for Iran following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader. He reaffirmed Germany’s support for Washington’s objective of ending Tehran’s...
Some Iranian citizens attempting to cross the Kapıköy land border into Turkey were stopped on March 1, days after the United States and Israel launched strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. Travelers reported 300‑400 people waiting on the Iranian side, while...
MUFG Bank expects U.S. tariffs on Philippine imports to decline following the Supreme Court’s decision that curbed the Trump administration’s emergency‑powers tariff authority. The bank notes that exemptions for high‑value semiconductors and key agricultural products should keep effective trade costs...
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that confidence in the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven status is waning. He noted that recent market turbulence has led international investors to question the dollar’s reliability, contributing to its ongoing weakness. Nagel...
The article highlights how simultaneous geopolitical tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Pakistan’s Arabian Sea threaten global maritime trade. Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings triggered tanker stand‑offs, navigation interference, and a surge in war‑risk insurance premiums, while...
Two different worlds entirely. With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, oil producers closing production and oil tanker insurance companies ceasing coverage in the middle east: Person with no solar & no EV: Congrats, your gas expense may soon double, your...
U.S. officials are negotiating a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that could permit the kingdom to develop uranium enrichment capabilities. Congressional documents and the Arms Control Association warn the deal may create a pathway to a Saudi weapons program,...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) omits key out‑of‑pocket healthcare expenses, masking true inflation for many Americans. While the CPI shows a modest 3% rise since President Trump’s second inauguration, premiums on the ACA marketplace have...
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
In this urgent episode of Reuters Morning Bid, hosts Carmel Crimmins and Amanda Cooper dissect the fallout from a wave of US and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, sparking Iranian drone and missile retaliation. They highlight the immediate...
The escalating Gulf conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is rippling through global tourism, prompting sentiment‑driven hesitation among long‑haul travelers while leaving Thailand largely insulated. Short‑term booking delays and modest fare increases are expected as airlines absorb higher...
Geopolitical tensions surged after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait’s Boursa Kuwait suspended all trading, while Saudi, Oman and Bahrain markets slipped 1‑2% despite Saudi Aramco’s 2.6% rally on rising oil...
Skuld P&I announced the cancellation of its war‑risk coverage for vessels operating in the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, citing a deteriorating geopolitical climate after US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions. The notice...
Bunker traders in Fujairah, the Middle East’s largest marine fuels hub, are preparing for a sharp decline in demand after heightened Gulf tensions and unverified warnings of a Strait of Hormuz closure. Recent missile strikes near Fujairah and Jebel Ali have...
Canada and Mexico posted record foreign direct investment in 2025, underscoring North America’s growing role as a manufacturing hub. Canada received $96.8 billion, the strongest inflow in 18 years, while Mexico attracted a historic $40.87 billion, a 10.8% year‑over‑year rise. U.S. investors...
State‑owned QatarEnergy Marketing postponed its March Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) announcement to 4 March, citing recent geopolitical developments. February’s QSP was set at $520 per tonne FOB, a modest $3 increase from January. The delay follows the US‑Israeli strike on Iran,...
Middle East Tensions Update & Possible impact on global financial markets going into the next week : https://youtu.be/XZvRoREIMoY?si=LIlBTBlEX3F68ljk
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan said Netanyahu’s “provocations” triggered the US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Erdoğan said that Israel is “poisoning the process,” and urged an immediate ceasefire to prevent a wider regional war. https://t.co/y2YtJLqeUy
Following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, crude oil prices surged, with WTI at $67.29 and Brent at $72.87. Barclays raised its Brent forecast to $100 per barrel, citing heightened supply‑disruption risk...
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
Artificial intelligence is moving from hype to tangible disruption, with AI‑driven code generation eroding the market value of traditional IT services firms such as IBM, which saw a 13% drop in market capitalisation. The technology is also bypassing established middlemen...
A sharp oil spike to those levels would likely result in a one-variable stock market like we initially saw during the 1990’s Persian Gulf War. Stocks under pressure until oil prices come back down. https://t.co/8DQZhDYXqo
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
"This small business owner is already giving her customers a tariff refund" https://t.co/958bIzS0SL "if somebody charges you something and it's unlawful, they should give you your money back" Cc: The White House https://t.co/82Lv6OPwJw
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
"The Incoherence of Modest Industrial Policy" https://t.co/FC72XUqs6v "If policymakers admit they are operating in unknown territory, then the idea that they can steer society in a coherent direction becomes less a policy strategy and more an article of faith." https://t.co/pTa6RJfJnQ
IRAN WAR will test the vulnerability of oil markets - I got to write some thoughts in the Financial Times: https://t.co/L7TKTXxT7U
Americans have SOURED on Pres. Trump. According to the latest Economist poll, 71% of Americans say that Trump’s tariffs increased the price they paid for goods and services. TO DISTRACT AMERICANS, TRUMP HAS JUST STARTED A WAR. https://t.co/WAh0999SVq
Thailand's January CPI is -0.6%/yr. That's the 10th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its Money Supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward. https://t.co/uOhD8pfFUa
If there isn't a new energy shock (a big if), the surpluses of the chip exporting powers (Korea and Taiwan) are going to be absolutely stunning this year. 1/2 https://t.co/N2A7u4k1ai
What is the #1 trade you want to be holding when a Middle East war breaks out over the weekend? ⬇️
