Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Moody's Cuts India's FY27 Growth Forecast to 6% Amid West Asia Conflict
Moody's Investors Service reduced its projection for India's fiscal year 2026‑27 GDP growth to 6%, down from 6.8%, blaming weaker consumption, softer industrial activity and soaring energy prices linked to the West Asia conflict. The downgrade clashes with Assocham's optimism that India can sustain growth above 7% despite high crude oil prices, highlighting a split view on the economy's resilience.
UK Industry Sees Business Situation at the Most Pessimistic Since the Covid Pandemic
UK manufacturers reported a modest PMI uptick in April, but the gain was driven mainly by firms front‑loading orders to build safety stocks ahead of expected price hikes and supply constraints. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed a sharp...
Bloomberg Warns Iran War Exposes Europe's Fossil Fuel Reliance, Green Shift at Risk
A Bloomberg analysis warns that the war in Iran has sent European natural‑gas prices soaring more than 60%, exposing the bloc’s continued dependence on fossil fuels. The surge challenges the pace of the EU’s green transition and raises concerns about...
Bangladesh, EU Strike Deal on Trade, Investment, Sustainable Development
On 21 April the EU and Bangladesh signed a modern Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, the first such pact for any South Asian nation. The 82‑article deal covers political dialogue, trade, investment and strategic sectors such as energy, transport and agriculture, while...
Nvidia H200 Chips Still Not Sold to China...Chinese Chipmaker Horizon Robotic Launches 5-Nanometer chip...China’s Low Cost EVs to Be Fitted...
U.S. officials confirm Nvidia’s flagship H200 AI chips have not been shipped to Chinese firms, despite a Trump‑era export licence that remains stalled by regulatory disputes. Meanwhile, Chinese chipmaker Horizon Robotics unveiled a 5‑nanometer automotive processor, the Starry 6P, delivering...
BSP Tightens Policy in the Philippines as Inflation Surge Overrides Growth Concerns
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on April 23, responding to a sharp jump in inflation. Headline inflation accelerated to 4.1% year‑over‑year in March, pushing core inflation to 3.2% and breaching the...
Sergiy Nikolaychuk: Ukraine's Economic and Financial Sector Resilience
Sergiy Nikolaychuk highlighted Ukraine’s remarkable economic and financial resilience after five years of full‑scale war. Despite a 28.8% GDP contraction in 2022, the economy rebounded with 5.5% growth in 2023 and is projected to expand 1.8% in 2026, while inflation...
Has the World Bank Performed a U-Turn on Industrial Policy?
The World Bank’s latest research paper suggests a marked shift toward endorsing selective industrial policies, a departure from its long‑standing free‑market orthodoxy. Historically, the Bank and IMF have conditioned assistance on liberal reforms, dismissing government‑directed winner‑taking as ineffective. The new...
Goldman Strategist Sees European Earnings Pared by Weak Demand
Goldman Sachs’ senior European strategist warned that first‑quarter earnings growth across Europe will likely be limited to a few percent, far below the double‑digit expansion seen in the United States. The slowdown is driven by weak consumer demand, lingering industrial...
Oil Shock May Push up Electricity Costs in India, Renewables Seen as Key to Energy Security: Report
A new ISI Markets report warns that a global oil supply shock could lift electricity tariffs in India, as power prices have historically tracked fossil‑fuel costs. With coal still supplying about 70% of generation, rising oil and coal prices would...
Rising Cost Pressures Starting to Bug the Euro Area Economy
Euro‑area PMI data show a split in April: manufacturing held steady thanks to a surge in new orders, while services weakened amid softer demand and Middle‑East fallout. Input‑price inflation surged to a three‑year high, especially in Germany where firms are...
Why Diesel Has Become a Much Bigger Economic Problem Than Gasoline
The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran has sharply limited diesel supplies, pushing the fuel’s price up about 45 percent since late February—well ahead of gasoline’s 35 percent rise. The Energy Information Administration expects diesel to exceed $5.80 per gallon, while gasoline hovers near...
Xi Wants the Strait of Hormuz Reopened; Cakes and An E-Commerce Crackdown; The Next Stage of Decoupling; The MATCH Act...
In this episode of Sharp China, Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop dissect a recent call between Xi Jinping and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on China's call for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open amid ongoing Iranian...
German Services PMI Plummets Amid Iran War Uncertainty
Good Morning from Germany, where private-sector activity unexpectedly shrank as the Iran war triggered the steepest drop in the services sector in more than three years. S&P's Composite German PMI fell to 48.3 in April, down from 51.9 in March....
How the Iran War Has Stoked Competition Between India and China for Russian Oil
India and China are now locked in a tight race for Russian crude, each securing roughly 1.6 million barrels per day in April. The competition intensified after Iranian attacks disrupted Gulf supplies and the U.S. renewed a waiver allowing sanctioned Russian...
War Turns Sulphur Market Toxic in Acid Supply Shock
Global seaborne sulphur shipments plunged in March 2026, falling 31% month‑on‑month to 1.5 million tonnes, the sharpest decline in a decade after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. The Gulf, which supplies over half of the world’s sulphur, saw exports...
Explainer-Hormuz Crisis Throws Spotlight on World's Largest 'Chokepoint' - the Malacca Strait
The Hormuz shutdown has sharpened focus on the Strait of Malacca, the world’s busiest maritime chokepoint, handling roughly 22% of global trade and 29% of oil flows in 2025—more than the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic rose to over 102,500 vessels...
Outrage After Von Der Leyen Groups Turkey Into Malign Axis With Russia, China
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sparked diplomatic backlash by grouping NATO member Turkey with Russia and China as "malign influences" on the continent. Turkish officials and several left‑wing MEPs denounced the remarks as misleading and divisive, emphasizing Turkey’s...
90 Billion for Ukraine. The EU Has Given the Green Light
The European Union has given preliminary approval for a €90 billion (approximately $98 billion) loan to Ukraine, though each member state must still ratify the financing. The breakthrough follows Hungary’s reversal of its veto after Kyiv agreed to repair the Druzhba oil...
Seeing the Cyber in Economic Statecraft
The blog argues that economic and cyber statecraft have become inseparable, with the U.S. financial system processing over $1 trillion of digital activity each day and facing escalating cyber threats. It highlights how the "defend forward" cyber strategy has moved the...
Pentagon Denies Clearing Hormuz Strait Mines Will Take Six Months
The Pentagon rejected a report that it estimated six months to clear Iranian‑laid mines from the Strait of Hormuz, labeling the claim as cherry‑picked and false. Iran is believed to have placed 20 or more GPS‑guided mines, creating a 1,400‑square‑kilometre...
The ‘Age of Electricity’ Is Here. No One Knows What Comes Next.
The International Energy Agency and Ember report that 2025 was a watershed year for renewable energy, with solar becoming the largest electricity source and renewables surpassing coal for the first time in a century. China and India drove the shift,...
Canadian Pension Funds Pivot Away From Domestic Equities Toward Global and Private Markets
Canadian pension funds are set to trim domestic equity holdings, redirecting capital toward passive global equities and alternative assets. The Crisil Coalition Greenwich study shows 25% of institutions will significantly cut both active and passive Canadian stocks, while roughly 30%...
Escaping the Strait of Hormuz – Not Worth the Risk
The US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has left roughly 1,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers trapped in the Arabian Gulf as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed. A brief window of openness on 17 April prompted a rush of transits, but within 24 hours Indian‑registered...
Panama Canal Prices Surge as Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz — Why Oil Shipping Costs Are Soaring
The Iran‑Israel conflict has crippled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian refiners to seek U.S. Gulf Coast crude via the Panama Canal. Auction bids for canal slots have surged to an average of $837,500, with some offers reaching...
Hormuz Stalls After Iran Made First Ship Seizures
Iran escalated its maritime campaign on Thursday by firing on commercial vessels and seizing two ships, the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, marking the first seizures in eight weeks of conflict. Only one bulk carrier, LB Energy, managed to transit...
Curious Timing: Ukraine Declares Druzhba Pipeline Repaired After New Hungarian PM Elected
Ukraine announced on Tuesday that it has completed repairs to the Druzhba oil pipeline, allowing Russian crude to flow again to Hungary and Slovakia. The restoration comes just days after Peter Magyar was elected prime minister of Hungary, ending Viktor...
Iran War, Oil Shock Fail to Dent India’s Private Sector Growth as April PMI Rises
India’s private‑sector activity accelerated in April, with the HSBC flash Composite PMI climbing to 58.3 from 57.0 in March. Manufacturing led the rebound, posting a PMI of 55.9 and an output index of 59.1, while services modestly rose to a...
India 'Tough Nut to Crack', Says USTR Greer as Negotiators Wrap up Trade Talks Round
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called India a “tough nut to crack” as New Delhi’s delegation wrapped up a three‑day round of talks on a bilateral trade pact. The negotiations focus on India’s long‑standing protection of its agricultural markets, with distillers...
China Is Expanding Its Trade War Toolbox
China has enacted a sweeping industrial and supply‑chain security law that establishes an early‑warning system to monitor disruptions and empowers the government to retaliate against foreign firms perceived as threatening Chinese interests. The regulation gives Beijing the authority to prohibit...
Mint Explainer | Is India's Wheat Export Push a Good Idea?
India has reopened wheat exports, raising the quota to 5 million tonnes after a four‑year hiatus. Record‑high stocks of 21.79 million tonnes and a bumper 2025‑26 harvest have created a surplus that threatens domestic price softness. By shipping grain abroad, the government...
Fertilizer Prices in Context
A new CSIS chart tracks fertilizer, oil and maize prices from 2000, highlighting sharp spikes during four distinct crises: the 2007‑08 food price surge, prolonged droughts, the COVID‑19 pandemic combined with the Ukraine war, and the recent "Epic Fury" weather...
India's Digital Currency Push Targets Its Leaky Welfare System
India’s Reserve Bank is piloting the e‑rupee, a central bank digital currency, to streamline its $80 billion welfare system. The program, run with the World Bank and state partners, targets sectors like farm subsidies and food rationing, with an estimated 10 million...
Decoding the Warsh Testimony: What the Next Fed Chair Actually Said
Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee testimony signals a sweeping Fed regime change. He blames the 2020 “FAIT” framework shift for today’s 25‑30% price surge and proposes a new inflation target, trimmed‑mean data, and the end of forward guidance. Warsh also...
Iron Ore Consolidates as Investors Weigh Higher War-Induced Costs Against Rising Supply
Iron ore prices held steady on April 23 as investors weighed higher freight and input costs from the Iran war against a growing supply outlook. The Dalian Commodity Exchange price stayed at 785.5 yuan (≈$115) per ton, while Singapore’s benchmark hovered just...
A Messy Tariff Refund Process Has Begun. Sorry, Businesses Only for Now
U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched an online portal on Monday to process refunds of roughly $166 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court declared illegal. The system is limited to importers of record—typically businesses—not individual consumers, forcing shoppers to depend...
IMF Misjudges UAE's Need for Bailout
I would be the last person to accuse the IMF of hard headed surveillance of the GCC countries (the IMF treats fiscal and BoP surplus countries as model pupils ... see its treatment of Singapore) But for what it is worth,...
German Chancellor and IEA Discuss War‑driven Energy Risks
Productive bilateral meeting with Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany @bundeskanzler in Berlin We discussed the impacts of the Middle East war on energy markets & economies; @IEA's response to counter supply disruptions; & how to boost industrial competitiveness in this context...
HSBC Downgrades India to 'Underweight' As Oil Shock Clouds Earnings Recovery
HSBC downgraded Indian equities to underweight from neutral, marking its second downgrade in less than a month. The move follows a 42% surge in Brent crude since February, with prices now above $100 a barrel, heightening inflation and growth risks...
Yields Climb as U.S.-Iran Tension Meets PMI Watch
JUST IN: Treasury yields rise amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, with investors eyeing April PMI data.
Manufacturing Prices Surge, Services Prices Remain Flat
🇪🇺 The PMI chart landing on @Lagarde's desk: - big rise in output prices in manufacturing (less than half of the 2022 peak) - very small rise in prices charged in services Consistent with a hold in April, and a cautious stance...
Brent Tops $100 Again Amid Supply Fears After Iran Seizes Vessels in Hormuz
Brent crude futures surged past $100 a barrel on Thursday, reaching $103.40 as Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening supply‑risk concerns. U.S. crude and refined‑product exports climbed to a record 12.88 million barrels per day, up 137,000...
Indian Equities Slide on Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Indian equities slide as financial and auto stocks pull back amid Middle East tensions.
Markets Price Aggressive ECB Hikes Amid Stagflation Risks
ERZ6 still pricing in 60-70bp in ECB hikes this year—in effect still glued to oil prices—even as the services PMIs drop through the trap door opened by Mr. Trump in the Middle East. Stagflation is tricky, and markets still see...
Commodity Traders Post Windfall Gains Amid Iran Conflict-Driven Market Turmoil:
Commodity trading giants Vitol, Trafigura, Glencore and Mercuria have logged multi‑billion‑dollar windfalls as the Iran conflict fuels unprecedented volatility across oil, metals and LNG markets. The crisis has widened regional price differentials, revived storage arbitrage and opened complex sanction‑driven trade...
Energy Shock Hits Industry, Services See Limited Pass‑Through
🇪🇺 Mixed takeaways from euro area PMIs on the pass-through from energy prices. Bad news: a big shock going through industrial supply chains, all the way to output prices. Good news: more limited pass-through to prices charged in services (some in Germany,...
EU Positions Itself as Emerging Geopolitical Commission
So this may indeed turn out to be the "geopolitical Commission" EU working to secure its Western as well as Eastern flank ... 1/2 https://t.co/E5tZDyX9CS
Escape From Hormuz: The Oil Tankers Running the Iranian Gauntlet
Oil tankers continuing to transit the Strait of Hormuz are confronting heightened Iranian threats, prompting insurers to raise coverage costs and shippers to consider longer detours. The U.S. Navy has stepped up escort operations, but the risk of seizure or...
Iran's Oil Still Flowing Despite Blockade, Analysts Misread
Can Iran Keep Pumping? The Blockade’s Impact on Oil Production, Exports, and Storage Analysts missed many facts about Iran's ability to generate revenues (with 4 charts) https://t.co/OARSMvZ93z https://t.co/99em4f6lOY
Yuan's Share of Global FX Trades Climbs to 8.5%
Bloomberg: "The yuan made up 8.5% of global currency transactions including spot, forwards, swaps and options, up from 7% in 2022. That compared with 89% for the dollar, 28.9% for the euro 16.8% for the yen, and 10.2% for the...