Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Credit Flows Jump 38% in FY26 as RBI Easing Boosts Demand
Credit flows in India surged 38% in FY26, reaching ₹44.6 lakh crore (≈$537 bn), after an 8% contraction the previous year. The RBI’s easing cycle—125 bps rate cuts, a 100 bps CRR reduction and ₹8.8 lakh crore liquidity infusion—pushed lending rates down to 9%, reviving demand. Outstanding commercial‑sector credit crossed the ₹300 lakh crore (≈$3.6 tn) threshold for the first time, growing 15.8% year‑on‑year. Non‑bank financing and foreign direct investment also posted double‑digit gains.
Warsh’s Fed Balance Sheet Trim Risks Liquidity Crunch
In other Fed news, my latest on how Warsh plans to shrink the central bank's footprint in financial markets "It’s very clear that the balance sheet cannot be immediately reduced without causing a liquidity crunch that nobody would like," says Darrell...
US Slaps 123% Anti-Dumping Duty on Indian Solar Imports
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti‑dumping duty of 123.04% on solar cells and modules imported from India. The duty, added to existing countervailing tariffs of over 125%, pushes the total tariff burden above 200%, effectively sidelining Indian...
When Tech Titans Outpace Nations: A New Global Power
what happens when tech companies become more powerful than countries? imagine a supercharged east india company, shifting global fortunes, and military influence... a little forecasting with @trevornoah for @whatnowpodcast
Customs Designation Triggers QSL Terminal Project in Quebec City
Canada’s customs agency granted the Port of Quebec preliminary authority to receive international marine containers, prompting terminal operator QSL to move ahead with a capacity expansion. Minister Joël Lightbound announced the designation of the Quebec City port on the St....
Destroying Tuapse Beaches Could Save 2,250 Ukrainian Lives
Grok thinks Tuapse represents roughly $1.5 billion/year in tourism, almost entirely from Russians. Let's suppose that this oil spill results in 10% of those tourist dollars getting spent outside of Russia instead, and let's suppose that 30% of those dollars were...
Trade Experts Outline Thai Export Scenarios
Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office outlined three export scenarios for 2024, ranging from an 8% gain to a 3% contraction, driven by geopolitical tensions, global growth and inflation. In the best‑case, AI‑related electronics could lift exports to $367 billion, while...
Southern Hotels Wary of Low Season
Hotel operators in Thailand’s southern provinces, especially Phuket and Krabi, are bracing for a low‑season revenue dip as the war in the Middle East depresses demand and triggers flight cancellations. April occupancy in Phuket lingered at 50‑60%, while the Middle...
Struggling to Decode Fog of War
The Strait of Hormuz crisis entered a new, volatile phase as Iran's IRGC seized two European tankers, pushing Brent crude above $106 per barrel. The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast to 3.1% and lifted inflation expectations to 4.4%, underscoring...
Office Outlines Various Scenarios for Exports
Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office outlined three export scenarios for 2024, ranging from an 8% rise to a 3% contraction. The best‑case assumes AI‑driven demand and a de‑escalation of the Middle East conflict, projecting $367 billion in exports. The base...
Regional Equity Investors Find Little to Cheer
Thai equities remained under pressure as the SET index slipped 1.8% to 1,456.10 points, driven by foreign selling of 5.86 bn baht and concerns over an upcoming MSCI rebalance that could trim the market’s weight. Retail investors provided a modest cushion,...
Colombia’s Oil Industry Eyes Comeback as $100 Crude Revives Investment Case
Colombia’s oil output has slumped to a multi‑year low of about 735,000 barrels per day, driven by left‑wing policies that banned fracking, halted new licences and raised taxes. A sudden Brent price surge above $100 per barrel, sparked by geopolitical...
Asia Already Serves as Major Dollar Funding Hub
Don't get it -- Asia is already a big dollar funding center. China's state banks have a ton of dollars ... As to Hong Kong banks As for that matter do firms like TSMC and Samsung at current chip...
Iran Keeps Exporting One Million Barrels Daily Despite Blockade
despite the us blockade, iran remains on track to export about one million barrels of oil per day in april. half of what they exported in march. but still a lot of money.
Iran’s Top Diplomat Travels to Pakistan for Ceasefire Talks with the U.S.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Pakistan on a diplomatic tour that includes Oman and Russia, aiming to restart a second round of US‑Iran ceasefire negotiations. Pakistan is pressing Washington to send a delegation, hoping to revive momentum stalled...
Two Months In, Hormuz Closure Signals Escalating Fallout
This week marks the war’s two-month anniversary. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed most of that time. But we’re only now transitioning from the f*ck around phase to the find out phase. Read my thoughts about the fallout headed...
Witkoff and Kushner Heade to Pakistan Saturday, JD Vance on Standby
U.S. envoys Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Pakistan for a face‑to‑face meeting aimed at breaking the current diplomatic deadlock with Iran. The White House says the trip, with Senator JD Vance on standby in Washington, hopes to...
ECB Sets Payment Standards for Digital Euro Rollout
The European Central Bank has signed agreements with three standards bodies to establish open technical standards for the digital euro, keeping the project on track for a pilot in 2027 and a potential launch in 2029. The standards—CPACE for contactless...
Disrupted: Food Supply For 3.5+ Billion Depends On Nitrogen Fertilizer
The ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has halted shipments from the Persian Gulf, which produces roughly 35% of global nitrogen fertilizer. With no strategic stockpiles and the northern‑hemisphere planting season underway, farmers face a sudden shortfall of this...
Rubio, EU Sign MoU to Diversify Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic sign MoU says It will 'be important for economic vibrancy of global economy', 'We need diversity in supply chains of critical minerals'.
USDJPY Falls to New Lows. Retests 100 Hour MA
USDJPY is testing the 100‑hour moving average at 159.347, signaling fresh bearish pressure. The 10‑year Treasury yield has slipped about two basis points to roughly 4.30%, providing a modest floor that tempers the dollar's decline. A break below the 200‑hour...
Global Bonds Set for Worst Week in a Month as U.S.-Iran Risks Rise
Global bond markets are set for their worst week in a month as heightened U.S.-Iran tensions push yields higher across major economies. Two‑year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 3.81%, up 11 basis points, while the UK’s two‑year benchmark rose 26...
Social Security Announces 2.8% COLA, Yet Retirees Still Feel Inflation Pinch
Social Security revealed a 2.8% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2026, boosting monthly checks but leaving many retirees short after Medicare Part B premium hikes and a 20% erosion of purchasing power since 2010.
GBP/USD Holds Above Two‑Week Low as Iran‑Driven USD Demand Persists
United Overseas Bank strategists say GBP/USD is consolidating between 1.3475 and 1.3530 after slipping to a two‑week low. The pair’s flat momentum reflects safe‑haven buying of the dollar amid heightened Iran‑related tensions, keeping the pound just above its recent trough.
BP vs Shell: Which Oil Giant Offers Better Returns as Prices Rally?
Private investors are snapping up oil stocks as Brent crude slipped below $90, prompting a 7.36% drop in BP and a 5.57% fall in Shell. With Morgan Stanley projecting Brent at $110 in Q2 and BP’s trading desk delivering “exceptional”...
Middle East War Tightens Mining Inputs, Driving Diesel, Sulphur and Aluminum Supply Crunch
The war in the Middle East has sharply reduced seaborne sulphur and diesel supplies, pushing sulphur prices to $1,200‑$1,400 per ton and inflating diesel costs. China’s acid export halt and attacks on Gulf aluminium smelters further strain copper, cobalt and...
When Trump Met Escalation Dominance:
In April 2025 President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs that peaked at 125% on Chinese goods, prompting an immediate Chinese retaliation of equal magnitude. The extreme duties quickly choked U.S. supply chains, causing port congestion, retailer shortages and factory shutdowns, especially for...
WTI Crude Futures Hover Near $95.60 Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
WTI crude futures traded near $95.60 during Asian hours on Friday, trimming earlier losses as geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz raised supply‑risk concerns. The price rebound follows U.S. interceptions of Iranian supertankers and stalled US‑Iran peace talks, reigniting...
How a Swap Line for Persian Gulf Allies Would Break with the Past
The Federal Reserve is considering extending dollar swap lines to Persian Gulf allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, a departure from its traditional use as a crisis‑management tool for G7 and select emerging markets. Treasury Secretary...
U.S. Treasury Announces $183 Billion in 2‑, 5‑ and 7‑Year Note Auctions Amid Weak Demand
The U.S. Treasury disclosed plans to auction $69 billion of two‑year, $70 billion of five‑year and $44 billion of seven‑year Treasury notes, all attracting below‑average demand. Results for the 2‑ and 5‑year issues will be released Monday, with the 7‑year results due Tuesday,...
US Futures Slip on Iran Talks, Boosting Pressure on Asian Markets as SK Hynix Posts Record Profit
US equity futures slipped 0.1% as Iran‑U.S. negotiations stalled, reigniting concerns over Middle‑East volatility. The dip hit Asian markets hard, even as South Korea’s SK Hynix posted record quarterly profits, underscoring a split between macro risk and strong corporate earnings...
Europe Needs U.S. Gas. Washington Keeps Hesitating.
In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe faced a looming gas shortfall that was quickly mitigated by a surge in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. American LNG exports to the EU rose from 18.9 bcm in 2021...
Markets React to Iran Tensions and Rate Uncertainty
Jeremy Siegel, Wharton emeritus professor and senior economist at WisdomTree, says that despite heightened Iran‑related geopolitical risk, lingering Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, and rapid AI sector expansion, U.S. equities remain surprisingly resilient. He points to strong earnings quality and diversified...
The Great Un-Bundling: How Maturing Indian Markets Are Shrugging Off Concentration
The National Stock Exchange’s April Market Pulse report shows Indian equities shifting from a commodity‑led base to financial‑sector dominance, with financials now accounting for 25% of market capitalisation. Materials and energy shares have receded, while information technology grew to 8%...
Fed Independence at Risk: Future Chair Could Face Jail
The important macroeconomic question isn't: Have charges against Powell been dropped? It's this: Can the next Fed chair make an unpopular decision without fear of jail? The President has made no promises he won't jail the next guy, so no, the...
Fed Chair Warns Decisions Echo Across Global Economy
Fed chair: one of the rare jobs where a bad call can echo through the entire world economy. So yes, I am old-fashioned enough to think boyish good looks and "no regrets" might be underqualified.
Fed and Central Banks Ignoring Money Supply Theory
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the Fed's DISREGARD for the Quantity Theory of Money: “The Fed doesn't look at changes in the money supply, & the Fed’s not alone. Most central banks discard the money supply." Central bankers should give Sekerke &...
US Market Not Top‑Heavy; Dollar Still Reserve Power
Two myths that aren't true 1.) The US stock market is top heavy 2.) The US Dollar is losing reserve status Neither are remotely true, yet we hear them all the time https://t.co/ONyZtCOXpe
China Bans Outbound Investments, Targeting the White House
pretty funny how we spent so much time arguing for outbound investment restrictions and then the chinese govt goes and does it for the white house...
Europe’s High Energy Prices Cause Rationing, Not Demand Destruction
Goldman says Europe is seeing “demand destruction” from high energy prices. Not quite — this is rationing, not demand responding to price. That distinction matters more than it sounds. 🧵
Cease‑fire Stalls Dollar, Hints at Upcoming Decline
Last week’s (week of 4/13) cease fire in the Middle East helped keep the bond market calm and the dollar from surpassing resistance at 100-10. The fact that the dollar’s gains were less than impressive suggests that the next major...
Chinese Tariffs Spurred Crucial Foreign Tech Investment
Correct Chinese tariffs were instrumental in creating the incentives for European, US and Japanese investment in China back when China needed foreign investment for technology and know how transfer
USDJPY: The Overlooked Market Driver You Need
I think USDJPY is one of the most important variables in the market right now that is flying under the radar. I discuss it in length here👇
Hidden Forces Eroding the Foundation of Dollar Dominance
Interesting thread that makes the case for what @sobel_mark calls the "termites feasting away at the foundation of dollar dominance". Should give us pause... (1/2)
Cleveland Fed Warned Trimmed Mean Understates Inflation, Critics Ignored
The skew issue was pointed out by the Cleveland Fed back in early 2022 as a reason the trimmed mean was understating inflation back then. Someone wanting the top job who is trashing current measures & methods probably should have...
Tooze Delivers Concise History of the Exchange Stabilization Fund
Tooze is on a roll -- great instant history of the Exchange Stabilization Fund 1/2
Indonesia's Three Straits Outpace Pre‑War Hormuz Traffic
Very interesting table from @ByMeganONeil on some other maritime chokepoints that could theoretically become toll ways. Interesting how Indonesia is adjacent to three distinct Straits that each have more ship traffic than Hormuz did pre-war. https://t.co/FpJ3aWYqyd
Warsh Didn't Vote Against Fed at Every Crisis Meeting
I have plenty of criticisms of Kevin Warsh, but it's factually untrue that he voted against the Fed at every meeting during the financial crisis.
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
Eurozone Prices Surge Amid Second Month of Iran War
Euro zone price spike seen surging higher in 2nd nonth of Iran war https://t.co/Zs6xbpsYFw via @CraigStirling https://t.co/ATtxy6wpPJ