Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, emphasizing energy security and confirming that the Ruwais LNG export facility remains on schedule. He reassured that construction has not been halted despite regional instability. Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil means a potential Hormuz closure could spike domestic fuel prices and threaten the prime minister’s inflation‑control agenda. The visit also included talks with Japan’s trade minister and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister to deepen regional cooperation.
To all my Economics / Wellbeing / Happiness / Flourishing expert friends, what are your thoughts on GoogleDeep Mind's search for a "Director, AGI Economics?" This is from the Job Application: "Artificial Intelligence could be one of humanity’s most useful...
The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...
This appears to be the UAE tug Mussafah 2. Reports are that all eight crewmembers have been lost. The tug was responding to the containership Safeen Prestige which was in distress after being attacked by Iran. This...
The February nonfarm payroll report showed an unexpected 92,000‑job decline, with truck transportation employment slipping by 500 to 1,462,500 positions. This marks a 22,100‑job shortfall compared with a year earlier and a net loss of 4,700 jobs since December. Warehouse...
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
In a recent CNN interview, political analyst Hajjar Chemali warned that Iran’s economy is spiraling toward collapse. He highlighted hyperinflation, a depreciating rial, and shrinking oil revenues as core drivers. Chemali also noted rising unemployment and mounting public unrest as...
US retail sales slipped 0.2% month‑on‑month in January, bringing total sales to $733.5 billion, though they remain 3.2% higher than a year ago. The decline outperformed the modest growth forecast but was attributed to severe winter weather curbing brick‑and‑mortar traffic. Health‑care,...
California functions as an “energy island” because it lacks crude‑oil pipelines linking it to major domestic sources such as the Permian Basin. The state now depends on marine imports of heavier Middle‑East crude, which are processed by refineries tuned to...
In an interview with @nytimes, @Austan_Goolsbee describes February's jobs report as a "tough" one, although he stressed the importance of not overreacting to one month of data. He conceded that the combination of a weakening labor market and higher inflation risks...
Weak February employment data, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, coincided with oil prices climbing to $90 a barrel and U.S. gas prices jumping 10%. The mixed signals have revived investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could pivot to a...
U.S. manufacturers are accelerating reshoring and onshoring, with Apple committing over $500 billion and Johnson & Johnson earmarking $55 billion for domestic production through 2029. Companies cite supply‑chain resilience, tariff pressures, and ESG goals as drivers, while surveys show cost remains the dominant factor...
CMA CGM announced a new standalone service linking India directly to the U.S. West Coast, extending its Pearl River Express loop. The weekly rotation will call at Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Karachi and Colombo, using a fleet of 13 vessels sized between 10,000...
Tesla has emptied its Canadian Model 3 inventory and shipped the U.S.-built units back to the United States. The shift follows Canada’s March 1 tariff reduction, which lowered the duty on Chinese‑built EVs to 6.1 % and opened a 49,000‑unit annual quota. Tesla...
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, choking a key route for Middle‑East gas shipments, while Qatar has temporarily halted its LNG production, tightening global supply. Spot LNG prices have spiked above $30 per million British thermal units, prompting buyers to...
February’s jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 positions, with the private sector shedding 86,000 jobs and government payrolls down 6,000. The headline unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while the broader U6 underemployment measure fell slightly to 7.9%....
Senegal announced the closure of 19 government agencies, eliminating roughly 1,000 public‑sector jobs. The move is projected to save at least 55 billion CFA francs over the next three years. The decision comes as the country's debt surged to 132% of...
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
U.S. non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% and prompting analysts to anticipate further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index (DXY) slipped to 99.063 from 99.308 as markets digested the weaker labor...
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan designates Hong Kong as the vanguard of its “strong financial nation” strategy, shifting the city from a neutral capital bridge to a core component of Beijing’s financial security architecture. The 2026‑27 Hong Kong budget formalizes this...
The article pits India’s Digital Rupee against the EU’s Digital Euro, evaluating which central bank digital currency (CBDC) best serves commercial users. It notes the Digital Rupee’s near‑real‑time settlement, open‑source APIs, and early integration with Indian e‑commerce giants, while the...
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong? ▶️Baltic Exchange’s MEG-China VLCC index reaches new high of $485,959 per day; MEG-Singapore VLCC index is at $507,709 per day ▶️VLCCs are loading Saudi crude at Red Sea pipeline...
The Supreme Court’s February 20 decision barred the president from imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ending the Trump administration’s primary trade‑leverage tool. Until that ruling, the administration had clinched eight reciprocal trade agreements and ten framework deals...
Capital.com reported a 49% jump in active retail traders and a 73% rise in total trading volume on 2 March as the Middle East conflict intensified. Oil surged to become the platform’s second‑most‑traded instrument, with new oil traders up 1,255% and...
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Chicago Booth's Anil Kashyap re:Fed's Mary Daly&Anna Paulson: "If there's anybody from the WH here, I think you should have confidence that you have 2 very thoughtful people looking at the numbers...would be a shame if that's not true 2...
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four‑day visit to India in late February marked a pragmatic reset in bilateral ties, delivering a suite of agreements across energy, AI, defense, space and critical minerals. The centerpiece is a $1.91 billion uranium supply contract...
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
The Iran‑Hamas war is unlikely to dent global GDP, as the Gulf accounts for only 2‑3% of world output. However, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a quarter of seaborne oil and one‑fifth of LNG flow—poses a serious chokepoint for...
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
Jake puts it crisply: >If discovery and early development move abroad, the nation risks locking in a massive trade imbalance: Foreign countries develop the drugs, and Americans pay the bills.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced plans to launch four container freight futures contracts on April 7, pending regulatory approval. The contracts will be U.S.-denominated, cash‑settled, and indexed to the New York Shipping Exchange’s Freight Indices covering routes between Asia, Europe and the United States....
At a time when markets are pushing back Fed cut odds because of the oil spike, seeing jobs data that demands rate cuts leaves everyone unhappy. Stagflation, directionally. Not there yet but pointing that way.
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Costco CEO Ron Vachris announced that any tariff refunds resulting from the Supreme Court's invalidation of Trump-era IEEPA duties will be passed to members via lower prices and better value. The court decision forced Customs to liquidate pending entries, creating...
I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a big chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to cause a global crisis. Thanks to @SoumayaKeynes for having me on...
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
So do the cattle look at the inflationary trade taking place and go higher or do they look at the equities and the consumer being hurt by higher energy products and a slowing economy possibly and come under pressure....
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
The War Continues to Roil the Markets: The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen,...
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
