Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
New Zealand faces a shifting global order as Donald Trump’s America‑first agenda threatens the rules‑based system the country has long relied on. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for middle powers to devise practical “workarounds” highlights the urgency for smaller states to secure technology supply chains without defaulting to the US or China. Wellington is turning to regional partners—India, South Korea and ASEAN—to build a diversified tech network, while the European Union emerges as a potential anchor through its regulatory clout and semiconductor investments. The evolving middle‑power coalition aims to protect NZ’s strategic autonomy and economic resilience.
GCC banks have shown resilience as the region endures fresh hostilities between Israel, the United States and Iran. Central Bank of the UAE reported banking assets above AED 5.42 trillion with a 17 % capital adequacy ratio and 146.6 % liquidity coverage ratio, both...
Indonesia has signed a memorandum of understanding to import roughly 2 million tonnes of wheat annually from the United States, representing about 17% of its total wheat demand. The deal effectively earmarks a fifth of the market for U.S. exporters, removing...
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that all importers of record subject to IEEPA duties are eligible for refunds after the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs. Courts have ordered Customs to begin issuing refunds, and more than 900...
The US dollar still dominates Africa’s trade, finance and debt, but China’s renminbi is gaining traction. African policymakers have launched the Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to enable local‑currency cross‑border payments, yet adoption remains modest. Since 2024, renminbi usage...
The First Nations Major Projects Coalition (FNMPC) is championing Indigenous equity ownership as a catalyst for faster mining and energy project approvals across Canada. By providing technical, regulatory and financial support, the coalition helps First Nations move from consultation to...
Oil prices spiked above $80 a barrel after Iran‑related tensions, prompting the White House Treasury to signal possible futures market intervention. The announcement eased oil back below $80, allowing equities to recover modestly, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and...
Analyst Lars Jensen told the TPM 26 conference that the Middle‑East war, which has shut the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, poses a problem for container shipping but falls short of pandemic‑scale disruption. He emphasized that while the conflict will...
Operation Epic Fury, the United States’ six‑day campaign against Iran, is already reshaping Middle‑East power dynamics. The strikes have degraded Iran’s ability to fund and direct Islamist proxies such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, weakening their operational capacity. With Tehran’s...
EU member states are beginning to enact the G7 side‑by‑side agreement that places the United States’ tax carve‑out on equal footing with the OECD global minimum tax framework. The move translates a political commitment into national legislation, offering the first...
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut on March 4, with only five vessels recorded, while traffic through Bab el‑Mandeb surged to 23 crossings, outpacing recent averages. Suez Canal activity fell to 23 transits, below trend levels, and diversions around the...
The U.S. State Department issued a Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” advisory for Cyprus amid escalating Israel‑Iran tensions, warning American tourists of regional security risks. Cyprus, an EU island whose tourism sector contributes more than 10% of GDP and supports tens of...
Uzbekistan’s annual inflation ticked up to 7.3% in February, a modest 0.1 percentage‑point rise from January and still 2.8 points below the 10.1% recorded a year earlier. Monthly inflation eased to 0.6% month‑on‑month, while core inflation rose to 0.5% month‑on‑month, pushing...
A RELEX survey finds 86% of supply‑chain leaders say recent tariffs and broader economic pressures have already disrupted operations. More than half of respondents have raised consumer prices, while 24% are shifting sourcing away from affected regions. Companies are split...
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has completed base‑year revisions for the CPI and GDP and is now turning to high‑frequency economic indicators. A trial Index of Services Production (ISP) will be released in 2026, supported by a...
India’s banana exports, worth roughly ₹3,500 crore annually, are being hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockage has stranded 1,500–2,000 containers, valued at up to ₹200 crore, just as Maharashtra ramps up shipments for Ramzan demand across the...
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Escalating conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States is disrupting key air and maritime corridors in the Persian Gulf, notably the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions are lengthening transit times, raising freight costs, and forcing carriers like DHL to...
Hungary has secured a guarantee from Russia to resume crude deliveries, yet the Druzhba pipeline remains idle for both Hungary and Slovakia. The EU stepped in to mediate the dispute, but no operational agreement has been reached. The suspension persists...
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Pim van Mourik Broekman outlines the Euro credit market’s current landscape, highlighting overweight financials and utilities versus underweight industrials. He warns that geopolitical tensions and divergent central‑bank policies—particularly the ECB’s dovish stance against the Fed’s tightening—could steepen the yield curve. Valuations...
Around two dozen Democratic‑led states have filed a lawsuit challenging President Trump’s new 15% global tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The states argue the president exceeds his authority, noting that Section 122 was designed for narrow...
Illicit cryptocurrency activity hit a record $154 billion in 2025, driven largely by a 694% year‑over‑year surge in sanctions‑evasion flows to prohibited entities. Nation‑states such as Russia, North Korea and Iran leveraged on‑chain tokens and stablecoins to bypass financial restrictions, while...
The United States and its allies are warning that the Iran‑Israel conflict could lift oil prices to $80‑plus per barrel, creating a lucrative window for Russia’s sanctioned oil stockpiles. Russia, facing dwindling revenues after years of sanctions, now eyes the...
Seafarers can now refuse to sail through the Middle East Gulf after the threat level was raised to its highest, according to the International Transport Workers’ Federation and the International Bargaining Forum. The agreement allows crew to decline voyages in...
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Iran's retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil shipments. The shutdown immediately disrupted energy‑intensive sectors in the region, notably petrochemicals, fertilizers and aluminum, curtailing...
Macro: political risk rises after $220M DHS ad probe. Key: high-profile Noem campaign, bipartisan scrutiny. Risks: reputational, budget cuts. Trade insight: trim exposure to govt comms suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
On The Climate Brink, my latest post is on what the war in Iran tells us about the hidden costs of fossil fuels https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-war-in-iran-shows-us-another
Apple has begun blocking U.S. iPhone users from downloading or updating any ByteDance‑owned apps that are intended for the Chinese market, including Douyin, Doubao, and Fanqie Novel. The restriction, enforced through on‑device geolocation checks, follows the Protecting Americans from Foreign...
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
On March 5, 2026 Ukraine announced the return of 200 prisoners of war in a new exchange with Russia. The group includes combatants seized during the 2022 siege of Mariupol, highlighting the lingering human cost of that battle. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted on...
Guest post by @Petercontibrown on three potential paths for a new Fed-Treasury accord. https://t.co/99ynaEpsMi @NickTimiraos @colbyLsmith @amacker @vtg2 @senoj_erialc https://t.co/xKOGn0fS5W
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that the current turmoil in the Middle East stems from a systematic erosion of international law. She blamed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for emboldening other actors, and singled out China’s expansionist moves in...
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Everyone is trying to explain the mystery of why the job market is weak for college grads, most blaming AI. But that IS NOT THE MYSTERY. The mystery is why is it weak for young workers of ALL EDUCATION LEVELS...
In her 2026 Global Risk Lecture, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the world is shifting from a measurable‑risk environment to genuine uncertainty driven by rapid AI adoption and escalating geopolitical fragmentation. She cited estimates that AI could add up...
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
There is a lot to be learned from markets following the Russia-Ukraine invasion, except this conflict is larger and more complex. Russia (140M ppl) invaded Ukraine (40M ppl). This conflict involves more countries, supply chains, resources and critical geography.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
While the CIA arms Iranian Kurds in Iraq, Turkey is in the middle of disarmament talks with the PKK. I wonder what Erdoğan thinks about the latest US entanglement with the Kurds? https://t.co/iaq2Xp2XeS
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Why are Europe’s rigid labor markets so bad? They turn a flow into a stock, which generates not great reactions to demand shocks. https://t.co/TqgDgtU9nj
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
