Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Ireland’s rental market tightened sharply in early 2026, with 2025 rents climbing 4.4% to an average €2,086 for a two‑bedroom unit. Listings plunged 22% year‑over‑year, leaving fewer than 1,800 homes available nationwide in February, the lowest February figure since 2006. Dublin saw the steepest pressure, where average two‑bedroom rents hit €2,438 and city‑center units approached €2,700. New nationwide rent‑control rules taking effect on March 1 cap annual increases at 2%, but they do not apply to existing leases.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Geopolitical shocks feel scary… but history says bottoms come faster than you think. Avg S&P drawdown: -4.6% Avg time to bottom: 19 days Avg recovery: 40 days 6–12 months later? Mostly positive.
Canadian miner Taseko Mines announced its Florence Copper operation in Arizona has produced its first copper cathodes, the first new US copper output from a greenfield project since 2008. The electrowinning plant began commercial operations in late February, positioning Florence...
Shippers including Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM have halted Suez Canal transits as the United States and Israel intensify conflict with Iran, fearing renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Egypt estimates a $9 billion loss in transit fees, with canal revenues...
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and...
Central Asia’s five states (C5) have coalesced around a sovereignty‑first coordination model, dubbed a “soft confederation,” that emphasizes consensus and minimal delegation. Recent C5+ diplomatic rounds—an EU summit in Samarkand, a U.S. White House meeting, and Germany’s C5+1 foreign‑minister talks—have...
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas reviewed crude, LPG and petroleum product supplies as Iran‑Israel tensions heightened global energy volatility. Brent crude surged to roughly $82 a barrel, prompting concerns over the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint that carries about...
Low oil prices for much of the past year have helped cool inflation & given Trump license to tout more affordable prices at the pump. But if there was one scenario most likely to upset that trend, it was a...
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA‑based tariffs, cutting the effective import duty to 9.1% and replacing them with temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs. The modest rate reduction muted market reaction but creates clear tailwinds for firms previously hit hard by...
The February Sinification digest captures a widening debate within China over how to navigate a fragmenting global order. Analysts propose a shift from free‑trade to “managed trade” frameworks, while others call for crystal‑clear economic red lines comparable to Taiwan policy....
The strikes happened. Charles Myers laid out exactly what was coming — and now he’s the person to tell you what markets are still getting wrong. Steven Ehrlich sat with him hours before it happened. His full breakdown of what...
March 2, 2026 Economic Events : 0945 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.2 | Prior 51.2 1000 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): Exp 51.7 | Prior 52.6 1000 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Exp 60.6 | Prior 59.0 1130 – ATL Fed GDPNow (Q1):...
February proved the year’s second‑worst market month as AI‑related anxieties and rising private‑credit loan‑loss fears weighed on equities. The Producer Price Index jumped 0.5% month‑over‑month and 2.9% year‑to‑date, pushing expectations of near‑term Federal Reserve rate cuts lower. Over the weekend,...
🚨 TRADERS ALERT 🚨 📊 What to Watch This Week 🗓️ Mon: Iran war fallout + ISM Manufacturing 🗓️ Tue: Fed speakers 🗓️ Wed: ADP + ISM Services 🗓️ Thu: Jobless Claims 🗓️ Fri: NFP + Retail Sales + more Fed speak But make no mistake -...
The Reserve Bank of Australia disclosed that a more aggressive rate‑hiking path would have added roughly 200,000 unemployed workers and pushed mortgage repayments up by about $500 a month on a $600,000 loan. Chief economist Sarah Hunter’s internal modelling shows...
The United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, triggering a sharp rise in global oil prices. Brent crude surged 13% before settling 8.5% higher, marking its biggest daily jump in nearly three years. The conflict has halted...
Corn, soybeans and wheat opened the month with firm trade but moved to mixed pricing as the night session progressed. Market focus shifted to geopolitics after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting risk‑led buying and sharp...
Chinese authorities announced a dramatic cut to the anti‑dumping duty on Canadian canola seed, lowering it to 5.9% from the 75.8% rate imposed in August 2025. Including China’s standard 9% import levy, the effective tariff becomes 14.9%, a figure the...
Iran’s recent missile barrage over the Persian Gulf resulted in debris striking Jebel Ali, the world’s busiest container port, igniting a fire that forced a temporary shutdown. The incident halted more than 10% of global container throughput, disrupting supply chains that...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will force Indian garment exporters to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 20‑25 days to transit times. Higher freight costs and longer shipping windows threaten the tight seasonal calendars of...
RFI preferred: similar REIT CEFs face a lower-rates tailwind; RFI shows larger mean-reversion upside vs RQI. Risk: rate/timing, leverage. Trade: buy RFI for yield + discount recovery 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Brazil deepened its agricultural partnership with the Philippines at WOFEX Drinks and Bakes 2026, showcasing five firms that offer value‑added beverages, superfoods, and coffee products. The Brazil Pavilion highlighted innovative, sustainability‑focused offerings such as Amazon‑sourced craft gin, açaí bowls, and...
Mark Carlson’s Federal Reserve note examines the era before the Fed when U.S. commercial banks issued their own paper money, backed by a mix of bank assets and government bonds. The piece highlights how those privately‑issued notes depended on a...
Critical minerals have become the centerpiece of the U.S.-China rivalry, but the contest is playing out in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America. While China dominates mid‑stream processing of rare earths and battery materials, Washington is building "friend‑shoring" partnerships to...
Sunil Mani’s new book India’s High‑Tech Leap reviews the rise of six high‑tech sectors—pharmaceuticals, software services, COVID‑19 vaccines, wind turbines, solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles—under India’s Make‑in‑India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. He credits government intervention and public‑private collaboration for early successes but flags...
India’s cumulative exports reached $720.76 billion in April‑January 2025‑26, a 6.15% increase over the same period last year. Services exports surged 10.57% to $354.13 billion, while merchandise categories such as electronics and pharmaceuticals posted broad‑based gains. Defence exports hit a record Rs 23,622 crore,...
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
Former deputy energy minister Vladimir Milov’s open‑source analysis shows Russia’s defense‑industrial output, which surged in 2023‑24, is now decelerating sharply. Production of weapons, electronics and combat vehicles fell to roughly half of prior-year levels by late 2025, with some categories...
South Africa’s green transition is boosting employment, with green jobs rising from 12.4% of the labour force in 2022 to 14.8% in 2024. Growth is concentrated in utilities, mining, construction and finance, driven by government procurement and sustainable‑finance policies. However,...
Prolonged tension in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, if sustained, and a weaker Rand. Add the increased fuel levies announced in the budget speech on top of macro concerns, and taking the governor’s conservative nature and the new 3% inflation...
Russia’s Arctic LNG shadow fleet continues to transit the Red Sea corridor despite heightened Middle‑East tensions, using the shortcut to reach Asian markets. At least seven ice‑class and conventional carriers have been tracked moving through the Bab el‑Mandeb and Suez...
Elevated volatility as oil spikes and heavy Treasury settlements. S&P gamma at 6800; VIX resists ~20. Risk: higher oil, weaker productivity → yields up. Trade: buy SPX dips near 6800. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hedge funds significantly increased long positions in crude oil as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, anticipating a potential supply shock. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows a roughly 15% rise in net long exposure, equivalent to about...
The death of Iran’s supreme leader and subsequent missile exchanges have raised alarms about a possible Straits of Hormuz shutdown, which could cut 10‑20 million barrels per day from global supply. Analysts debate the price impact, with some warning that panic...
After Iran’s strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery, capital is rotating aggressively into metals. Gold has reclaimed $5,400, up 2.22%, adding roughly $1 trillion in market value in just 6 hours. Silver has surged to $96, up 4.32%, adding $250 billion in...
You have to understand that the high finance industry is the most AI-proof (minus back office) because the edge has never been about efficiency It’s regulatory arbitrage, liquidity monopolies, and bilateral custodial trusts backed by war Its only real vulnerability is socialism
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have sharpened North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's perception of nuclear deterrence, experts say. The attacks could push Pyongyang to reconsider resuming nuclear talks with President Donald...
UK & European gas price benchmarks have both hit 12-month highs, jumping ~50% today after Qatar paused production in the face of Iranian attacks But it's worth putting this in perspective – we're a long way off the insane spikes we saw...
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 14 months later: South Korea +204%, Peru +143%, South Africa +108% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/2Lpruh2h0i
Europe is once again reminded of a structural vulnerability. As I told @politico: “The fact is still that Europe imports most of its energy from other countries. And I think events like this just highlight how problematic, how risky that is...
Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven: There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5%...
Ten-year treasury yields are back above 4%. Very short-lived reaction to the conflict in Middle East. https://t.co/CSDtKBWAFO
Post-COVID, there was hope for an another roaring 20s. It’s been more like the 1970s.
A cold spell in Europe in March would definitely put the cat among the pigeons, but worth remembering that it takes a while for gas prices to feed through to consumer prices, so "flash in the pan" shift won't matter,...
Very interesting > The Strait of Hormuz is not just oil - but also LNG. https://t.co/jlv7Hrp9LJ
The Dollar is rallying on risk-off price action, including against EM (black). Markets are not yet differentiating between oil exporters and oil importers, so everyone's getting hit in EM, but that'll soon give way to markets discerning between these two. https://t.co/AOkYSZgAuL...
Mostly red arrows around the world as weekend Middle East events have the “war time trade” in motion, with silver/gold/oil higher and $SPX futures -70. Key is whether $SPX holds 6780–6790 to keep the upper range intact, or if it...
$USD rallied on the war. Equities slid. Gold and oil jump. US Treasuries are not the safe haven. With decapitation strike on Iran, which the US said it had destroyed its nuclear capability last June, the end...
Ukraine could well ask that the UAE show some reciprocal good will by reducing its systemic enablement of Russian revenue generation.
