Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP growth outlook to be trimmed as West Asia tensions surge
SBI Research warns that the global GDP growth forecast, currently about 3.2%, will likely be cut as West Asia tensions drive crude oil above $100 per barrel and lift metal prices. The surge could add roughly 1.2 percentage points to G20 inflation. While India is expected to expand robustly at 7.2% in FY27, imported inflation there has already reached 5.4%.
ExxonMobil said its worldwide scale and diversified portfolio allow it to mitigate disruptions from the latest Middle East conflict. Senior vice president Jack Williams highlighted the company’s ability to shift feedstock and products using its trading arm and long‑term charter fleet. While oil and LNG markets were well supplied before the war, the real risk hinges on a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The firm emphasized worker safety in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as its immediate priority.
The Container News (CN) Index climbed to 543 this week, keeping global container shipping in the High Pressure zone. Freight rates across major East‑West lanes showed mixed movement, with softness on Asia‑USEC and Asia‑USWC but strength on Far East‑North Europe...
Retailers are turning to cross‑border e‑commerce as domestic markets saturate, with global online sales forecast to hit $6.8 trillion by 2028. A Total Retail whitepaper, created with Melissa Data, highlights that address errors affect nearly one‑fifth of orders, driving costly failures....
Tensions between China and Japan have escalated after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November statement linking Japan’s response to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Japan’s recent electoral win has enabled a surge in defense spending, while China signals willingness...
Freight rates for medium‑range tankers loading on the US Gulf coast surged as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped, prompting buyers to scramble for alternative diesel supplies. Chevron’s Europe‑bound voyage hit Worldscale 365 ($72.39 per tonne), while ATMI’s Caribbean...
Air cargo originating in Asia for the US and Europe will soon pile up at regional airports as the expanding Middle East conflict grounds a sizable share of available capacity. Kuehne + Nagel CEO Stefan Paul warned that backlogs will materialise by...
India has urged developed nations at the WTO ministerial to adopt concrete technology‑transfer measures that would help developing and least‑developed countries access advanced, environmentally‑sound inputs. The proposal highlights export controls on semiconductor chips and rare‑earth minerals, as well as rigid...
India and the United Kingdom are set to activate the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) by early April, granting Indian exporters duty‑free access to 99% of the UK market. However, the ongoing West Asia conflict threatens to disrupt shipping...
Rachel Reeves’s spring statement reaffirmed a commitment to fiscal discipline, citing OBR projections that borrowing will fall and fiscal headroom has increased. The editorial warns that the UK’s exposure to soaring oil and gas prices from the Gulf conflict could...
The episode covers a sharp rise in oil prices amid Middle East tensions, its impact on global markets, and an upgraded Australian Q4 GDP forecast of 0.7% growth. ANZ economists discuss central banks' cautious stance on inflation, noting higher oil...
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
The Macdonald‑Laurier Institute argues that Canada’s internal trade barriers remain a costly, under‑addressed obstacle to growth. While the EU enjoys seamless cross‑border commerce, Canadian provinces still regulate goods, services and professional credentials independently, creating inefficiencies. The report proposes a joint...
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) released a 42‑page report warning that stablecoins have become the most frequently used virtual asset in illicit transactions, including sanctions evasion by Iran and North Korea. It cited data showing stablecoins accounted for 84%...
The Atlantic Council’s #AtlanticDebrief interview with Croatia’s Special Envoy Romana Vlahutin outlines the agenda for the 2026 Three Seas Summit in Dubrovnik. Senior Fellow Ian Brzezinski and Vlahutin discuss how the summit will focus on strategic connectivity, energy diversification, and...
The failed December 7, 2025 coup in Benin has left Niger’s military government even more isolated, sharpening a diplomatic opening for Washington. Niger’s junta seized roughly 1,000 tons of uranium yellowcake from French firm Orano, but legal rulings and transit obstacles have frozen...
The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast examined the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran, framing it as a flashpoint that could reshape Asian strategic calculations. Hosts Ankit Panda and Catherine Putz highlighted how the conflict tests nuclear deterrence credibility and may inspire North...
The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto, drawing over 27,000 attendees, has placed critical minerals at the forefront of its agenda. Industry leaders warned that geopolitical fragmentation is heightening supply‑chain vulnerability for metals such as copper,...
The Treasury published accredited official statistics on GDP deflators and money GDP on 3 March 2026. The dataset provides historical deflator outturns from the 1955‑56 financial year through 2024‑25, sourced from ONS series L8GG (financial years) and MNF2 (calendar years). Money GDP...
Emerging market equities delivered a 33.6% return in 2025, the strongest since 2017, outpacing the MSCI World’s 21.1% gain. Analysts cite continued dollar weakness, lower valuations, and AI exposure as catalysts for further outperformance into 2026. Inflows are expected as...
London’s marine insurers, via the Joint War Committee, have expanded the Gulf’s high‑risk war‑zone to include waters around Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. The move follows a rapid escalation of Middle‑East hostilities, prompting a five‑fold jump in war‑risk premiums...
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
The Russian‑owned LNG carrier Arctic Metagaz caught fire in the central Mediterranean off Malta on Tuesday, with its AIS signal disappearing shortly before the blaze. The vessel, loaded at the Saam floating storage unit, is part of a shadow fleet...
At the outset of World War II, the United States relied almost entirely on imported natural rubber, which supplied roughly 70 percent of tire production. When Japan cut off shipments in April 1942, the country faced a crippling rubber famine that limited military...
The UAE Capital Markets Authority announced that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market will resume trading on Wednesday after a two‑day suspension triggered by Iran’s missile and drone strikes. The closure halted billions of dollars in listed...
U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs on EU imports have risen to 15% after a brief 10% measure, reviving trade tensions despite a prior MFN deal. Europe is pursuing alternative markets, notably a new EU‑India free‑trade agreement that could eliminate up to 11%...
To see exactly which ocean container services are disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz visit Jebel Ali port on Flexport Atlas and look at the list of services calling there. Jebel Ali in Dubai is...
Thoughts? Follow @tallguytycoon - I break down geopolitical events and how they impact investments before the news does.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech called on Canada, India, Australia and Japan to form a middle‑powers club as the liberal order strains under U.S. pressure. The proposal marks a shift toward collective diversification away from the United States...
A bipartisan group of House members led by Rep. Jodey Arrington sent a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer urging the removal of India’s 11% tariff on U.S. cotton as a priority in the pending U.S.–India trade talks. They cite the...
The Port of Chancay, inaugurated in 2024, is a joint COSCO‑Volcan venture financed by a $975 million Chinese loan. In its first ten months of operation, the port moved $1.88 billion in trade and generated $234 million in customs revenue, moving toward a...
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Bullish traders bought 2,000 USO March 20 84‑call contracts on Feb 26, just before the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The closure halted roughly 20 % of global seaborne oil, sending Brent up 13 %...
McKinsey’s latest commodity trading report warns that volatility cycles are shortening, diminishing the relevance of traditional super‑cycle models. Trading revenues slipped to $69 billion in 2025, yet remain about twice pre‑pandemic levels, establishing a higher baseline. The firm highlights AI and...
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply lifted crude oil prices and triggered a surge in freight rates for key non‑ferrous commodities. Major carriers such as MSC, Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd have suspended Middle East bookings and imposed War...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a tightrope between upholding international law and maintaining the transatlantic partnership as the United States, under President Trump, conducts an illegal strike on Iran. Initially, Starmer refused to endorse offensive action, citing the lack...
The Asia‑Pacific is emerging as a pivotal arena where cryptocurrency intersects with sanctions enforcement and state strategy. Blockchain’s peer‑to‑peer settlement bypasses traditional banking chokepoints, allowing actors—from North Korean hackers to Russian entities—to launder stolen assets through mixers, cross‑chain bridges and...
Spot gold has now fallen below $5,100 despite rising global uncertainty. Safe haven bids are fading as traders de risk and raise cash. Silver has dropped under $78, down $20 in just 24 hours. Volatility is accelerating across metals . Is this...
People keep asking, “Why not stablecoins”? The most obvious explanation is actually quite simple: stablecoins can be frozen, Bitcoin can’t
I was on @Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal yesterday to discuss fallout from the spike in oil prices for the global economy and what this means for US reserve currency status. We're getting a risk-off Dollar rally now, but medium-term this...
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
“There’s just not enough GDP to support all of them.” @dampedspring returns to @excessreturnpod to break down the funding test behind the AI Capex boom, how the Iran conflict is being priced, and why he’s shifted away from US assets. https://t.co/wooKnQeQKH
European natural gas is trading at >5x US natural gas prices. Last time this was the case was August 2024. $EQT $AR $RRC $CRK $CNX $EXE https://t.co/f1wU8S3w6b
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV
Semafor: "Weiss’ approach has paid some dividends." For Netanyahu and Trump. A new CBS News emerges amid Iran crisis https://t.co/BllROEbkrD
In contrast to the US indices drop, the $DXY Dollar Index is extending its rally. Risk correlations are increasingly aligning - suggesting a stronger drive in sentiment (specifically 'risk off') https://t.co/TQcm749mr6
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
this is not a joke. this is not a test. this is a global energy emergency unfolding in real time
China won the mineral war. Two new books show how the West let it happen Read more here: https://t.co/9ofBAHFGLx https://t.co/Qa5SYQX6Dg
