Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
UK hot‑rolled coil (HRC) prices are trading at an average €62 per tonne discount to north‑European benchmarks after Tata Steel UK closed its last blast furnace in September 2024. Imports have surged from 770,000 t in 2023 to 1.4 million t in 2025, widening the price gap. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has pushed European prices higher, further expanding the disparity. Traders see arbitrage potential by buying discounted UK coil and reselling it into the EU market.
The claim by @robinbrooks_j & others that the PBOC is intervening to stop the RMB's advance strikes me as a misunderstanding. This is the 7th month of RMB gains. If PBOC is intervening to "stop" CNY rise, it is not...
China’s municipal government paid Olympic skiers Eileen Gu and Beverly Zhu a combined $6.6 million in 2025, highlighting Beijing’s renewed push to lure diaspora talent. The effort builds on the legacy of the Thousand Talents and Qiming programs, which offer generous...
The U.S. Department of Justice filed a civil forfeiture complaint to permanently seize the motor tanker Skipper and its 1.8‑million‑barrel Venezuelan crude cargo. Authorities seized the vessel off Venezuela in December 2025 after it operated without nationality and falsely claimed...
Bitcoin fell about 3% after January's producer‑price index (PPI) posted a 2.9% year‑over‑year rise, outpacing the 2.6% consensus. The surprise was driven by a services‑inflation spike, with trade‑service margins up 2.5%, while consumer‑price inflation (CPI) cooled to 2.4% YoY. The...
Striking that China has taken $2 billion off the table since 2021 while the IMF put $2 billion in ... Talk about not using IMF funds to bailout China back during the pandemic turned out to be just that, talk. You...
Enterprises facing tariff spikes, freight cost surges, and geopolitical fragmentation must separate measurable (quantitative) shocks from structural (qualitative) risks. Leaders gain advantage by tightening controllable levers—pricing discipline, bonded inventory, freight timing, and proactive supplier negotiations—rather than blaming external volatility. A...
The Reserve Bank of India introduced tighter rules on external commercial borrowings to curb volatility in the capital account, even as the current account remains stable. While gross foreign direct investment (FDI) has averaged $78 billion annually, equity repatriation has surged,...
Bill Campbell argues that deglobalization is creating a secular convergence between emerging‑market and developed‑market sovereign debt. While investors remain fixated on U.S. policy, structural shifts have strengthened EM fiscal positions and left DM yields underpriced. This mispricing opens a yield‑enhancing,...
Indonesia’s new trade agreement obliges the country to import $15 billion of U.S. oil and gas each year, contradicting President Prabowo Subianto’s pledge for energy self‑sufficiency. The deal was signed to sidestep tariffs that were later nullified, leaving Indonesia locked into...
Statistics Canada’s Q1 2026 Business Conditions survey shows 59.2% of firms expect cost‑related obstacles, down slightly from Q4 2025, while optimism rises to 73.1% for the next year. Inflation remains the top concern, cited by 40.8% of businesses, especially in...
Maersk announced it will reroute several U.S. and other services from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope, citing unforeseen security constraints in the region. The changes affect both ME11 and MECL routes, with one westbound and two...
Gold surged past the $5,200 per ounce mark, targeting a seventh consecutive monthly gain as investors seek safety amid escalating US‑Iran tensions. The geopolitical flashpoint has revived haven demand, outweighing the muted impact of a weaker US Producer Price Index....
Global hedge funds are redirecting capital into Australian government bonds as AI‑driven equity valuations lose steam. Inflows to Australian bond funds topped AUD 4 billion in 2025, the strongest in four years, driven by the country’s 4.7% 10‑year yield—the highest among developed...
Honduras’ new president Nasry Asfura has launched a suite of early reforms focused on fiscal austerity, expanding the Temporary Import Regime and re‑joining the World Bank’s ICSID to boost investor confidence. His administration secured a meeting with former President Donald...
The 2026 hotel market forecast from STR and Tourism Economics shows uneven growth across regions. Europe’s RevPAR is projected to rise to 1.1% driven by the Milan‑Cortina Olympics and luxury demand in Paris, while 11 European markets face occupancy pressure...
🔥 My colleague Meagan Martin-Schoenberger has updated the producer price index data released today. The index showed the largest increase in core goods (wx food and energy) prices since early 2022; profit margins soared to their highest on record, with...
The framing here just seems so clear to me. AI buildout requires a ton of real assets and commodities to complete Cyclical re acceleration is bullish commodities Everyone is overweight tech and AI is now questioning the validity of the multiples...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
US producer‑price index jumped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, outpacing expectations and reigniting concerns that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. The surprise lift pushed Dow futures down over 500 points and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield below the 4% threshold, suggesting markets...
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
Scott @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport kindly forward this to Slink, @saraeisen (who has expressed the view that inflation is declining) and your panelists who mostly insist as part of their bullish stance on equities that inflation has been conquered. From Peter Boockvar...
PPI just printed 0.8% vs 0.3% expected. Let that sink in. Producers are paying MORE. That cost gets passed to YOU. This is the hottest PPI in over 6 months and it just killed every rate cut fantasy on Wall Street. Buckle up —...
Barclays shares slipped 1.6% after reports it faces roughly £600 million exposure to the collapsed UK specialist mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS). The fallout also highlighted potential losses for Santander and Jefferies, underscoring broader concerns about the fast‑growing private‑credit market....
Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Canada is looking for new partners everywhere. Carney has already visited China, departed for India today, and will head next to Australia and Japan. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE US. https://t.co/UHsis6akCV
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.) The questions are: 1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign...
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile,...
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: February 27, 2026 - Global Extensions..." Foreign markets remain on fire... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/VFNIukbgod https://t.co/jRyXRjyXsc
It is gaslighting to say things are rosy; it is gaslighting to say things are terrible. Some govt policies will take months/years to bear fruit -depending on implementation and follow-through which are far from guaranteed.
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
The Canadian economy ended the year on a softer note as a sharp decline in business inventories drove down real gross domestic product by an annualized 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The decline was partially offset by increased household spending,...
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
The Blind Spot's resident Spaniard says Brits shouldn't worry about Gibraltar turning Spanish. Were that the case, it would set off a series of dominoes that could devastate both Spain and Morocco. https://t.co/gFok91QaFp
Feeling listless and disjointed as I await the inevitable barrage of "#MMT was right all along" posts now that 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4%... https://t.co/ANQCCAXJms
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
The PPI is not falling, it has become sticky. It means rates stay higher. That will slow things down. Thus bond yields are falling. Makes sense? God knows https://t.co/XxE0jqRJ3L
"Many sellers simply don’t have much of a choice but to pass on the cost of tariffs. 'At a certain point—because retail is, as you know, a mid-single digit operating margin business—if people’s costs go up by 10%, there aren’t...
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
China Central Bank Moves to Tame Yuan Rally—China’s central bank on Friday moved to combat a rally in the yuan by making it cheaper for importers to buy dollars and sell the Chinese currency. @RebeccaYFeng https://t.co/uVx5NuUmDE
Trade is among people, and retaliation can be too: "Anger over President Trump’s trade policy has fueled a notable increase in Canadian spending on domestic products and local tourism, according to research from the Bank of Canada." https://t.co/Nmzo5Yn2ay
Bear markets happen more often than many realize, and most people will have to navigate multiple severe downturns during their investing years. https://t.co/3M4SDMlWOY
"Meanwhile, new questions about what the tariff regime will look like after July, when Trump’s new global duties expire, could again put many business investments on hold, limiting the productive effect of any more immediate influx of cash." https://t.co/PeFBYyWQqH https://t.co/0oVZHlSMF9
The debasement trade is about markets searching for safe havens from debt monetization. That's driving up safe haven currencies. Norwegian Krone just took the lead (orange), while Swedish Krona (red) is in second place. Swiss Franc (black) is in third... https://t.co/hjA5jhrvvn...
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
US January Producer Price Index prints at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected - previously 0.4% m/m Core #PPI at 0.8% vs expected 0.3% - previously 0.6% m/m Core PPI at 3.6% vs 3.0% expected - previously 3.3% y/y/ Headline PPI 2.9% vs expected 2.6%...
AI will not materialize into prolonged deflation as governments will be forced to act. A few weeks ago in my weekly Scouting the Tape piece I wrote the below. Give my presentation from last summer's Monetarium event a watch. https://t.co/FFulg5I5cg https://t.co/opgAb1hH2N
The process and legal fights over paying back import taxes will help shove tariffs back into voters’ minds, as well as provide them an excruciatingly detailed civics lesson in who literally pays the levies. (Hint: it’s not foreign governments.) https://t.co/N8dOe6rapr
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
With all the chatter about AI disruption, I would have expected lower breakeven inflation to be driving the fall in nominal Treasury yields, since AI is a deflationary shock. But that's not what's happening at all. It's real yields that...
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
